Rankin – Australia 2025

Even though the likelihood is slim the lnp should target here. Removing the treasurer and future leader could deal a major blow to the party same way with frydenberg

The issue here this more like a Labor Heartland ethnic working class seat than Longman which is white working class. I expect a lot of Rankin to become better for Labor overtime with increased immigration. There is a growing Muslim community here. I do concede it is more mixed demographically than seats in Melbourne or Sydney. if the Libs want to knock out Chalmers they are better off supporting a Dai Le Style Independent

@Ninalan at the 2021 census, 6.7% of Rankin was Muslim (identical to the UK in terms of percentage of the population that follows Islam), much higher than the Queensland average of 1.2% (comparable with the US at 1.3%) or the nationwide average of 3.2%.

Labour parties seem to do better among Muslims worldwide, not just the Australian Labor Party in parts of Sydney and Melbourne with high Muslim populations (e.g Lakemba in Sydney is a majority-Muslim suburb). Tower Hamlets is one of the most Muslim boroughs of London, and it is entirely within Labour-held constituencies in both the UK Parliament and the London Assembly. On the borough level, the Aspire Party (a left-wing democratic socialist party in Tower Hamlets) is the largest party. The entire borough of Tower Hamlets is 66.5% religious, with the most common religion being Islam at 39.9% (in some areas it would be above 50%).

Being the Treasurer may boost Chalmers’s profile here. I don’t see this as a target seat. Rankin has a young-ish and relatively large migrant demographic. On the topic of Muslims, I don’t think they will be swinging to the LNP especially if the Gaza conflict is at or near the top of their minds.

@Votante yeah I didn’t include this on my map of target seats. The only Labor seat that I put as a target was Blair.

@ Nether portal
Further to your point about Muslim voters i would look at the success of George Galloway who is a far left socialist among Muslim voters in the UK. I expect the Muslim vote to grow in Rankin and other working class outer suburbs as low property prices make it easier to purchase in such suburbs. Having said that Rankin does have more middle class areas as well.

@Nimalan regarding George Galloway, he won the by-election because the Labour Candidate was disendorsed regarding the comments of October 7 attack plus I would say Galloway probably more like Bob Katter (other than foreign policy) being Socially Conservative and Economically Left-Wing.

Rankin will remain a Labor seat so long as it contains Woodridge and its surrounding suburbs. Due to its reputation for crime and poverty, Woodridge will always remain one of the few affordable places in Brisbane for the long term unemployed and new migrants who haven’t built up much wealth yet. I’ve been told by others that Noble Park serves a similar purpose in Melbourne. It will always be in the economic interests of these places to vote Labor over the Coalition.

@ Marh
I agree he won due to Labor being dis-endorsed in Rochdale but he has won against Labor before in Bethnel Green and Bow 2005 and Bradford West in 2011. He is like you said more socially conservative especially LGBT issues. You are correct he has a very anti-western foreign policy not just on Israel but other issues as well.

Nimalan and Marh, Galloway’s socially conservative views (including anti-LGBT) would play well with the Muslim demographic who are generally quite religious and typically possess those views anyway, as seen in the Muslim majority suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne which voted strongly against same sex marriage in the plebiscite.

@Yoh An, there is a weaker correlation between Liberals to Conservative and Left-wing to Right-wing for non-western countries. Putin for example is Socially Right-Wing, Economically Centrist (Has Left-wing Social Services combined with Right-wing Crony Capitalism), and has a Anti-Western Foreign Policy using non-western leftist rhetoric. There are also Social Liberals that backs Trump and others Western Right-Wingers due to anti-communism.

@ Yoh An
I would also add George Galloway has probably won more support from the Muslim community due to Foreign Policy rather social conservatism on LGBT issues. Although it maybe an effective combination. If such a candidate existed in Australia they maybe do well in Blaxland, Calwell etc. The issue is that in the UK it is FPTP while in Australia they will need preferences and i am not sure if the Libs will preference a candidate with anti-western foreign policy

Agree Nimalan, that is why the Coalition/Liberal Party tactic of trying to win over these Muslim communities may be futile. Whilst they share the Liberal Party/Coalition’s views on social issues, it is a completely different matter for economic and foreign policy issues.

I agree that George Galloway’s stance on Israel/Gaza was a big factor. The stars were aligned for him as the Labour candidate was disendorsed. Worth noting at by-elections is that voters can send a message to the ruling party or the incumbent party knowing that they can’t change Prime Ministers. This means a known personality like Galloway can have more sway than Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer would. I would be careful when extrapolating by-election results to general elections.