Capricornia – Australia 2025

This area mirrors trends like you see in the US such as West Virginia and Kentucky – coal mining areas and regional/rural areas deserting Democrats/ALP. I often imagine another timeline where Kirstin Livermore recontested the seat in 2013 and the extent to which her personal vote and input in Labor policy might have stopped the precipitous decline against the ALP. I imagine she would’ve retained in 2013, gotten a swing to her in 2016, but 2019 would’ve been anyone’s guess and a guaranteed LNP gain if she retired. I think the ALP should still try and invest in rural and regional areas as a long-term project, but I’m not sure coal mining areas like here will be receptive to an ALP message on climate so long it’s one they are trying to sell to Macnamara, Grayndler etc.

Perhaps once the coal industry kicks the bucket, the locals might change their worldview. Particularly if there’s a hard landing, and I’m sorry to say that there probably will be, regardless of which major party is in power.

Labor just missed out on Capricornia in 2016 but I guess if they did win, it would’ve been like Herbert – lost in 2019 after one term.

I agree that the coal industry is undergoing a long-term economic decline. I’m looking at it from an economic standpoint, not an environmentalist one. Coal-mining communities will be discontent and turned into rustbelts. The management of the transition to newer energy sources and economic diversification of industries (whatever they may be, even if it’s nuclear) can have political conequences. The LNP’s nuclear energy proposition can prove popular here, even though the economic and logistical details don’t look that clear to me.

@Votante The LNP’s Nuclear energy policy will score them points in nearby Flynn as well, maybe even more so there than here.

As well as that, there’s a lot of talk regarding Gladstone and how it’s going to be turned into some renewable energy hub in the future but if/how/when that transition occurs is up in the air and isn’t something on most people’s minds at the moment. A lot of proposals and ideas but not a lot of concrete plans or action.

@GPPS you have to remember the Democrats were once the more conservative party and the Republicans were once the more progressive one (Democrats supported slavery and were popular in the South while the Republicans were abolitionist and were popular in the North). While a reversal had begun in the 1930s it wasn’t until the 1960s that the parties fully switched, and it only solidified with Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. By then, the South became mostly Republican while the North became mostly Democrat. So the working-class Southern towns in the U.S that deserted the Democrats for the Republicans aren’t really the same as the working-class mining towns that walked away from Labor and left them for the LNP and One Nation, because Labor has never been the conservative party in Australia, but it wasn’t as progressive as before and it lost voters in these areas because they were out-of-touch with local issues. Net-zero is something that has majority support in every electorate nationwide, but banning coal doesn’t. And Labor being neutral on coal didn’t help in seats like Capricornia and Flynn.

The rise and fall of One Nation at federal elections up the coast of Queensland:

Capricornia:
2019: 16.98%
2022: 14.60% (–2.38%)

Dawson:
2019: 13.09%
2022: 13.27% (+0.18%)

Flynn:
2016: 17.15%
2019: 19.60% (+2.45%)
2022: 12.23% (–7.37%)

Herbert:
2013: 0.83%
2016: 13.53% (+12.70%)
2019: 11.09% (–2.44%)
2022: 5.27% (–5.82%)

Hinkler:
2016: 19.16%
2019: 14.80% (–4.36%)
2022: 8.71% (–6.09%)

Wide Bay:
2016: 15.60%
2019: 10.83% (–4.73%)
2022: 10.20% (–0.63%)

The One Nation vote never reached over 10% in Leichhardt and the party hasn’t ever contested Kennedy. Furthermore, the party has never reached over 10% in any seat based on the Sunshine Coast, nor have they in McPherson or Moncrieff on the Sunshine Coast. Fadden will be discussed when I analyse Brisbane.

The rise and fall of the One Nation vote in rural and outback Queensland:

Blair:
2016: 15.58%
2019: 16.80% (+1.90%)
2022: 9.99% (–6.81%)

Groom:
2019: 13.09%
2022: 9.56% (–3.53%)

Maranoa:
2016: 17.82% (TCP: 34.14%)
2019: 14.62% (–3.20%) (TCP: 27.51%, –6.63%)
2022: 11.89% (–2.73%) (did not make the TCP count)

Wright:
2016: 20.90%
2019: 14.01% (–6.89%)
2022: 14.25% (+0.24%)

One Nation hasn’t contested Kennedy since 2007.

And now, the rise and fall of One Nation in South East Queensland:

Fadden:
1998: 12.79%
2001: 6.38% (–6.42%)
2004: 2.01% (–5.22%)
2007: 0.83% (–1.23%)
2010: 1.60% (+0.79%)
2013: 0.64% (–0.96%)
2016: 11.96% (+11.32%)
2019: 8.57% (–3.47%)
2022: 8.68% (+0.11%)
2023 (by-election): 8.90% (+0.22%)

Forde:
2019: 11.81%
2022: 8.01% (–3.80%)

Longman:
2016: 9.42%
2018 (by-election): 15.91% (+6.50%)
2019: 13.22% (+3.80%)
2022: 8.25% (–4.97%)

One Nation never got over 10% of the vote in Bonner, Bowman, Brisbane, Dickson, Fairfax, Fisher, Griffith, Lilley, McPherson, Moncrieff, Moreton, Oxley (current boundaries), Petrie, Rankin or Ryan.

