Bass – Australia 2025

The LNP only held on here due to Bridget Archer.

@bob agreed the curse of bass usually sees 1 term mps. Interestingly Jacqui Lambie supports her here while directing to labor in the other 3 but it doesn’t appear to have much an effect on where her supporters directed there preferences. It did however see PH direct hers to Labor here.

Gavin Pearce in 2022 increased his margin in Braddon much more than Bridget Archer did.

I expect Jacqui Lambie become more of a kingmaker next time as the lead senate candidate and as she establishes the JLN as the third force in middle Tasmania in 2025.

it appears that the state election results has mirrored the federal results, although libs did marginally worse by while Labor & Greens both did margnally better, and in a seat like this it could mean the difference.

The difference was probably Bridget Archer’e profile and personal vote.

Honestly considering what is going on with the Liberals at the moment I honestly wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever if Bridget Archer left the Liberals. She’s obviously much more moderate and progressive than Dutton and her neighbouring Liberal MP Gavin Pearce (who’s retiring next election). She seems to disagree with them on a lot of issues: the Voice, the climate target dumping, a federal ICAC. She’s very popular in Bass so an independent win is likely if she did go into that scenario, and Tasmanian Liberals are struggling after the state election. Still tipping them to win Lyons in 2025.

@james shed lose as an independent it would come down to how her vote broke up and i dare say labr migh t win.

I think she would win as an independent and honestly I think it’s actually quite possible that she could quit the Liberals or maybe even call a spill (the latter is unlikely to come from Bridget Archer though). In fact if the Tasmanian Liberals weren’t moderate on the state level she may have already quit since she wouldn’t have had the same defence from Jeremy Rockliff and Peter Gutwein who have similar views to her on issues like climate change.

@np to do that she would need to have a high enough primary and i dont think she would tbh Bass is alot different to say the North shore. and unlinke wilkie in clark she wouldnt benefit from liberal preferences

Either way libs would lose Bass without Archer.

I’m in two minds as to whether Archer can win as an independent, this is a classic marginal where both the Liberals and Labor have decent primary votes and a non inconsequential Green vote, most seats that fall to independents are usually safe and there is no realistic way the opposing major party can win.
That being said she definitely has higher than average name recognition for a backbench MP and should she run as an independent she would be in good position to hold.

@john
“tbh Bass is alot different to say the North shore”

Are you suggesting that all independent politicians are teals? Dai Le is an independent MP in Sydney who is anti-teal and is merely a community-based independent, like Helen Haines/Cathy McGowan in Indi, Bob Katter in Kennedy, and Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo. Saying that these sort of well-known, popular, and COMMUNITY-based independents are the same as government-critical, progressive independents is brash and very wrong.

Bridget Archer could certainly win as an independent. She’s popular, well-known, has the incumbency advantage, and could certainly scalp votes from a struggling state and federal government easily. Also, what about Gareth Ward (MP for Kiama)? He left his party on very controversial circumstances and became an independent, and he sunk the Liberal vote in Kiama by 41%, and held onto Kiama as an independent. It is very possible for Bridget Archer to do the same.

Archer is reportedly likely to be the only nominee for Bass Liberal preselection sometime this week.

Not surprised. As I have mentioned already, she’s very qualified, and very popular and well-known.

I agree that she would win as an independent. She’s not some no-name backbencher. Her brand is big and people do vote for her because of her. There’s a cohort of Labor and Greens voters who would not vote for the Liberals but would vote for her as an independent given her personal profile and her progressive stances.

And if I lived in Bass which I once looked for rentals in Tas, then I certainly would vote for her despite the fact I don’t want them in power federally, She is mire effective at keeping the party in check than Labor and the Greens, and losing her means the Liberals will say “moderates can’t win” and will drift further to the right.

Independent or Liberal, she would have my vote.

Pearce is probably retiring because he wanted her out but isn’t getting his way, so long Gavin Nobody!

I actually predict Bass and Braddon will SWAP margins after the next election, Archer will be safer than the Liberal in Braddon because most of the coverage she has gotten was during this parliamentary term and she has become more popular since her re-election.

@Daniel T I agree she has a massive personal vote in Bass. I don’t predict Braddon to go that much backwards but I do think that Bass will go up to maybe 5%. She’s probably the most liked federal MP in Australia right now.

@james dai le won because the labor candidate was a parachuted welathy white woman in a working class multicultural electorate

while i agree her vote is significant she would break the 2cp as an independent and it would likely be an labor win

@John why wouldn’t the Liberals get her preferences if she was an independent? Andrew Wilkie in Clark gets Liberal preferences and he’s practically a teal.

@NP because she would most likely be in a 2Cp with them

Who would the Greens preference first? Labor or an independent Bridget Archer? Hard to say how many votes an Indie Bridget Archer would take from the Greens. Being in Tasmania, I would say Bridget Archer go well as an independent.

Why would she go independent when she is able to win as a liberal.?

@micheal exactly she identifies as a liberal as tbh im happy to admit i dont agree with her but i reckon if she can hold the seat for the party why rock the boat?

Bridget Archer has been officially preselected by the Liberals to contest Bass in 2025. However, considering how Dutton is going, I wouldn’t be surprised if she quit the party.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say Archer isn’t ever going to leave the Liberals unless she is explicitly kicked out.

I understand there’s no smoke without fire, but Archer still overwhelmingly votes with the Liberals and has given no indication that she wants to leave, her occasional dissent just garners a tonne of media attention. Whilst sure, the conservative side of the Tasmanian party is rumoured to want her out, the person (other than Eric Abetz I suppose) alleged to have wanted her out most, so much so that he was willing to get preselections delayed by over half a year, Gavin Pearce, has just announced he won’t be contesting the next election. No one ran against her in preselection. She won the factional war.

On top of all of this, with nominations for preselections seeming to coincide with Dutton’s latest remarks about the Paris agreement, would now not be the best time to defect? Drum up a tonne of attention and announce you’re quitting the party to re-contest your seat as an Independent, with a focus on climate change? I think if she was indeed going to defect, she’d have done so now.

If Archer was having any misgivings she would have left by now, and I doubt she would leave unless something astonishing happens.
If she holds after the next election I’d expect her to be promoted to the front bench, as a way of quelling her dissent but also utilising her as one of the few effective moderate libs in the lower house.

Archer is the type who could fend off teal challengers. She can pull moderate liberals with her personal vote as well as conservatives who like the Libs or Dutton but not so much what she stands for.

I agree with the above comments that she will remain in the party and if she wanted to leave, she would’ve done so ages ago. It would be risky to kick her out given the low margin.