Capricornia – Australia 2025

LNP 6.6%

Incumbent MP
Michelle Landry, since 2013.

Geography
Central Queensland. Capricornia covers the Queensland coast from Rockhampton to just south of Mackay.

History
Capricornia is an original federation electorate. After changing between a number of parties in early decades, the seat was held by the ALP for most of the last half-century, with the exception of two wins by the Country/National Party at particular low-points for the ALP, before the LNP won in 2013.

The seat was first won in 1901 by independent candidate Alexander Paterson. Paterson didn’t run for re-election in 1903, and was succeeded by the ALP’s David Thompson.

Thomson lost in 1906 to the Anti-Socialist Party’s Edward Archer. Archer too was defeated after one term, losing in 1910 to the ALP’s William Higgs.

Higgs was a former Senator for Queensland, who held Capricornia for the next decade. He served as Treasurer in Billy Hughes’ government from 1915 to 1916, resigning over Hughes’ support for conscription. Ironically he later left the ALP in 1920 and ended up in Hughes’ Nationalist Party. He failed to win re-election as a Nationalist in 1922, losing to the ALP’s Frank Forde.

Forde was the state MP for Rockhampton, and rose quickly in the federal Labor ranks. He served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, being promoted to cabinet in the final days of the government in 1931. Forde became Deputy Leader of the ALP in 1932.

Forde contested the leadership of the party in 1935, losing by one vote to John Curtin, having lost support due to his support for Scullin’s economic policies. He served as Minister for the Army during the Second World War on the election of the Curtin government.

Forde became Prime Minister in July 1945 upon the death of John Curtin, and served eight days before losing a leadership ballot to Ben Chifley. He served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence in the aftermath of the Second World War, until he lost Capricornia at the 1946 election, despite the ALP winning a comfortable victory.

Capricornia was won in 1946 by the Liberal Party’s Charles Davidson. Davidson moved to the new seat of Dawson in 1949, and went on to serve as a minister in the Menzies government before retiring in 1963.

Davidson was succeeded in Capricornia in 1949 by Henry Pearce, also from the Liberal Party. Pearce held Capricornia for twelve years, losing in 1961 to the ALP’s George Gray.

Gray held the seat until his death in 1967, and the ensuing by-election was won by Doug Everingham. He served as Minister for Health in the Whitlam government, but lost Capricornia in 1975 to Colin Carige of the National Country Party, winning it back in 1977. Everingham then managed to hold the seat until his retirement in 1984.

He was succeeded in 1984 by Keith Wright, who had been the Labor leader in the Queensland parliament since 1982 and member for Rockhampton since 1969. Wright held Capricornia until 1993, when he was charged with rape, leading to him losing his ALP endorsement. He contested Capricornia as an independent, but lost to ALP candidate Marjorie Henzell.

Henzell held the seat for one term, losing to National candidate Paul Marek in 1996. Marek also held the seat for one term, losing to the ALP’s Kirsten Livermore in 1998. Livermore was re-elected in Capricornia in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010.

Livermore retired in 2013, and the LNP’s Michelle Landry won the seat with a 4.5% swing.

Landry was re-elected in 2016 by a slim 0.6% margin. This seat was the most marginal Coalition seat in the country, thus giving the government its slim majority. Landry won a third term in 2019 with a massive swing, giving her a margin of over 12%, and won comfortable re-election again in 2022.

Candidates

  • Emily Mawson (Labor)
  • Stephen Andrew (Trumpet of Patriots)
  • Cheryl Kempton (One Nation)
  • Kerri Hislop (Family First)
  • Michelle Landry (Liberal National)
  • Mick Jones (Greens)

    • Assessment
    Capricornia is a reasonably safe LNP seat.

    2022 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Michelle Landry Liberal National 35,613 39.4 -1.2
    Russell Robertson Labor 25,330 28.1 +4.3
    Kylee Stanton One Nation 13,179 14.6 -2.4
    Mick Jones Greens 5,302 5.9 +1.0
    Nathan Luke Harding United Australia 3,555 3.9 +0.3
    Ken Murray Independent 3,048 3.4 +0.9
    Zteven Whitty Great Australian Party 1,747 1.9 +1.9
    Steve Murphy Liberal Democrats 1,392 1.5 +1.5
    Paula Ganfield Informed Medical Options 1,126 1.2 +1.3
    Informal 5,904 6.1 -0.2

    2022 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Michelle Landry Liberal National 51,096 56.6 -5.8
    Russell Robertson Labor 39,196 43.4 +5.8

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths in the Isaac Regional Council area have been grouped together. This area has the smallest population but covers the largest areas. A majority of voters live in the Rockhampton council area. Booths in this area have been split between those in the Rockhampton urban areas itself and those outside of it. Booths in the Mackay and Whitsunday areas have been grouped as “North”.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.1% in Rockhampton to 61% in the north.

