Moreton – Australia 2025

at this stage labor could lose both blair and moreton to the coalition. moreton would of been held albeit marginally if perrett had not been forced out now its a tossup but blair will lkely fall to the coalition even if neumann isnt ousted. if he is osted as well ts a certain loss. that means in 2028 labor will need to force one of their sitting senators out if they were to retain dick and chalmers in their seats. they will be even worse off if anika wells were to lose lilley

@ AA
Fair point some progressive vote will go to the Greens in that case and If Julie-Ann becomes popular as an incumbent she could take some of that progressive vote back. Regarding the Chinese community i dont see them going back to Libs with Dutton as leader given his Hawkish stance which has not changed. The seat is progressive by National standards on voice etc and especially by QLD standards. In a seat like this Gender based Affirmative action will not be viewed unfavourably compared to say Blair which is more white working class.

John, although for Biden’s case his reason/s for stepping down were also due to his age with complaints from Democrats (both supporters and elected members) that he wasn’t putting too much effort into the campaign against Trump and was seen as ‘worn out’ with Trump being seen as someone who could re-energise the country despite his past record.

Nevertheless, even with a younger Kamala Harris as the torchbearer Trump is no worse than 50/50 to win.

This seat swung 4.46% between 2007-2013, compared to the QLD average of 7.42%. Of the 5 elections Perrett was the incumbent, only in 2016 did the seat swing more against him than the QLD average. If you compare 2007 to 2022 results, only Ryan has swung more to the left. I think he did have a decent personal vote, there is no reason Labor should have won this in 2013. I think the seat has trended enough to the left that the Libs aren’t that likely to win it again.

Polling has Labor doing about the same in QLD as 2022 and the unpopular state Labor gov will be gone by the time of the next election.

Greens for some reason don’t seem overly interested in this. Seems a mistake because when incumbents retire is exactly the kind of time they should be heavily targetting a seat.

@yoh the point is he didnt retire on his own volition he was forced out due to internal issues against the will of the voters they are putting politics ahead of principle even though they are claiming the opposite.

TLDR; The Greens could win this if they increase their 3CP vote by eight percent. Perhaps counterintuitively, if the LNP increases their vote too, the required swing for The Greens could be even less, as low as around 4.5 percent, so long as the swing to the LNP isn’t too large.

The 3CP here in 2022 was:
– LNP: 37.5%
– ALP: 39.5%
– GRN: 23.0%

Assuming the LNP vote doesn’t change, the Greens would need an 8.3% swing here from Labor to avoid elimination.

In that case, assuming 82% of Labor’s 3CP vote flows to The Greens (which is approximately what it was in Brisbane, Griffith, and Ryan), the final 2CP would end up as Greens 55.5% versus LNP.

It becomes more complicated if the LNP vote goes up or down, but I think most would expect that it will go up at the next election.

To generalise, if we say the swing to the Greens is x and the swing to the LNP is y, and both are positive (that is, both parties gain at the expense of Labor), then we two conditions to hold for The Greens to win:

The first is that the Greens 3CP is above Labor’s:
23.0 + x > 39.5 – x – y

The second is that the Greens must defeat the LNP on the 2CP:
23.0 + x + (39.5 – x – y) * 0.82 > 37.5 + y + (39.5 – x – y) * 0.18

We also need the requirement that Labor’s vote doesn’t drop below zero!:
39.5 – x – y ≥ 0

Even after simplification, it’s hard to visualise this, but I’ll give a few particular examples:
– If the LNP 3CP does not change, the swing to The Greens must be at least 8.3%. [LNP 37.5, GRN 31.3, ALP 31.2]
– If the LNP has a 5% swing, the swing to The Greens must be at least 5.8%. [LNP 42.5, GRN 28.8, ALP 28.7]
– A swing of around 7.5% to the LNP, is the sweet spot where the two conditions (defeating Labor on the 3CP and defeating the LNP on the 2CP) meet, and the required swing to The Greens is only 4.6%. [LNP 45.0, GRN 27.6, ALP 27.4]
– In theory, The Greens could win if there’s a 10% swing to the LNP, but because now the problem is The Greens need to defeat the LNP on the 2CP. Since the LNP are just barely short of a majority on the 3CP in this scenario, the Greens would need a 15.7% swing. That’s a total of a 25.7% swing against Labor, which is quite improbable. [LNP 47.5, GRN 38.7, ALP 13.8]

i dont think the greens will get enough of the 3cp vote to make the count i think the lnp have a real shot at regaining this. with dutton as leader the home state advantage may help him here

@ Drake
If you do a state adjusted swing between 2007 to 2022 on current boundaries. Moreton is has had a swing of 7.42% to Labor while Ryan had had a swing of 7.8%. Interestingly Blair is actually better in 2022 than 2007 when looking at a state adjusted result on current boundaries. However, i would say the results in QLD has been messed up by the 2019 disaster especially in Central/North QLD after the Adani mine issue which Labor still has not recovered from fully. Given the population spread of QLD the regional vote has a bigger impact on the statewide vote than other states. I do think maybe the Seat is just more progressive these days is more ethnically diverse than in the past so better for Labor/Greens than the. In this the first time that a sitting member will leave for the gender quota.

@Nimalan I agree with that previous comment. However I believe Julie-Ann Campbell is from the right faction. This doesn’t matter too much for voters, but it means that she won’t have the resources that Perrett had from the powerful left faction (who only really have a candidate in Dickson now).

