3:06pm – I’ll be wrapping up the live blog here. There’s a few extra bits of analysis I’d like to do, but I’ll leave those for another blog post.
If you want to see me talking about the redistribution I will be doing a webinar for my employer GovConnex at 4pm. You can register for the webinar here.
I will also be on ABC Radio Drive in regional NSW at 3:20pm and ABC Radio Sydney Drive at 3:50pm, and you’ll be able to catch me on Afternoon Briefing on ABC News 24 after 4pm.
39 out of 46 seats were changed, leaving seven unchanged. These seven were Calare, Dobell, Farrer, Lyne, Reid, Richmond, Robertson.
2:53pm – The results of the last election was 77 Labor, 58 Coalition, 16 Crossbench.
Labor has gained Bullwinkel and Menzies, and lost Higgins and Bennelong.
The Coalition has lost Menzies and gained Bennelong.
The Crossbench has lost North Sydney.
So the new numbers (not including Labor’s gain of Aston) are 77 Labor, 58 Coalition and 15 Crossbench.
For Labor to lose their majority they need to lose two seats on a uniform swing of 0.4%, down from 0.9% on the old boundaries.
For the Coalition to gain a majority they need 18 seats. That required a uniform swing of 6.3% (assuming only gains from Labor) previously, and now that is 6.0%.
If you include potential crossbench gains, the Coalition needed a uniform 2CP swing of 4.0% prior to the redistribution, and now requires 3.9%.
There were 8 crossbench seats held on margins of 4.2% or less prior to the redistribution. The abolition of North Sydney and the increased safety of Wentworth lowers that number to six.
2:24pm – And here is the new pendulum.
| Labor Seats | Coalition Seats | ||
| Seat | Margin | Seat | Margin |
| Gilmore (NSW) | ALP 0.2% | Deakin (VIC) | LIB 0.02% |
| Menzies (VIC) | ALP 0.4% | Bennelong (NSW) | LIB 0.1% |
| Lyons (TAS) | ALP 0.9% | Sturt (SA) | LIB 0.5% |
| Lingiari (NT) | ALP 0.9% | Moore (WA) | LIB 0.9% |
| Robertson (NSW) | ALP 2.3% | Canning (WA) | LIB 1.1% |
| Paterson (NSW) | ALP 2.6% | Casey (VIC) | LIB 1.4% |
| Tangney (WA) | ALP 3.0% | Bass (TAS) | LIB 1.4% |
| Boothby (SA) | ALP 3.3% | Dickson (QLD) | LNP 1.7% |
| Bullwinkel (WA) | ALP 3.3% | Cowper (NSW) | NAT 2.4% vs IND |
| Chisholm (VIC) | ALP 3.3% | Bradfield (NSW) | LIB 2.5% vs IND |
| McEwen (VIC) | ALP 3.4% | Nicholls (VIC) | NAT 2.5% vs IND |
| Parramatta (NSW) | ALP 3.7% | Aston (VIC) | LIB 2.6% |
| Wills (VIC) | ALP 4.6% vs GRN | Banks (NSW) | LIB 2.6% |
| Hunter (NSW) | ALP 4.8% | Monash (VIC) | LIB 2.9% |
| Reid (NSW) | ALP 5.2% | Longman (QLD) | LNP 3.1% |
| Blair (QLD) | ALP 5.2% | Bonner (QLD) | LNP 3.4% |
| Bruce (VIC) | ALP 5.3% | Wannon (VIC) | LIB 3.4% vs IND |
| Werriwa (NSW) | ALP 5.3% | Leichhardt (QLD) | LNP 3.4% |
| Shortland (NSW) | ALP 6.0% | Hughes (NSW) | LIB 3.5% |
| Eden-Monaro (NSW) | ALP 6.1% | Flynn (QLD) | LNP 3.8% |
| Macquarie (NSW) | ALP 6.3% | Forrest (WA) | LIB 4.2% |
| Dobell (NSW) | ALP 6.5% | Forde (QLD) | LNP 4.2% |
| Dunkley (VIC) | ALP 6.8% | Petrie (QLD) | LNP 4.4% |
| Holt (VIC) | ALP 7.1% | Durack (WA) | LIB 4.7% |
| Hawke (VIC) | ALP 7.6% | Bowman (QLD) | LNP 5.5% |
| Corangamite (VIC) | ALP 7.8% | Lindsay (NSW) | LIB 6.1% |
| Cooper (VIC) | ALP 7.8% vs GRN | Flinders (VIC) | LIB 6.2% |
