NSW federal redistribution drafts released – live


3:06pm – I’ll be wrapping up the live blog here. There’s a few extra bits of analysis I’d like to do, but I’ll leave those for another blog post.

If you want to see me talking about the redistribution I will be doing a webinar for my employer GovConnex at 4pm. You can register for the webinar here.

I will also be on ABC Radio Drive in regional NSW at 3:20pm and ABC Radio Sydney Drive at 3:50pm, and you’ll be able to catch me on Afternoon Briefing on ABC News 24 after 4pm.

39 out of 46 seats were changed, leaving seven unchanged. These seven were Calare, Dobell, Farrer, Lyne, Reid, Richmond, Robertson.

2:53pm – The results of the last election was 77 Labor, 58 Coalition, 16 Crossbench.

Labor has gained Bullwinkel and Menzies, and lost Higgins and Bennelong.

The Coalition has lost Menzies and gained Bennelong.

The Crossbench has lost North Sydney.

So the new numbers (not including Labor’s gain of Aston) are 77 Labor, 58 Coalition and 15 Crossbench.

For Labor to lose their majority they need to lose two seats on a uniform swing of 0.4%, down from 0.9% on the old boundaries.

For the Coalition to gain a majority they need 18 seats. That required a uniform swing of 6.3% (assuming only gains from Labor) previously, and now that is 6.0%.

If you include potential crossbench gains, the Coalition needed a uniform 2CP swing of 4.0% prior to the redistribution, and now requires 3.9%.

There were 8 crossbench seats held on margins of 4.2% or less prior to the redistribution. The abolition of North Sydney and the increased safety of Wentworth lowers that number to six.

2:24pm – And here is the new pendulum.

