Forde – Australia 2025

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  1. Interesting how Labor went on a spree of candidate announcements last week in seats like Forde, Ryan, Brisbane and Dickson. I do think Bonner is more winnable but there’s no candidate.

  2. I’m more surprised that they didn’t announce a Flynn candidate, given that Albo said he was in Queensland to talk about the Coalition’s nuclear plans & Flynn being a marginal seat with a proposed plant to be placed within it, but I guess it ultimately just comes down to whether or not they’ve been able to actually find a candidate yet.

  3. I think the seats they have chosen candidates for in Queensland so far are largely where their focus will be here and don’t really surprise me. No candidate in Bonner yet is odd given Forde has one but it’s easier and quicker to figure out when you’re just running the previous candidate again. While Dutton is the LNP leader (and Albanese is Labor leader, actually) I don’t think Flynn and Longman for example are winnable for Labor. And Ali France running again in Dickson is just a simple and quick solution for a seat I’m sure they’d be ecstatic to win but nonetheless doubt their chances there.

  4. Even with Dutton as LNP leader I think Labor should really put a concerted effort into snagging a Brisbane seat or two on top of a good run at Leichardt given they’re facing likely losses in WA and have seats such as Lyons, Lingiari, Gilmore and Paterson in the other states to worry about as well. The whole “write QLD off” idea a lot of people have is an incredibly grave mistake and will come back to bite them over and over.

  5. @ Laine
    Labor will play defense in Blair and Leichardt is best chance of a gain, i think they will only try one at best maybe Brisbane, Bonner or Forde.

  6. Forde could be a Labor gain because of the rapid population growth in Park Ridge and Logan Reserve. A lot of young families moving into that area.

  7. There might be a tougher vetting process for Labor candidates elsewhere where there are lower margins but still a tough hill to climb e.g. Flynn, Bonner. Labor might have decided to write off Forde and so they preselected the guy as before.

  8. Seems either Labor underperformed in the Logan Parts of Forde or Labor overperformed in the Logan Parts of the neighboring Rankin or a maybe a little bit of both as the communities within the Rankin-Forde border has on average a roughly 10% difference on the TPP .

  9. Negligible swing here. Don’t see it swinging much either way. LNP are not making this a 8-10% margin, NP, this is not 2019.

  10. @Daniel T I wasn’t thinking 8-10% I was thinking maybe a 3-4% swing (57-58% margin). Around average or a little bit over average compared to the rest of the state/country.


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