Welcome to the Tally Room guide to the 2024 election for the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each electorate’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
The next election is due to be held on Saturday, 18 October.
There are profiles of all five ACT electorates. For now, four of these profiles are only available to those who sign up to support The Tally Room on Patreon for $5 or more per month. The profile of Brindabella has been unlocked as a free sample.
Table of contents:
Electorates
There are five electorates which cover the Australian Capital Territory. Each of these electorates elects five members of the Legislative Assembly. Guides have been prepared for all five electorates. Click the links below to view each guide:
You can also use the following map to click on any electorate, and then click through to the relevant guide.
Electoral system
The ACT Legislative Assembly is elected using the Hare-Clark system, which is a version of the Single Transferable Vote. Hare-Clark is also used to elect the Tasmanian House of Assembly.
The basics of the counting system are similar to the system used to elect the Senate, and the upper houses of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Each voter has a single vote. There is a quota, and any candidate who polls more than a quota distributes their surplus to other candidates. Once all surpluses have been distributed, candidates are knocked out from the bottom until the number of candidates remaining equals the number of seats left to be filled.
The details of how this system is implemented make it quite different to the system used to elect the Senate. Firstly, there is no above-the-line voting. This means that voters can only vote for individual candidates, and thus must also mark preferences for individuals. Secondly, there is no such thing as a party order. In the Senate, the party nominates a first candidate, a second candidate, and so forth, and they appear on the ballot in that order. In the ACT, different ballots show different candidates at the top of their party ticket.
This second difference, called Robson Rotation, weakens the power of the parties and strengthens the power of individual candidates. Votes cast for the party without any regard for an individual candidates are randomised between the candidates, so the candidate who can poll the most personal votes will be in the best position. It’s not unheard of for a sitting MP of one party to be defeated by another candidate of the same party.
In the past, the ACT was covered by one seven-member electorate and two five-member electorates. Since 2016, the ACT has been covered by five five-member electorates, each of which have a quota of approximately 16.7% to win a seat.
Redistribution
There were no electorates used for the first two ACT elections in 1989 and 1992.
In 1995, the new Hare-Clark system required electoral boundaries for the first time, and three electorates were created. The seven-member electorate of Molonglo covered central Canberra, Woden and Gungahlin. The five-member electorate of Brindabella covered Tuggeranong, and the five-member electorate of Ginninderra covered Belconnen.
There were minor redistributions in 2001, 2008 and 2012, but these electorates remained largely the same.
In 2014, the Legislative Assembly voted to expand its membership to 25, by creating five electorates, each represented by five members.
The subsequent redistribution kept the electorates of Brindabella and Ginninderra, although they shrunk in territory. Two new districts of Murrumbidgee (covering Weston Creek and Woden Valley) and Yerrabi (covering Gungahlin) were created. The central district of Molonglo was renamed Kurrajong, and contracted substantially to only cover the inner north, inner south and city centre of Canberra.
Redistributions prior to the 2020 election, and prior to the upcoming election, saw a trend of power shifting towards the northern suburbs of Canberra.
Prior to the 2020 election, Yerrabi contracted, with Ginninderra taking in more of the Belconnen district. These two districts were left untouched in the recent redistribution.
Amongst the other three districts, the trend saw southern electorates push north. Brindabella took in half of Kambah from Murrumbidgee for the 2020 election, and the other half for the 2024 election. Murrumbidgee then expanded north to take in parts of the inner south from Kurrajong: taking Deakin and Yarralumla first, and this time taking in Red Hill and Forrest.
You can read my summary of the recent redistribution here.
The following table summarises changes in the vote for the three main parties due to the redistribution.
| Pre-redistribution | Post-redistribution | |||||
| Electorate | Labor | Liberal | Greens | Labor | Liberal | Greens |
| Brindabella | 40.71 | 38.42 | 10.80 | 40.49 | 38.42 | 10.76 |
| Ginninderra | 40.00 | 26.73 | 12.51 | 40.00 | 26.73 | 12.51 |
| Kurrajong | 37.97 | 27.59 | 22.99 | 38.41 | 26.34 | 23.84 |
| Murrumbidgee | 36.06 | 35.57 | 11.73 | 35.65 | 35.96 | 11.80 |
| Yerrabi | 34.16 | 40.59 | 10.18 | 34.16 | 40.59 | 10.18 |
Political history
The ACT was granted self-government in 1989. An elected House of Assembly had previously existed from 1975 to 1986, but had only played an advisory role in ACT government.
The ACT Legislative Assembly was originally elected using party-list proportional representation in one ACT-wide electorate.
At the 1989 election, the ALP won five seats, the Liberal Party won four seats, and eight other seats were won by independent tickets: four seats to the Residents Rally, three seats to the No Self-Government Party, and one seat to the Abolish Self Government Coalition.
