Kiama by-election, 2025

Katelin McInerney will have the Labor pre-selection if she wants it.(There are personal considerations). Surely the Liberals have to make a serious effort to regain Kiama this time? Perhaps former 2022 Whitlam candidate & Kiama councillor Mike Cains is a strong possibility. Speaking of Whitlam, independent in May, Ben Britton is apparently sizing up a run. The Nationals have declared an intention to run. The Greens will run & surely this time their preferences will flow strongly to Labor. It was the significant leakage of Greens’ preferences in 2023 (compared to other seats) which delivered the seat to Ward. Given that he has resigned and has appealed his conviction, Ward could possibly re-contest himself?

This will be an interesting contest but I expect Labor will likely to pick this up. Labor absolutely dominated in this area at recent Federal election, look at the Gilmore results, though voting system is different with optional preferences at state level.

Lots of speculation about who candidates will be. Labor is likely to pick Katelin McInerney again, but there are rumours that Labor councillors in Kiama and Shoalhaven could go for it. Greens are already running a process for selecting a candidate. Nationals are also sniffing this seat out. Kate Dezarnaulds who was an independent for Gilmore said during the federal election that she would run for Kiama state seat in case of a byelection.

Liberals are absolutely on the nose here. Lots of rumours about who is positioning for it, but a large number of them also were close or friendly with the convicted former MP… also twice-failed Gilmore Liberal candidate Andrew Constance had shown interested in this seat previously.

Anyone care to estimate what Gareth Ward’s personal vote would be? It seems pretty sizable. It would not be in the best interest of the coalition for the Nats to run as the risk of vote leakage would be considerable.

Hi Ben. Could you please add information about Kiams’s Legislative Council vote and Ward voters’ two-party-preferred preference flows at the 2023 NSW state election? I think they will be useful in assessing how this by-election may go.

I found the information in this article. In the 2023 NSW election, Ward’s preferences flew 13.11% to Labor, 17.41% to the Liberal Party and 69.48% exhaust. Kiama’s Legislative Council vote was 38.1% Labor, 24% Coalition, 10.9% Greens, 6.9% One Nation, 4.0% Legalise Cannabis and 16.1% others. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/51515

Sorry, flowed not flew. A grammatical error.

Labor would be favourites here if Katelin McInerney runs again. She narrowly lost to Ward in 2023. If Liberals do poorly, then I would says it’s the end of the road for Mark Speakman as OL, as in today’s SMH there has been leadership grumblings, with either Kellie Sloane or James Griffin poised to take over the leadership. The concern is that Speakman has had not much cut through and the Ward issue hangs around the Liberal Party despite him being re-elected.

Kate Dezarnauds did very well in this part of Gilmore, and I believe she lives in Berry, so I imagine she will have a shot. Dumped Lib candidate in Whitlam Benjamin Britton also thinking of running, but will probably just end up splitting the Lib vote under OPV. Greens will run and suspect send prefs to Labor.

The voters of Kiama will be relieved this is all over now as this whole saga has dragged them through the mud and brought shame upon the community.

@echt: is it over? Yes voters of Kiama brought shame on themselves by frankly disrespecting the significance of police laying the charges and disregarding Gladys Berejeklian’s deep concerns frankly expressed.
The Liberals put quite a good candidate in the field in 2023 last time but she was not a local.
There are rumours that Mayor of Shellharbour Chris Homer (former candidate for Shellharbour) may run. He does not live far out of the electorate but the Albion Park region is 25%+ of the Shellharbour council area. On Homer’s re-election night in 2024 WIN TV ran extensive pictures of him, and Deputy Mayor Kellie Marsh celebrating their victory with Gareth Ward, who was widely thought to have managed Homer’s & Marsh’s campaign.

I was shocked on election night when Ward was re-elected. I didn’t know how to make sense of it, and I am none the wiser now. Of course, Ward was absolutely entitled to due process. But for him to have been re-elected with charges that serious against him? I could not help but wonder what this says about the voters of Kiama. I’m not trying to be mean. I just very genuinely struggle to understand how he was re-elected.

Nationals for Kiama!

If Libs want three-cornered contests in seats like Port Macquarie and Wagga Wagga then they’ll have the same in Albury, Kiama and Maitland!

I remember Gladys Berejiklian looking very rattled at a press conference back in 2021 when the allegations and police investigation first came to light.

