Canning – Australia 2025

There’s a difference between ‘running dead’ and ‘not targeting’. They were absolutely not running dead here. You don’t think they’d have wanted to unseat Hastie?

Andrew Hastie has stated that he doesn’t plan to run for the Liberal leadership, per the ABC.

@James I don’t think he was leadership material anyway for the new modern Liberal Party.

NP, he’s going to be leader within the next ten years.

Some trivia: I noticed Andrew Hastie has had the donkey vote twice in a row here, 2022 and 2025. What an odd coincidence.

Np he will challenge and likely beat sussan ley within 12 months of july 1 when leys numbers take a hit. also there were mps on the anyone but Taylor ticket so that helped her beat him but if Hastie will challenge her by the end of the 2026 financial year

Now Andrew Hastie is attacking Basil Zempilas for not supporting and adopting the WA Federal Liberals proposed culture wars in opposing the use Indigenous Flag, Welcome to Country and Net Zero. I wonder how it would end up.

@Marh probably voters will continue to back the WA Liberals but not their federal counterparts. After all the Coalition were the ones to introduce net zero.

@ Marh/Nether Portal
This is suprising. I would have thought if Andrew Hastie wanted to PM someday it is best he stays quiet rather than make enemies which he is currently doing.
1. If the WA Liberals abandon net Zero then they stand to loose Churchlands, Cottlesloe and Nedlands to teals
2. They may pick up Pilbara, Collie Preston with an anti-climate stance but 80% of WA population lives in Perth and it is the most centralised state so there is just not enough regional seats to pick up to form government without Perth seats
3. I dont think WA Liberals can pick up Labor hearland seats like Rockingham, Kwinanana etc to compensate for loss of affluent seats/

Agree Nimalan, the WA Liberals are in the same situation as their Victorian counterparts in the fact that they failed to make much headway in both their traditional inner suburban grounds as well as the swing type outer suburban seats. They only gained the three most marginal Labor seats in the inner suburbs (all within the traditional federal seat of Curtin) and didn’t win any covered by either Swan or Tangney, which probably explains why federal Labor managed to achieve comfortable swings in both seats.

To force Labor into minority, the WA Liberals need to win back the remaining regional seats (Bunbury, Collie Preston and Pilbara), all outer suburban swing seats (Kingsley, Joondalup, Darling Range, Swan Hills and Dawesville) and then most of the inner-city seats which they lost in 2021. To achieve this, they need to stay low on all the controversial social aspects, and Basil is probably helping by avoiding these issues.

even my best estimates put the wa libs 1-2 seats short in 2029. I can see the libs/nats winning Pilbara, Dawesville, Kalgoorlie, South Perth, Bateman, Kingsley, Forrestfield, Riverton, Collie-Preston, Scarborough, Darling Range, Joondalup, Bunbury and Swan Hills. that gets them to 27 seats. Independents/Teals would possible be able to win Fremantle, Thornlie and Bassandean and surely Bibra Lake if on of them was able to get over the Greens.

@ Yoh An
A few points
1. I agree the Libs can pick up remaining Regional seats (Kalgoorlie, Bunbury, Collie Preston, Pilbara) that is 4 in total
2. I would not classify Dawesville as Outer Surburban it is more Provincial. In any case it is a generally a safe Liberal seat
3. Kingsley/Joondalop/Swan Hills are Outer Suburban swing seats i think people are climate agnostic in such seats rather than anti-climate action and i think Labor has figured out than they can just give people electricity rebates when there is concern about higher energy bills. Albo did that effectively. ALso in these mortgage belt seats people are so focused on bread and butter issues they dont have time to worry about Welcome to Country etc and Flags.
4. Focusing on culture wars will make Libs more unelectable in affluent tealish seats like South Perth, Riverton, Scarbrough and Bicton

@nimalan i think the Nats would be better placed to win Kalgoorlie and Pilbara given the Lib->Nat preference rate is higher and Nats do ten to draw some votes from Labor who wouldnt otherwise vote for Libs

@ Darth Vader
I agree those two seats are better represeneted by the Nats. I think Collie-Preston will eventually be lost by Labor even if both parties are pro-climate it will become like Lithgow/La Trobe valley as Coal declines

i reckon Collie is gonna be lost in 2029. it suffered a 19% TPP swing and and 21% (1/3 of the vote) this year. the margin is only 4.3%. there was only 1600 votes seperating Libs and Nats for 2nd place. which is effectively 800 votes deciding that. and only 1200 votes deciding the seat. theres also the redistribution to take into account. my plan is as it was last time. reunite Australind into a single seat. this will have 1 of 2 otcomes depending on the numbers in Murray-Wellington. either ts all in Murray-Wellington which hurts labor as it would then lose the currently pro labor booths in exchange for booths in either Vasse(less likely), Roe or Warren-Blackwood. or my preferred plan of combining the shires of Harvery, Collie and Dardunup. Australin swun away from Lbor this ear and theres no reason to believe that wont continut. theres also the Lib proposal of moving Collie into Roe and it does shares a federal division so that not too hard too believe it wont eventully happen.