Following the election, the Labor Party formed a minority government led by Rosemary Follett. Six months later, the government was defeated, and Trevor Kaine led a minority Liberal government. Kaine governed until 1991, when a split in the Residents Rally led to Follett returning to power.
At the 1992 election, the ALP won eight seats, the Liberal Party won six, and three were won by independents. Follett’s minority Labor government governed for the entirety of the 1992-1995 term.
The electoral system was changed to the current system for the 1995 election. At that election the Liberal Party won seven seats, the ALP won six, the Greens won two, and two independents were elected. Kate Carnell formed a minority Liberal government with independent support. Carnell was re-elected in 1998, when one of the two Greens seats was lost to another conservative independent.
The ALP returned to power in 2001, when they formed a minority government led by Jon Stanhope. All three independents lost their seats, with one going to the Democrats and two going to Labor, putting Labor only one seat short of a majority.
Jon Stanhope won a second term in 2004, when Labor won a majority, with nine seats. The Liberal Party held seven seats and the Greens one.
At the 2008 election, the ALP lost two seats and the Liberal Party lost one, all of which went to the Greens. The ALP and the Greens formed an agreement to support a minority Labor government. Stanhope led the government until 2011, when he was succeeded as Chief Minister by Katy Gallagher.
At the 2012 election, both major parties gained seats at the expense of the Greens. Labor and Liberal both found themselves on eight seats each, with only one Green, Shane Rattenbury, surviving. Labor and the Greens again formed a government, this time with Rattenbury taking on a ministry.
In 2014, Gallagher stepped down as chief minister and was succeeded by Andrew Barr. Gallagher was appointed to the Senate in early 2015.
The Assembly was expanded from 17 seats to 25 seats in 2016. This was achieved by the creation of five five-member districts, replacing the previous three districts.
The 2016 election saw Labor win twelve seats, the Liberal Party win eleven, and the Greens won two seats. The Labor-Greens alliance was renewed after the 2016 election, with Rattenbury continuing to serve as a minister in the Labor-led government.
The 2020 election saw both major parties go backwards, with the Greens winning their biggest seat haul in ACT history. The Greens won six seats, alongside ten Labor and nine Liberals. The Labor-Greens government continued, now with multiple Greens ministers.
Contact
If you have a correction or an update for a single electorate page, feel free to post a comment. You can also send an email by using this form.
If you’d like me to include a candidate name or website link in my election guide, please check out my candidate information policy.
are there any opinions polls for ACT election
Don’t know, but one thing for sure is that the Liberals in act have essentially no path to win government without forming a minority with any potential teal independents who might win election.
I don’t believe there ever has been opinion polls in the ACT.
Lee could win, Barr isn’t very popular and only wins by default by “not being liberal”
The 2012 election was incredibly close. Switch a few thousand voters to the Liberals and Zed would’ve been the chief minister in 2012. The Libs were 1 short of a majority.
But of course that election was at the height of the unpopular federal Labor government. The government isn’t any where near as unpopular as they were in 2012, with polls often seeing Labor trail by 57-43 federally back then.
Tough ask? Sure, but I think an “its time factor” is boiling after almost 25 years in office.
Could Shane Rattenbury back the Liberals if they give him a better deal? I think a Turnbull like (moderate) liberal party could be in minority with the greens.
I certainly think they could work with the liberals if they are as moderate as Kate Carnell was. They would need to offer a better deal to the greens. If it gets them in office, I see no reason why they wouldn’t attempt this.
@Daniel T the ACT is very progressive though and the Labor-Greens coalition keeps Labor in power. The Liberals won’t do a deal with the Greens so they either need a majority or they need some independents which is how they got government in the ACT in 1995 and 1998. The Greens are too woke for the Liberals and that would damage their brand because Sky News would say they’re woke. I do think however that a moderate Liberal Party would be happy to form a coalition government with the teals.
Agree NP, the last Liberal ACT government under Kate Carnell/Trevor Kaine secured the support of conservative or teal like independents to form a minority government. It does appear that a grassroots type teal independent movement is gathering momentum under the leadership of Kate Carnell’s daughter Clare and Tom Emerson, son of former Labor Minister Craig Emerson.
@Yoh An if that party gains seats and votes then Elizabeth Lee could win. But that’s assuming that Labor loses its plurality and there aren’t enough Greens to allow the Labor-Greens coalition to continue governing in an outright majority and the teals don’t decide to back Labor and the Greens and instead decide to go with the Liberals. 25 years is a very long time though.
@Nether Portal not exactly, Labor haven’t had a Majority in ACT Since 2008
@Caleb no, but the Labor-Greens coalition has. I didn’t say Labor had an outright majority I said Labor and the Greens together had an outright majority.