Ward and Berejiklian were very close factionally, it was also reported that he clashed with Ann Sudmalis who spectacularly accused him of bullying and misogyny in the Federal parliament.

The close association with Ward will make it very hard for Chris Homer to run if his opponents draw attention to it. Reading through comments on Facebook posts and in local media most Kiama locals feel like the whole sad tale is a blight on their area and most are overwhelmingly negative against Ward, apart from a few who believe he is innocent, in spite of giving him the benefit of the doubt in his re-election in 2023.

Liberals thinking of sitting it out because of the association with Ward and a poor result would reflect poorly on Speakman coming closer to the 2027 election.

Labor are likely favourite here.

I had a look at Legislative Council results in view of Ward’s personal vote and I think based off them Kiama would have been a roughly 55-45 seat to Liberals in 2015 and 2019, so Ward’s personal vote was probably large. Then in 2023 there are big swings to Labor in surrounding seats in the lower house; obviously without Ward the 2PP in Kiama would have been nothing like what it was but Labor still would have won it easily. Indeed the LegCo votes suggest upwards of 60-40 but probably the LegCo vote was affected by the Ward factor as well.

The NSW Electoral Commission’s web page implies that in a traditional Labor-Liberal contest, Labor would have won comfortably in 2023.
You can actually view the Commission’s page, find the 2023 election results, locate each Lower House seat, and see what the two-candidate-preferred vote for any combination of candidates or parties would be.

I expect the Liberal vote, if a candidate runs, to recover modestly. In 2023, the Liberals parachuted in Melanie Gibbons who was the Member for Holsworthy but had lost preselection to rerun. This combined with the statewide decline in the Liberal vote created a path for Gareth Ward to retain.

My guess is that Ward had a sizable personal vote. Prior to 2011, Kiama was a safe Labor seat but Ward won it with a big swing and was comfortably reelected twice as a Liberal MP. He scraped through as an independent in 2023 despite the charges against him.

Antony Green seems to think that it is a fair chance that the Liberals will not run a candidate. They parachuted a candidate in 2023 for strategic reasons, rather than with any real expectations of competing. I can see the rationale for them not running a candidate and letting the controversy blow over. The Nats might take a look at the race if it looks like the Libs will stand down or run dead, but that wouldn’t help the situation on the right IMO. It might be one of those cases where the chips will fall where they do and move on. The biggest twist is that because NSW is OPV, we can see the 2PP had almost a 1/3 exhaustion rate. Who voted one and done and how they behave in the by will be interesting. One thing that Ward was good at doing was getting his face in front of the camera on public works projects, even if his involvement was merely conjunctural. Assuming McInerney runs again, she would be the betting odds favourite at this point.

One would assume that the vast majority of Ward’s 2023 vote came from Liberal voters, but not entirely. Looking back at past elections, it doesn’t appear that the district has had very many non-Liberal right candidates running. In contrast, non-Labor left candidates collect about 15% of the primary vote.

Easy Labor win. This was always a Labor seat but Gareth Ward pulled a decent personal vote. Doubt the libs will even try. Another jobs for mates Labor gig.

I think it’ll be close. Yes last time Labor won comfortably but NSW has OPV so most people thought Gareth Ward was innocent at the time therefore still voted for him (now though they certainly wouldn’t) and those who thought he was guilty went to Labor because the Liberals parachuted in Melanie Gibbons.

“most people thought Gareth Ward was innocent at the time therefore still voted for him”

Careful. Being accused of / charged with something isn’t the same as being innocent of it.

Could Ann sudmalis run as an Independent or Lib now that Gareth ward is gone . She was forced into retirement. She could run as a Nat maybe as she endorsed Katrina hodgkinson in 2019?

I think Labor will run Katelin McInerney, she came pretty close last time around against a mega-popular MP. I would expect the Liberals would run Mike Cains, owing to the fact he got a swing to him in Whitlam in 2022 and is a councillor on Kiama Council.

Fun fact: Ann Sudmalis was the unsuccessful Liberal candidate here in 2007, and in 2011 lost the preselection for the seat to Ward 12-20.

Seems their bad blood goes back quite a way, as she and Joanna Gash (and Shelley Hancock) were listed as witnesses at Ward’s trial.

Katelin McInerney still front runner for likely Labor candidate. If not her, it will be one of the two Labor councillors on Kiama council (Draisma and Larkins). Greens are either picking Melinda Lawton (a Kiama councillor) or Tonia Gray (former Shoalhaven councillor). Liberals are allegedly canvassing Melissa Matters, Deputy Mayor of Kiama Council and Mike Cains (a Kiama councillor). Also in the running is Serena Copley (former Shoalhaven councillor) for Liberal candidate.

