Blair – Australia 2025

@nether portal Labor currently have 2 women in a caucus with 8 qld mps. Therefore 2 mps needed to go. Neumann was protected by albo from the quotas in order to hold the seat. Even if the new member for Moreton is a woman Labor will only have 3 out of 8 assuming no other seats are won. Therefore in 2028 another man will need to vacate. Even if they gain Brisbane 4 out of 9 is still not 50%.

And the the qld will move a heap of Ipswich into Blair which would then take in parts of Fisher or longman making Blair likely notionally linp

Sry that should readin the redistribution will move a heap ofipswich out of blair into oxley

I’m moving this to a Toss-up the left right split is 53-47 so if they can get some recovery and preferncr discipline they could win this

LNP is running Carl Mutzelburg, reports had been LNP wanted to run former Senator Joanna Lindgren.
https://online.lnp.org.au/carlmutzelburg
Not a bad idea to run someone with German ancestry here, the Ipswich hinterland was heavily settled by Germans, they’re still there, likely one reason Neumann wasn’t forced to stand down for a female candidate.

I’d be surprised if his German ancestry was 1% of 1% of the decision-making matrix behind his ancestry.

*behind his selection as a candidate, I should say. For both candidates.

1% of 1% is stretching it, Real Talk. I know the area a little, here’s the list of the MLAs for Ipswich West, which iis in Blair:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Ipswich_West
Of those Paff [Pfaff] is a German name, Wendt is a Prussian name [the Wends lived there, Zanow [Zahnow] is also an Eastern German name, as is Neumann.
The old State electorate of Somerset is also part of Blair, was represented by Bill Gunn, his wife’s surname was Geissman and Harold Richter before that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Somerset#:~:text=Somerset%20was%20an%20electoral%20district,Queensland%20from%201950%20to%201992.&text=
Boonah is also a German area, so i’d say picking a German to run against another German in a German area wasn’t a coincidence.

I don’t think having German ancestry or a German surname were factors in preselection. They are probably more of a coincidence.

Ipswich and Lockyer Valley became home for many German migrants in the 19th century. A lot of the settlements had German names but became anglicised due to anti-German sentiments during WWI.

Gympie the sole reason for protecting Neumann was because Labor would likely lose this seat without him. In any case should Labor hold this this time the redistribution will make it notionally liberal and he won’t hold it next time. And I don’t think he will be protected from gender quotas unless Labor is able to make some gains

Yeah I agree with @Real Talk and @Votante, these candidates having German ancestry is a complete coincidence. And I seriously doubt it anything to sway voters in Blair.

And yeah Shayne Neumann’s ancestry has absolutely nothing to do with him being preselected again. It was a captain’s call from Albo, because Labor will need his personal vote to retain the seat in unfavourable political conditions.

There is a large German community in Blair I should note. 8.3% of the seat’s residents are of German ancestry (making it the fifth most common ancestry after English, Australian, Scottish and Irish).

However, it’s also worth noting that German is not in the top six most spoken languages in this seat (English, Samoan, Punjabi, Malayalam, Tagalog and Hindi), nor is Germany or Austria not in the top six countries of birth in this seat (Australia, New Zealand, England, India, the Philippines and Samoa).

This whole German thing is without doubt the biggest irrelevant rabbit hole that has ever been seen on the Tallyroom.

Lets get back to the core issue – is Shane Neumann in trouble or not?

I’m pretty redistribution would make the seat solely within Ipswich

Darth Vader February 28, 2025 at 9:23 pm
*Gympie the sole reason for protecting Neumann was because Labor would likely lose this seat without him.*
Sure, and why would that be? Because there are many voters of German heritage throughout in the seat?
Otherwise, where does his personal vote come from?
If it’s just Labor Superfans, why not retire him for a quota pick and keep Perrett in Moreton?

Caleb the deficit in qld is on the south side of the brisbane river meaning it will lose parts of Ipswich. If it were to gain a seat then it would be more within Ipswich as the new seat would be on the north side where the surplus is

Because it’s his personal vote that’s likely gonna hold the seat is on a much smaller margin then moreton.

@redistributed I’m saying he is this seat will be close. If he retains it’s only his personal vote that has saved him. He will likely lose it in 2028 to either gender quotas or redistribution.

DV Ipswich City has 155,000+ voters last i checked

Half of which are in Oxley all the divisions east of Ipswich bar Griffith which is at quota areunder quota by a total about .2 of a quota (Oxley, Bonner and moreton)

Some are in Wright also

Even if labor manage to hold the redistribution will probably flip th seat. Blair is likely to lose 22% to Oxley and gain 9% from the over quota fairfax/fisher/Longman excess. Overall nearly a 3rd of the seat will have chnaged

They should also move Ryan to the Brisbane river

The key to this seat is The Ipswich area.if that area remains in this seat most likely alp retain. Should they lose some of Ipwich and acquire the locker valley then will. be much closer

Mick I expect a swing of around 2.5 % this election the redistribution will remove parts of ipswichs but put in parts of the Sunshine Coast or Moreton bay as the the Lockyer valley simply won’t fit into Blair entirely. Which is why I think it’s best put in groom. And if that scenario were to happen it would flip and be out of labor’s reach especially if Shane Neumann is forced out by gender quotas at the next election

On German ancestry:

German ancestry is more common in Queensland than elsewhere in Australia. I remember joking to my sister when looking at the BCC results for Pullenvale that, “You know you’re in Brisbane when it’s Adermann versus Druckmann.” I don’t think there’s much more to it than that. I don’t get the impression that a German Australian candidate would sway German Australian voters much more than, say, an Irish Australian candidate would sway Irish Australian voters.