| Greenway (NSW) | ALP 8.0% | Capricornia (QLD) | LNP 6.6% |
| Richmond (NSW) | ALP 8.2% | O’Connor (WA) | LIB 6.7% |
| Whitlam (NSW) | ALP 8.3% | Hume (NSW) | LIB 6.9% |
| Pearce (WA) | ALP 8.8% | Groom (QLD) | LNP 6.9% vs IND |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | ALP 8.9% | Berowra (NSW) | LIB 7.5% |
| Rankin (QLD) | ALP 9.1% | Braddon (TAS) | LIB 8.0% |
| Moreton (QLD) | ALP 9.1% | La Trobe (VIC) | LIB 8.4% |
| Solomon (NT) | ALP 9.4% | Fisher (QLD) | LNP 8.7% |
| Swan (WA) | ALP 9.4% | Fairfax (QLD) | LNP 9.0% |
| Isaacs (VIC) | ALP 9.5% | McPherson (QLD) | LNP 9.3% |
| Macarthur (NSW) | ALP 9.8% | Calare (NSW) | NAT 9.7% vs IND |
| Cowan (WA) | ALP 9.9% | Riverina (NSW) | NAT 9.7% |
| Gorton (VIC) | ALP 10.0% | Grey (SA) | LIB 10.1% |
| Hasluck (WA) | ALP 10.1% | Hinkler (QLD) | LNP 10.1% |
| McMahon (NSW) | ALP 10.5% | Dawson (QLD) | LNP 10.4% |
| Lilley (QLD) | ALP 10.5% | Mitchell (NSW) | LIB 10.5% |
| Makin (SA) | ALP 10.8% | Fadden (QLD) | LNP 10.6% |
| Gellibrand (VIC) | ALP 11.2% | Page (NSW) | NAT 10.7% |
| Hotham (VIC) | ALP 11.6% | Wright (QLD) | LNP 10.9% |
| Oxley (QLD) | ALP 11.6% | Moncrieff (QLD) | LNP 11.2% |
| Adelaide (SA) | ALP 11.9% | Wide Bay (QLD) | LNP 11.3% |
| Bendigo (VIC) | ALP 12.0% | Cook (NSW) | LIB 11.7% |
| Barton (NSW) | ALP 12.0% | Herbert (QLD) | LNP 11.8% |
| Macnamara (VIC) | ALP 12.2% | Lyne (NSW) | NAT 13.8% |
| Canberra (ACT) | ALP 12.2% vs GRN | New England (NSW) | NAT 15.2% |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | ALP 12.2% | Farrer (NSW) | LIB 16.4% |
| Calwell (VIC) | ALP 12.4% | Barker (SA) | LIB 16.6% |
| Corio (VIC) | ALP 12.5% | Parkes (NSW) | NAT 18.1% |
| Lalor (VIC) | ALP 12.8% | Mallee (VIC) | NAT 19% |
| Spence (SA) | ALP 12.9% | Gippsland (VIC) | NAT 20.6% |
| Bean (ACT) | ALP 12.9% | Maranoa (QLD) | LNP 22.1% |
| Ballarat (VIC) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Blaxland (NSW) | ALP 13.1% | ||
| Burt (WA) | ALP 13.3% | ||
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | ALP 13.3% | Curtin (WA) | IND 1.3% vs LIB |
| Chifley (NSW) | ALP 13.6% | Fowler (NSW) | IND 1.4% vs ALP |
| Franklin (TAS) | ALP 13.7% | Ryan (QLD) | GRN 2.6% vs LNP |
| Perth (WA) | ALP 14.4% | Mackellar (NSW) | IND 3.3% vs LIB |
| Cunningham (NSW) | ALP 15.1% | Kooyong (VIC) | IND 3.5% vs LIB |
| Watson (NSW) | ALP 15.1% | Brisbane (QLD) | GRN 3.7% vs LNP |
| Scullin (VIC) | ALP 15.3% | Goldstein (VIC) | IND 3.9% vs LIB |
| Fenner (ACT) | ALP 15.7% | Melbourne (VIC) | GRN 6.9% vs ALP |
| Kingston (SA) | ALP 16.4% | Indi (VIC) | IND 8.9% vs LIB |
| Sydney (NSW) | ALP 16.5% vs GRN | Wentworth (NSW) | IND 9.0% vs LIB |
| Fraser (VIC) | ALP 16.6% | Warringah (NSW) | IND 9.4% vs LIB |
| Fremantle (WA) | ALP 16.7% | Griffith (QLD) | GRN 10.5% vs LNP |
| Brand (WA) | ALP 17.1% | Mayo (SA) | CA 12.3% vs LIB |
| Grayndler (NSW) | ALP 17.4% vs GRN | Kennedy (QLD) | KAP 13.1% vs LNP |
| Newcastle (NSW) | ALP 17.9% | Clark (TAS) | IND 20.8% vs ALP |
2:17pm – In terms of the degree of change, 46% of Blaxland consists of new voters, with over 30% of voters in Bennelong, Watson and McMahon. Over a quarter of voters are new to Warringah, Grayndler, Parramatta and Bradfield.
