LIB 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Hastie, since 2015.
Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including Mandurah and most of the Peel region. Canning covers the entirety of the Mandurah, Murray, and Waroona council areas, as well as parts of the Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Rockingham council areas.
Redistribution
Canning’s northern boundary was changed, losing Bedfordale, Roleystone, Martin and Karragullen to the new seat of Bullwinkel, and also losing Darling Downs and Oakdale to Burt. Canning gained Karnup, Secret Harbour and Singleton from Brand. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 3.6% to 1.2%.
History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.
Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.
The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.
Gear was defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Ricky Johnston, who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Labor’s Jane Gerick in 1998.
Gerick was defeated narrowly by Liberal candidate Don Randall in 2001.
Randall held Canning for over a decade, winning re-election in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. His narrow margin in 2001 blew out to 59.5% in 2004, shrinking to 52.2% in 2010 before growing out to 61.8% in 2013.
Randall died in early 2015, and the ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. Hastie has been re-elected three times.
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal)
- Fernando Bove (One Nation)
- Jordan Cahill (Greens)
- John Carey (Citizens Party)
- Paul Gullan (Legalise Cannabis)
- Jarrad Goold (Labor)
Assessment
Canning is very marginal but Hastie’s position should be more solid in current circumstances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 41,294 | 43.8 | -5.3 | 41.6 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 30,897 | 32.8 | +5.2 | 35.0 |
| Jodie Moffat | Greens | 7,659 | 8.1 | +0.6 | 8.3 |
| Tammi Siwes | One Nation | 4,215 | 4.5 | -2.6 | 4.6 |
| James Waldeck | United Australia | 2,438 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 2.7 |
| Brad Bedford | Western Australia Party | 2,202 | 2.3 | -0.5 | 2.4 |
| Ashley Williams | Independent | 1,708 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.6 |
| Andriette Du Plessis | Australian Christians | 1,689 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| David Gardiner | Liberal Democrats | 749 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Anthony Gardyne | Federation Party | 628 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Judith Congrene | Informed Medical Options | 785 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 6,558 | 6.5 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 50,513 | 53.6 | -8.0 | 51.2 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 43,751 | 46.4 | +8.0 | 48.8 |
Booths are split into four areas. About half of the seat’s population is in the Mandurah council area, and this area has been split into Mandurah North and Mandurah South, along the river. The remainder of the seat was split into north and south, with Murray and Waroona council areas in the south, and Rockingham and Serpentine-Jarrahdale council areas in the north.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Mandurah South (53%) and the south (53.5%) while Labor won 52.2% in Mandurah North and 57.1% in the remaining north. The Liberal Party won in part because they won the pre-poll and other votes, which made up almost two thirds of the total vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mandurah North | 10.6 | 47.8 | 9,323 | 10.6 |
| North | 12.6 | 42.9 | 8,362 | 9.5 |
| Mandurah South | 9.9 | 53.0 | 6,236 | 7.1 |
| South | 6.9 | 53.5 | 5,910 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 6.6 | 52.6 | 41,634 | 47.3 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 52.4 | 16,559 | 18.8 |
Election results in Canning at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Dan, but given some favourable or below average swings in outer suburban areas (examples like Pearce and Bullwinkle for WA, Hume in NSW) then Hastie as Opposition Leader could recover some seats, and Labor will drop below 90.
But I do agree that he does need to moderate his image – if he does so and Labor makes some foolish moves later in the term, then he could be like Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader and force Labor into minority for 2028.
@ Yoh An
Bullinwinkle and Pearce are not Red Wall seats as i keep mentioning and Hume is a safe Coalition seat i dont think Labor gives a damn about the seat these days. The 2022 WA statewide result was unstainable so it is natural some of them will swing back especially Pearce and Bullwinkle largely Outer Suburban/Peri-Urban and White. It is a much harder task to force Labor into minority in 2028 than it was in 2010 simply because Labor’s majority is now much bigger than anytime in the post-war period. It is not impossible Campbell Newman lost his majority in one term. There are number of other seats that Hastie could loose including Goldstein, Berowra, La Trobe and Mitchell.