Yes but being a high German ancestry area. It’s more than likely you’ll get someone from a German background. It’s also good for the candidate to represent the demographics of the area

This actually had me curious to go through the list of Queensland federal MPs, state MPs, and BCC councillors and find all the German surnames. Here’s what I’ve arrived at:

– Federal: Buchholz, Neumann
– State: Gerber, Janetzki, Krause, Mickelberg
– BCC: Adermann, Marx, Schrinner, Strunk, Wolff

@Nicholas
Dick is also a German surname. Oxley, Blair and Wright are adjoining, it’s Germany in Qld.
Census data doesn’t show that, because Germans who settled the area fro, say 1840 to 1980, don’t show up. North Ipswich, going into the Lockyer Valley, waves of German immigration from the 19th Century to the 1950s.

by my maths Blair will need to shed about 28,000 voters to oxley in order to sure up the 3 under quota seats (Bonner, Moreton and Oxley) so thats basically all of East Ipswich booths which is labors strongest areas and probably part of the north/central booth which are slightly less so and then gain around 14,000 voters from one of the lnp voting divisions (Fairfax, Fisher, Longman, Maranoa or Wright) or a combination of those. with either much weaker labor voting or moderate to high lnp voting booths. so i dont see how labor holds this even notionally after the redistribution.

Only Moreton is just under quota

@calbe check again. moreton is 12% under bonner 8% oxley 2%

Agree John, the 10% variation for current enrolment is generally meaningless as the redistributions also take into account projected growth/decline with a much smaller 3% tolerance permitted. I would say every district with a 5% variance or higher will not meet the projected enrolment quotas, with those in the 2-5% range also at risk of not meeting the threshold.

@yoh im just basing my predictions on the data available. either way labor cannot hold blair in my opinion in 2028

my initial assumption was to go Bonner-Moreton-Oxley given griffith is at quota but the Bonner/Moreton seems to be hard to redraw however if they go straight down mains road that shouldnt be too difficult. otherwise they may ned to move through griffith. into oxley the centenery highway maybe. and inro blair probably along the cunningham highway then straight down ipswich- boonla road.

Drove through a fair bit of this electorate yesterday (from Ipswich to Grandchester), almost every street corner had multiple Neumann and Mutzelberg signs. There were also a decent number of Brendan Kross (One Nation) signs on street corners through Thagoona and Rosewood. The main roundabout at Rosewood also had singular Greens, Trumpet of Patriots and Family First signs.

This electorate will be a tight contest between the two major parties, although I reckon Shane Neumann will retain it with a swing against him. It’ll be up for grabs in 2028, if the redistribution is unfavourable and/or Neumann retires.

I’m saying this will be close last time the lib vote held up and it was onp that dropped. I’m saying libs will get it in 2028 if they don’t this time around because unless qld gains an extra seat the redistribution will favour the lnp. The same with lyons. Neumann will be forced out in 2028 regardless because of gender quotas. Even if they win Moreton and Brisbane female representation will be 4 out of 10. Less the the required 50%. Unless they shaft either Chisholm or Watt from the senate. As I doubt dick or charmers will be asked to move on.

Sry that should read 4 out of 9

Actually it would be 3 out of 9

Sry that’s wrong 4 out of 9 is correct.

There since a few centre right parties up here and only Labor and the greens on the left. So that could determine this seat

I think this might be close liberals having pole position and no uap (top) isn’t gonna be as successful) so and if the onp recovers and they have strong discipline on preferences they could tople Labor here. Even though the polls are showing Labor maintaining its 2002 result nationally the state breakdowns show a swing to the lnp I qld.

(I am back here after taking a break after I got a little bit angry another thread.)

On the ground, it looks like the major parties really think this seat is in play.

In the southeastern corner of the electorate, there’s Mutzelburg signs everywhere, and some that are just attacks on Neumann. (“Shame, Shayne!”) There’s some signs for Neumann, but many fewer.

It’s in stark contrast to Oxley, where I have not seen a single sign for the LNP candidate, despite many for Labor and some for The Greens.

Despite being enrolled in neighbouring Oxley, I’ve received ads on YouTube for Neumann with him speaking, and attack ads on Mutzelburg. (“A vote for Carl Mutzelburg is a vote for Peter Dutton…”)

Also, I noticed something funny about the candidates – look at the Labor, LNP, Greens, and One Nation candidates. Something about a typical bloke from Ipswich? Neumann just needs to grow a beard!

The libs have no hope of wining oxley

The south Eastern corn is whe d the libs have to win votes as the rest should be in thr bag

Assuming we take the premise that the Coalition fuel excise cut is silently cutting through in mega-commuter divisions like McEwen at face-value. Then I would also argue that this is a division to watch.

Plenty of people in this division use motor-vehicles as their primary method of transport to work. And of those car commuters, many are doing a lot of K’s on the road. Either into Ipswich from out in the Valleys, or from the new fringe greenfield estates into Brisbane.

Blair will be close. Don’t believe the polls this will be a seat by seat battle. Labor is likely to receive a boost in its inner city seats they already control. That will skew the needle.

I’m putting this seat as a wildcard. It could be very close on the night.

Neumann’s personal vote is strong but the LNP have been putting a heck-ton of resources into here. Their candidate was announced after Lilley I believe, which is interesting but he seems to be quite active based on social media. It should swing to the LNP, and there is a slim chance this seat may buck the trend and could flip but Labor’s vote in Ipswich is too strong for the LNP to outweigh it elsewhere. Nonetheless it will be very interesting.