    One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.8% in Rockhampton to 22.7% in the north.

    Voter group ON prim LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
    Rockhampton 12.8 50.1 14,132 15.7
    North 22.7 61.0 9,464 10.5
    Livingstone 14.2 57.1 7,261 8.0
    Isaacs 21.8 52.8 2,663 2.9
    Pre-poll 13.2 56.3 40,613 45.0
    Other votes 14.0 60.7 16,159 17.9

    Election results in Capricornia at the 2022 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and One Nation.

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    99 COMMENTS

    1. @Nimalan I’ll see what I can do with the maps. One map I’ve wanted to do for a while but never got to actually do was a map titled “What if the NSW state election was during COVID-19 and Gladys Berejiklian was Premier?”. The NSW Coalition was popular even in 2023 (though NSW Labor only got popular when Chris Minns came in) but Gladys has a massive personal appeal mostly courtesy of her response to the pandemic which even Minns said was “excellent”.

    2. Another good one would be “Seats with the most comments on their Tally Room pages”. For 2022 you’d think surely a seat like Kooyong would have heaps of comments, while for 2025 I think at the moment it’s seats like Macnamara and Wills due to the Greens, Deakin and Menzies due to Labor, and Blair and Paterson due to the Coalition.

    3. Thanks NP
      i agree Macnamara and Wills for Greens, Deakin, Menzies, Sturt and Leichardt for Labor and Blair, Paterson, Lyons and Bullwinkle for Coalition.

    5. @ John
      np asked which seats were talked about the most on tallyroom not for me to make a prediction and that was my response.

    6. @John yeah as Nimalan said I was talking about what seats have the most comments. It’s getting late now so the map will probably be tomorrow unless I feel like it tonight.

    7. Just a note to myself. Will post the booths later tonight.
      State seats
      1. All of Keppell
      2. 34% of Burdekin
      3. 78% of Mirani
      4. 80% of Rockhampton

    12. Booths
      1. Allenstown
      2. Alligator Creek
      3. Bakers Creek
      4. Berserker
      5. Carwarral
      6. Chelona
      7. Clermont
      8. Collinsville
      9. Dysart
      10. Emmaus College (Norman Gardens)
      11. Emu Park
      12. Eton
      13. Farnbrorough
      14. Finch Hatton
      15. Frenchville
      16. Glenden
      17. Glenmore
      18. Keppel Sands
      19.Koumala
      20. Lakes Creek
      21. Marian
      22. Middlemount
      23. Mount Archer
      24. Nebo
      25. Norman Gardens
      26. Rockhamption
      27. Ooralea
      28. Park Avenue
      29. Parkhurst
      30. Rockhamption City
      32. Rockhamption south
      33. Sarina Centra
      34. Swaynesville
      35. Taranganba
      36. The Caves
      37. Walkerston
      39 West Rockhampton
      40. Yeppoon

    13. @Nimalan thanks, will calculate now.

      Which seat should we do next? I think Dawson and Hinkler might be interesting since they contain cities that did completely opposite things at this election (Mackay swung massively to the LNP while Bundaberg swung to Labor). I’ll do the safest seats last (Gold Coast seats, Sunshine Coast seats, Groom, Kennedy, Maranoa, Wide Bay).

    14. @ Nether Portal
      Agree lets do Dawson and Hinkler as they have more recent history of being Labor held and often contained Labor state seats in recent time. I will get Dawson done for you today and Hinkler tommorow

    15. State level TPP here (2024):

      * LNP: 55.2%
      * Labor/KAP: 44.8%

      Labor did 1.4% better here on the state level in 2024 than on the federal level in 2022.

      Note that because Mirani was LNP vs KAP, I’ve combined the KAP TCP in those booths with the Labor TPP everywhere else.

    20. State figures over estimate alp vote maybe by 3%.
      It appears qld ec posts 2pp for non classic seats later on do these sums can be revisited then
      Say what were the figures for
      Alp
      Lnp
      Minus Mirani?

    21. Driving from Rocky to Yeppoon today, I saw a very large billboard for Cheryl Kempton, the One Nation candidate for this seat. There seems to be no information about her online.