There was some other reasons why Labor lost it is majority in 2010
*Backlog of issues (Boat people, Mining Tax)
*Leadership challenge and leaks during the campaign
*Julia Gillard running a shot gun campaign
*Having an unfavourable senate in 2007-2010 blocked CPRS
* Unpopular state goverments in NT, NSW and QLD
* Mining Tax probably caused loss of Hasluck and failure to pick up other WA seats
I may be a bit biased in saying this because of my own politics, but all this talk about Hastie becoming leader (and all the policy positions and rhetoric that would likely result from that, along with how Ley’s deposition would be perceived) just sounds like the Liberals are going, “Well, we’re doing pretty terrible, so let’s do even worse!”
@ Nicholas
Rightly or wrongly many feel Dutton was not right wing enough those on the right flank and said he was Labor Lite. That is not my view. Sky After Dark feel Dutton should have dropped Net Zero and focused more on Trans issues, Welcome to Country etc. They probably dont care about holding Goldstein but would love to win a Red Wall seat. It seems Hatsie video about car manufacturing was targetted at Spence, Calwell etc. It is ironic that most car manufacturers left Australia at a time when our energy was entirely Fossil Fuels.
@nicholas they said the same thing when Turnbull was dragging the party down in 2008 that Abbott was unelectable. That he’d lose unlosable seats. Then he almost and really did bring down a first term government because it wasn’t for the two turncoat nats abbot would have been pm in 2010. They said the same thing about Dutton that he was unelectable but until the campaign started he looked like he could bring down another first term labor govt. Obviously things didn’t go his way due to poor campaigning among other things stifled that. Hastie may not look like the answer but ley certainly isn’t. If Hastie is able to unite the party and give them hope and project confidence to the electorart e he can certainly force labor to a minority. And don’t forget the inds are now a threat to labor. Also the greens have hopes in seats like Fraser and wills which they probably would have won if the libs didn’t drive votes to labor. If people think Hastie is unelectable then he can only go up from there. If tim Wilson can win goldstein with the libs performing badly nationally he can certainly win it when they are on the front foot with their a game. People trade tim Wilson for Zoe Daniel and despite the bad images of Dutton and the libs they said no thx we want Wilson back.
It is not hard to see Labor dip below 90 at the next election simply as a reversion to the mean. Any competent Liberal Opposition leader should be able to manage at least a 10-15 seat pickup, barring any significant adverse event for Labor. That said, the real problem lies in securing the second set of seats to reach a majority. Hastie running a full repeal of the net zero campaign is going to limit his upside severely. Perhaps a slight walkback to appease backbenchers, but not making it the centerpiece of his campaign, is about the only way you are going to thread the needle there. Labor lately seems content to let left-wing voters slip to the Greens and elsewhere since they will almost certainly come back on preferences. Younger voters are already slipping substantially from the majors on primaries but backing mostly Labor on preferences. Until that changes, nothing will.
Hastie isn’t going to (at least he should not) challenge Ley this year unless she does something terrible. The time between elections and the nastiness of a challenge coming so soon would invite bad press and, rightly or wrongly, probably create an unnecessary distraction on gender. Others may disagree, but I do think foreign policy will play a larger role than usual as we work towards 2028. Tariffs, China, Russia, India, Israel, usually a government could deal with these things in the background, but with Trump in Washington, it is BS 24-7. Not necessarily a dominant role, mind you, but I can’t imagine if Taylor/Price won and we had all of this “Make Australia Great Again” stuff floating around.
@ John
If October 7th never happened I doubt Tim Wilson would have won back Goldstein and abandoning Net Zero may lead to about a 1% swing to Teals which would top the seat. I think he wil keep Jewish voters but loose Secular Anglo Voters to teals.
Nimalan well it happen. If Trump didn’t play a role with his tariffs and Dutton and the libs didn’t trip over themselves. Then the libs would have probly won if not forced labor into deep. minority.
