Brisbane – Australia 2025

Closer to Brisbane’s CBD is a mix of inner-city neighbourhoods, including the entertainment hospots of Fortitude Valley and Teneriffe. This correlates with the high Greens vote. The northern and western parts are more suburban, wealthier and strongly Liberal voting. Unlike Ryan, Brisbane was not a safe blue-ribbon Liberal seat before 2022.

Labor was quite close in 2022. It seemed that Labor would win with preferences from ON/UAP/LDP going to Labor before the Greens, and then Labor overtaking the LNP with Green preferences. On election night, it was clear that the LNP had lost this. I was a bit surprised that the Greens won this following the full distribution of preferences.

I rate this seat as the most likely Greens seat to flip in 2025. The gap between Labor and the Greens wasn’t big in 2022. Labor could be competitive if Labor wins over ex-LNP voters and/or the LNP vote drops to third. At the 2023 NSW election, Labor was in contention for Balmain because of a retiring Greens member and a ‘rising tide lifting all boats’ scenario. The difference in 2025 is that federal Labor will be on the defensive rather than offensive nationwide.

@Votante

My understanding about PHON and UAP preferences is that those who preference Labor over Greens would also put the Libs over Labor hence would not help Labor at the 3pp stage. Meanwhile some voters preference greens over both majors just because anti-establishment. Hence at 3pp stage, Labor does worse than the Liberals and the Greens on PHON and UAP preferences at the 3pp stage (probably different story in a head on 2pp like Cooper Wills Melbourne)

And overall they are really undisciplined in preferencing anyway

I suspect Labor maybe on the defensive in QLD with increasing unpopularity of state Labor doing brand damage to the Federal level (remember 2010 with Anna Bligh’s unpopularity). If that is the case Blair maybe at risk so Labor may need to shift resources to defend that seat and will let this seat pass as the Greens are not going to back Libs in a minority parliament anyway.
@ Votante, see my comments in the Ryan thread, usually when the Greens/Labor are a close second/third the gap grows over time especially with favourable demographic trends in these seats and the Greens MP building a personal vote examples include Maiwar, Ballina and Prahran.

brisbane wont fall to labor. in a governtm year. they cant dislodge any other greens members and the greens usually pickup votes from labor except when labor is coming from opposition. this seat will be redistributed in 2025 and it will lose its labor voting areas in the south to Ryan making it safer for the lnp if they are able to recapture it. ryan however will become safer for the left vote and the greens may hang on there

@Nimalan I’d say Blair would be the only seat at risk with Dutton not likely to be the most attractive to voters in Ryan and Brisbane, neither would formerly marginal seats like Moreton and Griffith.

The LNP may just give up on Brisbane, Ryan and Grififth and orient their focus to sandbagging their own Queensland seats, if not having a crack at Blair. This means the LNP vote will retreat. The LNP will most likely come first on primaries (because of vote splitting between Labor/Greens). Labor has little chance of winning unless their vote surges and/or the LNP falls to third place. The Greens losing a seat won at a general election still hasn’t happened yet, but the closest I’ve seen is Balmain.

I’d say Labor has a reason to shift resources to Queensland to bolster their share of seats (perhaps by winning Longman or Bonner) and improve their margins in existing seats.

@Nimalan, the bad result in Queensland for Labor in 2010 was due to the knifing of Kevin Rudd and so Labor lost normally LNP seats that they gained in 2007. I think Anna Bligh and Queensland Labor were unpopular (until the Brisbane floods the following summer) and this might’ve weighed on federal Labor. Add to that, Brisbane was redistributed eastward and its margin was shaved after taking in affluent suburbs e.g. Ascot, Hamilton.