Outside Sydney, Riverina is most changed with almost a quarter of voters being new. Hume is also 23% new.
2:13pm – Changes were minor in northern NSW. Richmond, Page, Cowper and Lyne are either unchanged, or very close to it. New England has expanded slightly in two directions but has maintained its identity.
The Central Coast seats of Dobell and Robertson have also been left alone, with very minor changes to Shortland and Newcastle.
Paterson has contracted on its western edge, losing Kurri Kurri to Hunter, cutting Meryl Swanson’s margin from 3.3% to 2.6% and increasing Labor’s margin in Hunter from 4.0% to 4.8%.
Changes were much more dramatic in the south-east of the state. Cunningham has been largely left alone. Whitlam has taken in the remainder of the Wingecarribee Shire from Hume, but it already covered most of the population centres in that council area.
Eden-Monaro has expanded north to take in Goulburn from Hume, losing Tumut, Tumbarumba and Yass to the west of the Great Dividing Range and the ACT.
Calare has been left alone and Parkes has been slightly changed, but Riverina has moved a great deal east, expanding to meet the ACT and take in Tumut, Tumbarumba, Yass and Upper Lachlan. Farrer has been untouched.
2:06pm – Okay, an hour after the proposal was published, I now have the space to actually look at the maps.
On the north shore, Mackellar has expanded south into Warringah, with Warringah then compensating by moving west into North Sydney.
The committee has taken the Liberal Party’s approach of then dividing up the remainder of North Sydney into two parts between the Labor seat of Bennelong and the Liberal seat of Bradfield. This is good news for Paul Fletcher.
Bennelong has then shifted east, causing the seat to flip from 1.0% ALP to 0.1% Liberal, although margins always have uncertainty. Another analyst could easily see this seat as remaining in Labor hands. Parramatta has also shifted north, although it has spread out both to the north-east and north-west.
In the inner city, Wentworth has lost part of Clovelly to Kingsford Smith and gained Potts Point and Darlinghurst. These areas look small on a map but they are very densely populated and very bad for the Liberal Party so it’s a good sign for Spender.
Plibersek has picked up the Balmain peninsula, but there is no land connection to the main part of the seat. Grayndler has shifted south-west, picking up the remainder of Marrickville (including Albanese’s home area).
I was surprised to see that Kingsford-Smith has expanded past the airport to take in the Botany Bay shore including Brighton-le-Sands and Monterey. Cook has contracted to be more Shire-based, but still has a beach-head in Sans Souci.
Watson has shifted substantially to the west, taking in Bankstown from Blaxland, while Blaxland has expanded north-west to take in parts of Parramatta and McMahon.
Fowler has been left mostly intact, gaining a small area from McMahon. McMahon has expanded further into the Blacktown council area. Greenway has gained areas from the northern end of Mitchell while Chifley and Lindsay are largely intact.
Werriwa has contracted, losing its western and southern ends, while Macarthur has become even more Campbelltown-based, losing the fast-growing areas around Leppington and Oran Park.