Labor Seats Coalition Seats
Seat Margin Seat Margin
Gilmore (NSW) ALP 0.2% Deakin (VIC) LIB 0.02%
Menzies (VIC) ALP 0.4% Bennelong (NSW) LIB 0.1%
Lyons (TAS) ALP 0.9% Sturt (SA) LIB 0.5%
Lingiari (NT) ALP 0.9% Moore (WA) LIB 0.9%
Robertson (NSW) ALP 2.3% Canning (WA) LIB 1.1%
Paterson (NSW) ALP 2.6% Casey (VIC) LIB 1.4%
Tangney (WA) ALP 3.0% Bass (TAS) LIB 1.4%
Boothby (SA) ALP 3.3% Dickson (QLD) LNP 1.7%
Bullwinkel (WA) ALP 3.3% Cowper (NSW) NAT 2.4% vs IND
Chisholm (VIC) ALP 3.3% Bradfield (NSW) LIB 2.5% vs IND
McEwen (VIC) ALP 3.4% Nicholls (VIC) NAT 2.5% vs IND
Parramatta (NSW) ALP 3.7% Aston (VIC) LIB 2.6%
Wills (VIC) ALP 4.6% vs GRN Banks (NSW) LIB 2.6%
Hunter (NSW) ALP 4.8% Monash (VIC) LIB 2.9%
Reid (NSW) ALP 5.2% Longman (QLD) LNP 3.1%
Blair (QLD) ALP 5.2% Bonner (QLD) LNP 3.4%
Bruce (VIC) ALP 5.3% Wannon (VIC) LIB 3.4% vs IND
Werriwa (NSW) ALP 5.3% Leichhardt (QLD) LNP 3.4%
Shortland (NSW) ALP 6.0% Hughes (NSW) LIB 3.5%
Eden-Monaro (NSW) ALP 6.1% Flynn (QLD) LNP 3.8%
Macquarie (NSW) ALP 6.3% Forrest (WA) LIB 4.2%
Dobell (NSW) ALP 6.5% Forde (QLD) LNP 4.2%
Dunkley (VIC) ALP 6.8% Petrie (QLD) LNP 4.4%
Holt (VIC) ALP 7.1% Durack (WA) LIB 4.7%
Hawke (VIC) ALP 7.6% Bowman (QLD) LNP 5.5%
Corangamite (VIC) ALP 7.8% Lindsay (NSW) LIB 6.1%
Cooper (VIC) ALP 7.8% vs GRN Flinders (VIC) LIB 6.2%
Greenway (NSW) ALP 8.0% Capricornia (QLD) LNP 6.6%
Richmond (NSW) ALP 8.2% O’Connor (WA) LIB 6.7%
Whitlam (NSW) ALP 8.3% Hume (NSW) LIB 6.9%
Pearce (WA) ALP 8.8% Groom (QLD) LNP 6.9% vs IND
Hindmarsh (SA) ALP 8.9% Berowra (NSW) LIB 7.5%
Rankin (QLD) ALP 9.1% Braddon (TAS) LIB 8.0%
Moreton (QLD) ALP 9.1% La Trobe (VIC) LIB 8.4%
Solomon (NT) ALP 9.4% Fisher (QLD) LNP 8.7%
Swan (WA) ALP 9.4% Fairfax (QLD) LNP 9.0%
Isaacs (VIC) ALP 9.5% McPherson (QLD) LNP 9.3%
Macarthur (NSW) ALP 9.8% Calare (NSW) NAT 9.7% vs IND
Cowan (WA) ALP 9.9% Riverina (NSW) NAT 9.7%
Gorton (VIC) ALP 10.0% Grey (SA) LIB 10.1%
Hasluck (WA) ALP 10.1% Hinkler (QLD) LNP 10.1%
McMahon (NSW) ALP 10.5% Dawson (QLD) LNP 10.4%
Lilley (QLD) ALP 10.5% Mitchell (NSW) LIB 10.5%
Makin (SA) ALP 10.8% Fadden (QLD) LNP 10.6%
Gellibrand (VIC) ALP 11.2% Page (NSW) NAT 10.7%
Hotham (VIC) ALP 11.6% Wright (QLD) LNP 10.9%
Oxley (QLD) ALP 11.6% Moncrieff (QLD) LNP 11.2%
Adelaide (SA) ALP 11.9% Wide Bay (QLD) LNP 11.3%
Bendigo (VIC) ALP 12.0% Cook (NSW) LIB 11.7%
Barton (NSW) ALP 12.0% Herbert (QLD) LNP 11.8%
Macnamara (VIC) ALP 12.2% Lyne (NSW) NAT 13.8%
Canberra (ACT) ALP 12.2% vs GRN New England (NSW) NAT 15.2%
Jagajaga (VIC) ALP 12.2% Farrer (NSW) LIB 16.4%
Calwell (VIC) ALP 12.4% Barker (SA) LIB 16.6%
Corio (VIC) ALP 12.5% Parkes (NSW) NAT 18.1%
Lalor (VIC) ALP 12.8% Mallee (VIC) NAT 19%
Spence (SA) ALP 12.9% Gippsland (VIC) NAT 20.6%
Bean (ACT) ALP 12.9% Maranoa (QLD) LNP 22.1%
Ballarat (VIC) ALP 13.0%
Maribyrnong (VIC) ALP 13.0%
Blaxland (NSW) ALP 13.1%
Burt (WA) ALP 13.3%
Kingsford Smith (NSW) ALP 13.3% Curtin (WA) IND 1.3% vs LIB
Chifley (NSW) ALP 13.6% Fowler (NSW) IND 1.4% vs ALP
Franklin (TAS) ALP 13.7% Ryan (QLD) GRN 2.6% vs LNP
Perth (WA) ALP 14.4% Mackellar (NSW) IND 3.3% vs LIB
Cunningham (NSW) ALP 15.1% Kooyong (VIC) IND 3.5% vs LIB
Watson (NSW) ALP 15.1% Brisbane (QLD) GRN 3.7% vs LNP
Scullin (VIC) ALP 15.3% Goldstein (VIC) IND 3.9% vs LIB
Fenner (ACT) ALP 15.7% Melbourne (VIC) GRN 6.9% vs ALP
Kingston (SA) ALP 16.4% Indi (VIC) IND 8.9% vs LIB
Sydney (NSW) ALP 16.5% vs GRN Wentworth (NSW) IND 9.0% vs LIB
Fraser (VIC) ALP 16.6% Warringah (NSW) IND 9.4% vs LIB
Fremantle (WA) ALP 16.7% Griffith (QLD) GRN 10.5% vs LNP
Brand (WA) ALP 17.1% Mayo (SA) CA 12.3% vs LIB
Grayndler (NSW) ALP 17.4% vs GRN Kennedy (QLD) KAP 13.1% vs LNP
Newcastle (NSW) ALP 17.9% Clark (TAS) IND 20.8% vs ALP

2:17pm – In terms of the degree of change, 46% of Blaxland consists of new voters, with over 30% of voters in Bennelong, Watson and McMahon. Over a quarter of voters are new to Warringah, Grayndler, Parramatta and Bradfield.

