LNP 1.7%
Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.
Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.
History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.
Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.
Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.
Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since.
Peter Dutton has held his seat ever since. He served as a junior minister in the final term of the Howard government and as a senior minister in the Coalition government from 2013 until 2022. After the Coalition’s defeat at the 2022 election, he was elected as leader of the opposition.
Assessment
Dickson is quite a marginal seat and it is worth watching. Labor did quite poorly in Queensland in 2022 compared to other states. If they benefit from incumbency they could pick up a substantial amount of ground in Queensland.
It’s also worth noting that Dutton has increased his profile now as leader of his party, which will probably improve his position in his local seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 41,657 | 42.1 | -3.9 |
| Ali France | Labor | 31,396 | 31.7 | +0.4 |
| Vinnie Batten | Greens | 12,871 | 13.0 | +3.0 |
| Tamera Gibson | One Nation | 5,312 | 5.4 | +0.2 |
| Alina Karen Ward | United Australia | 2,717 | 2.7 | +0.5 |
| Alan Buchbach | Independent | 2,222 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Thor Prohaska | Independent | 1,618 | 1.6 | -0.7 |
| Lloyd Russell | Liberal Democrats | 1,236 | 1.2 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 3,996 | 3.9 | -0.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 51,196 | 51.7 | -2.9 |
| Ali France | Labor | 47,833 | 48.3 | +2.9 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-east (51.1%) and the west (54.7%), as well as on the pre-poll and other votes. Labor won 52.5% in the north-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.2% in the north-east to 18% in the west, but just 11.7% on the pre-poll.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 13.2 | 47.5 | 16,958 | 17.1 |
| South-East | 15.8 | 51.1 | 14,310 | 14.5 |
| West | 18.0 | 54.7 | 4,621 | 4.7 |
| Pre-poll | 11.7 | 52.3 | 38,111 | 38.5 |
| Other votes | 12.4 | 53.4 | 25,029 | 25.3 |
Election results in Dickson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
@LNP Insider, I think you are onto something for both major parties. They are both products of an earlier time, and it shows. Neither side seems capable of doing more than a very basic managing, with zero idea of anything that’s arrived in the past 15 years.
And the public is increasingly walking away from both. I suspect that the Liberals would do better if they positioned themselves where the Democrats used to be (and where some of the Teals are now) – economically centrist and socially liberal, without being beholden to either corporations or trade unions. For that to happen, though, there needs to be a split between the conservative and moderate wings of the party. They are no longer a broad church, and it shows.
On the ALP side, if they cannot show that don’t stand for anything beyond the pursuit for its own sake, and actually legislate progressive and reformist policies, then they will continue to bleed votes to the Greens and others. They don’t seem to understand that the public is not remotely interested in factions, but in results.
@Ryoma but it ain’t going to happen. In every aspect of human activity in Australia where the state once either played a role or monopolised that role – telecommunications, health, education, housing, transport, and so on and so forth – there is now a corporate replacement or competitor. The state and it’s actors have largely been eclipsed by corporations. No government can tell Coles and Woolworths what to do, let alone Google, Meta or Tesla. MyHealth is owned by Medibank. Your once family owned bus service is probably now run by an overseas multinational. You pay your ever increasing road tolls to a multinational momopoly, Transurban. And who controls the banks? Even welfare services are delivered through corporate payment cards and job agencies. Public Housing fills the gap that was once played by psychiatric institutions while private agencies supply a trickle of affordable dwellings using corporate models. Even the sports you watch are sponsored by multinational corporations and broadcast by multinational media companies. Corporations have largely taken over your life. You are dependent upon their phones, their financial services, their employment contracts, the products their prepared to sell you. They have the ear of government, not you. And there’s not a damned thing the ALP or the Coalition are going to do about it. They rely on corporate donations to exist.
And it’s not going to change anytime soon.
But in the meantime we have this little beauty contest for ugly people we misname democracy. Go on. Enjoy it. It makes wonderful theater.
@ Trent
How did the Drinking games go? A day to celerbate something to relive the moment
Haha the dunk tank!
Didn’t get to do much of a drinking game but certainly poured a shot after Dickson was called!
@ Trent
I really wish a Sudanese cultural festival in Dickson can be organised for Dutton to be farwelled and thanked for his service and he can enjoy learning about a new culture now that he has more time.
Any guesses on Dutton’s next gig?
He’ll be fine.
Saw this coming tbh. Especially whaf happened in Canada.
Dutton w as thw only.thing holding this seat for the libs. And once all the factors stacked agaonst him is was.inevitable.
I knew it was possible after the Canadian election, but I also expected a much tighter race.
Labor had lots of ground game and volunteers and resources. The PM even visited here on day 1 and he seemed quietly confident. Ellie Smith and her backers, including Climate 200, was another wildcard adding to anti-Dutton messaging and gave LNP voters a choice and this choice allowed them to vote for a teal and preference Labor ahead of LNP.