Hume is now firmly a Macarthur-area seat, based entirely within the Wollondilly and Camden LGAs with a few sparsely-populated parts of Liverpool and Penrith council areas. It is no longer the vast and disconnected seat that included Goulburn and Camden while skipping over the Southern Highlands.
It’s also worth mentioning Hughes, which was traditionally split between the Sutherland shire and Liverpool. But it has instead spilled over the Georges River into Campbelltown, taking in Ingleburn, Macquarie Fields and Glenfield. This has really hit the Liberal margin.
1:50pm – And here is my interactive map.
1:43pm – Once we factor in the new area of Fowler taken in from McMahon, Dai Le’s margin is cut from 1.6% to 1.4%.
1:37pm – Okay I have fixed the figures for Blaxland, McMahon and Parramatta, will need a few more minutes to calculate a new margin for Fowler using the method used for Kooyong, Goldstein and Wentworth.
Labor margin in Parramatta cut by 0.9%. Bowen’s margin is only up 1%, not 3%. Jason Clare’s margin in Blaxland cut by 1.9%.
1:30pm – Okay small problem with “McMahon” not matching “Mcmahon”. Will change the estimates for Fowler, McMahon, Blaxland and Parramatta. Will take a minute to update my tables.
1:26pm – Hmm potential problem with McMahon, bear with me a minute.
1:23pm – So overall one independent seat has been abolished, and one neighbouring Labor seat has flipped from Labor to Liberal (by the slimmest of margins). The total seat count is 25 Labor, 10 Liberal, 7 Nationals and 4 independents (3 teals and Dai Le).
Interesting takeaways:
- Bennelong flips from 1.0% Labor seat to 0.1% Liberal seat.
- Allegra Spender’s margin in Wentworth increases from 4.2% to 9.0%, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar is up from 2.5% to 3.3%, and Zali Steggall’s margin decreases from 11.0% to 9.4%.
- Paul Fletcher’s margin in Bradfield has been cut from 4.2% to 2.5% against the teal independents. Kylea Tink’s margin in North Sydney was 2.9%.
- Dai Le’s margin has been cut from 1.6% to 1.4%.
- Chris Bowen’s margin in McMahon increased from 9.5% to 10.5%.
- Little change in Labor’s margin against the Greens in Grayndler (up 0.3%) and Sydney (down 0.2%)
- Liberal margin in Hughes halved from 7.0% to 3.5%.
- Nationals margin in Riverina cut from 14.8% to 9.7%.
- Labor margins in Barton and Greenway cut by 3.5% each.
- Parramatta Labor margin cut from 4.6% to 3.7%.
1:15pm – Here are the margins.
| Seat | Old margin | New margin |
| Banks | LIB 3.2% | LIB 2.6% |
| Barton | ALP 15.5% | ALP 12% |
| Bennelong | ALP 1.0% | LIB 0.1% |
| Berowra | LIB 9.8% | LIB 7.5% |
| Blaxland | ALP 14.9% | ALP 13.1% |
| Bradfield | LIB vs IND 4.2% | LIB vs IND 2.5% |
| Calare | NAT vs IND 9.7% | NAT vs IND 9.7% |
| Chifley | ALP 13.5% | ALP 13.6% |
| Cook | LIB 12.4% | LIB 11.7% |
| Cowper | NAT vs IND 2.3% | NAT vs IND 2.4% |
| Cunningham | ALP 14.7% | ALP 15.1% |
| Dobell | ALP 6.5% | ALP 6.5% |
| Eden-Monaro | ALP 8.2% | ALP 6.1% |
| Farrer | LIB 16.4% | LIB 16.4% |
| Fowler | IND vs ALP 1.6% | IND vs ALP 1.4% |
| Gilmore | ALP 0.2% | ALP 0.2% |
| Grayndler | ALP vs GRN 17.1% | ALP vs GRN 17.4% |
| Greenway | ALP 11.5% | ALP 8.0% |
| Hughes | LIB 7.0% | LIB 3.5% |
| Hume | LIB 7.7% | LIB 6.9% |
