LNP 1.7%
Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.
Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.
Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.
Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.
Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since.
Peter Dutton has held his seat ever since. He served as a junior minister in the final term of the Howard government and as a senior minister in the Coalition government from 2013 until 2022. After the Coalition’s defeat at the 2022 election, he was elected as leader of the opposition.
Assessment
Dickson is quite a marginal seat and it is worth watching. Labor did quite poorly in Queensland in 2022 compared to other states. If they benefit from incumbency they could pick up a substantial amount of ground in Queensland.
It’s also worth noting that Dutton has increased his profile now as leader of his party, which will probably improve his position in his local seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 41,657 | 42.1 | -3.9 |
| Ali France | Labor | 31,396 | 31.7 | +0.4 |
| Vinnie Batten | Greens | 12,871 | 13.0 | +3.0 |
| Tamera Gibson | One Nation | 5,312 | 5.4 | +0.2 |
| Alina Karen Ward | United Australia | 2,717 | 2.7 | +0.5 |
| Alan Buchbach | Independent | 2,222 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Thor Prohaska | Independent | 1,618 | 1.6 | -0.7 |
| Lloyd Russell | Liberal Democrats | 1,236 | 1.2 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 3,996 | 3.9 | -0.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 51,196 | 51.7 | -2.9 |
| Ali France | Labor | 47,833 | 48.3 | +2.9 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-east (51.1%) and the west (54.7%), as well as on the pre-poll and other votes. Labor won 52.5% in the north-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.2% in the north-east to 18% in the west, but just 11.7% on the pre-poll.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 13.2 | 47.5 | 16,958 | 17.1 |
| South-East | 15.8 | 51.1 | 14,310 | 14.5 |
| West | 18.0 | 54.7 | 4,621 | 4.7 |
| Pre-poll | 11.7 | 52.3 | 38,111 | 38.5 |
| Other votes | 12.4 | 53.4 | 25,029 | 25.3 |
Election results in Dickson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
This is a seat that Labor should have won in 2022 with the state-wide 2PP swing to Labor enough to deliver the seat but Labor did kind of “give up” and let Peter Dutton win and go on to be Opposition Leader. I doubt Labor will win it now with Dutton’s increased profile but it’s interesting to see whether Labor sacrificing this winnable seat will benefit them in the other seats they need to win and retain across the country.
The problem for Labor is Albany Creek which is what is giving Dutton his margin. Almost everywhere else goes Labor or if it’s Liberal they are tiny booths. Labor should focus on Albany Creek because Dutton as built a stronghold there.
What makes Albany Creek liberal leaning compares to others areas of the seat? When I lived in Queensland I went there many times and I couldn’t tell what made the area more conservative. I used to go to Bridgeman Downs allot which is in neighboring seats and that is a high income area because of the number of multi million dollar houses so that was obvious.
Labor would have won this seat in 2007 on these boundaries what saved Dutton was area around Esk (Somerset Region) which is now in Blair. If you think in 2022 Labor actually got a worse TPP than in 2007 then they actually over performed in Dickson compared to Queensland has a whole. I agree with Dan M that Dutton’s increased profile especially in a state that has not produced many PMs means that there will be some parochial advantage. I think next federal election Labor would first try and sandbag Blair before going hunting for other seats. They would win Leichardt with Warren Entsch retiring. I dont see Labor winning Greens held seats in QLD nor do i see Dutton being able to win Lilley, Oxley or Moreton so the battle in outer Brisbane and the regions.
@Daniel T, Albany Creek seems to have a lot of McMansions, i think parts of this seat are referred to as the Brisbane Hills District so maybe similar in part to NW Sydney
@ Daniel T
I live southside, so I don’t venture northside too often, but Albany Creek always struck me as a middling suburb – Not too flash, not too shabby.
However looking at socio-economic profile compared to SEQ average, then by household income levels its holds up very well. https://profile.id.com.au/moreton-bay/household-income?WebID=100&BMID=25. So I can’t see Labor gaining a foothold here. It and Dickson as a whole, might be ripe for Teal candidate given Dutton’s profile and standing with women.
Personally I think it is FAR too early to be calling out results for any electorate at this stage. A LOT can happen between now and May 25. For me, I think the QLD State election results will have a big bearing on the Federal election. I suspect that Federal Labor won’t be too displeased to see Anna lose and release some of that pressure that seems to be building up here for Labor to go at a State level. Crisafulli has talked up a big game and by May 25 his star may not be shining so bright once the reality of actually fixing problems (as opposed to whining about them) becomes more obvious.
