LIB 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Hastie, since 2015.
Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including Mandurah and most of the Peel region. Canning covers the entirety of the Mandurah, Murray, and Waroona council areas, as well as parts of the Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Rockingham council areas.
Redistribution
Canning’s northern boundary was changed, losing Bedfordale, Roleystone, Martin and Karragullen to the new seat of Bullwinkel, and also losing Darling Downs and Oakdale to Burt. Canning gained Karnup, Secret Harbour and Singleton from Brand. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 3.6% to 1.2%.
History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.
Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.
The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.
Gear was defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Ricky Johnston, who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Labor’s Jane Gerick in 1998.
Gerick was defeated narrowly by Liberal candidate Don Randall in 2001.
Randall held Canning for over a decade, winning re-election in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. His narrow margin in 2001 blew out to 59.5% in 2004, shrinking to 52.2% in 2010 before growing out to 61.8% in 2013.
Randall died in early 2015, and the ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. Hastie has been re-elected three times.
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal)
- Fernando Bove (One Nation)
- Jordan Cahill (Greens)
- John Carey (Citizens Party)
- Paul Gullan (Legalise Cannabis)
- Jarrad Goold (Labor)
Assessment
Canning is very marginal but Hastie’s position should be more solid in current circumstances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 41,294 | 43.8 | -5.3 | 41.6 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 30,897 | 32.8 | +5.2 | 35.0 |
| Jodie Moffat | Greens | 7,659 | 8.1 | +0.6 | 8.3 |
| Tammi Siwes | One Nation | 4,215 | 4.5 | -2.6 | 4.6 |
| James Waldeck | United Australia | 2,438 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 2.7 |
| Brad Bedford | Western Australia Party | 2,202 | 2.3 | -0.5 | 2.4 |
| Ashley Williams | Independent | 1,708 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.6 |
| Andriette Du Plessis | Australian Christians | 1,689 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| David Gardiner | Liberal Democrats | 749 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Anthony Gardyne | Federation Party | 628 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Judith Congrene | Informed Medical Options | 785 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 6,558 | 6.5 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 50,513 | 53.6 | -8.0 | 51.2 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 43,751 | 46.4 | +8.0 | 48.8 |
Booths are split into four areas. About half of the seat’s population is in the Mandurah council area, and this area has been split into Mandurah North and Mandurah South, along the river. The remainder of the seat was split into north and south, with Murray and Waroona council areas in the south, and Rockingham and Serpentine-Jarrahdale council areas in the north.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Mandurah South (53%) and the south (53.5%) while Labor won 52.2% in Mandurah North and 57.1% in the remaining north. The Liberal Party won in part because they won the pre-poll and other votes, which made up almost two thirds of the total vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mandurah North | 10.6 | 47.8 | 9,323 | 10.6 |
| North | 12.6 | 42.9 | 8,362 | 9.5 |
| Mandurah South | 9.9 | 53.0 | 6,236 | 7.1 |
| South | 6.9 | 53.5 | 5,910 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 6.6 | 52.6 | 41,634 | 47.3 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 52.4 | 16,559 | 18.8 |
Election results in Canning at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Fair point Nimalan, I was also surprised by the huge swing to Labor in Tasmania given the popularity of the state Liberals. Then again, I believe the Tasmanian state Liberal party branch is more moderate like the NSW Coalition and its leaders such as Peter Gutwein and Jeremy Rockliff are also seen to be pragmatic in nature, focusing on infrastructure/service delivery and eschewing any talk/discussion about fringe social issues.
@nicholas and all the signs pointed to the fact they would nad they were even looking like they could topple a first term govt. then the campaign started, trump declared war on the world with his tariffs and albo and labor brought out the scare campaign along with the blank chequbook. the libs campaign was a shocker and they effectively were the hare in the hare and the tortoise. remember its not just australia this happened trump was on the ballot in canada too and the conservatives lost what looked like an unlosable election.