A challenge to ley is all but inevitable with the disastrous polling they cannot maintain this course. Whether or not it will be Hastie. In regards to Jacinta price while I reckon she would be in the shadow cabinet I don’t think she’s ready for the leadership role. Obviously she will need to backtrack on her comments about Indian Australians andoffer some sort of apology too. While offending them wasn’t her intention they obviously did. The libs also need to regain Chinese voters. They need to differentiate between Chinese people and the Chinese dictatorship. Sucking up to China isn’t the solution because it makes them seem weak. Albo kisses their ass because he wants the votes. The same way they do it for Muslims. In regards to the greens preferences leaking to the left will a result in them losing some of those inner city seats like Fraser and wills. Cooper will be safe while ged Kearney is there. In 2022 the libs lost because of wa in 2025 they basically gave noone any reason to vote for them which is why they got wiped out. Targeting those outer suburban seats was a good strategy they just failed. In regards to tim Wilson he would be best placed to be Hastie deputy as it would give him more prominence.
Yeah, would agree with you Nimalan in that the situation leading into 2028 will be different than 2010. Tony Abbott had the advantage of Labor infighting between Rudd and Gillard that overshadowed much of the government’s messaging, whilst Albanese is leading a united team.
Had October 7 not happened the results in the two Victoria teal seats could have been reversed. Zoe Daniel was doing all the good local MP stuff that could have seen her returned, and in Kooyong, the Liberals put more effort into the Jewish community than the Chinese community, only for the Liberals to go backwards in booths with high Chinese populations. This is part of the reason why I have doubts about Frydenberg’s ability to win the seat back.
The problem with Andrew Hastie’s anti-net zero campaign is it’s not attacking the Government’s weak spots and instead makes the issue about the Liberal Party. Looking at Andrew Hastie’s video on car manufacturing looked so 1980s, not 2025, and I get he is trying to appeal to the party’s boomer base, but Australia has moved on.
Pencil is correct. October 7 made realignemnt harder. Jewish voters tend to be much better educated than average i think if October 7th had not happpened then i think Dutton may have lost votes among Jews. Macnamara could have become an ALP V GRN seat like Griffith. By contrast, it may have been the case that Libs would make more an effort with Muslim voters to see if they can join any realignment. There was a perception that geopolitics was shifting from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. Some Liberal rank and file members i have spoken to believe that Moira Deeming for example appeas to Muslims. The question can Hastie appeal to win seats that once had car manufacturing like Spence and Calwell. We also dont know what the economic situation will be in 2028. I think Hastie has revealed his cards too early and not kept it close to his chest which is what i would have done if I was him
Hastie is playing his cards to win over the base and support within the party. He will probably soften his image once he’s in charge
The strategy in getting some Muslims to vote for the Liberal Party because of their Social Conservativism and being less hostile to them than in the past might had somewhat worked until October 7 undid everything.
Andrew Hastie has lashed out at fellow Liberals calling them Cowards and Muppets after the Car video emerged after criticism. I think Hastie is hoping to wedge Labor working class voters by promising manufacturing but i am not sure if dumping Net Zero will be enough to bring it back. It will require subdidies or tarrifs as well but i am not sure if that will be well recieved the Nationals will be furious if free trade deals are ripped up as Australia is an agricultural exporter. It was actually Tony Abbott who killed the car industry in Australia and refused to offer subdies. Tony Abbott in government was actually no DLP style figure as he was economically right wing.
Let’s look at the facts here regarding the car video based on an ABC News article about it:
For those complaining about how much the video cost: parliamentary salaries aren’t “modest” lol. They each earn over $200,000 a year. Recording a video of yourself standing next to a car with some good editing doesn’t cost much. I could make that exact video myself possibly even better.
As for the video itself, some points:
* Yes, it’s hypocritical that we still send coal and gas to China and India.
* Yes, making cars here again would be good. But will Australians buy them? Japanese cars are so popular here, (since Japan isn’t too far compared to Europe or the US) so affordable and so good that I feel like they’ll go broke again. Plus…
* We should be fazing out coal and gas, not using more of it.
