LIB 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Hastie, since 2015.
Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including Mandurah and most of the Peel region. Canning covers the entirety of the Mandurah, Murray, and Waroona council areas, as well as parts of the Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Rockingham council areas.
Redistribution
Canning’s northern boundary was changed, losing Bedfordale, Roleystone, Martin and Karragullen to the new seat of Bullwinkel, and also losing Darling Downs and Oakdale to Burt. Canning gained Karnup, Secret Harbour and Singleton from Brand. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 3.6% to 1.2%.
History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.
Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.
The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.
Gear was defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Ricky Johnston, who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Labor’s Jane Gerick in 1998.
Gerick was defeated narrowly by Liberal candidate Don Randall in 2001.
Randall held Canning for over a decade, winning re-election in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. His narrow margin in 2001 blew out to 59.5% in 2004, shrinking to 52.2% in 2010 before growing out to 61.8% in 2013.
Randall died in early 2015, and the ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. Hastie has been re-elected three times.
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal)
- Fernando Bove (One Nation)
- Jordan Cahill (Greens)
- John Carey (Citizens Party)
- Paul Gullan (Legalise Cannabis)
- Jarrad Goold (Labor)
Assessment
Canning is very marginal but Hastie’s position should be more solid in current circumstances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 41,294 | 43.8 | -5.3 | 41.6 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 30,897 | 32.8 | +5.2 | 35.0 |
| Jodie Moffat | Greens | 7,659 | 8.1 | +0.6 | 8.3 |
| Tammi Siwes | One Nation | 4,215 | 4.5 | -2.6 | 4.6 |
| James Waldeck | United Australia | 2,438 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 2.7 |
| Brad Bedford | Western Australia Party | 2,202 | 2.3 | -0.5 | 2.4 |
| Ashley Williams | Independent | 1,708 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.6 |
| Andriette Du Plessis | Australian Christians | 1,689 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| David Gardiner | Liberal Democrats | 749 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Anthony Gardyne | Federation Party | 628 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Judith Congrene | Informed Medical Options | 785 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 6,558 | 6.5 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 50,513 | 53.6 | -8.0 | 51.2 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 43,751 | 46.4 | +8.0 | 48.8 |
Booths are split into four areas. About half of the seat’s population is in the Mandurah council area, and this area has been split into Mandurah North and Mandurah South, along the river. The remainder of the seat was split into north and south, with Murray and Waroona council areas in the south, and Rockingham and Serpentine-Jarrahdale council areas in the north.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Mandurah South (53%) and the south (53.5%) while Labor won 52.2% in Mandurah North and 57.1% in the remaining north. The Liberal Party won in part because they won the pre-poll and other votes, which made up almost two thirds of the total vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mandurah North | 10.6 | 47.8 | 9,323 | 10.6 |
| North | 12.6 | 42.9 | 8,362 | 9.5 |
| Mandurah South | 9.9 | 53.0 | 6,236 | 7.1 |
| South | 6.9 | 53.5 | 5,910 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 6.6 | 52.6 | 41,634 | 47.3 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 52.4 | 16,559 | 18.8 |
Election results in Canning at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
@ Yoh An
I certainly agree about Kingston i now feel that it will only be won in 1975/1977 type landslide unles there is SA specific factors like what happened when the SA state bank collapsed in the 1990s. Makin i am not sure tbh i think we may need to wait till Zappira retires. I feel Moreton is a left-trending seat and become more socially progessive. Adjusted to 2022 boundaries it voted more for the Voice than Republic in 1999. Lilley is another left trending seat before the 1980s Labor only won it at high tide elections. Libs only barely won it in 1996 (back then it included Clayfield, Ascot etc). It is another seat that adjusted to 2022 boundaries voted more for Voice than the Republic. Perth is another left-trending seat that has not been won by Libs since Fraser lost it in 1983. I agree Ballarat will be targed. Corio is a seat with a history of car manufacturing has not been won since the Menzies/Holt era when the DLP was powerful. It also attracted sea changers and become more socially progressive.
Ballarat will be very interesting is Catherine king retires
A perhaps underappreciated reason for the Liberal decline in Kingston is that (perhaps surprisingly for an outer suburban seat) it has the highest percentage of people with no religion of any seat in Australia, so it’s perhaps not unexpected that a party increasingly influenced by evangelical Christians is relatively less attractive there.
Even Pauline Hanson thinks a challenge is coming
Andrew Hastie has just resigned from the Shadow Cabinet.
Ley won’t last the week. Shame.
