CA 12.3% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Rebekha Sharkie, since 2016.
Geography
Parts of South Australia to the south and east of Adelaide. Mayo covers the Adelaide Hills and the coast of South Australia from Lake Alexandrina to the southern edge of Adelaide, as well as Kangaroo Island.
History
Mayo was first created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat had been held by the Liberal Party continuously until 2016, but it had always been a high-profile target for minor parties.
The seat was won in 1984 by Alexander Downer, son of former cabinet minister Alec Downer and grandson of former premier Sir John Downer. He retained the seat safely in 1987 but was challenged by the Democrats in 1990, with the minor party polling over 20%. Downer retained the seat with a 6% margin.
A redistribution and a fall in the Democrats vote saw him retain the seat easily in 1993 and 1996. In 1998, the Democrats ran John Schumann, best known as lead singer of the band Redgum. Schumann achieved over 22% of the primary vote and reduced Downer’s two-party margin to 1.7%, the closest the Democrats ever came to winning a House of Representatives seat.
Another favourable redistribution in 2001 helped Downer win re-election, and he was untroubled at the 2004 and 2007 elections. Downer had served a disastrous year as Leader of the Opposition from 1994 to 1995 and served as Foreign Minister for the entirety of the Howard government from 1996 until 2007. After the defeat of the Howard government in 2007, Downer moved to the backbench and retired in 2008 to serve as United Nations envoy to Cyprus.
The ensuing by-election was contested between Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs and Greens candidate Lynton Vonow, as the ALP did not stand a candidate. The Greens polled 21%, and the Liberal vote dropped to 40%. After preferences, Briggs won 53% of the vote, and retained the seat by a slim margin.
Jamie Briggs was re-elected in 2010 and 2013.
Briggs lost Mayo in 2016 to Nick Xenophon Team candidate Rebekha Sharkie.
Sharkie was forced to resign from parliament in early 2018 due to her late citizenship renunciation in 2016, but she was re-elected at the resulting by-election as a representative of the renamed Centre Alliance. Sharkie was re-elected for full terms in 2019 and 2022. By 2022, the Centre Alliance had pretty much disappeared as a political party outside Mayo, not contesting any other races in either house.
Assessment
Rebekha Sharkie has solidified her position in Mayo and should be comfortably re-elected.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Rebekha Sharkie | Centre Alliance | 36,500 | 31.4 | -2.8 |
Allison Bluck | Liberal | 31,411 | 27.0 | -10.6 |
Marisa Bell | Labor | 21,051 | 18.1 | +4.5 |
Greg Elliott | Greens | 13,705 | 11.8 | +2.5 |
Tonya Scott | One Nation | 4,775 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
Samantha McGrail | United Australia | 4,089 | 3.5 | +0.3 |
Padma Chaplin | Animal Justice | 1,929 | 1.7 | -0.4 |
Jacob Van Raalte | Liberal Democrats | 1,424 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
Mark Neugebauer | Federation Party | 1,330 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
Informal | 6,176 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Rebekha Sharkie | Centre Alliance | 72,355 | 62.3 | +7.1 |
Allison Bluck | Liberal | 43,859 | 37.7 | -7.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Marisa Bell | Labor | 59,955 | 51.6 | +4.1 |
Allison Bluck | Liberal | 56,259 | 48.4 | -4.1 |
Booths have been divided into five areas, primarily based on local government boundaries. three groups cover all of the polling booths in a single council area: Kangaroo Island, Mount Barker and Onkaparinga (although the latter also covers a small part of Mitcham council area).
Sharkie won a clear majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in every area, ranging from 58.1% on Kangaroo Island to 67.4% in Mount Barker.
Voter group | ALP prim | CA 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
Adelaide Hills | 14.0 | 65.2 | 16,794 | 14.5 |
Onkaparinga | 26.5 | 58.7 | 13,812 | 11.9 |
South | 17.4 | 63.4 | 12,966 | 11.2 |
Mount Barker | 14.9 | 67.4 | 12,453 | 10.7 |
Kangaroo Island | 17.6 | 58.1 | 1,188 | 1.0 |
Pre-poll | 18.3 | 61.4 | 39,671 | 34.1 |
Other votes | 18.0 | 60.2 | 19,330 | 16.6 |
Election results in Mayo at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Centre Alliance vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Centre Alliance, the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Technically that’s not true because if the libs lost votes to sharpie instead of Labor but yea they probably will
Senate group total primary votes at present.
Liberal 28.73%
Labor 32.81%
Greens 15.95%
One Nation 5.33%
If replicated in the HoR without Sharkie then this would be a Labor seat.