LIB 8.0%
Incumbent MP
Gavin Pearce, since 2019.
Geography
Braddon covers the west coast and north-west of Tasmania, including the islands to Tasmania’s north-west. The seat covers West Coast, Burnie, Central Coast, Circular Head, Devonport, Latrobe and Waratah/Wynyard councils. It also covers King Island. The seat’s largest centres are the towns of Devonport and Burnie.
History
The seat of Braddon was created in 1955 when the existing Divison of Darwin was renamed. The seat of Darwin was created in 1903 for the first election with single-member electorates in Tasmania, and has always been a northwestern electorate. The seat of Darwin/Braddon had been largely dominated by conservative parties, but has tended to alternate between the major parties in recent years.
The seat was first won by the ALP’s King O’Malley, who held the seat until 1917. O’Malley is best-known for his service as Minister for Home Affairs under Andrew Fisher which saw him take responsibility for choosing the site and town plan for Caberra. He was also largely responsible for the Americanised spelling of the name of the Australian Labor Party. He was strongly anti-conscriptionist and his term as a minister ended when the ALP split, with Billy Hughes joining with the Liberals to form the new Nationalist government. At the 1917 election, O’Malley was narrowly defeated by a Nationalist candidate, and the Nationalist parties and its successors held the seat for the next forty years, with the exception of a single term in 1922 when the seat was held by the nascent Country Party.
The most prominent MP to represent Darwin during this period was Enid Lyons, widow of former Prime Minister Joseph Lyons, who was the first woman elected to the House of Representatives in 1943 and held the seat until the 1951 election.
After the seat was renamed Braddon in 1955, the ALP won the seat back in 1958. Ron Davies held the seat for the ALP up to the post-dismissal election in 1975, when he was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Ray Groom, who held the seat until 1984. He went on to enter state politics and was Premier from 1992 to 1996. Chris Miles succeeded Groom in Braddon and held the seat for the Liberal Party up to the 1998 election, when he was defeated by Sid Sidebottom.
Sidebottom held the seat for the ALP from 1998 to 2004, when he lost the seat to Liberal Mark Baker in a backlash against Mark Latham’s forestry policies.
Sidebottom regained the seat in 2007, and was re-elected in 2010.
In 2013, Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley defeated Sidebottom with a 10% swing, but he lost in 2016 to Labor’s Justine Keay.
Justine Keay was forced to resign from parliament in early 2018 due to her late citizenship renunciation in 2016, but she was re-elected at the resulting by-election.
Keay was defeated in 2019 by Liberal candidate Gavin Pearce. Pearce was re-elected in 2022.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Gavin Pearce is not running for re-election.
Assessment
The Liberal margin in Braddon is now substantial, but the seat has a long history of switching back and forth between the major parties, and could be in play.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gavin Pearce | Liberal | 31,142 | 44.1 | +6.2 |
| Chris Lynch | Labor | 15,886 | 22.5 | -9.6 |
| Sophie Lehmann | Jacqui Lambie Network | 6,966 | 9.9 | +9.9 |
| Craig Garland | Independent | 5,538 | 7.8 | +7.8 |
| Darren Briggs | Greens | 4,745 | 6.7 | +1.9 |
| Ludo Mineur | One Nation | 3,065 | 4.3 | -1.2 |
| Darren Bobbermien | United Australia | 1,000 | 1.4 | -2.3 |
| Duncan White | Liberal Democrats | 971 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Scott Rankin | Local Party | 719 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Keone Patrick Martin | Animal Justice | 566 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 5,858 | 7.7 | +0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gavin Pearce | Liberal | 40,968 | 58.0 | +4.9 |
| Chris Lynch | Labor | 29,630 | 42.0 | -4.9 |
Booths have been divided into six areas. Polling places in the Circular Head, Waratah/Wynyard and West Coast LGAs were divided into North West and South West. Polling places in Devonport and Latrobe council areas have been grouped into one group. Polling places in Burnie and Central Coast council areas have been grouped together separately.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all six areas, ranging from 51.0% in Burnie to 63.5% on King Island.
| Voter group | JLN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Devonport-Latrobe | 10.1 | 58.9 | 14,271 | 20.2 |
| North-West | 6.1 | 62.4 | 9,642 | 13.7 |
| Central Coast | 10.6 | 58.5 | 8,937 | 12.7 |
| Burnie | 9.8 | 51.0 | 7,594 | 10.8 |
| South-West | 16.2 | 53.7 | 1,594 | 2.3 |
| King Island | 5.4 | 63.5 | 705 | 1.0 |
| Pre-poll | 10.5 | 57.3 | 18,872 | 26.7 |
| Other votes | 10.8 | 59.2 | 8,983 | 12.7 |
Election results in Braddon at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Jacqui Lambie Network.
I’m not a local here so I would like to know why this electorate bucked the national trend.
