LNP 3.1%
Incumbent MP
Terry Young, since 2019.
Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.
History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.
Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.
In 2010, Jon Sullivan was defeated by Liberal National candidate Wyatt Roy. Roy was elected at the age of 20 in 2010, and is the youngest ever member of the House of Representatives. Roy was elected to a second term in 2013. Roy lost in 2016 to Labor candidate Susan Lamb.
Lamb was forced to resign from parliament in early 2018 due to her late citizenship renunciation in 2016, but she was re-elected at the resulting by-election.
Lamb’s by-election success was not repeated in 2019, when she lost to Liberal National candidate Terry Young. Young was re-elected in 2022.
Assessment
Longman is a marginal LNP seat that could be in play if Labor’s support in Queensland picks up.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Terry Young | Liberal National | 41,253 | 38.2 | -0.4 |
| Rebecca Fanning | Labor | 34,036 | 31.5 | -2.6 |
| Ross Taylor | One Nation | 8,917 | 8.3 | -5.0 |
| Earl Snijders | Greens | 7,814 | 7.2 | +0.5 |
| Nigel David Quinlan | Legalise Cannabis | 6,025 | 5.6 | +5.6 |
| Stefanie Alexis Sutherland | United Australia | 5,949 | 5.5 | +2.2 |
| Paula Gilbard | Animal Justice | 2,060 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Jens Lipponer | Liberal Democrats | 2,011 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 5,677 | 5.0 | -0.9 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Terry Young | Liberal National | 57,359 | 53.1 | -0.2 |
| Rebecca Fanning | Labor | 50,706 | 46.9 | +0.2 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone. Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture-Morayfield and Burpengary.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Pumicestone (55.5%) and the west (58.6%) while Labor won in the more populous Caboolture-Morayfield (53.9%) and Burpengary (51.6%). The LNP also won substantial majorities on the pre-poll and other votes which made up about two thirds of the total turnout.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Caboolture-Morayfield | 46.1 | 13,761 | 12.7 |
| Burpengary | 48.4 | 12,239 | 11.3 |
| Pumicestone | 55.5 | 5,531 | 5.1 |
| West | 58.6 | 4,227 | 3.9 |
| Pre-poll | 54.8 | 48,801 | 45.2 |
| Other votes | 54.5 | 23,506 | 21.8 |
Election results in Longman at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party and Labor.
I. Am campaigning solely for the Senate. In fact there is not one House candddidte. That I. come close to supporting. It comes close to just eliminating the worst and working backwards
Therefore my order was
1 Family First Co ( however I hate their anti Christian economic policies
2 LNP just ahead of ALP
3 ALP
4 Trumpet of Patriots
5 One Nation ( if Roberts were standing on his own I would put him first but handing Hanson more money puts PHON down bottom. The unsubstantiated gossip that Roberts will once elected resign and be replaced by another PHON member eliminates Roberts from
A higher position.
And 6 Greens last. It takes A Com, Trotskyite or Uniformed NAZI to dislodge Greens from last spot.
@AndrewJackson – that must have been rough to have your clothes dyed with ink back in 1969!
I agree with you that polling can be a pleasant and interesting time. It occurs to me too that it is one of the rare occasions these days when people cross paths with others who they might otherwise not do so, having different schedules, hobbies and lifestyles etc. So it is valuable in that respect too.
And yes, I respect the people handling out the HTV cards or doing similar volunteer work. They are all trying to contribute to our democracy, and for that I salute them.
I’ve noticed Longman odds has tightened with Labor now listed at $3.50 on Sportsbet.
Pre polls being worked forcefully by LNP and effectively by ALP. ALP message is health care and Medicare with Libs talking cost of living and petrol
Pricing. Libertarians have manned booth all day 1 bloke – he deserves Rennick and Greens manning Morayfield most of day.
Queyues some of day but at other time voters can walk straight in.
Relationship on Booths Burpengary Good, Morayfield a bit strained but Satisfactory and Bribie Excellent.
Advance australia have no workers on any site but have erected Corflutes.
Absolutely no Trumpet of Patriots or Pauline Hanson anywhere in Longman so far. An allegation that Trumpet of Patriots have paid staff in Dickson but O have not seen them. ALP and LNP candidates visible during day.
This will probably Labor last chance for a while in this seat
I hope any paid Trumpet of Patriots workers get paid up front
Update on Morayfield two PHON turned up today . One wearing a high vis vest with Commonwealth Coat of Arms on front. I did not realise that the Common wealth had endorsed PHON.
@ John, Labor won’t win this seat. I don’t expect to see Labor win this or Petrie or Ford or Capricornia again for a very long time. All seats Labor once had.
If they can play the FMIA right, Capricornia could come back, but I agree it’s doubtful, these seats are generally trending to the right.
Looking at the votes in Pumicestone at the state election which was a narrow lnp win. This is similar to longman….. maybe just maybe
@ Mick this is classic White Working Class territory so if the LNP loses it will be so embrassing for Dutton. I still expect the LNP to win.