| Hunter | ALP 4.0% | ALP 4.8% |
| Kingsford Smith | ALP 14.5% | ALP 13.3% |
| Lindsay | LIB 6.3% | LIB 6.1% |
| Lyne | NAT 13.8% | NAT 13.8% |
| Macarthur | ALP 8.5% | ALP 9.8% |
| Mackellar | IND vs LIB 2.5% | IND vs LIB 3.3% |
| Macquarie | ALP 7.8% | ALP 6.3% |
| McMahon | ALP 9.5% | ALP 10.5% |
| Mitchell | LIB 10.7% | LIB 10.5% |
| New England | NAT 16.4% | NAT 15.2% |
| Newcastle | ALP 18.0% | ALP 17.9% |
| North Sydney (Abolished) | IND vs LIB 2.9% | |
| Page | NAT 10.7% | NAT 10.7% |
| Parkes | NAT 17.8% | NAT 18.1% |
| Parramatta | ALP 4.6% | ALP 3.7% |
| Paterson | ALP 3.3% | ALP 2.6% |
| Reid | ALP 5.2% | ALP 5.2% |
| Richmond | ALP 8.2% | ALP 8.2% |
| Riverina | NAT 14.8% | NAT 9.7% |
| Robertson | ALP 2.3% | ALP 2.3% |
| Shortland | ALP 5.8% | ALP 6.0% |
| Sydney | ALP vs GRN 16.7% | ALP vs GRN 16.5% |
| Warringah | IND vs LIB 11.0% | IND vs LIB 9.4% |
| Watson | ALP 15.1% | ALP 15.1% |
| Wentworth | IND vs LIB 4.2% | IND vs LIB 9.0% |
| Werriwa | ALP 5.8% | ALP 5.3% |
| Whitlam | ALP 10.1% | ALP 8.3% |
12:55pm – And here is my estimates of primary vote and 2PP by seat. I’ll be back with the margin estimates in a minute.
I’ll come back to analyse in a bit but at first glance I notice that the 2PP in Bennelong is 50.1% to the Liberal Party.
| Seat | ALP 2PP | LNP 2PP | ALP prim | LNP prim | GRN prim | IND prim |
| Banks | 47.4 | 52.6 | 35.8 | 44.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Barton | 62.0 | 38.0 | 48.0 | 29.4 | 11.0 | 0.0 |
| Bennelong | 49.9 | 50.1 | 32.1 | 40.7 | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Berowra | 42.5 | 57.5 | 23.9 | 47.2 | 14.9 | 4.6 |
| Blaxland | 63.1 | 36.9 | 51.7 | 27.1 | 6.7 | 1.0 |
| Bradfield | 43.8 | 56.2 | 17.7 | 43.7 | 8.6 | 25.3 |
| Calare | 34.5 | 65.5 | 15.1 | 47.7 | 4.6 | 20.4 |
| Chifley | 63.6 | 36.4 | 53.0 | 24.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| Cook | 38.3 | 61.7 | 24.0 | 53.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 |
| Cowper | 40.5 | 59.5 | 14.0 | 39.5 | 5.9 | 26.2 |
| Cunningham | 65.1 | 34.9 | 41.2 | 24.5 | 20.7 | 0.0 |
| Dobell | 56.5 | 43.5 | 42.9 | 33.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Eden-Monaro | 56.1 | 43.9 | 38.5 | 34.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 |
| Farrer | 33.6 | 66.4 | 19.0 | 52.3 | 9.1 | 3.2 |
| Fowler | 55.9 | 44.1 | 36.6 | 17.6 | 4.9 | 28.3 |
| Gilmore | 50.2 | 49.8 | 35.9 | 42.0 | 10.2 | 4.2 |
| Grayndler | 76.7 | 23.3 | 52.7 | 17.8 | 21.0 | 1.5 |
| Greenway | 58.0 | 42.0 | 44.8 | 33.4 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| Hughes | 46.5 | 53.5 | 27.9 | 40.4 | 6.4 | 13.4 |
| Hume | 43.1 | 56.9 | 24.2 | 42.5 | 5.7 | 11.1 |
| Hunter | 54.8 | 45.2 | 39.4 | 27.3 | 8.8 | 6.7 |
| Kingsford Smith | 63.3 | 36.7 | 47.4 | 29.6 | 15.8 | 0.0 |
| Lindsay | 43.9 | 56.1 | 31.9 | 46.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Lyne | 36.2 | 63.8 | 21.5 | 43.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| Macarthur | 59.8 | 40.2 | 46.9 | 29.3 | 7.8 | 0.0 |
| Mackellar | 42.1 | 57.9 | 8.4 | 40.5 | 6.3 | 38.5 |
| Macquarie | 56.3 | 43.7 | 41.8 | 35.9 | 9.5 | 0.0 |
| Mcmahon | 60.5 | 39.5 | 48.5 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| Mitchell | 39.5 | 60.5 | 25.6 | 52.4 | 12.0 | 0.1 |
