ALP 13.7%
Incumbent MP
Julie Collins, since 2007.
Geography
Franklin covers the southern parts of Tasmania and the eastern suburbs of Hobart. The seat is divided into two parts, with each covering half of the voters in the electorate. Half live on the eastern shore of the Derwent River in Clarence and Brighton LGAs, while the other half lives to the south and west of Hobart in Kingborough and Huon Valley LGAs.
Franklin was created for the 1903 election. The seat was first held by William McWilliams, who was a member at various times of the minor Revenue Tariff party, the Free Traders, the Commonwealth Liberal Party and the Nationalists, before becoming the first leader of the Country Party in 1920. He lost his seat in 1922 to the Nationalist candidate. He won the seat back as an independent in 1928 and retained it at the 1929 election but died shortly after the declaration of the poll.
The by-election was won by Charles Frost of the ALP, who lost his seat in 1931 to the United Australia Party before winning it back in 1934. He went on to serve as Minister for Repatriation under John Curtin before he lost the seat to Charles Falkinder of the Liberal Party in 1946. Falkinder held the seat until his retirement in 1966, and Ray Sherry of the ALP won the seat in 1969. Sherry lost the seat to Bruce Goodluck in 1975. Goodluck held the seat for the Liberal Party until he was defeated by Harry Quick in 1993.
Quick held the seat until the 2007 election, and he announced his impending retirement in 2005. He caused controversy in 2006 by endorsing a Greens candidate, sitting MP Nick McKim, for the state seat of Franklin in the state election. The ALP originally preselected Electrical Trades Union official Kevin Harkins, Quick openly criticised Harkins and was seen to be supporting Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin. Harkins was eventually replaced as the ALP candidate by ALP state secretary Julie Collins, and Quick was expelled from the ALP, supposedly for not paying his membership fees.
Collins won Franklin at the 2007 election, and has since won five more terms. Collins has served as Minister for Housing and Homelessness since the 2022 federal election.
- Brendan Blomeley (Independent)
- Julie Collins (Labor)
- Owen Fitzgerald (Greens)
- Josh Garvin (Liberal)
- Peter George (Independent)
Assessment
Franklin is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julie Collins | Labor | 26,147 | 36.7 | -7.3 |
| Kristy Maree Johnson | Liberal | 19,048 | 26.7 | -4.5 |
| Jade Darko | Greens | 12,370 | 17.4 | +1.1 |
| Chris Hannan | Jacqui Lambie Network | 4,215 | 5.9 | +5.9 |
| Anna Bateman | Local Party | 3,535 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Steve Hindley | One Nation | 2,033 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Duane Pitt | Liberal Democrats | 1,434 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Lisa Matthews | United Australia | 1,380 | 1.9 | -4.8 |
| Katrina Love | Animal Justice | 1,097 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Informal | 3,696 | 4.9 | +1.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julie Collins | Labor | 45,392 | 63.7 | +1.5 |
| Kristy Maree Johnson | Liberal | 25,867 | 36.3 | -1.5 |
Booths have been divided into three areas, along local government boundaries: Clarence, to the east of Hobart; Kingborough to the south of Hobart; and Huon Valley in the south-west. While Huon Valley covers a large area stretching to the south-western corner of Tasmania, all of the polling places lay at the eastern edge of the council area.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 62.6% in Huon Valley to 66.8% in Clarence.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 16.1% in Clarence to 21.4% in Kingborough.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Clarence | 16.1 | 66.8 | 22,673 | 31.8 |
| Kingborough | 21.4 | 64.6 | 11,433 | 16.0 |
| Huon Valley | 19.4 | 62.6 | 7,259 | 10.2 |
| Pre-poll | 16.6 | 62.2 | 16,391 | 23.0 |
| Other votes | 15.9 | 60.1 | 13,503 | 18.9 |
Election results in Franklin at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Possible Greens target seat.
If the Greens as expected are going to focus heavily on housing policy then that could be enhanced by a serious campaign against the housing minister. There would definitely be animosity over the HAFF saga, which was by far the most protracted and hostile of the inter party negotiations.
They got around 20% in the state election, and in the 2022 Senate election – a high enough result to not be laughed off if they declared it a Target seat. At a glance it would be one where Greens would need Lib preferences but that’s possible in an election where Liberals goal is to push Labor into minority.
Nick McKim switching to the lower house, risking his political career to contest his old electorate would be the highest profile option. He has gotten as high as 24% here in 2010 though he lost 10% of that 4 years later. That’s not the only option however.
Easy ALP retain if Greens don’t target.
The Greens might have a better chance in Clark once Andrew Wilkie retires. The Senate results show a smaller gap in primary votes between ALP and Greens in Clark than in Franklin. Add to that, in Franklin, there’s a sizeable vote for various populist and minor right-wing parties such as JLN, LDP and One Nation. Their voters aren’t very Green-friendly.
I don’t see the Greens targeting either seat, let alone winning.
Clark would be a much stronger Greens prospect if not for Wilkie.
But even with right wing minors, 3 candidate preferred in Franklin is 33/44/23 (Lib/Lab/Grn).
For comparison Griffith in 2019 was 43/32/25 before going to 34/30/36 in 2022. Can the Greens pick up a similar swing from Labor instead of the LNP without an incumbent? Absolutely – Bandt picked up a 13% swing, mostly from Labor, when he first took Melbourne in 2010. That’s with a retiring incumbent, sure, but also similar “2nd term of an underwhelming ALP government” circumstances.