John, if using the hare and tortoise analogy that shows the Coalition shouldn’t be too cocky and assume the Australian public are ‘fed up’ of Labor. They should go steady and just point out some of Labor’s failings one at a time rather than go all out at once.
@yoh an it wasnt just tasmania remember there is a popular state govt in qld too but the liberals went backwards there as well. the libs lost a variety of seats in cluding peter duttons own seat. the libs would of been in a good position to make serious inroads in seats like rankin and lilly and possibly set them up for a good 2028. but everything went wrong all over the country. but still despite this they made inroads in several labor seats against the grain.
in may hastie got like a 12% swing in the parts of rockingham transferred from Brand
Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie are not in the same faction. I think it’s important to remember that a vote for Taylor isn’t automatically a vote for Hastie. Which is probably why Sussan is safe for now. Also despite what some MP’s and commentators want. 90% of Liberal Party membership is still in teal seats and those members want those seats back. Kooyong has around half of the entire membership for the Victorian branch. There is no way those members accept abandoning their own seats.
still Taylors factional dealings probly cost the liberal party in part the election. he probly screwed over a few of the people who voted for Ley and thats why they voted for her not him. also i predicted he would lose because of that. i as a member did not want either person for leader. But im a strong supporter for Andrew Hastie. but he would need someone like Tim Wilson as a deputy to moderate the views on the party by the wider public.
My crystal ball.shows a Hastie Chaimers contest some time in the future.
Both are youngish
Mick that future could be as soon as 2028
Agree Darth, that could be the case if Albanese suffers a personal scandal or health scare and is forced to step down as leader and/or MP. However, that possibility is unlikely at the moment with Albo in good health and maintaining reasonable control over the government’s agenda and party room.
I would think Albanese would stay until 2030, giving him 8 years in the top job, and letting a new leader lead the Labor Party into the new decade and 2031 election.
Albo isn’t exactly a spring chicken. If the last election had of gone the way it was looking up until the campaign started he’s already be gone. Chalmers isn’t guaranteed the leadership either. The labor party us elected by both the membership and the rank and file voters. While I’m not sure whos who especially with the new additions most got there gigs from being of the same faction as Albo so I’d say the left would still have the numbers in the party room and I’m pretty sure the left have the numbers among rank and file voters. I also know the r e are other members with leadership aspirations Ed Husic Marles, Burke, Clare to name the ones I know of
The word ‘if’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
Albo only has to make it to March 2027 to become the second-longest serving Labor PM in history.
And isn’t that just a little sad
Sad for whom?
A lot of rose-tinted glasses about the high tide of Liberal polling last term. It’s worth remembering that a month of polls showing 51-49 Coalition 2PP did not mean they were on track to win the election. Oppositions very commonly take the lead mid-term and governments will in turn get a swing back towards them by the time of the election. That’s happened in basically every term of government in the last 30 years. The times when there was a change of government involved huge mid-term or pre-campaign opposition leads that the bump for the gov during the campaign was unable to overturn (07, 13, 22).
Add a if you look at the individual seat polling the libs were on track to competitive or even win a whole bunch of Labor seats plus win back seats like kooyong Ryan and Curtin as well as narrowly retain bradfield, they ended up going backwards in most of those seats as well the Labor seats they were predicted to win or come close. Then ended up losing a whole host of seats. And this coincided which a reverse in the polling around about the time the election was called and the campaign begun. Of course there were external factors like trump that played a part. Not only were the liberals not competitive in the campaign the lost…. badly. And went back on the 2pp.
@Adda, just as it’s possible the Liberal Party will win a poll sometime next year or 2027, however their chances of winning the next election are remote.
My general rule of thumb is that any opposition that isn’t polling at least 54-46 at some point during the term is going to struggle to win an election.