| New England | 34.8 | 65.2 | 19.9 | 50.8 | 7.5 | 10.3 |
| Newcastle | 67.9 | 32.1 | 44.1 | 24.4 | 20.0 | 0.0 |
| Page | 39.3 | 60.7 | 18.6 | 45.4 | 8.4 | 13.5 |
| Parkes | 31.9 | 68.1 | 19.5 | 49.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| Parramatta | 53.7 | 46.3 | 40.2 | 36.8 | 9.5 | 2.6 |
| Paterson | 52.6 | 47.4 | 40.1 | 37.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 |
| Reid | 55.2 | 44.8 | 41.6 | 37.9 | 9.4 | 3.1 |
| Richmond | 58.2 | 41.8 | 28.8 | 23.3 | 25.3 | 5.6 |
| Riverina | 40.3 | 59.7 | 24.9 | 43.9 | 6.7 | 3.7 |
| Robertson | 52.3 | 47.7 | 37.7 | 40.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| Shortland | 56.0 | 44.0 | 40.2 | 31.8 | 9.9 | 2.7 |
| Sydney | 75.7 | 24.3 | 51.0 | 19.4 | 22.7 | 0.4 |
| Warringah | 49.3 | 50.7 | 12.0 | 34.3 | 7.9 | 39.8 |
| Watson | 65.1 | 34.9 | 53.9 | 26.5 | 7.3 | 0.0 |
| Wentworth | 48.8 | 51.2 | 17.7 | 37.5 | 10.7 | 29.3 |
| Werriwa | 55.3 | 44.7 | 39.1 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 |
| Whitlam | 58.3 | 41.7 | 42.4 | 29.8 | 10.4 | 1.5 |
12:47pm – The video also indicates that Hume shifts north to take in more of Sydney and go no further than Wollondilly Shire. Eden-Monaro would take in Goulburn.
12:44pm – The AEC’s proposal is still not up, but they have published a video which shows the maps of a few seats. You can see that Bennelong has been moved into North Sydney, wile Bradfield only shifts slightly. This is bad for Labor in Bennelong and also breaks up Kylea Tink’s territory more seriously than if Bradfield moved south to absorb the whole area.
12:04pm – The gazette has been published, and the seat of North Sydney has been proposed to be abolished. 12.8% of all voters in NSW have been moved into a different seat. This compares to 8.3% in Victoria and 14.6% in WA. We have no further details.
12:00pm – The Australian Electoral Commission will be announcing the draft federal electorate boundaries for New South Wales this afternoon. I expect they will be published at some point between 12:30pm and 2:30pm AEST.
My plan is to publish my estimated margins for each electorate, and estimated primary votes for the main party groupings, maps showing the old and new boundaries, some descriptions of what changes have happened, and the pendulum showing the new margins.
@Redistributed – The purpose for my comment was that these areas have little in common, and the demographics are completely opposite. Macquarie Fields is low income and has a lot of public housing. Menai is upper-middle class, and has a very high home ownership rate. Furthermore, Macquarie Fields, Ingleburn, and Glenfield have better links to Liverpool and Campbelltown, not Holsworthy and Sutherland. This is a seat where it needs to gain the Chipping Norton area from Fowler in order to help it get to quota, and it can also gain Liverpool from Fowler, and East Hills from Banks.
Hughes admittedly is a bit-and-pieces electorate, so abolition would be helpful as Bundeena and Heathcote go into Cunningham, Menai and Alfords Point into Cook, and Holsworthy & Wattle Grove into Banks. But you also have the Holsworthy Military Area which would make an electorate massive, and splitting it is unnecessary.