Interesting how current and former councillors seem to be the top names being touted.

Should be a safe win for Labor. Instructive to view Pittwater and Black (SA) by-elections. The Liberals received a thrashing thanks to their previous MP’s scandals. Here it’s an even more serious conviction and in that light plus Speakman’s leadership tension I’d be stunned if they had a candidate. At most there might be a conservative independent that attempts to make this a contest.

I can see a scenario where the Liberals abstain. If they abstain, it could be because they don’t like their chances. There might be shame or a guilt by association with Ward. Also, a worse-than-expected result could lead to a leadership spill and so Speakman may not want to take a gamble. The Upper Hunter by-election of 2021 is a precedent.

Labor is the favourite. There are some potential wildcards like the Nationals or an independent contesting.

Waste of money for thr libs running. Im not gon a comment on the mdmber as the matter is still beforre the courts.

It was stated on former Shoalhaven councilor Paul Ell’s Facebook page that nominations for Liberal preselection opens today, so I’d say that sticks a fork in any speculation the Liberals would sit this by-election out.

(He said he wouldn’t be running in the preselection)

This was also confirmed by Leader of the Opposition Mark Speakman who said the Liberals would be contesting Kiama.

I’d say they will be running to try and direct preferences.

Speakman should nominate Former Liberal Senator Hollie Hughes who needs a permanent job as the Money she receives from SKY NEWS (afterdark) alongside Bromwyn Bishop is not sustainable. Hopefully the liberals have improved of checking candidates since the days of endorsing Gareth Ward. I SAY A VOTE FOR THE LIBERALS IS A WASTE OF TIME

My guess is that it’ll be held on 20th of September or 18th of October to avoid the school holidays.

As reported here, there’s talk within the party of replacing Speakman. The by-election could be the final straw if the Libs underperform.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bombshell-leaked-liberal-group-chat-reveals-party-leader-s-days-could-be-numbered/ar-AA1Kfh8O

Don’t blame them for thinking of replacing Speakman honestly. He’s practically unknown

@maurice she wouldnt win the rrs no way the libs win this unless chris minns shoots someone in the middle of central station

Greg Piper Speaker of the LA has announced today that the by-election will be on September 13th so a very short sharp campaign https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/la/speakerandofficeholders/Pages/NewsandEvents2024.aspx

The speaker of the NSW LA has announced the Kiama by-election will be held on 13 September marking the start of a very short 3-week campaign. Writ to be issued on 22 August when the electoral roll will close and nominations will open. Nominations will close on 28 August at 12 noon. Early voting will open on 6 September. https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/la/speakerandofficeholders/Pages/NewsandEvents2024.aspx

Nothing certain…. remember upper
Hunter…….!!!!!!!

Kiama Legislative Council vote in 2019 and 2023 NSW elections:
2019: Coalition 35.82% (LA vote 53.59%), Labor 27.07% (LA vote 28.20%), Greens 11.16%, One Nation 7.75%
2023 (swings compared to 2019): Coalition 23.97% (-11.85%), Labor 38.15% (+11.08%), Greens 10.86% (-0.30%), One Nation 6.92% (-0.83%), Legalise Cannabis 3.96% (+3.96%), OTH 16.14%

You can see that there were massive swings against the Coalition and towards Labor in the Legislative Council votes for Kiama in the 2023 NSW election. Applying 2023 statewide preference flow to the 2023 Kiama Legislative Council figures I got a Labor 2PP of 61.3%. Therefore, if Ward had not contested Kiama in 2023, Labor would have won Kiama easily, possibly with a 2PP of 60% or higher. A 22% 2PP swing may be massive, however so was Ward’s personal vote, which was demonstrated by the fact that the Coalition primary vote in the Legislative Assembly in Kiama in the 2019 NSW election was 17.77% higher than in the Legislative Council.

In the Pittwater and Black (SA) by-elections after former Liberal MPs were charged with criminal offences, the Liberals received a thrashing. The same is expected to happen at the Kiama by-election. What’s more, the state Labor government is fairly popular and is polling well. That’s why the by-election should be an easy win for Labor unless there’s a very strong independent campaign.

