GRN 3.7% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Stephen Bates, since 2022.
Geography
Central Brisbane. Brisbane covers the Brisbane CBD and inner suburbs north of the Brisbane River including Fortitude Valley, Paddington, Ashgrove, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Clayfield and Hendra.
History
Brisbane is an original federation electorate. It had been held by the ALP for most of its history interrupted by short periods of conservative MPs, up until the last decade.
The seat was first won by Thomas Macdonald-Paterson, who joined the Protectionists when Parliament first sat. Macdonald-Paterson was not endorsed by the local Protectionists for the 1903 election, and the split in the protectionist vote gave the seat to the ALP’s Millice Culpin.
Culpin was himself defeated after one term by Justin Foxton of the Anti-Socialist Party (formerly the Free Traders). Foxton served as a minister from 1909 until his defeat at the 1910 election by the ALP’s William Finlayson.
Finlayson held the seat until 1919, when he was defeated by Donald Charles Cameron of the Nationalist Party. Cameron held the seat until 1931, when he lost the seat against the tide of conservative gains against the Scullin Government. Cameron returned to serve one term in the neighbouring seat of Lilley from 1934 to 1937.
The ALP held the seat continuously for the next fourty-four years, with only two MPs holding the seat from 1931 until 1975. George Lawson won the seat in 1931 and held it until 1961. He served as Minister for Transport from 1941 until the 1943 election. The seat was then held by Manfred Cross until his defeat by Liberal Peter Johnson in 1975. Johnson defeated Cross again in 1977 before Cross won the seat back in 1980.
Cross held the seat until his retirement in 1990, when the ALP chose Arch Bevis, who held the seat for the next twenty years. While Brisbane has never been held by a large margin, it came closest to being lost to the Liberals in 1996, when Bevis’ margin was cut to 0.36%.
In 2010, the Liberal National Party ran former MP Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro had served as member for the marginal seat of Petrie from 1996 until she was defeated in 2007.
Gambaro won the seat in 2010 with a 5.7% swing, and was re-elected with a further 3.2% swing in 2013.
Gambaro retired in 2016, and the LNP’s Trevor Evans won. Evans was re-elected in 2019.
Evans lost in 2022 to Greens candidate Stephen Bates, who won the seat despite coming in third place on primary votes.
Assessment
Brisbane was one of the most interesting and complex seats in 2022, with Bates winning from third place.
It seems likely that Bates will benefit from a personal vote boost, which will likely make it easier for him to stay clear of Labor at the next election.
Bates’ margin against the LNP is also very slim, and a relatively small swing would see the LNP regain the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 41,032 | 37.7 | -10.1 |
| Madonna Jarrett | Labor | 29,652 | 27.3 | +2.8 |
| Stephen Bates | Greens | 29,641 | 27.2 | +4.9 |
| Trevor Hold | One Nation | 2,429 | 2.2 | -0.3 |
| Tiana Kennedy | Animal Justice | 2,135 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Justin Marc Knudson | United Australia | 2,102 | 1.9 | +0.5 |
| Anthony Bull | Liberal Democrats | 1,807 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Informal | 2,312 | 2.1 | -0.4 |
2022 three-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 45,125 | 41.5 | -9.4 |
| Stephen Bates | Greens | 32,741 | 30.1 | +6.4 |
| Madonna Jarrett | Labor | 30,932 | 28.4 | +3.1 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Stephen Bates | Greens | 58,460 | 53.7 |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 50,338 | 46.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Madonna Jarrett | Labor | 59,183 | 54.4 | +9.3 |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 49,615 | 45.6 | -9.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- Central – Brisbane, Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Spring Hill, Windsor.
- North East – Ascot, Clayfield, Hendra, Stafford
- West – Alderley, Ashgrove, Ithaca, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Paddington, Red Hill
There are two different thresholds that decide who wins Brisbane: firstly, who is leading in the race between Labor and the Greens? And then, after preferences, does the LNP have a majority against the main progressive opponent?
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the Greens won a majority in two out of three areas, with 58.5% in the west and 61.7% in the centre. The LNP won 54.5% in the south-east. The Greens also won 55.2% of the pre-poll votes and the LNP won 50.8% of the other vote.
