LIB 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Hastie, since 2015.
Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including Mandurah and most of the Peel region. Canning covers the entirety of the Mandurah, Murray, and Waroona council areas, as well as parts of the Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Rockingham council areas.
Redistribution
Canning’s northern boundary was changed, losing Bedfordale, Roleystone, Martin and Karragullen to the new seat of Bullwinkel, and also losing Darling Downs and Oakdale to Burt. Canning gained Karnup, Secret Harbour and Singleton from Brand. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 3.6% to 1.2%.
History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.
Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.
The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.
Gear was defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Ricky Johnston, who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Labor’s Jane Gerick in 1998.
Gerick was defeated narrowly by Liberal candidate Don Randall in 2001.
Randall held Canning for over a decade, winning re-election in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. His narrow margin in 2001 blew out to 59.5% in 2004, shrinking to 52.2% in 2010 before growing out to 61.8% in 2013.
Randall died in early 2015, and the ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. Hastie has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Canning is very marginal but Hastie’s position should be more solid in current circumstances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 41,294 | 43.8 | -5.3 | 41.6 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 30,897 | 32.8 | +5.2 | 35.0 |
| Jodie Moffat | Greens | 7,659 | 8.1 | +0.6 | 8.3 |
| Tammi Siwes | One Nation | 4,215 | 4.5 | -2.6 | 4.6 |
| James Waldeck | United Australia | 2,438 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 2.7 |
| Brad Bedford | Western Australia Party | 2,202 | 2.3 | -0.5 | 2.4 |
| Ashley Williams | Independent | 1,708 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.6 |
| Andriette Du Plessis | Australian Christians | 1,689 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| David Gardiner | Liberal Democrats | 749 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Anthony Gardyne | Federation Party | 628 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Judith Congrene | Informed Medical Options | 785 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 6,558 | 6.5 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 50,513 | 53.6 | -8.0 | 51.2 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 43,751 | 46.4 | +8.0 | 48.8 |
Booths are split into four areas. About half of the seat’s population is in the Mandurah council area, and this area has been split into Mandurah North and Mandurah South, along the river. The remainder of the seat was split into north and south, with Murray and Waroona council areas in the south, and Rockingham and Serpentine-Jarrahdale council areas in the north.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Mandurah South (53%) and the south (53.5%) while Labor won 52.2% in Mandurah North and 57.1% in the remaining north. The Liberal Party won in part because they won the pre-poll and other votes, which made up almost two thirds of the total vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mandurah North | 10.6 | 47.8 | 9,323 | 10.6 |
| North | 12.6 | 42.9 | 8,362 | 9.5 |
| Mandurah South | 9.9 | 53.0 | 6,236 | 7.1 |
| South | 6.9 | 53.5 | 5,910 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 6.6 | 52.6 | 41,634 | 47.3 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 52.4 | 16,559 | 18.8 |
Election results in Canning at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
There’s a difference between ‘running dead’ and ‘not targeting’. They were absolutely not running dead here. You don’t think they’d have wanted to unseat Hastie?
Andrew Hastie has stated that he doesn’t plan to run for the Liberal leadership, per the ABC.
@James I don’t think he was leadership material anyway for the new modern Liberal Party.
NP, he’s going to be leader within the next ten years.
Some trivia: I noticed Andrew Hastie has had the donkey vote twice in a row here, 2022 and 2025. What an odd coincidence.
Np he will challenge and likely beat sussan ley within 12 months of july 1 when leys numbers take a hit. also there were mps on the anyone but Taylor ticket so that helped her beat him but if Hastie will challenge her by the end of the 2026 financial year
Now Andrew Hastie is attacking Basil Zempilas for not supporting and adopting the WA Federal Liberals proposed culture wars in opposing the use Indigenous Flag, Welcome to Country and Net Zero. I wonder how it would end up.
@Marh probably voters will continue to back the WA Liberals but not their federal counterparts. After all the Coalition were the ones to introduce net zero.
@ Marh/Nether Portal
This is suprising. I would have thought if Andrew Hastie wanted to PM someday it is best he stays quiet rather than make enemies which he is currently doing.
