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The Only Possible way for the LNP to lose this seat is if Independent Noosa MP Sandy Bolton decides to contest.
The issue is Noosa is very demographically different from the rest of the seat. A lot of the rest of the seat is White working class/One Nation voters etc so Sandy Bolton probably will not appeal in Maryborough.
Sandy Bolton wouldn’t win this. Never.
This is way more than just Noosa. It’s also got towns like Cherbourg, Kikilvan, Poona, Rainbow Beach, Tiaro, Tinnanbar and Tin Can Bay. It’s also got the cities of Gympie and Maryborough. It’s also got Fraser Island (K’gari).
@Nether Portal i never said Sandy Bolton would win, at best she’d poll 3rd with 14-15% of first preferences, nearly half of which would come from the LNP putting them well below 40%