@ Bob, I think the 2022 Federal election, was not a classic change election rather a series of by-elections. Scomo alienated 3 key demographics, Chinese Australian voters, WA voters and Small l liberal/Teal voters (including Higgins/Boothby and 3 Brisbane seats). All but one of the seats that changed hands can fall under one of these 3 catergories. The one exception being the seat of Robertson which does not fall under any of the 3 and is a classic bellweather. Tangney was a combination of all 3 key demographics. Other classic swing seats such as Lindsay, Herbert, Longman did not fall the national trend. One more thing, Tasmania was not as affected by the Bushfires and Covid so Scomo’s standing would have been better.
@Nimalan that is the best summation of why there was a change of Government at the 2022 election.
Braddon and Bass are like brothers – they’ve flipped in the same direction since 1998. They helped extend the lives of the Howard Government in 2004 and the Morrison Government in 2019 when they flipped from Labor to Liberal.
2022’s election was a weird one with many seats bucking the national 2PP swing. Braddon, Bass and Longman were marginal Liberal seats but they increased their margins. The Liberals almost flipped Lingiari, Gilmore and Lyons. There were big swings away from Labor in many of their heartland seats in metro Melbourne. 2007’s and 2013’s changes of Government had their share of seats bucking the trend (e.g. Swan in 2007, Greenway in 2013) but there were much fewer.
On the other hand, I would point out there’s many seats that had huge swings to Labor, many with double digit swings. I’d agree that 2022 was basically a series of mini-elections rather than a normal election with consistent swings with the general demographics and geography determining the swing and the direction.
@Votante on TPP Longman had a 0.20% swing against the LNP, but that’s still only a tiny swing against them. Tasmania itself actually had a statewide swing on both primaries and TPP to the Liberals and against Labor. In fact Labor’s primary vote in Tasmania was actually lower than their primary vote in Queensland (only just though). The statewide result in Tasmania was:
House of Representatives:
Primaries:
Liberal: 32.94% (+2.31%)
Labor: 27.26% (–6.35%)
Greens: 12.00% (+1.88%)
JLN: 6.79% (+6.79%)
One Nation: 3.99% (+1.20%)
UAP: 1.84% (–3.01%)
Liberal Democrats: 1.45% (+1.45%)
AJP: 1.36% (+0.88%)
Local: 1.22% (+1.22%)
Independents: 11.50% (–1.84%)
Seats:
Labor: 2 (±0)
Liberal: 2 (±0)
Independent (Andrew Wilkie): 1 (±0)
TPP:
Labor: 54.33% (–1.63%)
Liberal: 45.67% (+1.63%)
Senate:
Votes:
Liberal: 32.02% (+0.56%)
Labor: 27.04% (–3.55%)
Greens: 15.48% (+2.91%)
JLN: 8.64% (–0.28%)
One Nation: 3.88% (+0.43%)
Legalise Cannabis: 3.03% (+1.85%)
Liberal Democrats: 1.91% (+1.23%)
SFF: 1.90% (+0.16%)
UAP: 1.62% (–1.02%)
Local: 1.44% (+1.44%)
AJP: 1.37% (0.09%)
Sustainable Australia: 0.96% (+0.45%)
IMOP: 0.30% (+0.30%)
Federation: 0.17% (+0.17%)
Ungrouped: 0.23% (–1.99%)
Seats:
Liberal: 2 (4; –1)
Labor: 2 (4; ±0)
Greens: 1 (2; ±0)
JLN: 1 (2; +1)
@Nether Portal, you’re right about Longman. There was some 2019-style hype in the media about Labor winning Braddon/Bass as well as Lindsay and others but Labor ended up going backwards.
Labor will be playing the defensive in 2025 especially in Lyons so they may be less inclined to campaign in Braddon.
Labor might have a shot here if it is true that Pearce is trying to have Archer booted from the party. This right winger is making the Liberal party look like a fascist party with his leader every single day.
Archer is actually popular and would easily win as an independent. I really hope Jacqui Lambie seriously considers running here because Tasmania is more of a working-class timber loving state. And if the party keeps shifting to the right they will have no appeal here.
I don’t think Labor would be too fussed about trying to win here or Bass. Tasmania Labor’s resources would be used to defend Lyons. Labor also have got lower hanging fruit in Deakin, Menzies, Sturt and Banks to offset a potential loss in Lyons or Gilmore.
Labor won’t win bass or Brandon and Lyons is as good as gone. Should of happened in 2019
I don’t think Bridget Archer will be booted out. Her margin is very thin and it’s quite rare to do a preselection challenge in a marginal seat unless the sitting member is super unpopular and there’s a ‘saviour’ waiting somewhere. There’s some hope in her defending the seat.
Not sure what happened here in Braddon in 2022. The swing TO the Liberals was pretty big and now the Lib margin is pretty high. There’s no way Labor will target this in 2025.
The liberals are pretty popular in Brandon and Tasmania as a whole due to the shambles of the state party. While I don’t agree with bridget archer on many things she stands up for what she believes a d she holds the seat so why fix it if it ain’t broke
Independent Candidate from 2022 Craig Garland is now the seventh member of Braddon for Tasmania’s House of Assembly. Garland finished fourth in the seat with 49% of his preferences going to JLN, 29% to ALP & 22% to Libs.