Hastie seems to be positioning himself for a leadership challenge. A thought bubble is whether he may decide to join One Nation to succeed Pauline as the face of the party or create his own party in the mould of Reform UK should his leadership bid fail.
5 months in is too soon for a leadership spill. I don’t see any likely contenders. It is undoubtly a bad look for Ley. Hastie is the second shadow minister to leave in under a month. Hastie is ambitious and career-driven. One Nation won’t offer him opportunities for career growth.
He won’t join one Nation he wouldn’t survive as an mp. He’s positioning himself to challenge for the leadership.
IMO, Hastie Price Antic, possibly Taylor, should join ON. I say that in part tongue in cheek, as I wouldn’t expect that to happen. A hard immigration anti-net-zero lets do away with Welcome to Country culture wars is just what the party needs in 2025 and in the future. I would think that Hastie is too smart to go down that road blindly, but the others would. The people spoke on the Voice, and it was duly noted. But there is a difference between a check and a balance on a particular policy point and trying to turn back the clock.
I go back and forth with ON thinking whether, on one hand, they are a party with actual policy and (however distant) a hope to form a government, or just a vehicle of protest for centre-right voters when they are dissatisfied with their local Liberal candidate(s) on that particular day.
If he’s smart, he’ll let Ley take the Liberals to the election, win back 10-20 seats, maybe force Labor into minority, then challenge.
He’s only just turned 43, he still has potentially decades ahead of him.
no LNP member is going to join ON they would all lose their seats. tahts just like the members of the labor party joining the greens
There is a big difference between 10 and 20 seats. If Ley survived to take the Liberals to the people in 2028 and won 20 seats back, she wouldn’t be under a threat of a challenge. Anyone getting that close after Labor was sitting on 94 seats is going to get celebrated. Ten seats, well, that would undoubtedly produce a leadership challenge as 53 seats is not much better than 43 seats in the scope of things.
I don’t think Hastie would be joining One Nation as he is more of a Conservative with traditional characteristics akin to British Conservatives under Badenoch rather than a conspiracy theorist type like One Nation, Trumpet of Patriots, Libertarian, GOP under Trump, etc
ON is no where near the same threat to the LNP as Reform is the Tories. hel ON isnt even at the same level the greens are a threat to Labor. ON probably wont win an LNP seat til the next decade at the very least
if Ley wins 20 seats no challege will get up. there will be a challenge by anzac day at the latest
Neither Andrew Hastie nor Angus Taylor would defect to ON. They are too ‘insider’ and ‘establishment’ – GPS educated, conservative yes but know there is no point being on the edge. ON and the right wing populists relish being the ‘outsiders’ without realising they will always be outside. If for some reason they were to defect the Nats would be a far better fit.
Marh
The UK Tories under Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are very much in Nigel Farage territory – Boris Johnson wiped out most of the sensible tories when he removed the whip from the likes of Rory Stewart, Kenneth Clarke, etc.
@ Redistributed, I would say the early version of AFD in Germany (prior the far-right takeover in 2015) would be the closest to Andrew Hastie and potential other Right faction of the Liberals as the early AFD was a breakaway party of the CDU/CSU.
@Craig @John Ley will be 68-69 by the time the Liberals can next feasibly win an election, older than every PM in post-war history barring Sir Robert in his final couple of years. Even if she wins a whole load of seats back in 2028 (big if) I don’t see her lasting the term.
Scart i fully expect Hastings to challenge by Anzac day at the latest. Although I imagine it will be shortly after Australia Day if he doesn’t do it by the end of this year. Ley will either retire at the next election or force a by election sometime before. This will be her last term. Along with Bob Katter(Kennedy), Catherine King(Ballarat), and Steve Georganis(Adelaide). Along with Michelle Landry(Capricornia) Tony Zapia (Makin) and Joanne Ryan(Lalor). I think Dreyfus will be gone by the end of the year if not early next year. MIKE freelander (Macarthur), tbh the list of aging politicians just goes on. Elizabeth Watson Brown, will be 72. I
Well if we are going there with it then as far as I am concerned we can just clean house. Be off with everyone that is old enough to have used a phone still connected to a wall… Who needs a polling booth we can do in app voting…
Hastie is apparently now in a spat with Arthur Sinodinos. Hastie may very well challenge Ley soon I just don’t see the viability of the Liberals dying on the migration hill.
Polling suggests the majority of Australians think immigration is too high so it’s something that would play to his favour
If the Coalition picks up 20 seats next election, it would be a miraculous turnaround from their worst ever election defeat.