Overall, I wasn’t trying to say that just because Macquarie Fields is lower-class compared to a suburb like Menai, then the boundaries are bad. I was trying to say the boundaries are bad because the demographic consistency in Macquarie Fields and Menai are bad, and the proposed addition of it would create a lack of a sense of a central community, or two in this case.
the victorian inquiry will be held on tuesday 13th at 12.30 pm and the nsw inquiry on wednesday the 14th
Just my luck, I have a uni exam on the Sydney one which I wanted to attend.
I would have liked to add fine tuning into some of the Northern Sydney seats since I have discovered Forestville have more bus services to Chatswood than to Brookvale (there is none to Manly I think).
This will unite Beacon Hill and Narraweena into 1 seat (Mackellar), and also move Allambie Heights and Brookvale into Mackellar. Then, Warringah gains all of postcode 2065 (or maybe Northbridge instead of Greenwich)
i wanted to go to the victorian one but i have to work so i might just file a written submission
An inquiry will be held over the proposed abolition of North Sydney, which has received hundreds of objections from Kylea Tink and her supporters. https://www.aec.gov.au/redistributions/2023/nsw/inquiry.html
The article cited the proposed abolition of Murray did not go ahead in the 2010 VIC redistribution, however in that case VIC’s seat entitlement remained unchanged and no seat had to be abolished. https://assets.nationbuilder.com/northsydneysindy/pages/3714/attachments/original/1722394759/North_Sydney_Living_AEC_Inquiry_Article_28.07.24.pdf?1722394759
By contrast, in the current 2024 NSW redistribution, one seat must be abolished and I think it’s highly unlikely the proposed abolition of North Sydney will be reversed.
Reversing the abolition of North Sydney and abolish another seat means the constituents of the seat that end up being abolished won’t get a say in the decision, which is pretty undemocratic and would prompt massive backlash from the constituents of the seat abolished.
The job of the Augmented Electoral Commission isn’t about making decisions that make everyone satisfied, because that is impossible, especially considering that any decision on abolishing a seat will always prompt pushback from the local community.
It is about balancing current and future enrolments in each electorate, drawing electorates containing the most cohesive community of interest while causing the least disruptions (voter transfer between electorates).
If one seat must be abolished, once a seat has been proposed for abolition, it is impossible to reverse the abolition because it will require substantial boundary changes with no room for further public input. Abolishing a seat without any public input is also undemocratic.
Although I very much appreciate the contributions Kylea Tink has made in the federal Parliament, I don’t agree with the arguments she and her supporters made in objecting to the proposed abolition of North Sydney. What’s more, her proposed alternative boundaries for the North Shore are also very messy and disruptive and unnecessarily split the Ku-ring-gai and Hornsby Councils. I addressed this in my COB here: https://www.aec.gov.au/redistributions/2023/nsw/files/comments-objections/nsw24-COB0226-joseph-lin.pdf
I believe the Redistribution Committee’s proposed boundaries for North Shore seats are sound, however I proposed a minor adjustment so that Bradfield takes in all of Willoughby Council, Berowra does not take in part of Epping while Bennelong taking in all of Eastwood and part of Epping.
It will be a tragedy for Kylea Tink’s federal political career to be cut short in this way, but she can easily find another way to serve the people of Sydney’s Lower North Shore and beyond. This is life. When one door closes, another opens.
What’s more, the door isn’t closed forever. After Parliament is expanded, which could take effect as soon as the federal election after the next, Kylea Tink could recontest a seat covering a similar area to what North Sydney is now.
The email sent out surrounding the NSW inquiry made note of the key matters raised in the objections l.
Matters raised in objections and comments on objections include the:
– abolition of the Division of North Sydney
– electoral division(s) in which the suburbs of Carlingford, Epping and North Epping are located
– electoral division(s) in which the suburbs of Dee Why and North Curl Curl are located
– electoral division(s) in which the suburbs of Forestville, Frenchs Forest and Killarney Heights are located
– electoral division(s) in which the suburbs of Emu Heights, Emu Plains and Leonay are located
– electoral division(s) in which the suburbs of St Ives and St Ives Chase are located
– boundaries of the proposed Divisions of Greenway, McMahon, Mitchell and Parramatta
– boundaries of the proposed Divisions of Barton, Grayndler, Kingsford Smith, Sydney and Wentworth
Notably, there is no mention of the boundaries of Cook or Hughes in the list. I presume that the list provided isn’t definitive but it does interest me that they weren’t included.