The only poll that counts, as they say, is the one on election day…
Albo will probably fight the 2028 election. I see no reason why not. The minefields are mainly on the Liberal side at this point. I wouldn’t expect him to fight the 2031 election; it’s best to pass the torch when you are still in the majority. That said, we do not know how inflation and the global economy will unfold over the next three years while Trump is bloviating. I would say that the next election will most likely not be fought over social and cultural issues. It is not a winning issue overall for the Liberals, and given the state of global affairs, voters will be focused on economic issues.
Chalmers is Labor Right, and he could replace Albo if the economy performs well in 2030 and Labor receives credit for it. A Hastie Chalmers contest in 2031 would be interesting, especially if Hastie tries to go left on economic issues. I am not sure Hastie would be able to get away with that, though, since the inherent base of the Liberal party is still very much economically conservative.
Craig, your point has me wondering whether Chalmers would be like Paul Keating succeeding Bob Hawke. Chalmers could potentially win a 2031 contest against Hastie, even though Labor would be seeking a 4th term, as Keating successfully did in the 1993 ‘Fightback’ campaign against John Hewson.
@Yoh An – you are thinking exactly what I was thinking. I had intended to mention that Chalmers is something of a student of Keating; in fact, he did his PhD dissertation on Keating. As Leader/PM, he would have more discretion to be scrappy compared to Albo, who portrays himself very much as a steady hand. It would definitely be for a 2031 contest, not a 2028 one. Given the current state of affairs, I do not think we will ever reach a point during the 2028 campaign where the Liberals would be favoured to win. I suppose it could happen, but it would be an unexpected upset of historic proportions. That said, in looking over John Hewson’s Fightback! Manifesto, I can’t see Hastie, or any Liberal at this point, being able to run on those principles.
Yoh Ahn
Paul Keating was seeking a fifth term for Labor in 1993
Andrew Hastie always come across as measured and intelligent rather than a populist ‘mouth before brain’ sort – looking at you here Jacinta!. In that way, he comes across as a viable conservative leader who can persuade people to see his point of view – the battle he will have is getting the moderates on side and keeping the ‘right rabble’ in their box. If there is a battle of ideas it is pity that Keith Wholohan lost his seat as he would provided a counterfoil. It might ultimately be better if the ‘right rabble’ spin off and burn out like a comet. The big problem that any Liberal leader has is that there is so little depth – both political and intellectual – to provide back up. His other big plus is that he has a certain amount of gravitas and seems to work well on television – though the latter is a diminishing commodity in the age of social media.
@craig except Keating now wants nothing to do with Chalmers. he wouldnt give him the time of day if he asked him for it.
also Chalmers will need to win not onnly his parliamentary collegues but the rank and file voters who the left currentyl control the number sof
That’s only if it is a contested election.
@redistributed Even Kos Samaras agrees that those qualities set him apart from Morrison and Dutton and make him potentially electable
If Hastie had simply made his comments about manufacturing without the racist “stranger in your own home” comment, Hastie would be a problem for Labor. However, looking at the pendulum, few if any of the traditional manufacturing working class seats are marginal, and there is a string of marginals with high CALD and professional class populations, who could be turned off by Hastie’s language, and that’s before Labor starts attacking Hastie’s conservative values.
Real talk I can assure you charmers is not the only one with leadership ambitions
Look at 2019. Was nobody but Albo filled with ambition? Of course not. Bowen and Pilbersek saw the writing on the wall and decided not to split the party (advice that Hastie would do well to follow).
When Albo retires – and I say “when”, because he won’t be losing office to Ley, Hastie, Taylor, Price or whoever the Liberals churn through by 2028 – they’ll stitch up a coronation for their preferred candidate and avoid a divisive leadership spill. This is perhaps Kevin Rudd’s most significant legacy, aside from the Apology; the end of the cycle of never-ending leadership contests.
Agree Real Talk, at a state level on the Labor side all leaders were unopposed during the spill motions like Albo in 2019 because their competitors chose to withdraw to avoid a bruising internal conflict.