I hope I am not wrong, But this is the first election in the Hare-Clarke system in the history of this country where all 3 main leaders are from the same seat. (Some people claim the 3 leaders in Tasmania were from Franklin in 2014 but I think that needs fact-checking)
@Daniel T fact check for 2014 in Tassie: accurate claim.
At the 2014 Tasmanian state election, all three leaders (Will Hodgman – Liberal, Lara Giddings – Labor, Nick McKim – Greens) were from Franklin,
Furthermore, all three leaders were from the same seat in 2002 in Tassie, this time it was Denison (now Clark) though.
In the ACT in 1995, both the Liberal and Labor leaders (Kate Carnell and Rosemary Follett, respectively) came from Molonglo (which was abolished in 2016). At the time, the ACT Greens had no leader.
Could the Greens beat the Liberals in seats? It seems possible given the low Liberal vote in the ACT but the Canberra Liberals have become a lot more moderate and less controversial than in the past so that might help attract swing voters. I think the Liberal vote could increase a bit but Labor will still win. The Greens will let them get government.
@ Nether Portal
Personally i dont think so. In the ACT there is no real class divide maybe the most middle class place in the world. For this reason, it is unlikely that the Libs will try a right-wing populist strategy as there is no real argument to push for realignment and there is really no real working class here. There are religious people in the ACT so often ACT Liberals are religiously conservative however, this more like Mike Baird or Dominic Perrotett so i dont really think that is an issue. Also there is not really ethnic or religious tension between like there is in Sydney or Melbourne so i dont think Libs will play the Race Card here. There is just more harmony in the ACT than the rest of Australia.
I think the Libs have made 2 policy misjudgments though over the last decade
1. Oppose the Trams which is actually popular
2. Oppose the stamp duty phase out which is actually an economic reform which lower barriers to entry for first home buyers.
@Nimalan the ACT is elite. That’s why there are not many Liberal areas in the main parts of Canberra. In 2022 they did terribly in the three ACT seats and the Greens did amazing. The only booth the Liberals actually won in an ACT seat was the Norfolk Island PPVC where they got 51.02% (–6.28%), which isn’t even in the ACT itself.
I really hope Elizabeth Lee leads the Liberals to win, not just because I’m a Liberal but because the ACT desperately needs change. Trams are good and stamp duty sucks, just ask the NSW Liberals who introduced light rail in Sydney (CBD and Parramatta) and Newcastle (CBD).
@ nether portal
I agree libs had a dire result in the ACT federally but that is due to same factors as the Teal seats like climate. in the ACT libs have the same policy as the Greens and Labor in terms of emissions target and renewable energy.. I support trams and getting rid of stamp duty as well
I’ve been to Canberra a few times before I don’t know as much about Canberra as I do Sydney, Brisbane or Newcastle so I looked at a lot of booth results. A couple areas in the ACT were Liberal in 2019:
Bean:
* Gunghalin PPVC: 51.6% (+7.3%)
* Norfolk Island: 52.5% (+3.2%)
* Norfolk Island PPVC: 57.3% (+4.2%)
* Tharwa (almost): 49.1% (–3.2%)
Canberra:
* Deakin: 54.8% (–4.7%)
Note that some booths like Forde (Fenner), Hall (Fenner), Nicholls (Fenner) and even Yarralumla (Canberra) were won by Labor because of Greens preferences, whereas in a FPTP system the Liberals would’ve won those booths.
Interestingly a bunch of Canberra suburbs share their names with federal electorates. Oh and there’s Mawson which is also a state seat in SA.
If Lee wins she’d make history. She’d be the first Asian Australian to become an Australian head of government. Even though Asians make up nearly 20% of the population they are poorly represented in politics. Note that I consider Armenia to be part of Europe culturally (perhaps Christianity and the USSR influenced this) so Gladys Berejiklian who has Armenian heritage is counted as European. Lee is Korean, which is interesting given how moderate she is (Asians are usually more socially conservative especially those from countries like China and (North/South) Korea).
Elizabeth Lee is a small-l liberal unlike the religious right leaders Zed Seselja and Alistair Coe. An ultra conservative in a progressive, affluent electorate won’t cut the mustard. The issue is that the Greens won’t form a coalition with the Liberals and so she could only become CM if somehow the Libs gain seats (off Labor and Greens) and teals or independents pick up something too.
@Votante I strongly agree with you on that one.
Lee is relatively moderate but the rest of the ACT Liberals are still weirdly conservative due to a legacy of right wing branch stacking.