    22. @AA at least 14 people on Facebook are named Cheryl Kempton. Not sure if that gives much though.

      Can’t actually find anything online about her, not even on the One Nation website.

    23. I know, I tried looking for her online, the only thing that comes up is a FB page called “Cheryl Kempton for Capricornia”, created a week ago with no posts. Seems weird for her to put up a massive billboard with no information about her online.

    26. @Votante
      Because Palmer has no organisation backing him, he needs candidates who are well known in their local area and ambitious. That’s how Jacqui Lambi4e was inflicted on an undeserving electorate. So it’s the same for Andrew. He was on the way out anyway and switched to Katter’s Party, but LNP stood a serious candidate in Mirani and won easily.
      Hanson has a similar problem, it where she’s got into trouble too.

    27. Almost certainly the one and the same. Makes sense given he’s occupied the same political real estate (PHON, KAP, now TOP).

    29. Your point is taken, Ben. I meant the ideological political real estate, insofar as the Trumpets of Clive could be considered “ideological”.

    30. Re Andrew
      Onp had a sitting mp they dumped him for not being extreme enough and lost the seat. Now is you are into conspiracy theories this was done to give the lnp a seat…. Qld?????

    31. The web link above confirms it’s Stephen Andrew the ex-state MP. I’m not sure if he fell out with KAP or just used them to try to retain his state seat. This could be ToP’s best result given his time as a state MP, though his old electorate was entirely outside Rockhampton.

    32. Geographically, the state seat of Mirani and the federal seat of Capricornia share a lot of territory, although I will grant you the lions share of voters will be from Rockhampton proper.

      Either way, he’s not winning. Lucky to get above 6%

    33. The mood for change in Capricornia is very interesting. Today’s Sunday Mail has a cartoon with Dutton ringing Crusifull saying he is concerned about 3 seats in QLD. Leichhardt, Capricornia and Dickson. In the 2024 The LNP won Rockhampton with a primary vote of only 28.5%. Labor nearly held on and the mood in Rockhampton is very similar. Crusifull has but been very visible in this campaign and the LNP State Member Donna Kirkland has not publicly endorsed or campaigned with Michelle Landry LNP. Landry is a old school National member and sits in the Nation party room in Canberra. The Labor candidate Emily Mawson is 28 and the daughter of a coal miner. Mawson beat Helen Madell for Labor preselection . Michelle Landry if not beaten this time will probably resign next time and Mawson will more than likely win . I presume that is Labor plan to blood Mawson and get her game ready. There is only a 6.6 % margin and it’s very feasible that Labor could get a double digit swing In Rockhampton alone. Mawson is everywhere and her appeal to the under 40 Demo is what could make this seat very interesting. Voters under 45 are in the majority in Capricornia and more so In Rockhampton. Landry is looking her age and is the direct opposite of Emily Mawson and this was always safe Labor untill Landry won in her second try. Mawson coming from a coal family background has well and truly nullified any anger towards Labor not supporting the CQ mining Industries. Capricornia is a sleeper and may turn back to Labor sooner than planned.

    34. Arry Oh
      There is a lot of Capricornia beyond Rocky. Hard to see Michelle Landry getting rolled this time. ALP ‘coal’ members/candidates will increasingly be between a rock a hard coal face – pardon the pun – as time goes on. Queensland coastal boundaries are so messy and Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn are so under quota that 2028 could ve a very different playing field after the redistribution

    35. @Arry Oh:
      Michelle Landry’s history in Capricornia is she’s never won in Rocky, but she has won everywhere else.
      Another thing, Landry is the only person born and bred in Rockhampton to have ever won Capricornia afaik, certainly no Labor rep was ever born and bred there, including Forde, Gray, Everingham, Keith Wright [who the ALP likes to forget], Marjorie Henzell or Kirsten Livermore, who were all blow ins..

    36. Redistributed. Rockhampton is the core vote for Labor and if Labor get a double digit swing in Rockhampton , Labor will drag this back to a Labor town next election. The Rockhampton LNP MP Donna Kirkland who only scaped in on the the preferences of the former Labor Mayor who ran as an independent has had a major falling out with Landry and has refused to help her campaign. If you don’t live in Rockhampton you have no idea how this town despises The National party which Landry is a member of. Landry is gone, maybe not this time but next time she wil be long gone.

    37. @Arry Oh, why do the locals feel so strongly against the Nats?

