Griffith – Australia 2025

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65 COMMENTS

  1. @drake qld may gain another seat at the next election which would cause the seats to shrink and push the seats in se further over quota and bonner would expand south or east or se and not west this would cause griffith to lose its western parts. if griffith were to move west into annerley it would probably sure up the left vote in griffith but make moreton vunerable and flip it. i think blair and moreton will fall to the lnp in 2028 if they dont in 2025. but yea griffith will depend on redistribution. rankin oxley and lilley are the more safer seats in my opinion

  2. Moreton won’t fall to the LNP. Greens preferences and the strength of the ALP vote in Acacia Ridge will keep pushing it to Labor. I’m surprised Graham Perrett hasn’t resigned yet – when he does, the ALP would be smart to field a candidate of Chinese origin, to cement votes in Sunnybank and Runcorn.

  3. LNP lost a lot of skin in 2022.
    Part bof that could be due to preferencing the Greens over Jackie Trad at the 2020 State Election.
    My observation is Labor ran dead in Griffith in 2022, they just weren’t prepared for the spend to get Butler over the line.
    She barely won in 2016 in a big Labor swing, and that was after a huge ad soend in the final week.
    So, just a weak candidate.

  4. @ AA in 2019 it was only 2% margin. perrett is more then likely going to be forced out at the next election thanks to gender quotas in the alp requiring them to field 50% in held seats. given they have 8 seats total including senate and only 2 women. 2 men in the lower house are gonna get forced out given the fact that chalmers is treasurer and dick the speaker the only option is perrett and neumann and while albo have intervened to keep neumann in blair due to the risk of losing the seat the same hasnt been said for perrett in moreton and given the fact labor are probably gonna spanked for breakfast at the qd state election i wouldnt rule out the lnp tking moreton on the back of that and the honeymoon for the coaltion

  5. What’s interesting is that Labor has gotten a candidate one year out from an election in a seat that they came third in.

    @Gympie, I don’t think Labor ran dead but rather they underestimated the Greens and they thought the nationwide momentum would carry Terri Butler. I was also blindsided by the Greens win but in hindsight, it is not a surprise as MCM and team had a massive door knocking campaign and aircraft noise was a big election issue that made loyal LNP voters vote Green.

  6. @votante labor have inside knowledge on when the election is gonna be this just adds to speculation labor will go early. the other reason is they were disaffected with the lnp as was the trend nationwide but didnt want labor either.

    the colation usualy finish 1st in griifth but losedue to combined alp and greens vote

  7. @John, I doubt voters want either LNP nor ALP. From 2013 to 2019, the left wing vote was quite split. It was only in 2022 when the Greens leapfrogged Labor, and the LNP too, did the Greens win the seat with the help of Labor preferences. I agree that dissatisfaction with the LNP helped the Greens.

    I don’t buy the early election rumours. I still think it’ll be in May 2025. I do think Labor is playing the offensive rather than defensive in QLD. Bonner would probably be more winnable.

  8. @votante i do too but if they get a post budget poll boost they will go because it will only wear off. the redistribution will be another factor consider

  9. @Wilson Except for the last five years The Greens under Sri have been talking up the local connections between West End and the CBD because they want as many pedestrian bridges as possible. If you look at the two free Bus Glider routes – West End to Teneriffe and Stones Corner to Ashgrove – they basically form a nice transport argument for crossing the Brisbane River. I’m not even counting the ferry routes, which also provide a transport option almost exclusively for the inner city.

    The planning changes coming through are going to have to reset a lot of the Greater Brisbane electorates because it’s going to put major stress on the “community of interest” arguments. You can’t turn four house blocks into a 274 metre tower without having significant impacts on electorate boundaries.

    Depending on where the shifts occur, I can see The Greens with a permanent Brisbane electorate and the LNP and ALP sitting with permanent marginal seats in Ryan and Griffith.

    While it would be unusual for an electorate in the Brisbane CBD to cross the river, it isn’t a deal-breaker especially if it relieves pressure on adjoining electorates. In my opinion having Petrie cross from Moreton to a tiny sliver of Brisbane along the Ted Smout Bridge is much more dramatic than the 250 metre gap of the Brisbane River.

  10. @Votante Terri Butler was much more interested in what ministry she’d get than working her electorate. You can’t do the bare minimum and expect to get back in.

  11. haven’t really heard any justification for it that doesn’t boil down to packing and cracking greens seats

  12. The Australian is now reporting that Renee Coffey’s path to the Labor nomination is now harder, as the Left faction will put forward either Katie Havelberg, head of the Professionals Australia union, or this year’s Lord Mayor candidate Tracey Price, to contest the nomination.

  13. My feeling is that MCM will retain this handily. The LNP don’t have much incentive to run hard here given the 2CP margin, and Labor will suffer with the loss of Terri Butler’s personal vote and general movement of left-wing Labor voters to MCM. MCM may suffer a small cut in his margin if the LNP experience somewhat of a recovery in their vote, though it’s also possible he may increase his 2CP margin given that sometimes LNP voters are more happy to vote Green once there’s a Green incumbent – not sure at this stage. I think Ryan is the next hardest seat for the Greens to retain, and Brisbane the most difficult.

  14. @Greens Political Party Supporter I’d agree with this assessment. Griffith will be Greens for the foreseeable future with Max Chandler-Mather who, to his credit, has done a great job at snatching an electorate Labor (and Terri Butler) thought they could keep by riding the anti-Morrison wave. Ryan, due to its demos is also Greens vs LNP (talk about extremes).

    Brisbane is more lineball given it was minor party preferences that put Bates above Labor (if it went the other way, Madonna Jarratt would’ve won easily), and some parts of Brisbane is still fairly centre politically rather than inner-city left. It was held by Labor for many years before 2010 so it’s still salvageable IMO (but they’ll need to work hard, VERY HARD). They’ll need a very high profile candidate to have a shot at dislodging Stephen Bates (who’s comparatively unremarkable to be honest), maybe Grace Grace if she resigns after losing this year’s general election? Maybe Kate Jones?

  15. Labor was more easily able to win Brisbane before the 2010 election because the boundaries were more favourable to them back then. Prior to 2010, Brisbane panhandled west along the Ferny Grove line, whereas now it panhandles east.

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