On a primary vote basis, the Greens outpolled Labor in two out of three areas, with the Greens primary vote peaking at 34.5% in the centre. Labor outpolled the Greens in the north-east, but that was also Labor’s worst area.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 30.2 | 29.4 | 58.5 | 20,024 | 18.4 |
| North East | 21.3 | 24.7 | 45.5 | 14,894 | 13.7 |
| Central | 34.5 | 27.4 | 61.7 | 13,777 | 12.7 |
| Pre-poll | 28.1 | 27.9 | 55.2 | 31,934 | 29.4 |
| Other votes | 23.7 | 26.3 | 49.2 | 28,169 | 25.9 |
Election results in Brisbane at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Agree nimalan, Labor did a lot better with their sandbagging strategy in seats like Aston, bennelong and tangney.
As a result, when the swing ballooned out, additional seats such as petrie and Hughes which were not on the party’s target list were seen as a ‘bonus’
In my opinion none of these minor parties have a sustainable base, not even the Greens despite being the largest minor party.
The Greens voter base is a loosely connected coalition of environmentalists and third party voters, and the party itself is a lot more leftist than its voter base.
I haven’t really interacted much with Greens voters but if what I see online from the activist base of the Greens which makes up a lot of the party now then they don’t seem like nice people at all.
The Greens, along with the LNP, were too optimistic about winning seats. When you’re optimistic about winning seats, don’t forget to sandbag or defend your own marginal seats.
In Brisbane, there was a narrow gap between Labor and Greens in 2022 on primary votes and at the 3CP level. A swing away from the LNP was foreseen. Even if the Greens vote was unchanged, a shift of votes from LNP to Labor would’ve put Labor ahead of the Greens after preferences. Greens preferences helped Labor overtake LNP (whose vote dipped significantly thanks to the unpopularity of Dutton).
@ Votante
I think the Greens made a big miscalculation that the LNP vote would not fall. They assumed it was already rockbottom due to Scomo unpopularity in 2022 among such demographics. Secondly, they assumed that Dutton’s home state advantage will mean that the Lib vote will either slightly rise or remain steady the optimism in Moreton was also based on the fact that there will be an ALP to LIB swing which could knock Labor out of the 2CP.
As a greenie I will say the issues with the party is that aren’t pragmatic enough, and have moved to far to the left on certain issues.
Agree wolfbow, the greens more extreme stances on issues such as Palestine have turned off the more affluent voters in the teal seats who may have switched to Labor instead
I think a major problem with the Greens is that they are simultaneously trying to appeal to two different groups with different interests. You’ve got the teal-type voters who don’t like the party’s economics but are more supportive on social issues, and the outer suburban, working class traditional labor base, who are more interested in the economics but aren’t as progressive on social issues. This is a core, unresolved strategic dilemma for them that makes doing anything functional hard.
Yoh An I’d actually argue Palestine is an issue that unites these groups, it’s the sort of issue that campus socialists and particularly muslim but generally CALD groups in the outer suburbs support.
The Greens’ lost support in the inner city coincided with their pursuit of more working-class, CALD voters. Moreton and Wills were on their radar. They suffered swings in the Brisbane, Grififfth and Melbourne but got swings in working class electorates and in suburbs with many low-income renters even in ones with relatively few Muslims. Some examples include Fraser, Chifley and Greenway. There was a ‘suburbanisation’ of the Greens vote.
I think that a lot of university students, renters and low-income earners, who form a part of the Greens support base, have been pushed out of the city centre following the post-pandemic reopening of the economy. Brisbane isn’t exactly cheap to rent in.
@Nimalan, Ironically, a drop in the LNP vote was one factor that helped remove the Greens. A strong-ish LNP vote (relative to Labor) would help the Greens in Brisbane as it meant Labor would fall to third place and Labor’s preferences would help the Greens, like in 2022. For a lot of the term, I thought the Labor vs LNP result would be narrower because generally first-term governments suffer swings and also inflation and interest rate rises of 2022 and 2023 would create animosity towards Labor.
@ Votante
I agree the Greens did well in Suburban working class areas including Spence which is quite Anglo and had a very strong No vote for the voice referendum. The chance that the LNP would miss out on the 2CP here is less likely than Griffith but not as far fetched as Ryan. I think the Greens did not have a strategy to lift their primary vote in the Brisbane seats.