Outside Sydney, Riverina is most changed with almost a quarter of voters being new. Hume is also 23% new.

2:13pm – Changes were minor in northern NSW. Richmond, Page, Cowper and Lyne are either unchanged, or very close to it. New England has expanded slightly in two directions but has maintained its identity.

The Central Coast seats of Dobell and Robertson have also been left alone, with very minor changes to Shortland and Newcastle.

Paterson has contracted on its western edge, losing Kurri Kurri to Hunter, cutting Meryl Swanson’s margin from 3.3% to 2.6% and increasing Labor’s margin in Hunter from 4.0% to 4.8%.

Changes were much more dramatic in the south-east of the state. Cunningham has been largely left alone. Whitlam has taken in the remainder of the Wingecarribee Shire from Hume, but it already covered most of the population centres in that council area.

Eden-Monaro has expanded north to take in Goulburn from Hume, losing Tumut, Tumbarumba and Yass to the west of the Great Dividing Range and the ACT.

Calare has been left alone and Parkes has been slightly changed, but Riverina has moved a great deal east, expanding to meet the ACT and take in Tumut, Tumbarumba, Yass and Upper Lachlan. Farrer has been untouched.

2:06pm – Okay, an hour after the proposal was published, I now have the space to actually look at the maps.

On the north shore, Mackellar has expanded south into Warringah, with Warringah then compensating by moving west into North Sydney.

The committee has taken the Liberal Party’s approach of then dividing up the remainder of North Sydney into two parts between the Labor seat of Bennelong and the Liberal seat of Bradfield. This is good news for Paul Fletcher.

Bennelong has then shifted east, causing the seat to flip from 1.0% ALP to 0.1% Liberal, although margins always have uncertainty. Another analyst could easily see this seat as remaining in Labor hands. Parramatta has also shifted north, although it has spread out both to the north-east and north-west.

In the inner city, Wentworth has lost part of Clovelly to Kingsford Smith and gained Potts Point and Darlinghurst. These areas look small on a map but they are very densely populated and very bad for the Liberal Party so it’s a good sign for Spender.

Plibersek has picked up the Balmain peninsula, but there is no land connection to the main part of the seat. Grayndler has shifted south-west, picking up the remainder of Marrickville (including Albanese’s home area).

I was surprised to see that Kingsford-Smith has expanded past the airport to take in the Botany Bay shore including Brighton-le-Sands and Monterey. Cook has contracted to be more Shire-based, but still has a beach-head in Sans Souci.

Watson has shifted substantially to the west, taking in Bankstown from Blaxland, while Blaxland has expanded north-west to take in parts of Parramatta and McMahon.

Fowler has been left mostly intact, gaining a small area from McMahon. McMahon has expanded further into the Blacktown council area. Greenway has gained areas from the northern end of Mitchell while Chifley and Lindsay are largely intact.

Werriwa has contracted, losing its western and southern ends, while Macarthur has become even more Campbelltown-based, losing the fast-growing areas around Leppington and Oran Park.

Hume is now firmly a Macarthur-area seat, based entirely within the Wollondilly and Camden LGAs with a few sparsely-populated parts of Liverpool and Penrith council areas. It is no longer the vast and disconnected seat that included Goulburn and Camden while skipping over the Southern Highlands.

It’s also worth mentioning Hughes, which was traditionally split between the Sutherland shire and Liverpool. But it has instead spilled over the Georges River into Campbelltown, taking in Ingleburn, Macquarie Fields and Glenfield. This has really hit the Liberal margin.

1:50pm – And here is my interactive map.

1:43pm – Once we factor in the new area of Fowler taken in from McMahon, Dai Le’s margin is cut from 1.6% to 1.4%.

1:37pm – Okay I have fixed the figures for Blaxland, McMahon and Parramatta, will need a few more minutes to calculate a new margin for Fowler using the method used for Kooyong, Goldstein and Wentworth.

