LNP 3.1%
Incumbent MP
Terry Young, since 2019.
Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.
History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.
Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.
In 2010, Jon Sullivan was defeated by Liberal National candidate Wyatt Roy. Roy was elected at the age of 20 in 2010, and is the youngest ever member of the House of Representatives. Roy was elected to a second term in 2013. Roy lost in 2016 to Labor candidate Susan Lamb.
Lamb was forced to resign from parliament in early 2018 due to her late citizenship renunciation in 2016, but she was re-elected at the resulting by-election.
Lamb’s by-election success was not repeated in 2019, when she lost to Liberal National candidate Terry Young. Young was re-elected in 2022.
Assessment
Longman is a marginal LNP seat that could be in play if Labor’s support in Queensland picks up.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Terry Young | Liberal National | 41,253 | 38.2 | -0.4 |
| Rebecca Fanning | Labor | 34,036 | 31.5 | -2.6 |
| Ross Taylor | One Nation | 8,917 | 8.3 | -5.0 |
| Earl Snijders | Greens | 7,814 | 7.2 | +0.5 |
| Nigel David Quinlan | Legalise Cannabis | 6,025 | 5.6 | +5.6 |
| Stefanie Alexis Sutherland | United Australia | 5,949 | 5.5 | +2.2 |
| Paula Gilbard | Animal Justice | 2,060 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Jens Lipponer | Liberal Democrats | 2,011 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 5,677 | 5.0 | -0.9 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Terry Young | Liberal National | 57,359 | 53.1 | -0.2 |
| Rebecca Fanning | Labor | 50,706 | 46.9 | +0.2 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone. Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture-Morayfield and Burpengary.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Pumicestone (55.5%) and the west (58.6%) while Labor won in the more populous Caboolture-Morayfield (53.9%) and Burpengary (51.6%). The LNP also won substantial majorities on the pre-poll and other votes which made up about two thirds of the total turnout.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Caboolture-Morayfield | 46.1 | 13,761 | 12.7 |
| Burpengary | 48.4 | 12,239 | 11.3 |
| Pumicestone | 55.5 | 5,531 | 5.1 |
| West | 58.6 | 4,227 | 3.9 |
| Pre-poll | 54.8 | 48,801 | 45.2 |
| Other votes | 54.5 | 23,506 | 21.8 |
Election results in Longman at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party and Labor.
Il rescind that post i didn’t read it properly its not official for the election anyway a tied result is probably never gonna happen. For starters there needs to be an even number of votes
And secondly there would be a recount and second recount and possibly court action against tied result is next to impossible
I didn’t have “John misinterprets a source intended for primary school students to try to win an argument on the internet” on my bingo card for this election.
Thank you mate, you’ve made my day.
I think we can all agree that if the margin is in double digits (in terms of actual votes, not percentage) this is headed to a recount anyway. Under no circumstances would either party be cool with just leaving the seat decided by two votes with no recount.
Yea i didn’t read the headline i just googled “what would happen in the event of a tie” hence why i retracted that
Anything under 100 votes is automatically recounted
Is this the last remaining realistic target for the ALP in Queensland? They’ve done remarkably to win 12/14 winnable seats, all but Longman and Ryan.
Labor have done incredibly well in QLD. Longman and Ryan were extremely close for them too.
If only the election was held next Saturday for Labor with two interest rate cuts they probably would have won this narrowly by 0.1%
@Bumbalo Bowman is within reach, and maybe Macpherson or Fairfax on a really good day, but that’s about it. Flynn and Capricornia stayed the same or went further away, even on a good election, so chances are they’re out of reach for a long time. Also wouldn’t discount the teal in Fisher’s chances if she runs again.