Interestingly Fadden looks like it’s the only federal seat in the entire country that One Nation has contested at every election since the party’s foundation in 1997. Note that all of these only show years where they have consistently fielded candidates (i.e after any skipped years but not before). In Blair for example they didn’t field a candidate in 2007, 2010 or 2013, but did in 1998, 2001 and 2004.

All of this shows that One Nation does well in seats where mining and agriculture are big industries. Geographically, One Nation does best in rural towns in Queensland, and has a relatively strong vote in every regional city except Cairns, the Gold Coast, Mount Isa and the Sunshine Coast. In Brisbane, the party does best in and around Caboolture and Strathpine (Longman) and in the southern part of Logan City.

The urban One Nation vote is actually increasing very slightly but it’s still only minuscule compared to the vote in the regions. The slight decrease One Nation vote in some provincial and outer-urban seats seems to be going to the UAP, while the big collapse in the regions is going back to the LNP and Labor after One Nation chose to focus more on anti-lockdown politics and ultraconservative social policies than the right-wing populist nationalism and strong stances on immigration and terrorism it focused on previously, while continuing to focus on climate change scepticism. The modest decrease in the One Nation and KAP vote in Townsville seems to have partially gone to the UAP, but mostly to the LNP, while the swing against Labor went to both the LNP and the Greens.

I agree with Nether Portal regarding mining towns i dont think West Virginia and Kentucky can be compared to the Hunter Region/Central QLD, those two states are much more socially conservative and religious so that would be an issue not just climate politics in the US. The Labor party probably made a mistake in how they handled the Adani mine issue, i think this was driven by the Batman by-election in 2018. They have only partly recovered since then. While Labor supports Net Zero and binding 2030 emissions reduction banning Coal exports is probably political suicide in such seats.

However, the decrease in regional cities isn’t across the board like the big swing against them in rural towns is.

There was a small swing to One Nation in Dawson. Looking at the polling place results, there was a small swing to One Nation in many booths in Mackay. A similar trend can be seen in Cairns (Leichhardt). The swing against One Nation was only small in Gladstone (Flynn), Ipswich (Blair and Oxley), Maryborough (Wide Bay), Rockhampton (Capricornia) and Toowoomba (Groom), but it was bigger in Bundaberg (Hinkler), Gympie (Wide Bay), Hervey Bay (Hinkler) and Townsville (Herbert).

@Nimalan agreed. It will be interesting to see how Labor goes given it’ll have to fend off challenges from the Greens in inner Melbourne (Cooper, Macnamara and Wills) and potentially the seat of Canberra too.

@ NP
Also great analysis on the ONP vote over the years. It would be good to add the 1998 results especially in the Coastal QLD seats. I think they did very well in Wide Bay in 1998. I also agree with you focusing on anti-lockdown politics in 2022 may have helped them in Outer Melbourne, Spence, parts of Western Sydney. However, this is not there usual demographic. Kos Samaras has mentioned that One Nation voters are generally older and wealthier than the Average Australian so there focus like you said on Nationalism, immigration and terrorism probably works better for them. Interestingly, they won a seat at the Victorian Upper House in the Northern Victorian Region which is very agricultural. I think if they work hard they can win a second seat in the Eastern Victoria Region next time.

NP
Interesting analysis BUT the main issue is the size and trendlines of the populist right. In Qld – particularly in the regions it is a crowded space with ON, Katter and various Palmer parties competing for the same sort of voter. What is the cumulative total and trend when they are all added up.

The thing is though: Labor actually lost ground in Townsville in 2022. The LNP’s primary vote increased by almost 10% to reach 47% on primaries and on TPP the swing of more than 3% to the LNP allowed Philip Thompson to win over 61% of the TPP vote, so excluding the Fadden by-election this makes Herbert the second-safest LNP seat after Maranoa, the safest Liberal seat in Queensland and the second-safest seat for any party in Queensland (again, after Maranoa).

While Labor gained a bit of ground in Cairns, Gladstone, Maryborough and along the Whitsunday Coast (Airlie Beach, Hamilton Island and Proserpine), and Labor did indeed manage to get big swings in Bundaberg, Emerald, Hervey Bay, Mackay, Rockhampton and Yeppoon, much of this was offset by the LNP gaining a bit of ground in Bowen and Gympie along with substantial ground in Townsville.