Besides the US thanks to the Orange, virtually every other developed country including Australia has a renewables target. Canada, the EU, New Zealand, the UK and even Japan all have emissions reductions targets.
Hastie would push the Libs to the economic left even more so than Labor, essentially turning the Libs into the DLP. Problem is then the Libs will then get DLP results.
@ Nether Portal
Great points. Just to add to them
1. Only people who opposed to Fossil Fuel exports are the Greens. Labor party supports Coal/Gas exports for as long as there is market. If Australia stopped exporting it other countries can buy from Putin’s Russia instead.
2.Even in the US, climate action is still being taken albeit by state and local governments. Under Trump’s last presidency, Coal fired power stations closed at at record rate and emissions fell. Especially if there is more gas it competes with Coal.
We have some of the biggest coal and gas reserves in the world we should be exploiting them to create cheap reliable energy.
Nimalan. Agree that it was under Abbott that the car industry ‘went to live on a farm’ but it was on life support for years. It had to export to survive – fine when the AUD was 60 cents US but not when it was 1:10 or 1:15 during the Gillard government after the GFC. Ford didn’t invest and ended up closing and GM weren’t interested after they went into Chapter 11. Toyota could not survive by itself. The level of subsidies was unsustainable. Somebody should ask Wayne Swan why a high dollar was a good thing. Fiscal policy was never his strong point and kept interest rates and the dollar high. Inflation was low as there was a flood of cheap imports replacing locally made. Mineral exports – high commodity prices provided a cushion. Hence the low productivity and low wage growth during the Liberal years.
Also, if I recall, there was no gaurantee that GM wouldn’t take the money and run.
Getting back to Canning – what are Andrew Hastie’s economic views – his focus as far as I can see has always been on defence, security and foreign affairs. Or is he like Angus Taylor – and is an economic policy void?
Hastie’s car manufacturing video was aimed at drumming up opposition to net zero. Ironically, the car manufacturing closed before net zero was adopted and when it was reliant on fossil fuels. It was also indirectly an attack on his own party and I can see why it might’ve agitated people.
I think it’s also aimed at those seeking nostalgia. An Australian car manufacturing industry is difficult to revive. We can’t compete with Japan or South Korea’s car manufacturing as they have economies of scale and supply chain advantages. They also have larger domestic markets and nearby export markets.
Now Hastie has come out to called migrants “Strangers in our own home”, with Sky News and Jacinta Price all calling for him to be leader. Seems like the Libs have learnt absolutely nothing from the 2022 and 2025 elections.
Car manufacturing is dead. It died 10 years ago and it’s not coming back. It’s that way in every country in the world. We are going to be down to a handful of major players building “world cars” that is the way it is going. Net Zero didn’t kill it although I suppose there is a small possibility that a business proposition can be made to make specialty electric vehicles somewhere and/or related products. Labor-intensive capital industries have evolved. This isn’t the 1950s where there are high paying moderate skill task work jobs for guys who barely fell out of school. We have to adjust and concentrate on giving those people opportunities for the future not complaining about the past. People <40 don't want to hear about what happened two generations ago.
Export the hell out of the natural resources. The Greens complain but such is life we can use the money for domestic renewable initiative.
The biggest problem I see with the Liberal approach is that it's almost an all-or-nothing choice. The public is not just going to see saw between governments and turn stuff on and off like a switch. A more measured approach with defined goals is warranted. The throwing the baby out with the bathwater approach is what is going on in the US and it is going to cost them dearly down the road.
Hastie going hard left on economic policy and hard right on social policy is like the worst of both. He is not going to attract left wing economic voters because those people will be turned off by culture wars and there are not enough DLP type voters to move the needle. Those voters are an important (as all voters are) but declining subset of the voter pool they should not be ignored but you are not going to base national economic policy around them.