Basil Zempilas is from Churchlands – a very teal-ish and wealthy state electorate within Curtin. His margin is also quite slim. It is at least within his own electoral interests to have a climate policy.

Many pro-net zero Liberals have a political dilemma. Critics of net zero should understand the political risks that their pro-net zero colleagues may face especially in teal-ish or urban electorates.

It’s 4 years away anyway people will vote on the most prevalent issue of the day of the poll

This seat is probably one of the most pro-Dutton seats in the whole country. This seat is working class but extremely socially conservative, with the highest No vote in the referendum in WA, even more than the rural seats. Hastie’s strong anti net zero stance and focus on socially conservative issues would be a strong positive here. A more moderate leader/MP would not do well here and hand this seat to Labor. Similar situation in seats like Flynn/Capricornia/Herbert/Dawson.

Votante/Dan, I think that is the dilemma with the Liberal Party and Coalition more broadly. Having a moderate leader and a centrist type of campaign (focus on core fiscal issues and some aspects of law and order) may not play well in the outer suburban and rural districts.

This is what occurred for 2016 under Malcolm Turnbull, the Liberal Party performed strongly in all the inner city, teal held seats but lost ground in the swing type, outer suburban seats (such as Lindsay and Longman).

A reorganisation of the Liberal Party, perhaps being subsumed into the Nationals like the Queensland LNP may be a better option, with a new offshoot centrist party (formed of the teals and moderate Libs) being created in the mould of the former Australian Democrats that would dominate the affluent, inner-city districts.

The problem for the Libs is that by going down the path they’re currently on, they may secure themselves in about 5 seats but then they lose 30+ in the process.

@Dan M Herbert resident here, the Liberals will never again lose that seat (short of Phillip Thompson shooting someone on Flinders Street), and the Nats will never again lose Dawson, Capricornia or Flynn. They’re simply too safe.

Canning also won’t go anywhere, Turnbull still held it, whereas it was Morrison who nearly lost it.

I think Hastie would be fine as Federal leader for the Coalition, but he would do well to emulate the style of likeminded state Premiers such as Dom Perrottet and David Crisafulli, who came from the right or socially conservative faction of the Liberal Party. Both Perrottet and Crisafulli eschewed almost all discussion about anti-woke/culture war issues and focused entirely on community matters (cost of living and infrastructure needs).

It wasn’t Morrison who lost it there was just that strong pro Labor vote In wa in 1 2022. Hastie went against the grain 2025.

I agree with John, It was the WA Covid Swing that made Canning marginal in 2022. That cut across demographics. The creation of Burt made Canning much stronger for Coalition. I think there needs to be an expansion of parliament and a radical redistribution before Labor can regain Canning.

Nimalan any expansion of parliament would draw canning away from perth as Forrest and oconnor would shrink. As any new says would be in Perth. Long story short they missed their change to probably ever win canning

@ Darth Vader
i agree Forrest and O’Connor would shrink this will likely create a new seat perhaps South of the Mandurah Estuaray. I would imagine that Brand and Burt will have to shrink and there will be a seat north of the Mandurah estuary. I expect the Byford-Mundajong corridor will urbanise with a lot of first home buyers if the name Canning is used for the northern seat i would expect that to be very competative for Labor the southern seat will be even stronger for the Coalition so it really depends how naming is allocated. The creation of Burt made Canning even stronger for Coalition but Burt is a safeish Labor seat so Labor did not really have a net loss

Under an expansion as would only get 3 seats. I reckon canning would lose darling scrap and Roxkhampton and gain Harvey one of the new seats would then be in between brand hurt Tangey and swan.

What happened at the federal election in WA was what I had anticipated for the whole country – swings to Labor in inner and middle ring suburbs but swings to the Liberals in outer suburban and regional electorates.