There’s no point being every Labor and Green voters favourite Liberal if it doesn’t actually switch votes. The only way the Liberals form government is if enough independents win seats off Labor and Greens. I don’t see the new crop being any different to any of the other independent movements. Pocock did well but a lot of his support is Labor and Green tactical voters who will not be on side this time. Maybe Carrick gets up in Murrumbidgee but I don’t think ti will necessarily be at Labor or Greens expense.
It makes sense to have a moderate leader if there’s a general mood for change and Lee is non threatening enough for progressive minded people to give her a go. BUT I am not getting much sense that the ACT government is tired despite Labor being in power for 23 years. There’s plenty of internal renewal and The Greens being involved can keep things from stagnating.
Greens could be the 2nd largest party. They are formally trying to win 10 seats (2 in each electorate), but I would think just retaining all their lucky 2020 gains would be an achievement. Still, we almost saw the Liberals only win 1 seat in Ginninderra last time with Bill Stefaniak not quite winning a seat and lots of preference leakage. Maybe it will happen again – there’s every chance the independents siphon up just enough votes from people that usually vote Liberal that it doesn’t go how they’d hope. Greens best hope of a 7th seat is Ginninderra due to the aforementioned reasons and Jo Clay probably being the standout Green. Could also happen in Murrumbidgee if Carrick swings and misses on Liberal votes, but I don’t think Emma Davidson’s first term has been as successful despite getting ministries. The others will be very hard and Laura Nuttall might not be safe in Brindabella.
Ultimately Canberra is quite politically switched on and it will be a tall order to ask people to vote Liberal when the most prominent conservative figures in political media are Peter Dutton and Donald Trump and the Canberra Liberals are on the same team.
Prediction: Labor minority government.
Most likely with Greens support. Other scenarios like a Liberal minority backing an all ALP government to keep Greens out are also possible (e.g. in a Greens 2nd largest party scenario), and maybe something like Labor getting 12 seats and the backing of an independent could also happen. But status quo still most likely (literally 10-9-6 with the exact same seats).
Not sure where the hate for stamp duty comes from. For most people, stamp duty is rolled up into their mortgage and calculations of how much they can borrow and therefore pay for a house, not an additional cost that isn’t accounted for by lenders. The total amount you can spend doesn’t change, so moving from stamp duty to a land tax will be a one time transfer to current owners. I can only see this being popular amongst those who don’t need a mortgage to buy, or those who get say their parents to pay the stamp duty (although those parents are in for a shock if it gets removed). I can see why removing it is popular in the ACT, and might be in certain areas of capital cities, but I think most people who have a mortgage will know how it works and realise they will be worse off once you take land tax into the equation.
@Mostly Labor Voter
For many buyers, stamp duty (as opposed to a land tax) means paying more in LMI. Another group of people who would prefer a land tax are those who relocate relatively frequently.
@ Nicholas
The other thing is that it allows young people to purchase maybe an apartment first and then move into a detached home when they have children. Otherwise people wait longer to buy the perfect home as stamp duty discourages mobility. Conversely, there are many empty nesters in large properties who could downsize but stamp duty discourages them and if this was not an issue this would free up the home for a young family with dependent children.
@Nicholas, no it doesn’t as people would still be paying the same total amount, e.g. if you are buying a 500,000 house with 25,000 in stamp duty (I am ignoring other taxes ftm) and your maximum spend is 525,000, then getting rid of stamp duty means you have 525,000 for the house which you will pay (because everyone is in the same boat).
Not sure why this is so hard to comprehend?
I mean everyone has more to spend which means they will bid up the price more towards their maximum.
@Mostly Labor Voter
You have your savings to put towards a deposit, stamp duty, and all other upfront costs. You have to cover stamp duty, which means less goes towards your deposit, which means your LVR goes up. If it’s under 80%, that increases your LMI. This affects some but not all home buyers, and the some are those with less savings.
* If it’s above 80%
In theory, maybe. But in practice any money saved by removing stamp duty goes directly to what you can pay, so there are no savings.
I suspect we are in the realm of theory vs practice here.
The chances of independents or teals getting elected are quite slim in my view. Independents for Canberra don’t seem to have the same momentum as David Pocock did two years ago.
Pocock won his senate seat with support from Labor and Greens voters voting tactically as well as teal liberals. The Greens weren’t going to win a senate seat and so they may as well voted for Pocock. Labor voters might have voted for Pocock to keep the Liberals out.
Since there are more seats up for grabs and a lower quota, it seems there’ll be less tactical voting. Elizabeth Lee is more of a moderate and more atuned to the average Canberran than Morrison or Dutton are and would see less teal liberals switching votes.
@Votante I agree it would be more like Sydney or Melbourne where the teal movement was a big failure on the state level. They might get some Labor voters though, since teals got votes from Liberal, Labor and Greens voters in other elections.