@ Scart
I dont think Morrison was unelectable or too far to the right. He was more moderate than Abbott. If Black Summer Bushfires did not occur and the Covid never happened IMHO there is a good chance that Morrision could have narrowly won the 2022 election. Kos Samaras pointed out Hastie may sound more sympethetic to working class families who are Pro-Union while people like Dutton used anti-union rhetotic. However, this begs the question is he economically right-wing?or Labor lite on economics.
Pencil, the traditional manufacturing seats include Calwell, Scullin, Gellibrand first 3 are CALD we also have Spence. Kingston Brand which are Anglo. these 3 have big margins. I think Hastie wants to tie domestic manufacturing to Climate action as he may feel that it not enough to argue for price rises. Albanese probably worked out that any price increase can now just be overcome with a rebate.
@real talk no they didnt run because they didnt have the numbers or enough factional or union support. they say it was not to split the party but they fact is they couldnt win the ballot and so they didnt run and used that as an excuse.
the same rason when abbott called a spill the first time around turnbull didnt challnege because he didnt have the numbers.
il agree that what killed morrison was a combination of scandals and bad press that built up. including the alleged rape of a staffer that labor tried to make it look like the liberals covered up. and has never been proven.
never say never. abbott had a 90 seat government in 2013 and barely survived in 2016 with turnbull replacement. anything can alway happen.
i can almost guarantee Ley wont be opposition leader by 2028 let alone this time next year. in fact il be surprised if she runs again in 2028 if she doesnt retire after being toppled mid way through this term
i can almost guarantee people werent voting for Albo as much as they were voting against the Liberals.
@John, that why the Liberals need to focus on the economy, infrastructure and housing, to pick up seats. Sussan might not be exciting the right however her numbers are actually quite good for an opposition leader coming off such a bad election.
In retrospect, the Queensland LNP merger was the worst thing ever to happen to conservative politics. The Nationals basically ate the Queensland Liberals – Liberal moderates have been basically driven out in Queensland especially for the senate. Both Queensland Liberals and Nationals were always intellectual underperformers so the merger has produced this big block of the mediocre. It also means that they have become indistinguishable. Matt Canavan is a case in point – a man with the supreme talent of losing moderate votes every time he opens his mouth – in the past the Libs would have said, he is a backwoods Nat and put him back in his box but now they can’t. The merger also produced the Peter Dutton leadership – the product of a more conservative Queensland Liberal Party. Even the results in the last Queensland election have shown that the merger has become an albatross in Brisbane. As Queensland is the last conservative voting bloc – its tradition of far right mediocrity has put it in control.
The reason for the merger was because of the old OPV where libs and nats were at risk of losing heartland seats to labor because of vote loss. Can’t remember the term dry…. labor cries foul of LNP gerrymandering in qld but kept changing the rules to what benefited them they changed from FPV to OPV to hurt the libs and nats and then after they merged they changed it back to avoid losing votes to the Greens.
I’m not sure if Hastie’s intent is to win over red wall seats like Spence, Calwell or Gellibrand. They are on margins of over 10%. Federal election results showed a of the working class voters swinging to the Greens as well as various left-wing and right-wing minor parties, rather than the Liberals. It’s possible that he wanted to tie the closure of car manufacturing with net zero. The thing is that the decline had more to do with free trade. It was also before net zero was adopted.
Hastie has some advantages over Dutton didn’t have. Hastie is younger and fresher. He doesn’t have the baggage that Dutton, Ley and Taylor all have and so Labor can’t run against his record as effectively.
I believe that regardless of leader, the Liberals’ road to recovery should start off with regaining marginal seats in the outer suburbs or either of Labor’s recent pickups. In WA, winning Bullwinkel and Moore would be a good start.
@ Votante
Which seats that Libs did not win in 2013 do you think Hastie is interested in winning. I will count Bullinwinkle as a Liberal seat on 2013 results.