I plan on going and arguing for the version of Kingsford Smith I believe best meets the various requirements of the redistribution.
I am actually quite a fan of the version of Kingsford Smith that Labor submitted in its comments on objections. I wouldn’t have dared be so bold as to suggest Kingsford Smith move north into Wentworth, given the history there but good on Labor for trying.
@Conor
Good call out there. I suppose those areas listed are the ones where there isn’t a strong consensus or obvious solution.
My best guess is that the areas that aren’t listed are either:
– Changes which they’ve already ruled out as unfeasible (the objections to the transfers between Parkes, Riverina, Eden-Monaro and Hume perhaps)
– Changes which they are happy to accept without any further discussion (the proposals to neaten up Cook could fall into this category, but I can also see them dismissing this idea outright)
@John @Leon
That’s a shame that you both cannot attend. It might be worth asking if they would allow people to make a statement via phone.
I’ll be looking forward to reading the transcripts of both inquiries, but I suspect it will mostly be unconstructive complaints about Higgins and North Sydney.
I was at the NSW Inquiry today until lunchtime, as was Ben Raue. There would have been around 60 speakers, with both Ben and I in the first hour. I left after lunch (Ben was gone by then) as I could only put up with so many people talking about North Sydney.
Ben and I were the only two who made mention of Kingsford Smith and issues south of the Harbour.
Chris Quilkey, Deputy Mayor of Blacktown, spoke to oppose the changes to Greenway and McMahon.
The vast majority of people making representations were people providing sob stories about their local connection to North Sydney and how it will destroy their sense of community and destroy democracy if North Sydney is abolished.
A smaller but notable number there in support of the AEC’s changes to unite Dee Why and Forestville in Mackellar and against Zali and Kylea’s proposals to push Mackellar into St Ives.
Kylea Tink and Zail Steggal both appeared via AVL from Parliament in Canberra.
I presume it was much the same after lunch.
@Conor
I managed to send someone on my behalf who spoke around 1 or 1:30.
I would be interested to know if anyone actually was there at that time.
It was about the North Sydney area but I conceded North Sydney was gone for good but nevertheless proposed changes to Warringah, Bradfield, Mackellar, Bennelong and Berowra.
Sophie Scamps, Zali Steggall, Kylea Tink: fight for survival splits North Shore teals https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/fight-for-survival-splits-north-shore-teals-20240814-p5k2cj
Looks like they’re gonna throw scamps under the bus
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/unlucky-teal-mp-kylea-tinks-north-sydney-seat-set-to-be-abolished-by-the-aec/video/380bc5632fca132473e952dc75a851c5
@John could this result in a Teal Civil War?
@it already has steagll has openly supported throwing stamps under the bus. And scamps isnt happy This could hamper Labor when the teals are forced to choose a side. As the aec will most likely stick with their decision regarding which divisions are abolished.
If this occurs what are the flow on effects to Bennelong and Bradfield?
I think the teals cannot support Dutton in a hung parliament situation. Assuming Mr Broadbent does not contest AND win by my calculations the only certain vote from the independents is Mr Katter. Depending upon how the North shore seats are reorganised Mr Fletcher may lose his seat to an independent as well
Bradfield is likely a win for the libs and bennelong will be won either way. It also puts mackellar in play for the libs. Though this won’t happen I seriously doubt the aec will make any major changes to the proposal and if they did the objections process’s would just begin again and you’d have stamps complaining. For this reason I think ns and Higgins will be gone.
The Electorate of Kingsford Smith shouldn’t be expanding into the otherside of Botany Bay by having the suburbs of Monteray and Brighton-Le-Sands in it’s electorate. Monteray and Brighton-Le-Sands are very different areas to Coogee and Randwick and would be more sensible to expand North into Wentworth and then Wentworth expanding into Sydney. Instead you have a gerrymandered electorate
it looks like they are havnig a followup hearing for the inquiry in nsw today to for people who were unable to speak last week.
@aaron not necessarliy as i did exactly that in my redistribution.