Another problem Labor faces in Queensland is the trend in Indigenous communities. I’ve spoken about this many times before, but just for a quick recap: nationwide, there have been huge swings to the Coalition and against Labor in small remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. In Queensland, for the first time ever the LNP won a majority of the combined TPP vote in Indigenous communities in Leichhardt, while the LNP saw a huge swing to them on Palm Island in Herbert. In Wide Bay, Labor won 58.91% of the TPP vote in Cherbourg, but the TPP swing against Labor was 14.73%.

@Nimalan I’ll have a look at 1998 but yes I recall them doing well in Wide Bay (I think they won Hervey Bay at the 1998 state election). The One Nation vote only increased in 2022 because they contested 149 seats (about three times more than they did in 2019).

@Redistributed the statewide House of Representatives combined total for One Nation, the UAP, KAP, the Liberal Democrats, the Federation Party, the Great Australian Party, the Values Party and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party was 16.24%. For comparison, the LNP vote was 39.64% and the Labor vote was 27.42%.

The right-wing TPP in Herbert, a random seat, was 15.66% (KAP + One Nation + UAP + GAP), though note that there were two independents in Herbert but since I don’t live there and I’ve never heard of them I couldn’t tell you their views.

For reference, the LNP vote in Herbert in 2022 was 47.01% and the Labor vote was 21.60%.

In contrast, the right-wing minor party vote in Herbert in 2019 was 28.41% (One Nation + KAP + UAP + Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party). The LNP vote was 37.11% and the Labor vote was 25.45%, meaning a combined right-wing/far-right alliance would’ve actually outpolled Labor in Herbert in 2019.

The swing against the right-wing populist parties in Herbert in 2019 was 12.75%. The LNP had a swing of 9.90% to them while Labor had a swing against them of 21.60%, but that seems to have also gone to either the LNP or independents because the Greens vote was only up 0.91% to get a primary vote of 8.22%.

In 2022 Herbert had more candidates and became a culling ground for vote shares: the LNP and the Greens were the only parties that contested in 2019 that increased their vote share in 2022.

@Nimalan as for 1998, it saw success for One Nation on the federal and state levels in Queensland.

The One Nation vote in Queensland at the 1998 federal election was 14.35%. At the state election it was 22.68%, the second-highest vote share after Labor, even higher than the Liberal and National votes but not the combined Coalition vote, and the party won 11 seats. A notable example of a person who voted One Nation at the 1998 state election is none other than outspoken conservative and former LNP-turned-One Nation MP George Christensen.

Pauline Hanson nearly won Blair (she finished first ahead of Labor, the Liberals (who ended up winning) and the Nationals), because her old seat of Oxley shed her hometown of Ipswich. Besides Blair, One Nation finished third in all but two seats in Queensland: Dickson and Ryan, where they finished fourth (behind an independent in Dickson and behind a Democrats candidate in Ryan).

As for Wide Bay in particular: One Nation had a primary vote of 26.33%. For comparison, the Nationals had 31.46%, Labor had 28.42% and the Liberals had just 8.28%.

Anyway, on the Australia 2025 I have released an updated version of my target seats map. Feel free to check it out.

@Nether Portal I think most of your points are accurate regarding One Nation. I don’t think it is correct though that One Nation does not have a strong vote on the Gold Coast. This might be true Federally for pockets like McPherson, but not quite the case for Forde and Wright which incorporates parts of Gold Coast’s fringes including Hinterland. There are also Gold Coast state divisions that have been especially strong historically for One Nation.

Albert: 23.8% in 2001, 26.9% in 1998.
Broadwater: 21.4% in 2017, 26.2% in 1998.
Burleigh: 17.0% in 2001, 21.6% in 1998.
Coomera: 20.5% in 2017.
Currumbin: 20.5% in 1998.
Merrimac: 19.87% in 1998.
Mudgeeraba: 17.8% in 2017.
Nerang: 25.13% in 1998.
Southport: 15.2% in 2001, 21.3% in 1998.
Surfers Paradise: 17.4% in 1998.
Theodore: 19.0% in 2017.

Maybe there is something to your thesis about One Nation not doing great in urban divisions though. As ONP’s vote has drastically weakened in some of the aforementioned divisions which are now quite urban. Although still remains strong in some of the less urban, provincial parts of the Gold Coast that have not been radically urbanised in the 20 years from 1998 to 2017.

I think there might be a similar case to be made for One Nation doing well in Sunshine Coast unlike you’ve suggested. Especially in the 1998 Queensland State Election in the divisions of Maroochydore and Mooloolah. And of course in 2017, their state leader Steve Dickson polled 28.6% of the vote in the seat of Buderim.

The drop in the Onp vote can be attributes to the natural shift from right to left.

@SEQ Observer keep in mind though that Steve Dickson was originally an LNP MP representing Buderim so he would’ve had at least some personal vote in 2017.

@John the thing is though it isn’t necessarily a swing from right to left. In Townsville (Herbert) it seems to be the centre-left (Labor), centrists and right-wingers (One Nation and KAP) all swinging to the centre-right (the LNP). I think Philip Thompson is a member of the Conservative/National Right faction of the Liberal Party.