@ Dan M, agree Blair is the only seat in QLD that Labor needs to be concerned about. I dont think any of the Greens held seats are at risk from Dutton neither is Moreton or even Lilley which came close in 2019.
@ Votante, yes the knifing of Kevin Rudd played a role in 2010 but so did Anna Bligh as she had privatized Assets without a mandate. Federal Labor criticized the LNP for running a proxy state election that year. The Bad results in Sydney that year was due to NSW Labor woes doing brand damage. Yes the 2010 redistribution was critical to the result in Brisbane as it took elite suburbs east of Breakfast Creek, That is partly the reason why Teresa Gambaro chose to run in Brisbane rather than her old seat of Petrie. On the 1996 boundaries Brisbane included West End etc and was very left-leaning and one of two seats that Labor retained in QLD. Personally, i feel Labor should shift resources firstly to sandbag Blair and then if they want to go hunting first Leichardt and then Bonner before any other seats. I feel Longman, Petrie maybe harder in Moreton Bay Region Dutton maybe seen as the hometown Boy in a Parochial state. Forde is also a seat worth watching if it is a good night for Labor.

Brisbane’s maybe the best prospect for Labor on paper, but MCM is the one Labor has pinned to their dartboards. LNP won’t win any of the inner Brisbane seats again, at least not in the foreseeable future.

The redistribution in 2025 will see Brisbane lose it’s labor voting booths in the south and gain lnp voting areas in the north. Given the lnp are coming from opposition it may be possible to recover Brisbane however Ryan will become more left taking in labor voting booths from Dickson and Brisbane

why would brisbane gain voters in the north? that makes no sense.

@fugitive because its going to shed voters from the south?

Furtive, I think John implies moving Ryan eastwards to absorb more of the inner suburbs (like Paddington and Milton) given that it is under quota. That way, Brisbane follows Lilley and Dickson as both move north to absorb the surplus enrolment in Longman and Petrie.

However, I think a better move is to have Ryan move westwards, absorbing the remainder of BCC and then Brisbane follows moving closer to Ferny Grove.

okay i get it. if lilley and/or dickson also move further out then it works.

@yph an based on where I believe the new division will be I reckon they will n/ne. I am not counting the lnp out in Brisbane and Ryan because there will be a honeymoon period for the likely newly elected lnp state govt and that will help them federally

@Votante
No way LNP is giving up on regaining Ryan. Not a chance. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

Brisbane… Labor vote will probably fall, LNP vs Greens contest, Greens can probably hold on.

@Furtive, dream on.

Unlike Griffith, Ryan and brisbane were lost by an unpopular govt. Lnp v green has never been tested with the greens being the incumbent and those two members are virtual nobodys

“Lnp v green has never been tested with the greens being the incumbent”

Except for Maiwar, Prahran, Ballina…

That’s 1/3 of all state Greens seats.

@ben raue sorry I meant to say at a federal level I’m talking about in QLD. And to be fair ballina is greens vs nat. And the others were green vs liberal

Well sure if you say “oh that doesn’t count” for almost all examples then yes, there won’t be any examples.

i was talking lnp v greens in meaning in qld obviously the liberals and nationals have tried to vs them at a state level in vic and in ballina. as ive previously mentioned in the ballina and by extension richmond threads the liberals should be contesting those seats as well as the nationals in richmond and instead in ballina as i believe they would fare better as the nationals clearly cannot win those seats back. the same case for hunter.

Following on from recent council election results, I believe Brisbane may well be in play if the LNP can select a decent, moderate type of candidate to challenge Steven Bates. The same would also be true of Ryan.

I wonder if any of the current BCC councillors may be willing to make the jump and seek the nomination for either seat (for Brisbane, Enoggera councillor Andrew Wines could be a good fit since he represents most of the western part and has held on to a marginal ward despite strong challenges from Labor and the Greens). Alternatively, Trevor Evans could also seek a rematch as he doesn’t appear to have too much baggage unlike other MP’s who lost their seats.

@ Yoh An
Agree generally it is certainly not lost for the LNP permenently. However, i dont think Dutton will play well here, a seat that is socially progressive and highly educated that is passionate about climate change. The BCC Libs are more moderate and will appeal better than the Federal counterparts. Interestingly, the NE of this seat is the only area where Labor outpolled the Greens on ordinary votes but in the BCC election in Hamilton Ward the Greens outpolled Labor for the first time.

It will think alongside Higgins and Warringah, Libs will still be competitive but would gradually be less favorable to the Libs in TPP in comparison to the federal TPP (unless most of the LNP become moderate)