1. If the WA Liberals abandon net Zero then they stand to loose Churchlands, Cottlesloe and Nedlands to teals
2. They may pick up Pilbara, Collie Preston with an anti-climate stance but 80% of WA population lives in Perth and it is the most centralised state so there is just not enough regional seats to pick up to form government without Perth seats
3. I dont think WA Liberals can pick up Labor hearland seats like Rockingham, Kwinanana etc to compensate for loss of affluent seats/
Agree Nimalan, the WA Liberals are in the same situation as their Victorian counterparts in the fact that they failed to make much headway in both their traditional inner suburban grounds as well as the swing type outer suburban seats. They only gained the three most marginal Labor seats in the inner suburbs (all within the traditional federal seat of Curtin) and didn’t win any covered by either Swan or Tangney, which probably explains why federal Labor managed to achieve comfortable swings in both seats.
To force Labor into minority, the WA Liberals need to win back the remaining regional seats (Bunbury, Collie Preston and Pilbara), all outer suburban swing seats (Kingsley, Joondalup, Darling Range, Swan Hills and Dawesville) and then most of the inner-city seats which they lost in 2021. To achieve this, they need to stay low on all the controversial social aspects, and Basil is probably helping by avoiding these issues.
even my best estimates put the wa libs 1-2 seats short in 2029. I can see the libs/nats winning Pilbara, Dawesville, Kalgoorlie, South Perth, Bateman, Kingsley, Forrestfield, Riverton, Collie-Preston, Scarborough, Darling Range, Joondalup, Bunbury and Swan Hills. that gets them to 27 seats. Independents/Teals would possible be able to win Fremantle, Thornlie and Bassandean and surely Bibra Lake if on of them was able to get over the Greens.
@ Yoh An
A few points
1. I agree the Libs can pick up remaining Regional seats (Kalgoorlie, Bunbury, Collie Preston, Pilbara) that is 4 in total
2. I would not classify Dawesville as Outer Surburban it is more Provincial. In any case it is a generally a safe Liberal seat
3. Kingsley/Joondalop/Swan Hills are Outer Suburban swing seats i think people are climate agnostic in such seats rather than anti-climate action and i think Labor has figured out than they can just give people electricity rebates when there is concern about higher energy bills. Albo did that effectively. ALso in these mortgage belt seats people are so focused on bread and butter issues they dont have time to worry about Welcome to Country etc and Flags.
4. Focusing on culture wars will make Libs more unelectable in affluent tealish seats like South Perth, Riverton, Scarbrough and Bicton
@nimalan i think the Nats would be better placed to win Kalgoorlie and Pilbara given the Lib->Nat preference rate is higher and Nats do ten to draw some votes from Labor who wouldnt otherwise vote for Libs
@ Darth Vader
I agree those two seats are better represeneted by the Nats. I think Collie-Preston will eventually be lost by Labor even if both parties are pro-climate it will become like Lithgow/La Trobe valley as Coal declines
i reckon Collie is gonna be lost in 2029. it suffered a 19% TPP swing and and 21% (1/3 of the vote) this year. the margin is only 4.3%. there was only 1600 votes seperating Libs and Nats for 2nd place. which is effectively 800 votes deciding that. and only 1200 votes deciding the seat. theres also the redistribution to take into account. my plan is as it was last time. reunite Australind into a single seat. this will have 1 of 2 otcomes depending on the numbers in Murray-Wellington. either ts all in Murray-Wellington which hurts labor as it would then lose the currently pro labor booths in exchange for booths in either Vasse(less likely), Roe or Warren-Blackwood. or my preferred plan of combining the shires of Harvery, Collie and Dardunup. Australin swun away from Lbor this ear and theres no reason to believe that wont continut. theres also the Lib proposal of moving Collie into Roe and it does shares a federal division so that not too hard too believe it wont eventully happen.
Basil Zempilas is from Churchlands – a very teal-ish and wealthy state electorate within Curtin. His margin is also quite slim. It is at least within his own electoral interests to have a climate policy.
Many pro-net zero Liberals have a political dilemma. Critics of net zero should understand the political risks that their pro-net zero colleagues may face especially in teal-ish or urban electorates.
It’s 4 years away anyway people will vote on the most prevalent issue of the day of the poll