If Labor really wanted to hold this, they need a progressive female CALD candidate. Preferrably one with strong links to the Chinese/Korean community in Sunnybank and Runcorn.

@john Dutton being a Queenslander does nothing to help a seat like this, which is extremely multicultural and progressive. Especially given his stance on refugees from Gaza. Dutton’s home state advantage will only help in “white battler” seats like Petrie, Longman and Blair.

have to wait and see but i think the next qld redistribution will sure up the greens hold on griffith and help the left in moreton and oxley but rankin and blair would become friendlier to the coalition so i think blair is as good as gone in the long run if not this election then definitely the next

@john I can totally see Blair going for the Libs in 25, but Moreton is a stretch too far. The demographics don’t work for Dutton, but the 2PP will probably narrow from 59 ALP to 56-54. Greens getting into the 2CP will also be very difficult and take multiple cycles. The Qld Greens would probably be better off sending excess resources to their NSW counterparts in Richmond.

Blair will become friendlier to the Coalition, as will Longman and Petrie. Maybe Forde as well. They’re all “white battler” seats.

But Rankin will not, because it has some of the safest Labor voting areas in Queensland (Woodridge and Logan Central), and is extremely multicultural.

@AA if you look at the enrollment numbers rankin will probably expand south into liberal voting forde

i reckon lilley might be gettable too in 28 after the redistribution as it will more then likely expand into over quota petrie to the north

@John the areas in Forde that border Rankin, have similar demographics to Rankin.

So if it does move south, it will move into areas (Loganlea, Boronia Heights, Waterford West) that vote strongly Labor – they’re lower socioeconomic, fairly multicultural areas.

Also, the northern part of Forde that currently votes Liberal on 2PP around Park Ridge, is being subdivided and has a lot of young families moving in. So this changes the demographics in that area, and makes it better for Labor.

In Forde there is a growing LNP vote in suburbs like Beenleigh in the far south of Brisbane towards the Gold Coast.

even if campbell wins and blair is lost to the coalition at the next election labor will still only have 3/7 sats being woman so one of the men would still need to vacate their seat in order to achieve the 50% target in 2028

The nature of Blair is determined by how much of Ipswich it includes. As of now Blair is a Labor seat under most circumstances.
If the Lockner Valley was in the seat it would probably be a liberal seat most times

@mick it will most likely contract to the brisbane river at next redistribution thus ensuring a iberal win

my plan for the qld redistribution is to do the following gaining territory in the following direction.
Dawson -> Capricornia -> Flynn – > maranoa – > Groom -> Wright (specifiaclly the Lockner Valley)

then for over quota ones i plan to shed territory from fadden to forde to rankin and wright.

then do the following
Bonner -> Griffith -> Moreton -> Oxley/Wright -> Blair

Leichardt, Kennedy, McPherson and Moncrieff, Herbert, Hinkler and Wide Bay are all at or close enough to qouta to not need any changes. fairfax and fisher can shed some territory to blair to make up the difference and then its a metter of moving the excess south into dickson and ryan. lilley shortfall can be made up from petrie.

Brisbane will also not require changes or shed a little bit at most

Does anyone knows who is preselected for the Second Senate spot in 2025 for Labor after Nita Green. If there is a woman and she wins then even if Blair is Liberal won in 2025 then with Campbell winning, Labor could meet the Gender quota in 2025 like they did in the rest of the country.

@nimalan labor did pick a woman but they wont win a second seat it will be 3 lnp 1 grn 1 lab and 1 onp

@nimalan and they wont meet it because the rule states hey must preslect 50% in all currently held seats so they wont meet the quota this election since they have only picked woman in 3/8 seats currently held therefore the quota has not been met. if they win a second senate spot then they could meet it in 2028

@ John
If they get a second spot they will meet it in 2028 unless they can waive it for 2025. There is usually a 4-2 Right Left Split in very bad elections in QLD such as 2004, 2013 and 2019. Even in elections like 1996, 2001 and 2010 they was 3-3 Split. I agree Labor cannot win 3 senate seats anymore but they really need to do very bad to get a 4-2 Right/Left Split . In 2022 Labor only a 2.12% increase in the senate vote from 2019 but still managed to win 2 Senate seats with only 24% of the primary vote at a senate level.

@nimalan they will likely lose that 2.12% as they are about to get thumped at a state level. my understanding albo has overruled the quota this election in order to try and save blair. as if they kicked him out as well it would be a certain loss.

@john pretty much agree with your proposals. The Lockyer Valley portion of Wright bothers me most today. Makes sense encroaching Maranoa up into the rural parts of Darling Downs and then having Groom expand out down the range into the Lockyer Valley. The Lockyer Valley has a lot more to do with Toowoomba and Ipswich as a communities of interest than the Gold Coast Hinterland & Logan’s exurbs. A reconfigured Wright (without Lockyer) could also start under quota because there is a lot more residential development coming online in Logan’s exurbs. These exurbs all historically connect through into the towns that make up the Gold Coast Hinterland, Scenic Rim and the old Albert shire.

@seq im thinking the same thing in regards to wriht and th lockyer valley. my plan is to move it north up further into ipwisch and hopfully take blair up to the river as far as possible

In no surprise based on the belief of this forum, Labor have preselected Julie-Ann Campbell to contest Moreton.