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Interesting news with Liberals changing Deputy Leader, changing from Jeremy Hanson (Murrumbidgee) to Leanne Castley (this seat). This is alluded to a shift in power, with Hanson having views that are best defined as right and at odds with current leader Elizabeth Lee, who is more moderate. On the other side, I think the Liberals did this for strategic (if I’m giving them too much credit) reasons. Yerrabi has the lowest Greens vote, which sees that seat very marginal and a needed Liberal gain, if they are to ever form government again in ACT. However, the downside is the loss of Alistair Coe’s personal vote and having Leanne as deputy will increase her profile her to shore up that vote. Jeremy’s personal vote of 15.3% was the 4th best and Alistair’s 16.2% the 2nd best in the last election. Risky and could work, as long as it doesn’t alienate Jeremy, as the Liberals will need his profile in Murrumbidgee.
Full article found at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-04/canberra-liberals-jeremy-hanson-dumped-as-deputy-leader/103184184
As an aside, I can see the Liberals, at best gaining 3 seats (Yerrabi, Brindabella and Kurrajong all from GRN) to give ALP 10, LIB 12, GRN 3. I just can’t see how the Liberals get that 4th seat for Government, this far out, but anything can change.
Leanne Castley is also from the far right of the Liberals but perhaps has less on record illustrating that than Hanson.
I remember the media reporting the Liberals won 3 on election night shortly before the interim distribution revealed that the Greens won instead, and beyond reasonable doubt too (not a nail biter like Kurrajong and Brindabella). Braddock should be able to hang on without too much trouble as I don’t see Labor going back to 3 easily, nor Liberals being better positioned than in 2020.
Politics Obsessed – The Liberals easiest path to majority is winning 3 in Yerrabi, Murrumbidgee and Brindabella and win back their 2nd in Kurrajong, but I agree it’s unlikely. Their path to government involves pro-Liberal independents and third parties being elected. Fiona Carrick who came somewhat close to threatening the Greens seat in Murrumbidgee is a NIMBY that likely would have sided with the Liberals over Labor in a balance of power situation. Liberals will never get 3 in Ginninderra but on several occasions there’s been a well funded right wing minor party trying to turn the last seat right wing (Belco Party being the most recent example). That can of course backfire horribly and we almost got a 3-1-1 result in Ginninderra.
John and PO, I wonder if the Greens may be more open to backing a minority Liberal government if the numbers do end up as you indicated (12-10) with the Liberals having more seats. The Liberals could argue on merit if their primary vote is also substantially higher than Labor’s (at least 3-4% more and a base vote >35%, something like a 38-33 split or 43-37).
Of course, it would also depend on the campaign the Liberals run on. If they focus on a service-based strategy that would obviously be better than if they were to use a more social issue (anti-woke) type campaign.
The issue in the ACT is that there is no working class, little rural areas so an anti-woke strategy will not really work. The only exception is there is a Christian Vote in the ACT, that is why you get leaders like Alistair Coe who is religious and anti-abortion etc but accepts Climate action etc. An anti-climate action will not work with a generally affluent and educated demographic and race-based appeals will be less likely to work in a community with high degrees of social cohesion.
Agree Nimalan, also campaigns have to be fought using a more serious or fact-based strategy. I believe Alistair Coe whilst running a cost-of-living issues campaign in 2020 tried to be like Boris Johnson and use fancy gimmicks which didn’t appeal at all to the more well-educated voters of Canberra.
Any polling in the A.C.T?
@spacefish yea it was on oct 14 🙂