Labor margin in Parramatta cut by 0.9%. Bowen’s margin is only up 1%, not 3%. Jason Clare’s margin in Blaxland cut by 1.9%.

1:30pm – Okay small problem with “McMahon” not matching “Mcmahon”. Will change the estimates for Fowler, McMahon, Blaxland and Parramatta. Will take a minute to update my tables.

1:26pm – Hmm potential problem with McMahon, bear with me a minute.

1:23pm – So overall one independent seat has been abolished, and one neighbouring Labor seat has flipped from Labor to Liberal (by the slimmest of margins). The total seat count is 25 Labor, 10 Liberal, 7 Nationals and 4 independents (3 teals and Dai Le).

Interesting takeaways:

  • Bennelong flips from 1.0% Labor seat to 0.1% Liberal seat.
  • Allegra Spender’s margin in Wentworth increases from 4.2% to 9.0%, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar is up from 2.5% to 3.3%, and Zali Steggall’s margin decreases from 11.0% to 9.4%.
  • Paul Fletcher’s margin in Bradfield has been cut from 4.2% to 2.5% against the teal independents. Kylea Tink’s margin in North Sydney was 2.9%.
  • Dai Le’s margin has been cut from 1.6% to 1.4%.
  • Chris Bowen’s margin in McMahon increased from 9.5% to 10.5%.
  • Little change in Labor’s margin against the Greens in Grayndler (up 0.3%) and Sydney (down 0.2%)
  • Liberal margin in Hughes halved from 7.0% to 3.5%.
  • Nationals margin in Riverina cut from 14.8% to 9.7%.
  • Labor margins in Barton and Greenway cut by 3.5% each.
  • Parramatta Labor margin cut from 4.6% to 3.7%.

1:15pm – Here are the margins.

Seat Old margin New margin
Banks LIB 3.2% LIB 2.6%
Barton ALP 15.5% ALP 12%
Bennelong ALP 1.0% LIB 0.1%
Berowra LIB 9.8% LIB 7.5%
Blaxland ALP 14.9% ALP 13.1%
Bradfield LIB vs IND 4.2% LIB vs IND 2.5%
Calare NAT vs IND 9.7% NAT vs IND 9.7%
Chifley ALP 13.5% ALP 13.6%
Cook LIB 12.4% LIB 11.7%
Cowper NAT vs IND 2.3% NAT vs IND 2.4%
Cunningham ALP 14.7% ALP 15.1%
Dobell ALP 6.5% ALP 6.5%
Eden-Monaro ALP 8.2% ALP 6.1%
Farrer LIB 16.4% LIB 16.4%
Fowler IND vs ALP 1.6% IND vs ALP 1.4%
Gilmore ALP 0.2% ALP 0.2%
Grayndler ALP vs GRN 17.1% ALP vs GRN 17.4%
Greenway ALP 11.5% ALP 8.0%
Hughes LIB 7.0% LIB 3.5%
Hume LIB 7.7% LIB 6.9%
Hunter ALP 4.0% ALP 4.8%
Kingsford Smith ALP 14.5% ALP 13.3%
Lindsay LIB 6.3% LIB 6.1%
Lyne NAT 13.8% NAT 13.8%
Macarthur ALP 8.5% ALP 9.8%
Mackellar IND vs LIB 2.5% IND vs LIB 3.3%
Macquarie ALP 7.8% ALP 6.3%
McMahon ALP 9.5% ALP 10.5%
Mitchell LIB 10.7% LIB 10.5%
New England NAT 16.4% NAT 15.2%
Newcastle ALP 18.0% ALP 17.9%
North Sydney (Abolished) IND vs LIB 2.9%
Page NAT 10.7% NAT 10.7%
Parkes NAT 17.8% NAT 18.1%
Parramatta ALP 4.6% ALP 3.7%
Paterson ALP 3.3% ALP 2.6%
Reid ALP 5.2% ALP 5.2%
Richmond ALP 8.2% ALP 8.2%
Riverina NAT 14.8% NAT 9.7%
Robertson ALP 2.3% ALP 2.3%
Shortland ALP 5.8% ALP 6.0%
Sydney ALP vs GRN 16.7% ALP vs GRN 16.5%
Warringah IND vs LIB 11.0% IND vs LIB 9.4%
Watson ALP 15.1% ALP 15.1%
Wentworth IND vs LIB 4.2% IND vs LIB 9.0%
Werriwa ALP 5.8% ALP 5.3%
Whitlam ALP 10.1% ALP 8.3%

12:55pm – And here is my estimates of primary vote and 2PP by seat. I’ll be back with the margin estimates in a minute.