Dan, I suspect the Liberals and Coalition are still listening to the strongest/loudest voices in their own echo chamber/s that egg them on to continue with the hardcore, MAGA style rhetoric which will play poorly in the demographic groups they need to win back (young voters, women and CALD minorities).
Simply winning the support of blue collar, ethnically white voters is nowhere near enough to get a majority in a diverse country like Australia.
An economically populist turn by the liberal party would not go down well with the IPA types such as James Paterson and Tim Wilson. Not sure if it would go down that well with the National Party either unless they want to back to McEwenism.
I’m not sure why everyone is acting like the liberal party is going further to the right. NSW the moderates are in control, the moderate grouping just got a clean sweep for executive positions in Victoria. Sussan Ley is in the moderate/Centre right grouping. Just because Andrew Hastie and Jacinta Price are the loudest doesn’t mean they have the numbers. If Andrew did, he would’ve run for leader.
@ Redistributed
I was not attacking Abbott and your points are valid including High Australian Dollar post GFC. Reviving the Car industry would probably take a lot more than scrapping climate policy. Mitsubishi left in 2004 during the Howard years. It would require high subsidies/Tarrifs. I do agree that Hastie maybe agnostic on economic policy which may annoy people like James Paterson. I dont think the Car video would have had any impact in a classic marginal seat like Eden-Monaro, Petrie, Forde, Robertson, Dobell, Leichardt, Basss and Braddon. The seats that were once known for Car manufacturing are Kingston, Gellibrand (Altona-Toyota), Spence and Calwell i dont think any of them are winnable by Hastie and Labor will seek to put holes in his argument including bringing up Abbott
@Menziesfanboy, suspect you are right about Hastie and Price not having the numbers inside the party room and that’s why they are making so much noise, and it’s also possible, Hastie is taking on the role of head kicker, which every opposition needs.
Pencil/Menzies fan boy, fair point if Hastie is just serving a role as an ‘attack dog’ figure. Still, even sniping from the sidelines as what Tony Abbott did following his loss to Malcolm Turnbull in the earlier leadership spill when the Coalition were in office can lead to instability and will not help Sussan Ley as she tries to advance arguments against the Labor government.
@Yoh An, If Hastie is playing the attack dog, his picking the wrong issues. Saying people are strangers in their own home isn’t targetting the voters the Liberal Party really needs, there is some merit in wanting manufacturing, however the Liberal Party has embraced free trade since Howard won his war with Peacock.
the thing that killed the car industry was high wages and high power prices, removal of tarrifs on overseas cars entering our mrket plus low consuumer demad versus the high number of cars entering the market causing the cost of manufacturing cars in this country to make us hilariously noncompetitive when compared to overseas competitirs.
There’s also a group of conservatives (eg James Paterson, Simon Kennedy) who voted for Angus Taylor who I would consider pragmatic conservative rather than religious conservative like Hastie, Antic, etc. They would back in someone like Taylor with good economic credentials but not someone who is basically an economist socialist like Hastie.
Menzies fan boy, Angus Taylor does seem a lot like Tony Abbott in that he is from the right faction but appears to tone down the more controversial social views. Maybe he would be a decent figure as Opposition Leader against Albanese, and the Coalition would present more of a united front (similar to when they were in opposition under Rudd and Gillard).
Then again, under Dutton who was also a similar figure to Abbott and Taylor the Coalition presented as a united team but still couldn’t cut through to the right demographic groups.
If the Liberal Party becomes fiscally left-wing and socially conservative, I will put them below both the likes of One Nation and the likes of the Socialist Alliance at the next election.
What seats would they vying for with such a strategy? And how many seats would they be ceding to never win back?
Nicholas, if the Liberal Party and Coalition embrace and go full on MAGA/Trumpism I reckon they will probably say goodbye to all Northern Sydney seats (losing Berowra and Mitchell whilst failing to recover any teal held ones).
