LIB 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Hastie, since 2015.
Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including Mandurah and most of the Peel region. Canning covers the entirety of the Mandurah, Murray, and Waroona council areas, as well as parts of the Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Rockingham council areas.
Redistribution
Canning’s northern boundary was changed, losing Bedfordale, Roleystone, Martin and Karragullen to the new seat of Bullwinkel, and also losing Darling Downs and Oakdale to Burt. Canning gained Karnup, Secret Harbour and Singleton from Brand. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 3.6% to 1.2%.
History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.
Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.
The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.
Gear was defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Ricky Johnston, who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Labor’s Jane Gerick in 1998.
Gerick was defeated narrowly by Liberal candidate Don Randall in 2001.
Randall held Canning for over a decade, winning re-election in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. His narrow margin in 2001 blew out to 59.5% in 2004, shrinking to 52.2% in 2010 before growing out to 61.8% in 2013.
Randall died in early 2015, and the ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. Hastie has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Canning is very marginal but Hastie’s position should be more solid in current circumstances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 41,294 | 43.8 | -5.3 | 41.6 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 30,897 | 32.8 | +5.2 | 35.0 |
| Jodie Moffat | Greens | 7,659 | 8.1 | +0.6 | 8.3 |
| Tammi Siwes | One Nation | 4,215 | 4.5 | -2.6 | 4.6 |
| James Waldeck | United Australia | 2,438 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 2.7 |
| Brad Bedford | Western Australia Party | 2,202 | 2.3 | -0.5 | 2.4 |
| Ashley Williams | Independent | 1,708 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.6 |
| Andriette Du Plessis | Australian Christians | 1,689 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| David Gardiner | Liberal Democrats | 749 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Anthony Gardyne | Federation Party | 628 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Judith Congrene | Informed Medical Options | 785 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 6,558 | 6.5 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 50,513 | 53.6 | -8.0 | 51.2 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 43,751 | 46.4 | +8.0 | 48.8 |
Booths are split into four areas. About half of the seat’s population is in the Mandurah council area, and this area has been split into Mandurah North and Mandurah South, along the river. The remainder of the seat was split into north and south, with Murray and Waroona council areas in the south, and Rockingham and Serpentine-Jarrahdale council areas in the north.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Mandurah South (53%) and the south (53.5%) while Labor won 52.2% in Mandurah North and 57.1% in the remaining north. The Liberal Party won in part because they won the pre-poll and other votes, which made up almost two thirds of the total vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mandurah North | 10.6 | 47.8 | 9,323 | 10.6 |
| North | 12.6 | 42.9 | 8,362 | 9.5 |
| Mandurah South | 9.9 | 53.0 | 6,236 | 7.1 |
| South | 6.9 | 53.5 | 5,910 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 6.6 | 52.6 | 41,634 | 47.3 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 52.4 | 16,559 | 18.8 |
Election results in Canning at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Fair point Nimalan, I was also surprised by the huge swing to Labor in Tasmania given the popularity of the state Liberals. Then again, I believe the Tasmanian state Liberal party branch is more moderate like the NSW Coalition and its leaders such as Peter Gutwein and Jeremy Rockliff are also seen to be pragmatic in nature, focusing on infrastructure/service delivery and eschewing any talk/discussion about fringe social issues.
@nicholas and all the signs pointed to the fact they would nad they were even looking like they could topple a first term govt. then the campaign started, trump declared war on the world with his tariffs and albo and labor brought out the scare campaign along with the blank chequbook. the libs campaign was a shocker and they effectively were the hare in the hare and the tortoise. remember its not just australia this happened trump was on the ballot in canada too and the conservatives lost what looked like an unlosable election.
John, if using the hare and tortoise analogy that shows the Coalition shouldn’t be too cocky and assume the Australian public are ‘fed up’ of Labor. They should go steady and just point out some of Labor’s failings one at a time rather than go all out at once.
@yoh an it wasnt just tasmania remember there is a popular state govt in qld too but the liberals went backwards there as well. the libs lost a variety of seats in cluding peter duttons own seat. the libs would of been in a good position to make serious inroads in seats like rankin and lilly and possibly set them up for a good 2028. but everything went wrong all over the country. but still despite this they made inroads in several labor seats against the grain.
in may hastie got like a 12% swing in the parts of rockingham transferred from Brand
Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie are not in the same faction. I think it’s important to remember that a vote for Taylor isn’t automatically a vote for Hastie. Which is probably why Sussan is safe for now. Also despite what some MP’s and commentators want. 90% of Liberal Party membership is still in teal seats and those members want those seats back. Kooyong has around half of the entire membership for the Victorian branch. There is no way those members accept abandoning their own seats.
still Taylors factional dealings probly cost the liberal party in part the election. he probly screwed over a few of the people who voted for Ley and thats why they voted for her not him. also i predicted he would lose because of that. i as a member did not want either person for leader. But im a strong supporter for Andrew Hastie. but he would need someone like Tim Wilson as a deputy to moderate the views on the party by the wider public.
My crystal ball.shows a Hastie Chaimers contest some time in the future.
Both are youngish
Mick that future could be as soon as 2028
Agree Darth, that could be the case if Albanese suffers a personal scandal or health scare and is forced to step down as leader and/or MP. However, that possibility is unlikely at the moment with Albo in good health and maintaining reasonable control over the government’s agenda and party room.
I would think Albanese would stay until 2030, giving him 8 years in the top job, and letting a new leader lead the Labor Party into the new decade and 2031 election.