I’ll come back to analyse in a bit but at first glance I notice that the 2PP in Bennelong is 50.1% to the Liberal Party.

Seat ALP 2PP LNP 2PP ALP prim LNP prim GRN prim IND prim
Banks 47.4 52.6 35.8 44.6 8.6 0.0
Barton 62.0 38.0 48.0 29.4 11.0 0.0
Bennelong 49.9 50.1 32.1 40.7 10.3 8.2
Berowra 42.5 57.5 23.9 47.2 14.9 4.6
Blaxland 63.1 36.9 51.7 27.1 6.7 1.0
Bradfield 43.8 56.2 17.7 43.7 8.6 25.3
Calare 34.5 65.5 15.1 47.7 4.6 20.4
Chifley 63.6 36.4 53.0 24.6 5.7 1.9
Cook 38.3 61.7 24.0 53.8 9.4 3.7
Cowper 40.5 59.5 14.0 39.5 5.9 26.2
Cunningham 65.1 34.9 41.2 24.5 20.7 0.0
Dobell 56.5 43.5 42.9 33.7 8.6 0.0
Eden-Monaro 56.1 43.9 38.5 34.4 8.6 5.9
Farrer 33.6 66.4 19.0 52.3 9.1 3.2
Fowler 55.9 44.1 36.6 17.6 4.9 28.3
Gilmore 50.2 49.8 35.9 42.0 10.2 4.2
Grayndler 76.7 23.3 52.7 17.8 21.0 1.5
Greenway 58.0 42.0 44.8 33.4 7.6 4.3
Hughes 46.5 53.5 27.9 40.4 6.4 13.4
Hume 43.1 56.9 24.2 42.5 5.7 11.1
Hunter 54.8 45.2 39.4 27.3 8.8 6.7
Kingsford Smith 63.3 36.7 47.4 29.6 15.8 0.0
Lindsay 43.9 56.1 31.9 46.4 8.0 0.0
Lyne 36.2 63.8 21.5 43.5 7.9 8.8
Macarthur 59.8 40.2 46.9 29.3 7.8 0.0
Mackellar 42.1 57.9 8.4 40.5 6.3 38.5
Macquarie 56.3 43.7 41.8 35.9 9.5 0.0
Mcmahon 60.5 39.5 48.5 28.1 6.1 1.3
Mitchell 39.5 60.5 25.6 52.4 12.0 0.1
New England 34.8 65.2 19.9 50.8 7.5 10.3
Newcastle 67.9 32.1 44.1 24.4 20.0 0.0
Page 39.3 60.7 18.6 45.4 8.4 13.5
Parkes 31.9 68.1 19.5 49.0 4.7 2.4
Parramatta 53.7 46.3 40.2 36.8 9.5 2.6
Paterson 52.6 47.4 40.1 37.6 7.7 0.0
Reid 55.2 44.8 41.6 37.9 9.4 3.1
Richmond 58.2 41.8 28.8 23.3 25.3 5.6
Riverina 40.3 59.7 24.9 43.9 6.7 3.7
Robertson 52.3 47.7 37.7 40.0 10.0 0.0
Shortland 56.0 44.0 40.2 31.8 9.9 2.7
Sydney 75.7 24.3 51.0 19.4 22.7 0.4
Warringah 49.3 50.7 12.0 34.3 7.9 39.8
Watson 65.1 34.9 53.9 26.5 7.3 0.0
Wentworth 48.8 51.2 17.7 37.5 10.7 29.3
Werriwa 55.3 44.7 39.1 30.9 6.6 0.0
Whitlam 58.3 41.7 42.4 29.8 10.4 1.5

12:47pm – The video also indicates that Hume shifts north to take in more of Sydney and go no further than Wollondilly Shire. Eden-Monaro would take in Goulburn.