Dickson has been marginal for most of Dutton’s tenure, with the closest being in 2007 thanks to Kevin 07. Believe it or not, Labor was close in 2016 and 2022 as well.
I expect a lot of political capital to shift to Queensland for the next election. It’s partly to save face as it’s Dutton’s homestate and they’d like to save face. They also have everything to lose and little to gain in Queensland and so they’ll have to sandbag seats like Dickson as well as Bonner, Petrie and Longman.
I don’t see a teal threat to Dutton as I’m skeptical of the teals chances in outer-suburban areas. I sense Dutton will increase his 2PP as Labor sandbags its own seats and shifts to Leichhardt if Warren Entsch retires.
@votatne yes by the looks of things they only do well here when Labor are on top and the libs are in disarray. They have almost climbed the hill if they haven’t already and very soon they will enjoy the free ride down. Those three years were the Ruddslide, Turnbull Trouble and Mad at Morrison. He will enjoy the opposition bump and from his increased profile as leader as well as qld hatred of labor. Palaschuck goes to the polls in Oct 24 and a loss would see him ride the honeymoon of a Crisafuli govt. The next redistribution will be favourable to him as he will lose the strong abor areas in the south for friendly territory north. Entsch is retiring its been announced I would put Leichhardt in the likely Labor gain but its the only one. The anti govt swing against both federal and state labor could also help. The only time its gone labor in 40 years was briefly in 2007 when he retired temporarily during a period of strong qld state govt a popular incoming Rudd govt who was from qld and the anti govt swing being on. These are uncharted waters. The only constant since 2007 is entsch retiring. Maybe the liberals have let him go because they think they can still win without him and want to put a new mp in for the long haul while their on top. Expect a scomo retirement announce before the election most likely at the election. Dutton will wan to remove any unwanted unnecessary baggage tying him to the former govt as former leaders in parliament only become divisive for the leader. I’m guessing he’s stayed to keep the seat blue during the minn honeymoon.
I have this wild thought that there could be a grassroots independent candidate who will run in 2025 specifically to defeat Dutton. It could be a teal candidate or an openly left-wing candidate who is pro-voice. Dutton started off as party leader with more baggage than Turnbull or Morrison and hence will be a target. It’s similar to the Vote Tony Out movement that targetted Abbott in Warringah in 2019.
I doubt they’d win as I alluded to above. They would’ve at least given him a scare if they’d run in 2022. I do think it’s harder for a teal to win when there’s a Labor government.
@Votante Labor may secretly want a teal to not run in Dickson and to run against Josh Frydenberg because if Josh wins back Kooyong or wins Higgins then he would be the next Liberal leader. Labor want a Coalition they can’t work with and therefore they personally would rather have Josh but in terms of helping Labor they want Dutton.
I don’t see why we’re talking about Labor gaining Leichhardt from the LNP but not the LNP gaining Blair from Labor. Marginal doesn’t mean gain. Flynn is also a marginal LNP seat.
I still believe that Dutton will hold this. Labor may surrender in Dickson and welcome a teal run here, whilst sandbagging Blair and/or having a shot at Leichhardt and possibly Flynn.
@Nether Portal. Labor would ideally prefer Malcolm Turnbull circa 2009 as Opposition Leader, without the Liberal leadership contenders.
@votante Dutton will hold this until he retires
@ Votante I get the impression living here that Flynn will remain marginal but is ultimately not winnable for Labor anymore outside of exceptional circumstances. The pro-ALP vote in Gladstone just can’t outweigh the strong LNP vote everywhere else. Leichhardt is definitely the seat more worth targeting of the two.
Dutton will not win the 2025 election…. indeed odds are he will not even be opposition leader then.
What does he do then stay or retire?
I am not sure if a Teal could win Dickson while quite a bit of it is wealthy a lot of it fairly average and in seats where Labor can win, Teals usually will dont do well. I feel Dutton elevation to the leadership will assist him here and the neighboring seats of Longman, Petrie as well. I do think Blair is potential pick for the LNP so Labor will spend a lot of resources to sandbag it before going hunting in QLD. In terms of potential pick ups for Labor i think Leichardt is the most obvious with Warren Entsch retiring, also it is quite different from other Regional QLD seats is that it is not based on the resources industry or agriculture rather it is based on tourism and has a large indigenous community so i feel it is easier to win than Flynn