It would actually be an indictment of Labor if the 20 seats all came from Labor. Hell would have to break loose. It would mean they had wasted a massive majority and also a Coalition civil war – the Liberals and Nationals had a short breakup during Ley’s early days as leader.
20 seats would be a massive, and is achievable if Sussan Ley stays leader, and if the Liberals present a unified and moderate platform centered on the economy, and if the Liberals preselect a group of mostly millennial candidates, with a number of talented women in key marginals, and if the Government faces a higher unemployment rate, and worsening housing and rental affordability.
That’s a lot of ifs.
Maybe I’m jumping the gun… but suppose Hastie becomes leader. How does that change assessments of what seats will be in play in 2028? I would assume there’s a number of seats believed to be more winnable with Hastie as leader than with Ley – along with a number the Liberals could write off.
Hastie is g9nna actually stand for something. I think come 2028 or 2031 there’s gonna be a few politicians retiring. Seats will be up for grabs.
Sussan Ley certainly has a chance to gain 20 seats, but she has to stay true to herself and not sway right.
Hastie has some extra support beyond the normal liberal vote. But still only 1 wa pm.in Australian politics john curtin
His candidacy would probably help in some of the wa seats they need to win back. As we saw with Rudd states outside NsW tend to get behind their hometown heroes. WA especially has a strong opposition to being dictated to by the eastern states. I reckon Hastie will give Albo a run for his money. However given they are starting from way behind, even further then Bill Shorten did in 2016. They probably can’t run home with government in 2028 barring some labor collapse. His best bet is to win 15-20 seats. Win back key liberal seats and maybe a few outer suburbs. Seats like Werriwa, McEwen, Blair, Lyons,.
The issue is Hastie would render a lot of seats unwinnable for the Libs. He won’t win back teal seats. Seats like Chisholm and Bennelong would become unwinnable and seats like Banks, Aston and Menzies likely would swing further to Labor. He may even cause the Libs to lose Berowra and Mitchell. A possible WA boost from his leadership won’t help him win back Tangney or Swan. The Libs went further backwards in 2025 after not heeding the lessons from 2022. If the Libs don’t change then they can very well go even further backwards in 2028. A lot of commentary was that 2022 was rock bottom for the Libs. If the Libs can achieve a 2022 result in 2028, it will be hailed as an achievement.
This depends on whether Hastie (if he is the leader, and we are assuming here) tries to take the party to the right to chase votes or centre to chase urban/teal votes. Who knows what the illuminating issues will be in a couple of years? Hastie may be able to win a couple of 2-3 extra seats in WA on pride and perhaps get some ground on migration, but I am not convinced that will get you 34 seats. The generations are changing; the voters of 28 and 31 will be more centred around the Cost of Living, Housing, Jobs, and who knows what effects the next three years of Trump will bring. The video with the ’69 Ford Falcon was cute, but no one under 50 wants to go down memory lane when there aren’t any memories to begin with. Albo is a cautious man, and I don’t expect many radical left-wing policies to emerge from his term. In fact, he may ruffle more feathers on the left than on the right.
Daniel M stop saying they will be unwinnable and that he’ll loose other blue ribbon seats. They said that about Abbott and about Dutton, yes Dutton lost seats including his own. But right up until the campaign started he was on track to possibly steal government. Combination of Poor campaigning, Trump, Mediscare and vite buying helped Albo. Remember it’s not only in Australia this happened the Canadian opposition fell further back thanks to trump. The time the next election rolls around trump will be on his way out forever.
Hastie is probably a lighter version of Dutton p. DUTTon had baggage that Hastie does not. Dutton managed to win back Goldstein in a bad election. Dutton got a small swing in Aston vs the by election. Dutton almost won Kooyong. If the libs do worse in 2028 il be the first to admit I was wrong. Susan Ley is a failure. She was the best of two bad options. Angus Taylor is also a failure.
I would say the failure of the Coalition was only one-third ideological.
The other parts were one-third campaigning and one-third policy.
If Ley or Hastie can fix the other two, then they can win within two cycles.
Agree Scart, Tony Abbott as a right faction figure won because the Coalition campaigned well in 2013 (attacked Labor for their infighting and broken promises) and had a focus on core issues for their policy (economic reform and border security).
If the Coalition (under Ley, Hastie or anyone else) sticks to the same sort of messaging Abbott took to the 2013 election they could recover a fair chunk of seats and revert Labor back to a narrow majority (under 80 seats).
I would argue that ideology didn’t have anything to do with it.
It wasn’t the infighting that did it. It was Julia Gillard flat out reversing herself. It was the carbon tax that did her in. She wasn’t running the govt. She may have had 72 seats but it was Adam Bandt and the Greens that were dictating govt policy. There was also the border problem and out of control illegal immigration.