12:44pm – The AEC’s proposal is still not up, but they have published a video which shows the maps of a few seats. You can see that Bennelong has been moved into North Sydney, wile Bradfield only shifts slightly. This is bad for Labor in Bennelong and also breaks up Kylea Tink’s territory more seriously than if Bradfield moved south to absorb the whole area.

12:04pm – The gazette has been published, and the seat of North Sydney has been proposed to be abolished. 12.8% of all voters in NSW have been moved into a different seat. This compares to 8.3% in Victoria and 14.6% in WA. We have no further details.

12:00pm – The Australian Electoral Commission will be announcing the draft federal electorate boundaries for New South Wales this afternoon. I expect they will be published at some point between 12:30pm and 2:30pm AEST.

My plan is to publish my estimated margins for each electorate, and estimated primary votes for the main party groupings, maps showing the old and new boundaries, some descriptions of what changes have happened, and the pendulum showing the new margins.

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  1. I probably reckon over 700 objections will be released for NSW. The previous 2016 redistribution had 790 objections, even though that one was less controversial.

  2. Irrelevant question but why was Lowe abolished instead of Reid, as the Reid (2010-onwards) is more like Lowe (before it was abolished) and now the planned redistributed Blaxland boundaries will be more like Reid (pre-2010)?

  3. Marh
    Reid was effectively abolished and the name recycled for Lowe. As the seats were adjacent and some voters possibly changed over the myth of an abolition of Lowe could taken forward. A bit like the Victorian government who will ‘merge’ 2 or 3 schools but none were ‘closed’.

  4. While it’s correct to say the proposed Kingsford Smith is connecting two disparate areas without common communities of interest through the airport, as I understand it, this was already done a few years back to create Bayside Council. Which raises the question, if the proposed Kingsford Smith is inappropriate, why should Bayside Council continue to exist with similar boundaries? From what I’ve heard it’s been a disaster for the former Rockdale Council, having to absorb all of the former Botany Council’s

  5. There has been a consensus here and in almost all other submissions (ALP excepted) that either North Sydney or Warringah would have to go. The harsh reality of demography, numbers and geography dictating that. Kylie Tink will just have to suck it up and either run agaibst Boele or Steggall or run in Bennelong or not run. IMO the best course would be to run in Bradfield. Her base is moving to Bradfield and Boele is acting rather ‘entitled’. Have two Teals and see how it goes.

  6. Wilson
    Part of the problem has been that in NSW council mergers have had a political element that suited either Labor or Liberal. Some strange combinations have resulted such as Canada Bay, Inner West or Botany Bay. The former Concord Council would always have had more in common with Burwood and Strathfield than Drummoyne. Rockdale with Kogarah and Hurstville rather than Botany. Ashfield with Drummoyne or Burwood rather than Leichhardt and Marrickville.

  7. Seemed like the Council Merger was definitely based on politics than the objectives with areas that strongly voted Labor merged but areas that voted Libs or were marginal seats just kept intact most notably Municipality of Hunter’s Hill which only has a population of 13000

  8. I reckon that most of the objections will be relating to:
    1. Abolition of North Sydney
    2. The bayside bend of Kingsford Smith
    3. Hughes
    4. Hume

    I’m sure that Kylea Tink’s fan base will be objecting. It’s kind of like how Katie Allen’s and Michelle Ananda-Rajah’s fan base protested against the abolition of Higgins. There was a concerted effort to get Tink elected two years ago and there might be some uproar who feel their hard work will be wasted. Claims such as “it is a federation seat with almost 125 years of history” will fall on deaf ears.

    Kingsford-Smith will get more attention from psephologists and election observers like Ben Raue. There’s a cohort who live on the western shores of Botany who will want to go back to Barton or even Cook.

    Hughes will get objections from Sutherland Shire residents who are against being lumped together with Macquarie Fields and Ingleburn and vice versa. Sutherland Shire is like an exclave and has its own character.

    Hume is radically redrawn and has notably lost Goulburn but taken up Leppington. This will spur angst as its more outer suburban and less rural.

  9. Hughes urgently needs to be redone. Upper-middle-class Menai and Bangor do not belong in the same electorate with public housing and low-income Macquarie Fields.

