Ginninderra – ACT 2024

Incumbent MPs

• Yvette Berry (Labor), since 2012.
• Peter Cain (Liberal), since 2020.
• Tara Cheyne (Labor), since 2016.
• Jo Clay (Greens), since 2020.
• Elizabeth Kikkert (Liberal), since 2016.

• Geography
• History
• Candidates
• Assessment
• 2020 result
• 2020 preference flows
• Booth breakdown
• Results maps

Geography
Ginninderra covers the majority of the Belconnen district in north-western Canberra, including the suburbs of Aranda, Macquarie, Bruce, Page, Scullin, Florey, Latham, Higgins, Macgregor, Charnwood, Melba, Spence, Fraser, Evatt, McKellar, Lawson and Dunlop.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The electorate of Ginninderra was created in 1995, when the ACT electoral system was changed to introduce multi-member districts for the first time.The seat covered almost exactly the same area from 1995 until 2012, having undergone two minor redistributions prior to the 2001 and 2012 elections.

Ginninderra has always elected five MLAs. Labor has always won two seats, and the Liberal Party has also won two. The fifth seat has alternated between Labor and a succession of crossbenchers.

In 1995, the fifth seat was won by Greens candidate Lucy Horodny. In 1998, she lost that seat to independent Dave Rugendyke, running on a social conservative platform with former rugby league player Paul Osborne.

In 2001, the seat instead went Roslyn Dundas of the Democrats.

In 2004, the seat went to Labor’s Mary Porter, giving Labor three out of the five seats, which helped give them majority government for the only time in ACT history.

In 2008, the third Labor seat was lost to the Greens’ Meredith Hunter, one of four Greens elected across the territory. In 2012, Hunter lost her seat to Labor’s Yvette Berry.

The 2016 election produced a status quo result, with Labor holding three seats and the Liberal Party holding two.

In 2020, Labor lost their third seat to the Greens’ Jo Clay.

Candidates

Assessment
Traditionally Labor and Liberal have both held two seats throughout the Hare-Clark era in Ginninderra, but the preference allocations from 2020 reveal that the second Liberal seat was only barely held on – a slightly lower Liberal vote could have seen a split of 3 Labor, 1 Greens and 1 Liberal.

It’s also worth noting that the Belco Party polled almost 10% in Ginninderra, which was the best result for any party outside of the three Assembly parties in any electorate. A swing of roughly 0.15 quota towards this party would have seen them overtake the second Liberal and potentially challenge for the fifth seat. It’s possible that a decline in support for the Labor-Greens government could manifest in a more right-wing crossbencher in Ginninderra.

2020 result

2020 preference flows

Let’s fast forward until there are ten candidates left in the race. This includes four Liberal candidates, and two each for Labor, the Greens and the Belco Party. Labor’s Yvette Berry has already been elected to the first seat.

• • • Tara Cheyne (ALP) – 0.868 quotas
    • Gordon Ramsay (ALP) – 0.685
    • Elizabeth Kikkert (LIB) – 0.670
    • Jo Clay (GRN) – 0.535
    • Peter Cain (LIB) – 0.407
    • Katt Millner (GRN) – 0.383
    • Robert Gunning (LIB) – 0.381
    • Bill Stefaniak (BEL) – 0.358
    • Kacey Lam (LIB) – 0.311
    • Chic Henry (BEL) – 0.274

Just over half of Henry’s preferences flowed to the one remaining Belco Party candidate, pushing Stefaniak into sixth place:

• • • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.882
    • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.701
    • Kikkert (LIB) – 0.684
    • Clay (GRN) – 0.541
    • Stefaniak (BEL) – 0.506
    • Cain (LIB) – 0.420
    • Gunning (LIB) – 0.394
    • Millner (GRN) – 0.388
    • Lam (LIB) – 0.318

Lam’s preferences flowed most strongly to her fellow Liberals, particularly Kikkert:

• • • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.895
    • Kikkert (LIB) – 0.804
    • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.710
    • Clay (GRN) – 0.551
    • Stefaniak (BEL) – 0.523
    • Cain (LIB) – 0.482
    • Gunning (LIB) – 0.454
    • Millner (GRN) – 0.395

About two thirds of Millner’s preferences flowed to the last remaining Greens candidate, pushing Clay into third place:

• • • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.934
    • Clay (GRN) – 0.838
    • Kikkert (LIB) – 0.808
    • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.730
    • Stefaniak (BEL) – 0.527
    • Cain (LIB) – 0.487
    • Gunning (LIB) – 0.456

Gunning’s preferences pushed Gunning ahead of Stefaniak, and pushed Kikkert close to a quota:

• • • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.944
    • Clay (GRN) – 0.843
    • Kikkert (LIB) – 0.985
    • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.749
    • Cain (LIB) – 0.683
    • Stefaniak (BEL) – 0.542

Stefaniak’s preferences mostly exhausted, but the remainder favoured the Liberals, pushing Kikkert over quota:

• • • Kikkert (LIB) – 1.082
    • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.974
    • Clay (GRN) – 0.866
    • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.787
    • Cain (LIB) – 0.753

Kikkert’s small surplus was just enough to push Cain ahead of Ramsay:

• • • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.979
    • Clay (GRN) – 0.868
    • Cain (LIB) – 0.807
    • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.790

Cain, the second Liberal, ended up only winning by just 0.017 quotas over the third Labor candidate.

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Ginninderra have been split into three parts: central, north and east.

Labor topped the poll in all three areas, ranging from 39.8% in the north to 40.4% in the centre.

The Liberal vote ranged from 26.2% in the east to 27.6% in the centre. The Greens polled 10.7% in the centre and north, but close to 14% in the east. The Belco Party came fourth, with a primary vote ranging from 8.1% in the east to 11.1% in the north.

Election results in Ginninderra at the 2020 ACT election
Toggle between primary votes for the Labor Party, Liberal Party, the Greens and the Belco Party.

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