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@redistributed
In the case of Higgins, it isn’t really a teal seat. Sure you had posh areas like Toorak and Malvern that are typical of teal seats but inner-city areas with high Greens votes (Prahran, Windsor, South Yarra) and middle suburban areas with strong Labor votes (Hughesdale, Carnegie, Murrumbeena) mean it isn’t exactly fertile ground for a teal campaign.
In the case of Ryan, as I’ve previously alluded to, they tried to get a teal campaign off the ground but they couldn’t because the Greens were already quite strong. It’s a bit tricky to run a grassroots campaign when the bulk of your ideal volunteers are already volunteering for the Greens.
I will be closely looking at the state results for this seat. This will be my method for determining the results:
Maiwar + Moggill + Cooper (Ryan) + Ferny Grove (Ryan)
* Suburbs of Cooper in Ryan: Bardon, Enoggera Reservoir, The Gap
* Suburbs of Ferny Grove in Ryan: Ferny Grove, Gaythorne, Grovely, Keperra, Mitchelton, Upper Kedron
At the last state election, this was the TPP here:
* Labor: 52.1%
* LNP: 47.9%
On council results however it’s an LNP seat and I would assume quite comfortably but I haven’t checked the council results yet.
My personal view is that the LNP vote at the state election next week will be below the Council Result but above the Federal 2022 and probably the Federal 2025 result. Crisafulli is less moderate than the BCC LNP but more moderate than the Federal LNP hence the difference.
@Nimalan I agree. I just checked the council results for Ryan, the LNP would’ve won 57.5% of the TCP vote against the Greens in Ryan at the BCC elections. That means yes, it is probable that the Greens only won Ryan because of A. Preferences and B. either a protest vote against the majors or a teal vote. The LNP even held onto Walter Taylor which is in Maiwar.
@ Nether portal
Yeah this teal is demographically Tealish Small L liberal so more like Kooyong, Goldstein etc. Right wing economically but socially moderate supports climate action a decent 2030 target etc. It is the poshest seat in Brisbane.
@NP the last state results are almost identical to the federal results so that may be a glimmer of hope for the lnp
Last state election, Labor got 53.2% of the TPP which even higher than what Kevin Rudd got in 2007, if that was repeated in 2022. Albo would have picked up Petrie, Forde, Longman, Herbert and Leichardt as well. Labor only got 46% of the primary in QLD in May 2022.
@Nimalan Labor got 46% of the TPP vote not the primary vote.
Also I think he’s referring to Ryan itself, and that is true because Labor’s notional TPP against the LNP in Ryan is 52.4% as of the 2022 federal election.
if the lnp can regain a small percentage that was lost in 2022 it may flip back
@ NP
yes that was a typo Labor got 46% of the TPP i mean.
Yes i agree but 2022 election showed a class polarization which was not there at the state election. We see that in the 2023 NSW state election as well where State Labor overperformed in Western Sydney, Hunter Valley and Southern Sydney but underperformed in Northern Sydney compared to Federal results. In short, the climate change debate meant Labor underperformed among the White Working Class at a federal level while the Federal LNP underperformed in affluent areas. Dutton is more polarising than Crisafulli so that divide will still be an issue.
@Nimalan with the LNP all but certain to win the state election, do you think that on state results they will have majorities of the TPP in Brisbane and Ryan?
@ NP
No dispute the LNP will the state election.
1. Yes i do think on state results they will majority of the TPP in Brisbane and Ryan. However, IMHO it will be slightly less than they got at the BCC elections though
2. On state results i also expect them do quite well in Moreton and Griffith and massively over-perform the Federal results although i am not confident enough to make a prediction they will a majority of the TPP either way.
griffith will likely remain grn due to the overwhelming left vote in that seat and the fact its at quota so likely wont see any changes with the redistribution however i believe the lnp will benefit from the redistribution in rankin and maybe moreton and blair also in seats like lilley brisbane ryan and dickson but will likely concentrate more of the left vote in oxley due to it taking in more of ipswich from blair.