WA isn’t particularly a progressive state like Victoria is. The swings in 2022 grossly inflated the WA Labor 2PP and it was unsustainable, especially in the outer suburbs and regions.

I think Hastie could be a more effective leader and a better campaigner than Dutton. Dutton made gaffes and backflips and policies on the run (e.g. proposing two different referendums and then backtracking within a fortnight) and was ineffective at campaigning. I think in the long term, the National Right faction would rather Hastie than Taylor.

@Dan M/Yoh An, the issue of net zero would be more pivotal in working-class electorates in QLD and WA – both big mining states with a greater proportion of people relying on mining and primary industries. It is a factor in outer suburbs where people are more price-senstitive when it comes to electricity.

Votante couldn’t have put it better. Taylor should have easily beaten Susan Ley but he’s an imbecile who alienated members of his own party and stabbed a few of them in the back. And when it came time to vote they didn’t vote with the guy who screwed them. Now that 3 of Leys voters have gone a Hastie challenge would easily get him up the thing is he can’t do it too early he has to wait until he’s ready.

@ Votante
I agree with your great analysis.
1. 2022 Swing in WA cut across demographics unlike the rest of the country . Kos Samaras mentioned on the ABC panel on 2022 election night it was just one Red Wave. In the rest of the country the swings were concentrated in areas with large Chinese communities or Teal areas incuding Boothby, Higgins, Ryan and Brisbane.
2. i agree Outer Suburbs in non mining states such as Calwell, Lalor/Holt Net zero is a less of an issue as they probably dont care about Coal mining etc. People are most price-senstative when it comes to electricity nevertherless than more established suburbs. I think Labor has figured out that that can be neutralised somewhat by rebates as people are agnostic about how electricity is generated just care about price.
3. I agree WA swing was unstainable which is why i expected Bullwinkle to be easiest gain. I think Pearce, Bullwinkle and Moore likely to be easiest gains for Libs in 2022. I dont think Hastie will be liked in Swan, Tangney or Curtin though.

IIRC Labor won the senate 2PP here. Hastie carries a strong personal vote.

Andrew Hastie has alluded to potentially resigning from the ministry or parliament if the Liberals keep their 2050 net-zero target.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-15/andrew-hastie-flags-resignation-or-sacking-over-liberal-net-zero/105776432

It looks like Andrew Hastie vying to be opposition leader. Given Hastie has had his share of controversies and for him descending from the Dutton camp you’d think that after the decisive loss that a Dutton protégé would not be a wise choice for the Liberals.

While Hastie improved his ttp his primary vote went backwards, its look like the One Nation preferences assisted him.

Spacefish the loss had nothing to do with Dutton. Well not entirely. Dutton was on track to potentially win govt. But when the campaigned kicked off everything went horribly wrong. It wasn’t Dutton who caused the loss. Although he may have been capttain of the ship it was hitting that iceberg that sunk them.

Also hasties primary increased 0.95%

If net zero is kept and Hastie does resign altogether, who would win a b-e?

I personally doubt he will resign from Parliament maybe just Front Bench. However, i think Hastie will never be able to lead the Liberals if they keep Net Zero while in hindsight Dutton was more Pragmatic.

Dutton unified the Liberal Party but also shrunk the party, according to someone on the election night coverage. The moderates were ok with him and there were no leadership doubts. Last term, only Julian Leeser resigned from the shadow ministry and it was over the Voice.

Dutton had a commitment to net zero. He used nuclear power as a unifier and it kept the net zero critics quieter. I think another reason is that he is from the National Right faction, same as Hastie and Taylor, and were ok with getting behind Dutton. They had commonalities in social issues like immigration.

Is net zero the issue that will split the Liberal party? A leadership challenge will come sooner or later, and I expect net zero to be the defining policy issue. Whoever loses should not get a place in shadow cabinet (and if they do, the situation will just repeat until they don’t). Rather than be backbenchers for a party they no longer believe in, the losers may prefer to leave.

If Hastie becomes leader and abandons net zero, moderates will move to the crossbench. Conversely, if his leadership push fails, I see him and other conservatives either moving to the Nats or forming their own party.

Good point Blast2095
I think Tim Wilson would be the MP that will be most Likely to move to Cross Bench followed by Julian Leeser.

I’m not sure if Mandurah (the largest locality and anchor for this district) could be comparable to the Gold Coast in Queensland. Both were considered as ‘regional’ centres in the past century but due to rapid urban growth both are now seen as part of the wider capital city metropolitan area/conglomerate.