I can understand why NSW Liberal leader Mark Speakman wants the Liberal Party to contest the election despite admitting the Liberal Party’s chances of winning are little, because he does not want to be seen as weak for avoiding a difficult challenge, which could further undermine his leadership. On the other hand, a “miraculous win” (as he called it) will strengthen his leadership.

Kate Dezarnaulds, the independent candidate for the federal seat of Gilmore in the 2025 federal election that overlaps Kiama, has created a Facebook page named “Kate Dezarnaulds 4 Kiama”. So she will contest the Kiama by-election. She polled close to 10% in many polling places in Kiama. However, she is unlikely to poll well enough to push the Liberals into third place and gain enough preferences from the Liberals and the Greens to win. https://www.facebook.com/kate4kiama

@Mick: Upper Hunter has never been won by Labor and has been held by the Country/National Party since 1932, while Kiama was held by Labor between 1981 and 2011. It will be a huge blow to Premier Chris Minns if Labor does not win the Kiama by-election.

I’m not surprised Kate Dezarnaulds is running, I was expecting a ‘teal’/community independent to pop up.

@Joseph – I agree with your assessment of how Kate will do. She will likely do well in the Kiama area itself, where some polling places voted ‘Yes’ to the Voice referendum, indicating a Tealish demographic. But I expect her vote will likely drop in Albion Park as it is more suburban and less Tealish in demographics.

I’d give her goods odds of getting g up with a Labor primary of 34 and a liberal primary of 12. There’s 38% of voters looking for a home. Teals usually attract voters away from Labor and the greens. I suspect the liberal vote will recover to around 20%. Many liberal voters followed Ward as an independent. I suspect as in all By elections we will have a Melbourne Cup field. If she gets over the Greens which I suspect she will she only then needs to get over the Liberals to be in with a shot.

Of course she will need liberal preferences. They preferences her in the federal election and there’s no reason to believe they won’t again. We have seen how Climate 200 can bankroll certai MPs to help them beat liberals so there’s no reason to believe that won’t happen here. Also getting her elected here helps the liberals federally. Because she then can’t run for federal parliament.

With the Liberals running, would that mean the Nationals will abstain?

@Mick, Joseph. Upper Hunter has never been a Labor seat. I think Labor had high hopes for the 2021 by-election but the Nationals ended up getting a 2CP swing to them. The swing away from Labor precipitated a leadership change with Chris Minns taking over from Jodi McKay. It was held during the pandemic and so it gave the incumbent government an advantage because it sidelined the opposition from media attention.

This will be interesting. Libs wont win but the independent will be within a shot. The libs will need to encourage preferences to help her over the line

This has the potential to turn out to be an unpredictable election, due in part to the nature of by-elections, the fallout from the Ward conviction/resignation/possible expulsion, and the potential mix of new candidates. It will be interesting to see if Ward tries to influence things from afar and how his core supporters behave in the election. The conviction changes things from being merely allegations/due process, but there could still be hard feelings depending on the candidate’s preselection.

@John – Teals have (in the past) taken more from the Liberals than Labor in urban seats. Kiama may be different, but they could attract a lot of disaffected Liberal voters who are disappointed by how the whole Ward thing unfolded.

I expect Labor primaries to increase, as they will likely have the strongest candidate on the ballot paper (in McInerney), with the rest of the vote in somewhat of a flux. It is unlikely that anyone will preference the Liberal candidate in meaningful numbers. I suspect OPV will be less of a factor than it was in 2023 since there won’t be a polarizing candidate.

@Darth Vader – I would be surprised if the Liberals run dead for preferences, but I wouldn’t be shocked for this particular election. If they feel like their cause is hopeless, it could be the strategic thing to do. But that would mean running a candidate who would be willing to be a sacrificial lamb, not someone with aspirations.

I can’t imagine it’s great for Speakman’s job security if they choose to run and then run dead, suspect it will be a competitive campaign

The teal candidate might not do that well in Albion Park because it’s suburban and working-class. Also, it is outside of the federal seat of Gilmore where she recently ran.

From memory, the NSW state Liberals don’t normally recommend preferences to anyone except for the Nationals when they are targeting the same seat.

Votante the libs and nats don’t contest the same seats in nsw due to OPV the nats won’t contest the same seats and vice versa as they they have a agreement on which seats are designated Libs and those that are designated Nate. The exception to this rule was port Macquarie which the nats claimed because they won’t the seat and the member defected to the libs

Kate Dezarnaulds has announced she is running for the Kiama by-election.