Bit of a weird one here – Gavin Pearce has not re-nominated for preselection, and clearly no one saw it coming as no other candidate put their hand up either.
It could be part of his ongoing stoush with Bridget Archer
there is an article here but its paywalled anyone know what it say?
8 % is a relatively large margin. . Unlikely to change
Mp in one election
@mick agreed even with Gavin it wont go labor if you look at the tasmanian election braddon was by far there strongest area. i think Lyons is gonna flip though
Pearce confirmed as retiring at the next election, possible replacements include Giovanna Simpson and Vonette Mead, both of whom unsuccessfully ran as Liberals in Braddon at the last state election.
@Oguh that’s a shocking announcement.
I still think the Liberals will retain this though.
Would Jeremy Rockcliff go federal? He is a Braddon MP after all.
@np i expected it. it will be retrained but obvious loss of personal vote. expect lyons to fall to the libs and bass retained by archer. i would of thought they could do better in franklin but evidently not?
@redistributed hes just won a state election so doubt it. maybe after hes doenas premier
Redistributed, that is a possibility and could happen if Rockliff struggles to hold a minority government together. Alternatively, one of the other Braddon MP’s (Roger Jaensch or Felix Ellis) could run instead.
John, he didn’t ”win the state election”. Nobody won. no majority.
You win by getting a majority of seats, plain and simple. Labor didn’t win NSW 2023 with this same logic which I agree.
@daniel t you win by being in government
J-Rock for Canberra?
Will be interesting to see who the LNP preselect for this electorate now Gavin Pearce isn’t contesting here.
It has been reported that former 2024 State Election candidate and Burnie Deputy Mayor Giovanna Simpson has put her hand up for Liberal preselection. This is per the Preselection Updates Google Sheets.
@James anywhere where those sheets can be found?
@SCart – here is the spreadsheet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1boH2Unx9x0Wi_EGTwWYAgJcY8SMrF-SUaXRb5Aav9KE/edit?gid=0#gid=0
PM Anthony Albanese has unveiled Senator Anne Urquhart as the “soon-to-be” Labor candidate to succeed retiring Liberal incumbent Gavin Pearce at the next federal election.
This would create a vacancy to be filled as her seat is not up for re-election.
Liberal hold.
Is Urquhart contesting this seat because she wants to retire and pick up the resettlement allowance on the way out? Either that or a factional deal seem the only explanations. Makes no sense to go out midterm otherwise.
I’m not sure if quitting the senate allows you to qualify for the resettlement allowance. I smell something suspicious as I don’t see Braddon as winnable for Labor.
Section 8.8(b) of the relevant determination reads:
“ defeat at an election (including defeat at an election where he or she has campaigned to be elected to represent a different electoral division or to the other House of the Parliament).”
So yes, as it counted for Christensen going house to senate, so too would senate to house.
It’s one of the most unfair, if not the most unfair, parliamentary perk that us taxpayers pay for. Andrew Laming got disendorsed last term and he got over $105,000 or 6 months of base pay.
“Disruption of involuntary termination”. Imagine getting fired and your boss having to pay out 6 months of your base income.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Research/FlagPost/2022/June/Resettlement_allowance
Agree, it is a big rort and overly generous. Gerrard Rennick probably working on same strategy.
Why assume this is a alp
Rort? Maybe it is a gamble. If it pays off will give Labor an extra seat they had not expected!
Easy way to check..
Revoke the resettlement allowance back dated to
When GC.retired
Given how volatile this electorate is I wouldn’t write Labor off however, Labor running a senator who isn’t up for election might suggest that they aren’t expecting a win here. I would say at the moment Labor are more at risk of losing Lyons especially with recent polling that has them behind there.
The margin could narrow but the odds are very much in the Liberal’s favour. I’m not sure what personal vote Gavin Pearce might’ve had.
Another wildcard is JLN’s campaign. This is their home seat after all. JLN has had problems this term with their newest senator quitting the party as did two of their state MPs. Lambie herself is running for senate re-election. She is also campaigning for Rex Patrick – a former Centre Alliance senator now SA JLN lead candidate.
Liberal candidate in the news for claiming to be a “joe average” while owning a multi-million dollar property portfolio
Gaza just because your a millionaire doesn’t mean you can’t also be average Joe. There are plenty of averages Joe’s who just happened to be millionaires. I don’t think being broke or on the dole is the only qualification
Skulduggery afoot. Swing of ~5%+ aginst the liberals expected.
YouGov/ACM poll has Labor AHEAD on first preferences (33 vs 30), with the ind picking up 15%. Sample size only 419, but make of it what you will.
I imagine it must be extremely difficult to find a representative sample in regional seats. Note that they have weighed the results based on a much larger survey – possibly their MRP findings, which generally produced rosier Labor numbers than you may expect, Redbridge have been the same with their rural findings. Not ready to through these polls completely in the bin but I’m prepared not to take much notice of them.