Queensland Labor had a Victory march today on Labor Day. Ali France led it
something to remember Dutton and what could have been if Dutton won on May the 3rd. Trump has allowed White South Africans to enter the US as refugees as he claims there is a “genocide” of Whites in South Africa so if Dutton had won maybe Australia will be welcoming Whites fleeing a so called genocide in South Africa. if you want you can call me a genocide deniar regarding White South Africa.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-13/white-south-africans-flying-to-the-us-under-trump-refugee-plan/105284426
@nimalan the problem is dutton is not the PM and even if he won dickson.
Nimalan, the situation in South Africa is quite complex. Whilst there has been substantial progress towards reconciliation, there are still many Blacks living in poverty like conditions. The so called ‘genocide’ or murder of white South Africans is primarily caused by those disaffected individuals, mainly youths who commit these crimes because they feel helpless (much like those committed by indigenous youths in Australia).
Whilst I don’t condone these acts of violence, they are certainly not at the same level as those committed by other nations (like Israel against the Palestinis, China against the Uyghurs or Burma/Myanmar against the Rohingya Muslims).
@ Yoh An
I agree i concede South Africa has very high crime rates but that does not mean it is a genocide it is more like the high crime rates as you correctly pointed out in places like NT or Palm Island in Australia. It is not state sponsored and White South Africans are citizens of a democracy so we cannot compare it to Burma against Rohingiya, Azerbajian against Armenains of Nagano Karabakh, Iran on Bahais, Syria (new regime) against Alawaites and Druze. I dont have an issue with White South Africans moving to Australia through the skilled migration program but do not take the place of a geninue refugee.
@yoh thats bs its effectively being done by the black majority south african government who basically are calling for white farmers to have their land stolen from them while i have no evidence they are in anyway involved iw ouldnt be surprised if they are behind it and at very least the government is not doing anyhing to stop the killings. The difference is the palestinians are at very east provoking the israelis. if the israelis were determined to kill the palestinians there would be a far more efficeitn way of doing it.
I think there are some very obvious facts that are missed when discussing the situation in South Africa, especially regarding the (purported) role of the government:
The EFF are not, and have never been, in government at the national level. Imagine if someone overseas took a clip of a speech by Pauline Hanson or Adam Bandt and claimed, “This is what the Australian government believes.” That is to a large extent what is happening in the commentary around South Africa.
The current government of South Africa is a diverse coalition of parties spanning from centre-left to right-wing. Not only does it include the Democratic Alliance, it also includes the Freedom Front. In fact, the leader of the Freedom Front is the Minister for Correctional Services.
Just for some background as someone who has visited South Africa.
South Africa is actually majority-Black, even though most of the diaspora (and most of the South Africans we see in the media) are White. When you look at the stats the White population may seem small but in reality there are lots of Coloured people in South Africa (Coloured = mixed Black and White, usually speaking either Afrikaans or English).
The majority of Black and White people get along but there are attacks. Crime in South Africa (as well as many other issues like AIDS, poverty, etc) very disproportionately affects disadvantaged Black people.
White, Coloured and Indian/Asian South Africans tend to be richer and live more in the cities or in rural areas. This is why the Western Cape (including Cape Town) has been so strong for the centre-right Democratic Alliance (even among Blacks).
The EFF has never actually governed in South Africa and the ANC currently govern in coalition with the DA and several minor parties, while the more extreme left-wing parties (the EFF and Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK Party), which broke away from the ANC) are not in government. The EFF are very left-wing in both their economic policies (socialist) and in their foreign policies (pro-China, pro-Iran, pro-Palestine, pro-Russia). Many of their policies are considered racist and antisemitic.
One day I think the DA will win government, whether in a majority or a minority with the support of other smaller conservative and liberal parties, but the EFF won’t and I don’t even think they’ll ever win a province.
Just for the record too Cape Town is beautiful and has a lower crime rate and less corruption than Joburg. Definitely helps the DA’s message of better governance in DA-controlled areas like Cape Town (and all of Western Cape), Pretoria and Howick.
Skipping the SA stuff and going back to the comparisons with Canada. Aren’t the Australian and Canadian situations the exact opposite? The Liberals under Trudeau had a very large decline that went mostly to other leftish parties then gained a lot of that back under Carney while the Conservatives basically stayed the same, while here it was the Liberals who climbed then collapsed while Labor stayed pretty much the same.
@MLV
Yes and no:
– Over the course of 2024, the Conservative vote gradually increased at the expense of the Liberals. However, the NDP vote remained steady.
– From January 2025, there was a surge in support for the Liberals at the expense of both the Conservatives and the NDP.
Dickson and Sturt were the two LNP electorates (pre-election) with the most public servants. That’s according to Kos Samaras. He mentions that this includes state and council public servants who might have empathy or fear an attack on their own profession.
I used to work in the public service. I saw restructures and mass redundancies during my time. I believe we should trim the fat once in a while and reform the public service to keep up with the times.
Announcing a cutting of over 40,000 jobs ahead of an election created fear and uncertainty. This also presented fear for their families and private sector vendors and workers who depend on the public service e.g. cleaners, barristas, marketing and legal services.