Leichhardt – Australia 2025

With Entsch’s retirement, it’s a very possible ALP gain – but the LNP can hold on too, we’ll see. If the ALP sees their nationwide 2PP margin go up as seems likely at the moment, I suspect this seat is gone for the LNP but a lot can change between now and then obviously so take it with a grain of salt.

Agree this is a very possible ALP gain probably the most likely in QLD along with Bonner. This is differenet to other Regional QLD seats that Labor used to be competitive in due to fact that it is not dependent on agriculture or the resources industry it is mostly tourism along with the indigenous communities.

Most likely a labor gain here after warren entsch retirement. The coalition have hel this without him since 1983

@John

John I presume you made a typo? And meant to say the coalition haven’t held this seat without Warren Entsch standing since 1983 which is correct.

Labor held Leichhardt from 1983 – 1996 and 2007 – 2010 when Entsch briefly retired and didn’t stand in 2007. Entsch was first elected to parliament in 1996.

Yes. I’d say he retired in 2007 to avoid the Ruddalide

Also this should prolly return to bell whether the same as Eden-Monaro it was interrupted by the personal vote of a popular mp

We shall see what, if any, swings can be gained in Barron River, Cairns & Mulgrave next year to assess prospects of LNP withstanding Entsch retirement. Barron River is a State bellwether & Mulgrave is only interrupted by Curtis Pitt succeeding his father in 2012, so personal vote.

While I doubt he runs due to his mental health. If Pitt retires in October or if he losses his seat narrowly. Would he win this if he ran? I suspect he would be the strongest candidate for Labor here.

I think this is one of Labor’s best chances of picking a seat up particularly in QLD, without a state Labor government here next the voters will most likely have taken the majority of their anger out.

@Daniel T I wouldn’t think so, I think the LNP will retain this.

This (along with maybe Brisbane if dominoes fall the right way) is probably the only possible gain for Labor next year in Queensland. All the other regional seats are entrenched LNP territory, whereas without Warren Entsch’s personal vote it really is up for grabs given the population demographics up there. However if Queenslanders in the regions are still sulking about Labor by then then it will probably be a marginal LNP hold even if it’s an unremarkable low-profile nobody.

Would Labor try their luck with Elida Faith again after losing twice to Entsch last two elections?

@tommo because entsch is retiring

i think given labro ahve only won this once with kevin07 the local qld boy helping the qld vote and no entsch running and the fact labor is in govt not opposition liberals should retain here

Leichardt has actually moved towards Labor compared to the nation as a whole between 2004-2019. See link below. It is also different from other Regional QLD as it not really based on the resouces industry or agriculture.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47432

Is there an LNP candidate in Leichhardt yet?

@Redistributed not that I know of.

And if LNP win – does/should the new member sit with the Nats or Libs?

Should be Nats, the Libs are insolent at this point and their base have no principles whatsoever because of people like Peda Credlin and Murray on Sky News.

I would personally rather have a Nats prime minister at this point

@Nick the Liberals probably since Leichhardt includes Cairns.

@Daniel T Sky after Dark is more One Nation-aligned and supportive of right-wing populist, national conservatives such as Donald Trump in the US, Victor Orbán in Hungary, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Javier Milier in Argentina, etc. They always criticise the majority of the Coalition. They treat moderates like they’re Labor or the Greens.

I was watching one of their “Lefties Losing It” episodes the other day on YouTube and they praised Superwog (a funny, non-woke comedy duo from Sydney) for a part of their video where they mocked they/them pronouns. That video is a few months old now and Rita Panahi only just found it. That just shows how in touch they are with the modern world. But of course there’s worse “news” out there, like The Project (but that isn’t news).

@Nick the LNP has a practice where the MPs for specific seats sit in designated party rooms. All the MPs from Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Townsville and Ipswich sit with the Liberals, while all the other MPs sit with the Nationals, with the only exceptions being the members for Groom and Leichhardt since although they aren’t entirely based in one city, most of the population in those seats live in Toowoomba and Cairns, respectively.

@Nether Portal

Matthew Guy said the Sky after Dark is like you said more like “the One Nation Party” than the Liberal party and described them as “dangerously politically stupid”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/02/matthew-guy-blames-media-faceless-leakers-for-2022-victoria-state-election-loss

@Nimalan exactly. Matthew Guy is 100% correct. They don’t stand for the Liberals, they stand for the fringe right.

Sky News’ opinion polling seems to be biased too. One of their polls showed a 16% swing against NSW Liberal Moderate and then-Treasurer Matt Kean on primaries in his seat of Hornsby at the 2023 state election, most of that going to One Nation and the Liberal Democrats, as well as polling that showed his approval rating as Energy Minister being mostly negative in Hornsby. While the poll still showed he would win the seat, Sky News referred to him as a “polarising figure among the Liberal base”. This is complete and utter bullshit.

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/matt-kean-faces-16-per-cent-swing-against-him-in-his-seat-of-hornsby/video/f5b210df279dc726508a50b5feda57cc

@Nether P – however both Groom and Leichhardt have been National seats in the past.
Overall my point is that when you think of the membership base of the LNP the Nats should qualify for another electoral or Senate seat.

@Nick they don’t change it though. It goes by the most recent member prior to the 2008 merger of the Liberal and National Parties in Queensland.

Similar with the CLP in the Territory: if the CLP wins Solomon the member sits with the Liberals while if the CLP wins Lingiari the member sits with the Nationals, because Solomon is an urban seat based around Darwin and Palmerston while Lingiari covers the rest of the NT.

Nether, not always the case. Tina Macfarlane who was the CLP candidate for Solomon in 2022 was previously the candidate in Lingiari in 2013 and 2016. I believe she was going to sit with the Liberals had she won in 2013 (which the exit poll predicted Snowdon would lose his seat with the coalition projected to win 94 seats)

@Daniel T thanks for the correction. I think it is different in the Territory because the CLP haven’t won Lingiari (yet).