  10. Why should class or perceptions of class have anything to do with electoral boundaries? That is like saying all electoral boundaries have to run down Williams Road because Toorak and the Prahran Housing Commission can’t be in the same electorate or the South Melbourne Housing Commission with Middle Park or Albert Park. Yes, the Hughes boundaries are strange and Glenfield looks like an appendage. There are lots of communities of interest differences but class should not be one. The definition of community of interest should specifically exlude any reference to religion, ethnicity, class or sexuality. It should relate to proximity, local government, transport links, community focus (shopping and services), school and non exclusive community links.

  11. ” if the proposed Kingsford Smith is inappropriate, why should Bayside Council continue to exist with similar boundaries?”

    Easy answer: it shouldn’t.

    But it’s much harder to unpick a council amalgamation than it is to change electoral boundaries.

    We shouldn’t further embed that mistake in federal boundaries.

  12. What are the odds the proposed Hughes will be undone?
    I think Shire pride is one of the reasons against the proposal but the other is Macquarie Fields is geographically cut off from Sutherland Shire and the electorate looks like a mish mash. The state electorate of Holsworthy also crosses Holsworthy Barracks.

    It will be tricky to redraw electorates as metro Sydney is bounded by geographical boundaries such as national parks and bodies of water like Broken Bay and has Sydney Harbour, bays and national parks within. Hughes might have to be the unlucky one.

  13. @Wilson – The Bayside LGA borders, being the merger of the former Botany Bay and Rockdale LGAs, is perhaps the most egregious example of bad LGA boundaries arising from the merger process in 2016. Even just this week Bayside council was tabling motions to undo its merger. There is still strong community anger about the merger. Months

    It’s not a good example to use when making community of interest claims, which is what the redistribution commission has attempted to do with its version of Kingsford Smith.

    As I noted as a reply to a @Ben Raue twitter post earlier in the week, it is my opinion that they should Bayside council up, give the former Rockdale council to Georges River and give the former Botany Bay council to Randwick. All of a sudden you end up with a logical outcome that should have occurred in 2016.

    The numbers probably work that you could draw a Kingsford Smith that is entirely made up of the Randwick and former Botany Bay LGAs. There seems to be a strong desire for this not to occur. Both Allegra Spender and Malcolm Turnbull urged the commissioners not to move the Kingsford Smith-Wentworth border north (to the more logical LGA boundary between Randwick and Waverley, rather than the other random back streets used now). This is seemingly not due to numerical or geographical concerns, but due to socio-political ones relating to the Jewish community. It’s an argument that’s been made at multiple successive redistributions. I wonder how much this concern has played into the creation of the tail. Probably little, if any at all, but interesting to consider nonetheless.

  14. @Redistributed No one is proposing Warringah to be abolished with its territory divided among surounding seats. The Liberal Party submission effectively abolishes North Sydney and renames Warringah to North Sydney.

    The overwhelming concensus is that either North Sydney or Bradfield needs to be abolished with its territory divided among surrounding seats. It is obvious that Kylea Tink and her supporters don’t want either of the two seats abolished because they want both Tink and Nicolette Boele (who calls herself the “shadow representative for Bradfield”) to be in federal Parliament not just one of them, otherwise they can just launch a “Kylea Tink for Bradfield” campaign without any need to campaign against the abolition of North Sydney. It’s easy to understand why they haven’t put forward an alternative seat for abolition, because there are no obvious alternatives to abolishing North Sydney or Bradfield. Even if someone manage to come up with an alternative redistribution that keeps North Sydney and Bradfield, that would basically means asking the Augmented Electoral Commission to start the whole process all over again.

    Kylea Tink’s most likely fate is unsuccessfully contesting Bennelong, and Nicolette Boele hiring her as an adviser or COS after winning Bradfield. Tink will be sorely missed in federal Parliament, but our democracy is so much bigger than any one person.

  15. Interestingly and perhaps not surprisingly, 330 of 508 (around 65%) of objections to the proposed VIC redistribution object to the abolition of Higgins. As for the potential number of objections that may be received for the proposed NSW redistribution, I won’t be surprised if it surpasses 1000, due to hundreds of objections that objects to abolishing North Sydney. A change.org partition to “Save our North Sydney electorate from abolishment” has 2134 signatures. If most of them made an objection the number of objections can surpass 2000.


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