      I visited Rocky last year, and I must admit, it does look as though the town has seen better days. And it’s a shame, as there is an awful lot of potential there, Olympic rowing aside.
      The Criterion Hotel was amazing, and I enjoyed the Botanical Gardens too. Also, the rodeo ring at the Great Western Hotel was not something I ever expected to see!

      But it looks as though the Rocky CBD is really struggling – I saw a handful of high-end places, and a lot of dollar stores, and almost nothing in between those two extremes.

      With the shiny new shopping centre across the river, and with home delivery, I imagine that was a big blow to many businesses. But working from home was likely the next uppercut. If there is no reason to visit the CBD for retail or as part of your job, well, that takes away most of the reason for the CBD to exist.

    38. Formerly from the electorate (Yeppoon)
      @Ryoma – the Rocky CBD has looked like that for as long as I can remember. Even 30 years ago it was far from vibrant – but yes lots of potential. It should be a much bigger regional centre, and I’ve always been a strong advocate for the area.

      I think this seat is Landry’s until she retires. Rocky being Labor heartland has changed a bit – my dad is living proof. His success and quality of life is largely due to strong union membership and Labor policies and was a card carrying Labor member. But Sky News is free up there, and he’s now all in on Dutton; and unions being the devils work. I know far too many people like this.

      That aside, Landry is seen as an effective MP. I owned a business in Yeppoon and she was frequently out and about and engaging with people and businesses. She was always affable and likeable and good at taking credit for any projects in the electorate. If she survived 2022, I think she will survive 2025 easily.

      I thought Lauga would have survived the last state election though, so maybe my personal biases are clouding judgement, I always enjoyed working with both women and both were great at giving local businesses their patronage.

    39. With Matt Canavan running for the Nationals leadership, is this seat his likely path into the House of Representatives?

    40. @Real Talk potentially but he may not even get elected leader. He’s not very popular.

    41. youd think so but first thered need to be a seat. also given the nats arent a governing party much like the greens they dont need to be in the lower house as much but yes he should run as soon as there is a seat available as theres no point wasting a sure thing senate spot on someone who could win a LH seat

    42. Canavan couldn’t win a seat like Capricornia even if he was able to push Landry out. What’s more likely is Barnaby’s prostate diagnosis is worse than he’s let on, and he’ll run in a New England byelection as leader, imo.

    43. @Gympie ALP barely broke 45% in Capricornia during an unprecedented landslide. Caravan would be fine here.

    44. @Bumbalo
      Some landslide. The Liberal Party vote collapsed, Labor barely improved.
      Landry has a big following in the seat outside Rocky, that’s the only reason it isn’t a Labor seat.

    45. @Bumbalo Michelle Landry has a strong personal vote here. It will be very close once she retires, I’d honestly tip a Labor gain. Labor has a strong base in Rocky and some of the mining towns. Michelle Landry has a strong following in areas around Yeppoon, they’d probably swing towards Labor if she retires in an election with the LNP on the nose.

    46. 93,000 cast so far, out of 115,000 enrolled. Perhaps the roll needs updating?
      Anyway, Landry barely won 2 Rocky booths, smashed it everywhere else not called Moranbah.
      PHON got 15.51%.

    47. @Gympie so +2.1 is a bare improvement but -3.5 is a complete collapse? If the primary vote helps you come to terms with what happened then alright.

      Anyway Canavan is more than capable of winning here. I can’t speak for what Rockhampton and Central QLD was decades ago but it’s in a sorry state now, full of cookers right up Canavan’s alley, and the LNP will continue to gain ground here just as they did at the state election. A well-known Labor candidate, probably a former Mayor or councillor, could make it closer. But they haven’t exactly been thrilled to put their hands up recently.

    48. There’s at least 7,000 votes yet to be counted in Capricornia. Which would leave the turnout pretty much the same as last time.

    49. @Laine
      “”Anyway Canavan is more than capable of winning here. I can’t speak for what Rockhampton and Central QLD was decades ago …””
      Rocky has always been a Labor town. Canavan being a Catholic might help him in the town, but it won’t help him in the hinterland. Then there’s the circumstances of how Michelle Landry leaves. If she’s seen to be forced out, how can Canavan win, since Landry has substantial support in Rocky, just not enough to win a majority in the city.
      It would need a happy confluence of events, say Labor made a bad pick, Albanese had a horror run and Trump had a series of foreign policy successes to the point that it was counterproductive for Labor to demonise him, imo.

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