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The LNP only held on here due to Bridget Archer.
@bob agreed the curse of bass usually sees 1 term mps. Interestingly Jacqui Lambie supports her here while directing to labor in the other 3 but it doesn’t appear to have much an effect on where her supporters directed there preferences. It did however see PH direct hers to Labor here.
Gavin Pearce in 2022 increased his margin in Braddon much more than Bridget Archer did.
I expect Jacqui Lambie become more of a kingmaker next time as the lead senate candidate and as she establishes the JLN as the third force in middle Tasmania in 2025.
it appears that the state election results has mirrored the federal results, although libs did marginally worse by while Labor & Greens both did margnally better, and in a seat like this it could mean the difference.
The difference was probably Bridget Archer’e profile and personal vote.