Kurrajong – ACT 2024

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  1. The trends that led to Liberals only getting 1 seat in 2020 have only accelerated further now, and the redistribution has cut out most (but not all) of the Liberals best areas in the seat. Lee will get a leadership boost but this is amidst Barr also getting one, and Rattenbury as well depending on how the election is covered.

    Despite the absurdity of the 2020 result I think status quo is more likely than Liberals getting their 2nd seat back.

  2. John, a comparison to Kurrajong 2024 would be the contest in Franklin for the 2014 Tasmanian state election. On that occasion, all three leaders from the major parties represented that seat and the one who benefitted most from a ‘leadership’ factor was Will Hodgman due to the strong anti-Labor mood at that election.

    I’m not sure what the current mood in the ACT is, but due to the long period of Labor government there may be some ‘time for change’ sentiment which could work against Labor and the Greens. Then again, this is a high-density CBD centric seat where the support for Liberals is poor, so that would favour the Greens more.

  3. Could the Greens eventually hold more seats than the Liberals in the ACT? Could the Liberals ever win back government after being in opposition for so damn long? I’m curious for what your thoughts on this are.

  4. i personally think the Greens are only really strong in the Inner North of Canberra due to a high amount of young renters. The Liberals still have a presence in the Inner South which is wealthy and the Brindabella/Nappy Valley areas. The issue is that the Libs probably need a centrist independent to win in order for them to form a minority government. They will not go into Government with the Greens as there is still a Christian vote in Canberra. I think on a good election Libs can win maybe 11 out 25 ACT seats so they still need maybe 2 more. I think it is unlikely again that Labor will win a majority in their own right which they only achieved in 2004

  5. @Nimalan I agree and that’s how the Liberals got government in the ACT in 1095 and 1998: by getting support from independents. No Liberal leader would ever go into government with the Greens anywhere, in fact they would rather go into government with Labor or the teals than the Greens.

  6. Agree Nimalan, I think the teal movement is supporting a local grassroots type independent campaign with Clare Carnell (former Liberal Chief Minister Kate Carnell’s daughter) leading it. If any teal type independents in the mould of current Senator David Pocock get elected, they could be persuaded to back a minority Liberal government under the right circumstances especially if they capture votes and seats primarily from Labor rather than the Liberals.

  7. @ Nether Portal
    I think the Libs aiming for a territory-wide vote of between 39-40% is a realistic target as is 11 out of 25 seats. In 2012 they slightly outpolled Labor on primaries ACT Wide and in 2016 they won 11 seats so i think it is realistic that the Libs can aim to win a higher primary vote than Labor and more seats. However, i think getting a primary vote close to to mid 40s is a very high bar in the ACT as there is little rural areas and even the Liberal friendly areas are not like the North Shore/Wentworth where the Libs can run up big margins. However, as Yoh An correctly pointed out this requires the independent to take votes of Labor rather than Libs.

  8. @Nether Portal [comment 11:47am 15/5/24]

    I actually thought this a considered idea, with the fact that is would only require two LIB MLAs to defect to GRN to make them official opposition. That would require some serious wrangling but just shows how close the GRNs are to that scenario. However, I believe they hit a high mark in 2020 with some very favourable exclusions, and would expect them to be at 4-5 seats this election.

    @Nimalan [comment 1:00pm 15/2/24], et al.

    If 11 is the best we can see the LIBs doing, they’d be hoping a Belco Party candidate would get up in Ginninderra at the expense of GRN 1. The risk here is if the LIB vote drops, loosing the LIB2 to Belco, you’d still need LIBs to find 2 seats elsewhere. Still see it hard how the LIBs get Government here unless there is a massive swing in all ACT electorates. Even 2012 shows that tying with ALP on seats is just not enough, as GRN will support them and they have a very cordial working relationships (unlike Tasmania).

    So where do they go from 9 to 13? 3rd LIB in Brindabella, and they MUST get 2nd LIB in Kurrajong, and you’d have to say 3rd LIB in Murrumbidgee with a 1st Belco in Ginninderra. Loosing Alistair Coe hurts LIBs in Yerrabri and Gulia Jones in Murrumbidgee. The aforementioned is the best case scenario I really can think of a LIB government in ACT. ‘Time’ factor and federal drag will play a part on ALP but it’s really is tricky for LIBs to govern in what is a very progressive electorate. Love to hear other thoughts on possible routes to a LIB government in ACT.


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