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Possible Greens target seat.
If the Greens as expected are going to focus heavily on housing policy then that could be enhanced by a serious campaign against the housing minister. There would definitely be animosity over the HAFF saga, which was by far the most protracted and hostile of the inter party negotiations.
They got around 20% in the state election, and in the 2022 Senate election – a high enough result to not be laughed off if they declared it a Target seat. At a glance it would be one where Greens would need Lib preferences but that’s possible in an election where Liberals goal is to push Labor into minority.
Nick McKim switching to the lower house, risking his political career to contest his old electorate would be the highest profile option. He has gotten as high as 24% here in 2010 though he lost 10% of that 4 years later. That’s not the only option however.
Easy ALP retain if Greens don’t target.
The Greens might have a better chance in Clark once Andrew Wilkie retires. The Senate results show a smaller gap in primary votes between ALP and Greens in Clark than in Franklin. Add to that, in Franklin, there’s a sizeable vote for various populist and minor right-wing parties such as JLN, LDP and One Nation. Their voters aren’t very Green-friendly.
I don’t see the Greens targeting either seat, let alone winning.
Clark would be a much stronger Greens prospect if not for Wilkie.
But even with right wing minors, 3 candidate preferred in Franklin is 33/44/23 (Lib/Lab/Grn).
For comparison Griffith in 2019 was 43/32/25 before going to 34/30/36 in 2022. Can the Greens pick up a similar swing from Labor instead of the LNP without an incumbent? Absolutely – Bandt picked up a 13% swing, mostly from Labor, when he first took Melbourne in 2010. That’s with a retiring incumbent, sure, but also similar “2nd term of an underwhelming ALP government” circumstances.
Add to that the Greens only just missing out on a 2nd seat at the state level, with a new election happening any time now, and that’s good cause for Greens to really pick up the pace of campaigning in Franklin (and the rest of tasmania). But from a different perspective, there isn’t really much else to play for in Tasmania federally – as previously mentioned Clark is unwinnable and the Greens seem to have recovered from their late 2010s slump to the point where the senate seat is safe (and McKim could safely vacate). Either way, seems like a good bet.