The Liberal Party should target the 34 most marginal Lib vs Labor and Lib vs Ind seats, instead of targetting seats the Liberal Party wouldn’t win if it was Labor was on 43 seats.
If the Liberals gain seats in 2028, it’s likely because Labor’s majority is unsustainable. Normally, first-term governments lose seats but it didn’t happen in 2025. WA is normally conservative. A correction is due sometime. Labor did far better in WA in 2022/25 than in 2007. In 2007, Labor didn’t even win the statewide 2PP.
@Nimalan, looking at the pendulum, the only marginal ALP vs LNP ones that LNP didn’t win in 2013 are Chisholm, McEwen, Blair and Bendigo.
I believe Dutton had high hopes of winning McEwen and Blair as they are outer-suburban and mainly working class and more sensitive to electricity prices and cost of living. However, the 2PP swings to Labor were under 1% and were kept to a minimum.
@ Votante
Those 4 you mentioned were won by Howard in 1996. There is a few others that Howard won at various points that Libs did not win in 2013 or since the Howard Era
1. Ballarat
2. Kingston
3. Makin
4.Parramatta
5. Greenway
6. Moreton
Kingston is now Labor’s safest seat.
Chisholm McEwen Blair and bendigo would all have been won if you base it on polling before the campaign begun. Obviously after the things took a turn for the worse and they didn’t but they almost snatched Bendigo thanks to a good effort by the nats far exceeding my expectations. Blair McEwen and Chisholm all experience ed m minor swings. The r redistribution will either favour labor or LNP in Blair depending on what the committee does. I have an idea what both sides will try and do there. Labor was on track to lose seats in May but didn’t due to a combination of factors that worked in labor’s favour and against the liberals.
Labor “coming together” to chose a leader unopposed isnt the open and transparent process thats embraced by western democracies. It just means they do backroom deals to install someone. Pretty much what they do in communist China. Just like at the last presidential election there wasn’t a democratic process in which Biden became the nominee he simply overruled to normal process because if he had if taken part in a debate for tr nomination his cognitive decline would of been so apparent he would never have come close to getting renominated. And when Trump put him on display they simply tapped him on the shoulder and said “you’re out Joe” but to save face they made it look like his decision. Then installed Kamela Harris without so much as a debate. A leader should be the best a brightest not someone installed with the best connections without a debate. I welcome a debate on the liberal leadership if Susan Ley is truly the best they have then she can prove it in an open and honest challenge with whoever wishes to contest the leadership. Do you really think dictators are there because they are the best the country has to offer? I doubt it.
Nimalan, given the demographics and how some groups (CALD voters and young, tertiary educated professionals) have swung away from the Coalition – I believe Makin and Kingston will not be won by the Liberals even under a landslide 2013 or 1996 style environment.
Ballarat, being a regional seat, is one that will probably be gained when the Coalition win government.
John, whilst you might see the ‘backroom’ deals as communist and bad – I have a different take. Having any internal conflict/s displayed in the public domain (like what the Coalition has gone through) can actually make the party look worse due to the all the media attention. Far better to have all these ‘disputes’ hidden away so the party can actually focus on their own messaging to voters.
Thats all well and good until eliminating your opponents behind the scenes takes on a whole new meaning.
“I welcome a debate on the liberal leadership if Susan Ley is truly the best they have then she can prove it in an open and honest challenge with whoever wishes to contest the leadership”
I’m old enough to remember when Sussan Ley did exactly that. Oh, the irony of beating a former shadow treasurer who couldn’t count his numbers. At least Well Done Angus was in the race, unlike a certain cowardly muppet.
Yea and I didn’t like either candidate if I were a liberal member I would have abstained from voting. I have always supported one candidate at every spill except this time because both candidates were lame ducks, although I did predict Sussan ley would win because Angus Taylor had screwed over certain voting mps. I want Hastie to run. He’ll I supported joh Pesutþo at the time yntil he screwed over Moira Deeming.