They need to try and achieve a 2010 style win. Forcing Albo into minority govt and then pulling him apart.my guess is Hulett and Price will give it another swing in 2028 if the libs can improve even a little and labor go backwards a little they’ll lose those 2 seats as well. Those 2 seats show it wasn’t labor that did well but the liberals who did poorly.
I reckon it was about 1/4 campaigning 1/4 policy 1/3 trump and rest the mediscare and vote buying. So they can fix 50% themselves and hope trump is no longer a factor in 2028. That’s an 83% improvement.
Hastie seems to be wanting time to develop a cohesive policy position beyond national security and defence which are his strong suits. He apparently has been studying economics whilst in opposition. Beware the naysayers who say the Libs can’t win with Hastie – their forebears in the 40s said the Libs couldn’t win with Menzies and in the 90s said the Libs couldn’t win with Howard. Peter Dutton came with so much baggage from having been a senior figure for so long. It is harsh but true but looking like Voldemort did not help either. The big problem is that the Liberal talent
pool is so shallow. In 2022, who elso could they turn to but Dutton? Even now, Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor were both lightweights as ministers. Frydenburg has gone, Wholohan has gone – Hastie is sole survivor in the Reps. They have some policy heavy hitters in the Senate – James Patterson and Andrew Bragg – but beyond that – not much. Simon Kennedy possibly…?
Redistributed it wasn’t Dutton baggage that did him in it was bad timing. If Albo had of gone earlier the trump factor wouldn’t have been in play and may have helped him a bit. It was the campaign, policy or lack thereof along with a bit of Mediscare and vote buying that caused the libs to perfom so badly. Hopefully the libs will learn from it. I met Dutton once and I have to say I was impressed. Hastie will outperform expectations and leave people in his wake. Ley is a placeholder.
@Redistributed, not saying Hastie can’t win, just that he comes across as too blokey and too boomer, even though his gen x. If he was an American, I could see him being competitive in a Presidential race, for his military background would be an asset in US politics, however in the Australian context, I am yet to see how he appeals to middle Australian in Chisholm, Reid and Boothby.
Hastie is actually a Millennial (born 1982) and Reid and Boothby are both on double figure and are unwinnable for any Coalition leader within one term.
Pencil he probably won’t win boothby or Reid however Chisholm is still a possibility. I would argue that depending on what the redistribution throws up their maybe some hope of him winning seats like Lyons and Blair along with regaining lost heartland seats. If wolahan runs again in Menzies that should be winnable. I don’t think hastie will challenge ley this side of Christmas. I reckon he will want to spend that with his family and gather his thoughts and gather his supporters in the new year. If their are any more resignations from the coalition cabinet that will be the sign.
Scart also known as gen y
@SCart, thanks, that’s what I am getting at, he comes across as older than he is. There are a lot of seats on big margins, making the Coalition’s job harder.
There are 16 seats that are marginal 17 in Bendigo for the coalition. 3 for inds and 2 grns. Labor could conceivably lose all these at the next election. That puts them into minority. Take into account seats like werriwa pearce hawke whitlam. There is plenty of seats for the lnp to recover.
There’s no history of the Liberal Party winning Hawke, Whitlam and Werriwa, and until the Liberals win them, they should be viewed more as nice seats to win.
Pencil, the upcoming Victorian election will be a good predictor if the Liberals can win some ‘reach’ target seats such as McEwen and Hawke. If they pick up Yan Yean and/or Melton that would be a good sign they can gain the overlapping federal seats too.
Whitlam could be difficult due to Carol Berry being an incumbent and having some sophomore surge upon recontesting her seat. Werriwa is an easier target as Labor has struggled, underperforming compared to their statewide average. A strong candidate from the Liberals could easily put it into play.
Beyond the merits and capabilities of Andrew Hastie as a leader and policy-maker – of which I am dubious – it is worthwhile pointing out that if he were to challenge Ley soon, he would be asking the Liberals to effectively make him leader for the next fifteen years at least. This would assume six years in opposition and three terms in government beginning in 2031. This would be the second-longest unbroken tenure of any political leader, behind Menzies.
While I wouldn’t put it past Labor to hoist themselves by their own petards and squander their historic majority in six years, the likelihood of Hastie being the one to directly benefit seems rather remote.
Much like in 1996, it’s possible that the next person to lead the opposition back into government isn’t even in the House.
Happy to return to this comment in 2031 or 2040 and eat humble pie.