Andrew Hasties acension will probably happen remember Susan Ley won her ballt 29-25. althugh Gisele Kaspetarian waasnt eligible now since she did not infact win her seat. and both Hollie Hughes and Linda Reynolds are no longer in parliament. so that means the vote would have been 26-25 although David Fawcett is also no longer in parliament and im unsre who he voted for also Terry Young did not vote due to being concerned with his seat count in Longman. you take into account those who were voting against Angus Taylor and i think Hastie would probably win a vote against Ley.
I was shocked/surprised to see both Berowra and Mitchell now become marginal seats following Albanese’s 2025 landslide win. Even under Kevin Rudd’s ‘mini landslide’ 2007 victory, Mitchell remained a safe seat and Berowra was also fairly secure with a 2PP margin of 8-9%.
@ Nicholas
I think that stategy would involve winning deep Red seats Like Spence, Scullin, Rankin, Brand, Calwell etc which i am not sure will happen. I think margins are too big in those seats. I agree Berowra, Mitchell, Goldstein and even La Trobe could be lost with that strategy. I think Cook will still be safe unlike Mitchell. I guess if you persue a realignment strategy this is the end result.
i think the libs have bottomed out in 2025 everything was up against them. they should recover from this and regain the ground. I wouldnt rule out Brand if Hastie was leader in a couple terms
Agree Nimalan, I think Australia is different from the US in that the blue collar, manufacturing heavy seats like Spence, Calwell, Scullin etc. consist of either unionised workers and/or CALD minority voters who are still strongly supportive of Labor.
Unlike the US Midwest and its rust belt towns where manufacturing workers are not typically unionised and thus more easily persuaded by the Trumpism/social conservatism style campaign run by the Republican Party.
Introducing Tariffs for Australia would be very unpopular at this point of time with Trump Tariffs and Australianconsumption of products having a large percentage content being foreign made.
The narrative leading up to 2025 was that the Liberals surely would make a recovery of some sort given the scale of their 2022 loss. What can make us so sure that they’ve truly “bottomed out” this time?
Agree Yon An
Furthemore we do not elect via statewide level. Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc have conservative rural areas so Trump only needed to make some inroads into unionised workers not win a majority of them because he kept the rural vote intact while seats Spence, Calwell, Scullin, Brand have no rural areas and pretty much no strong Liberal booths. There maybe a few booths which are 50-50 now but that is it.
John, Brand is getting stronger for Labor over time as it urbanises and keeps shrinking due to population growth. Unless Hastie can get 60% TPP Statewide Brand will not be in Danger. It is a much stronger seat in terms of demographics/boundaries than when Kim Beazley was leader.
Nicholas, I think if the Coalition do go down the route of the DLP/Trump then they have pretty much reached a ‘floor’ of some sorts. There are only a handful of extra seats that Labor can win back, and they will also lose maybe a half dozen or so in the process (some LNP gains that are likely include Blair, Paterson, Werriwa, Pearce, Bullwinkle, Bass, Braddon and possibly Lyons)
@nimalan hasties seat of canning incorporated parts of Brand reducing his margin to a mere 1.2% yet he managed to increase his margin and is now sitting on a safe seat. if he was bale to win over parts of brand what makes you think he cant win the rest of it?
Agree John, Madeleine King also had a small swing both in primary vote and 2PP against her. I believe the Rockingham area is probably like Northern Adelaide being considered as majority white with fewer CALD minorities. The Coalition could win over these voters, but they may be more attracted to the fringe parties like One Nation.
@ Yon An
Labor should find a new MP for Werriwa i dont expect Nationalism will work in Werriwa given it is a CALD area. It is a religious area i agree. I think Werriwa is under performing due to Ann Stanley contrast with Macarthur which is even further out from the city and Labor is doing very well due to an excellent MP in Mike Freelander.
I am now skeptical about Tasmania post may 2025. 3 Northern Tasmanian seats despite being white working class areas had huge swings to Labor. Also Tasmania has already reached 100% Renewable energy and Net Zero so unless there is a return to Forestry wars i dont see what Hastie can offer them. Note Tasmania is very irreligious so i dont think people care about Trans issues etc. 50% of Braddon has no religion