To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
The Greenest seat in SA – wouldn’t surprise me if this was but on a target seat for 2025 for the Greens SA.
@CG the greens are a long way from taking seats in SA. tbh id be surprised if they held on to Ryan and Brisbane in QLD. id say theres about 3 in VIC they have hopes of taking, Wills, Cooper and Macnamara will certainly be on their list
Labor will retain this in 2025. Little chance of the Greens picking up a seat in SA/NT/WA.
The primary vote gap between Labor and the Greens is like 20 points here. I think that gap is too big to close in one election. in 3CP terms it looks like the gap narrows slightly to 18.6 points. So effectively the Greens would need to get a 9.3% swing directly from Labor to get ahead of Labor. I think that’s a tough ask in one election.
I reckon Sturt might be a better bet for the Greens in the short-run, at least in getting ahead of Labor. The primary vote gap is only 14.3 points, and in 3CP terms 13.2, so the Greens only need roughly a 6.6% swing in 3CP from Labor to get ahead of them. Sturt doesn’t have a Labor incumbent and no real Labor history at a federal level so I would think Labor won’t be as well-resourced in Sturt in comparison to defending Adelaide. I’d also note that the Greens seem pretty keen to have a good go at the state seat of Dunstan (held by former Lib premier Steven Marshall), which sits in the inner west of Sturt. It looks like the Greens have already preselected their candidate there (Katie McCusker, 2022 Sturt candidate) and are doing regular door knocks according to public social media, so regardless of whether there is a byelection in Dunstan soon, the long-term campaigning they do in Dunstan will probably help them federally for a Sturt campaign.
Interestingly the Liberals have won this seat before, but lost it in 2004 on TPP despite having a higher primary vote. Ever since then Labor has won the seat and they have won the primary vote there at every election since except for in 2016. However, in 2022, Labor and the Liberals only had a primary vote gap between them of 7.98%, but because the Greens got 20.10% of the vote, Labor managed to get 61.91% of the TPP vote.
However, I should note that the state seat of Adelaide was held by Rachel Sanderson of the Liberal Party from 2010 until 2022 (when Lucy Hood won the seat for Labor).
Anyway, my call is Labor hold.
Greens haven’t even been able to make much of a a dent in the state seat of Adelaide. While they’re well positioned to pick up a lot of left of centre vote from Labor, they’re probably better positioned in areas where the Liberals tend to win (on primaries if not the seat). That’s Sturt as GPPS said above, and at the state level Dunstan and Heysen.
I think Greens will pick up Perth before Adelaide – the two seats are fairly similar but Perth seems to have stronger pockets of Green vote and a lot of Gorman’s primary vote may disappear (WA is unpredictable after 2021. There seem to be some flurries of doorknocking there too.
Neither compare to actual Green target seat Richmond though, where they preselected 2 years out.
Labor will retain this in 2025. There was rumblings that the right faction of the ALP would kick Steve and Senator Marielle Smith would take the spot but its clear thats not happening. Also see commentary on Sturt re potential green win in the future, no way its happening in Adelaide with the western suburb belt