Add to that the Greens only just missing out on a 2nd seat at the state level, with a new election happening any time now, and that’s good cause for Greens to really pick up the pace of campaigning in Franklin (and the rest of tasmania). But from a different perspective, there isn’t really much else to play for in Tasmania federally – as previously mentioned Clark is unwinnable and the Greens seem to have recovered from their late 2010s slump to the point where the senate seat is safe (and McKim could safely vacate). Either way, seems like a good bet.
Interesting results from Cradoc, a small town in the Huon Valley located 11km southwest of Huonville.
Federal results, 2022:
Primaries:
* Liberal: 28.68% (–5.57%)
* Labor: 23.96% (–10.12%)
* Greens: 23.23% (+2.92%)
TPP:
* Labor: 59.17% (+1.51%)
* Liberal: 40.83% (–1.51%)
Voice referendum results, 2023:
* No: 55.44%
* Yes: 44.56%
State results, 2024:
* Liberal: 38.96% (–3.81%)
* Greens: 24.35% (+1.54%)
* Labor: 18.61% (–4.61%)
I can see Cradoc being a Liberal vs Greens booth in 2025, with the Liberals winning it due to a declining Labor vote going to both the Liberals and the Greens. Does anyone know why the Greens vote is so damn high in such a small town?
Booth comparison from the 2022 federal election, the 2023 Voice referendum and the 2024 state election: https://jmp.sh/zy5G5fe1
Notably the Liberals won most booths on the state level while Labor won most booths in the federal level. A few Greens booths are scattered around the place, both in Hobart and in some small towns that must have a hippie/leftist vibe to them (most notably Cygnet).
What’s interesting though is that few of the booths recorded over 40% primaries for the winning candidate, and only a handful even got over 35%. The range was usually between 30% and 35%, but there were even a few that were lower than 30%. One booth (Southport) was won by Labor on the state level by just one vote.
I will be doing more of these soon. Next up will be Clark.
This seat had TAS’s largest election-day booth at Howrah Primary School in Howrah, with 2088 votes cast.
the ind could be a chance here. labor polled just 36% on the primary vote in a very wide field. if the ind were able to make the 2cp they could clean up the minor party and liberal preferences to win the seat
I think The Greens had a shot at this but fumbled the ball at candidate selection – they went with someone with strong party values, but without any real profile and unlikely to appeal outside of urban booths on the eastern shore. Peter George seems like the strongest contender to seriously challenge Labor dominance now.
This had passed me by. John is absolutely right. Labor trying to defend this from a very low PV. Added complication for Labor here is that Tasmanian voters are canny and know how to use their vote. All of those years of Hare-Clark trainng. Another seat where Labor must be worried. I would say Peter George could get 20% or even slightly less and still win. It is even possible if the Lib vote holds up and they get ON prefs they could make the final two with George.
There was a pretty rogue poll a while back that had the Liberal vote pretty much neck and neck with Labor in the mid 30s – which would be a pretty easy win for Labor, that same poll also had Labor comfortably retaining Lyons though…
@james bonio the greens are no shot here labors primary guarantees them into the 2CP or 2PP and the libs willl never preference the greens (in the forseeable future anyway).
@redistributed doubtful on the lib thing though he would flog them if he did. though even if he polls 10% he could still win all those minor party preferences would hopefully stack up in his favour. although he would need Lambie and the Greens though. this is defeinately a good chance for the teal though because of that already low primary vote. the libs cant win with it so i doubt labor could either.
given how this seat is divided in regards to Kingston and the City of Clarence is there some other way to get to Clarence from Kinston other then going through Hobart/Clark?
Clarence Mayor Brendan Blomeley announced he is running here as an independent.
Could get interesting. Again is there anyway fromclarence to kingsborough except through Hobart?
John
No. No way except in a boat or helicopter. Without doubt the most bizarre boundaries in Australia – and no conceivable community of interest. It is an historical relic that keeps on keeping on. And frankly should be changed – and would make for an interesting Tasmanian redistribution.
@redistribution thanks. I suppose it’s one of those “leftover” issues.
That helps my redistribution proposal. I think the best option is for over quota Lyons to transfer Derwent valley to Franklin. And then I will look at moving Clarence into Franklin or at least part. And maybe move kingsborough into Franklin. I think the issues is the sizeable Clarence population.
The other option would be to put all of Clarence in Clark and move kinsborough and parts of Hobart maybe in to Franklin but I don’t think they’ll go that radical.
the teal here is a good chance 36% primary which we can assume will drop given the anti government vote and the CoL crisis. the other thing in play here will be salmon farming. labor has decided to sit on the fence on this one so theyll lose salmon farmers to teh libs and skate environmantalists to the greens or maybe the teal id say labor will end up about 32% primary at most, though if its any lower then this i dont see how she can win tbh. not only is she up against the teal Peter George but mayor of Clarence Brendan Blomeley. obviously teh libs cant win here but if they run dead and preference the INDs labor could be in trouble d say the will preference Blomeley over George. the other wildcard here is Lambie. if the greens preference the inds (most likely the teal) i think labor will be done assuming the inds finish higher of course. Lambies prefences only broke to labor 63-37 last time.