The evolution of these areas as ‘commuter belt’ localities without the tree/sea change factor might explain why both areas are considered conservative leaning.

Blast2095
Makes more sense for the anti-net zero people to go to the Nats or to form a new Conservative Party, leaving the Liberal brand for moderates, and the teals, if they ever decided to join.

@ Pencil
See Groom threat i think that seat should be represented by the Nats

Hastie won’t be quitting parliament he’s a newcomer bad has leadership ambitions.

Mandurah is tiny compared to gold coast ud have to include the entire south west if you’d want to compare them,

Mandurah is the equivalent of toowoomba

Andrew Hastie was ok or was at least silent on the net zero issue at the 2022 and 2025 elections. I wonder what motivated him to become more vocal recently.

Is it because he opposes Ley’s leadership and sees this as a wedge issue?
Dutton supported net zero but at least they were factional allies and maybe Hastie was ok to go along.

If Angus Taylor had become the leader post-election, would Hastie be vocal against net zero? Taylor and Hastie are from the same National Right faction and Hastie voted for Taylor at the leadership spill. I think if Taylor had won, Hastie would’ve postponed his leadership ambitions. There may not be a spill for sometime as the National Right faction works out who their frontrunner is.

Don’t underestimate a politician’s ability to triangulate on any given issue. Who knows what Hastie’s feelings are on net-zero in his heart, though I suspect it is probably a lot closer to scrapping it than what Dutton offered. Smart politicians know when to go along to get along and when to draw red lines. Net Zero is broad enough that you can take a stance without appearing radical. That said, sometimes you reach a point when an issue becomes a fork in the road. There certainly is a trend in the world to pull back from Net Zero, led by the US, but the problem is that it is not a majority opinion (even in the US). And will be increasingly so as the generations change. The risk for the Liberal Party is that they have to come off as appearing to be practical, rational, and prudent on the issue rather than as cranks who don’t want to live in modern times. There is no such thing as “turning back the clock,” and you can’t unring a bell.” Take EVs, for example; there are numerous legitimate arguments surrounding mandates and similar policies because for many people who live in multi-family housing or travel long distances, recharging becomes a challenging proposition. However, like with most technology, it will evolve, and the infrastructure will eventually begin to meet the need. Most people who own EVs love them because they work well when the circumstances line up. Just as mobile phones have replaced mainly wired telephony, hybrid and EV technologies will continue to evolve.

I can see a leadership spill on Ley, but I tend to think that the arguments will be more on her ability to provide effective opposition rather than simply because she is “a moderate.” Hastie has more talent than many for communications, but you can’t talk your way out of a bad policy issue.

I have always thought that I could see the day after a cycle or two, the Nats on the crossbench. One of two things is going to happen in 2028: either Labor keeps its losses to a fair minimum (accepting the fact that 94 seats is practically untenable for any party) or the Liberals make it a real race and pull within shouting distance (or possibly even pull down Labor to a minority). If the former happens, then who knows what happens with the Liberals; the party could blow up and get reconstituted into whichever dominant faction emerges. The other side sits on the crossbench. If it is the latter, then the party will likely coalesce enough to present a united front (at least on face) to fight the 2031 election as a whole. At this point, it is too early to tell if that fork will develop. Hastie and Wilson are still reasonably young men, but they do not necessarily reflect the broad median of Millennials and Gen Z.

There has been a massive loss of primary votes for the major parties from younger voters. That trend will likely continue with preferences becoming an increasingly dominant factor in settling contests. We could go into the 2031 election with no idea who will win government until all preferences are settled. We could end up with a lot of Bradfield-type seats. Not in them being Liberal-Teal, but that some of the outcomes will be long and torturous. Ironically, Gisele Kapterian probably represents this concept, but alas, it looks like she will have to find a new avenue to break through.

I think hastie is using this as a wedge issue to depose sussan ley, I think he wants to topple her and will alter the parties position I don’t believe abandoning net zero but I don’t believe in going all in on ruining the economy just to make a difference thats about the size of a drop of water in the ocean.

Hastie has been advocating for some pretty economically interventionist policies recently, not unlike that of Dutton’s nuclear policy. Coupled with his net-zero stance and his strong hawkish rhetoric on China, we could be looking at a repeat of 2025 election or worse with him as leader which seems to be his end goal. Cannot see any of this playing well in any of the seats the Libs must win back.

New poll suggests support for the coalition key demographics are deserting the liberals there will be internal pressure on key and for Hastie to put his hand up