Kurrajong – ACT 2024

The trends that led to Liberals only getting 1 seat in 2020 have only accelerated further now, and the redistribution has cut out most (but not all) of the Liberals best areas in the seat. Lee will get a leadership boost but this is amidst Barr also getting one, and Rattenbury as well depending on how the election is covered.

Despite the absurdity of the 2020 result I think status quo is more likely than Liberals getting their 2nd seat back.

John, a comparison to Kurrajong 2024 would be the contest in Franklin for the 2014 Tasmanian state election. On that occasion, all three leaders from the major parties represented that seat and the one who benefitted most from a ‘leadership’ factor was Will Hodgman due to the strong anti-Labor mood at that election.

I’m not sure what the current mood in the ACT is, but due to the long period of Labor government there may be some ‘time for change’ sentiment which could work against Labor and the Greens. Then again, this is a high-density CBD centric seat where the support for Liberals is poor, so that would favour the Greens more.

Could the Greens eventually hold more seats than the Liberals in the ACT? Could the Liberals ever win back government after being in opposition for so damn long? I’m curious for what your thoughts on this are.

i personally think the Greens are only really strong in the Inner North of Canberra due to a high amount of young renters. The Liberals still have a presence in the Inner South which is wealthy and the Brindabella/Nappy Valley areas. The issue is that the Libs probably need a centrist independent to win in order for them to form a minority government. They will not go into Government with the Greens as there is still a Christian vote in Canberra. I think on a good election Libs can win maybe 11 out 25 ACT seats so they still need maybe 2 more. I think it is unlikely again that Labor will win a majority in their own right which they only achieved in 2004

@Nimalan I agree and that’s how the Liberals got government in the ACT in 1095 and 1998: by getting support from independents. No Liberal leader would ever go into government with the Greens anywhere, in fact they would rather go into government with Labor or the teals than the Greens.

Agree Nimalan, I think the teal movement is supporting a local grassroots type independent campaign with Clare Carnell (former Liberal Chief Minister Kate Carnell’s daughter) leading it. If any teal type independents in the mould of current Senator David Pocock get elected, they could be persuaded to back a minority Liberal government under the right circumstances especially if they capture votes and seats primarily from Labor rather than the Liberals.

@ Nether Portal
I think the Libs aiming for a territory-wide vote of between 39-40% is a realistic target as is 11 out of 25 seats. In 2012 they slightly outpolled Labor on primaries ACT Wide and in 2016 they won 11 seats so i think it is realistic that the Libs can aim to win a higher primary vote than Labor and more seats. However, i think getting a primary vote close to to mid 40s is a very high bar in the ACT as there is little rural areas and even the Liberal friendly areas are not like the North Shore/Wentworth where the Libs can run up big margins. However, as Yoh An correctly pointed out this requires the independent to take votes of Labor rather than Libs.

@Nether Portal [comment 11:47am 15/5/24]

I actually thought this a considered idea, with the fact that is would only require two LIB MLAs to defect to GRN to make them official opposition. That would require some serious wrangling but just shows how close the GRNs are to that scenario. However, I believe they hit a high mark in 2020 with some very favourable exclusions, and would expect them to be at 4-5 seats this election.

@Nimalan [comment 1:00pm 15/2/24], et al.

If 11 is the best we can see the LIBs doing, they’d be hoping a Belco Party candidate would get up in Ginninderra at the expense of GRN 1. The risk here is if the LIB vote drops, loosing the LIB2 to Belco, you’d still need LIBs to find 2 seats elsewhere. Still see it hard how the LIBs get Government here unless there is a massive swing in all ACT electorates. Even 2012 shows that tying with ALP on seats is just not enough, as GRN will support them and they have a very cordial working relationships (unlike Tasmania).

So where do they go from 9 to 13? 3rd LIB in Brindabella, and they MUST get 2nd LIB in Kurrajong, and you’d have to say 3rd LIB in Murrumbidgee with a 1st Belco in Ginninderra. Loosing Alistair Coe hurts LIBs in Yerrabri and Gulia Jones in Murrumbidgee. The aforementioned is the best case scenario I really can think of a LIB government in ACT. ‘Time’ factor and federal drag will play a part on ALP but it’s really is tricky for LIBs to govern in what is a very progressive electorate. Love to hear other thoughts on possible routes to a LIB government in ACT.

Kurrajong is really interesting: where will the independents get their votes from? Strong Independents will get their votes from the Liberals. Independents for Canberra? Anybody’s guess – maybe some discontented Labor voters, maybe some Liberal voters? Any dispersion of votes to independents plus demographic change may enable the Greens to hold on to their second seat. Much will have to go right for the Liberals for them to reclaim that seat.

I think Independents for Canberra will mostly take from Liberals. There’s an informed cohort of left leaning voters that parked their anti Liberal vote with Pocock (instead of Greens) to try beat Zed. They’re not going to lend anyone their vote at the ACT government level. The involvement of Kate Carnell’s daughter and possibility of forming a Liberal government is also going to give left leaning voters pause (especially if Labor back it in with ads)

I think they’ll do slightly better than Canberra Progressives did in 2020, and not close enough to a quota to threaten any incumbents.

A lot of people who voted for Pocock in 2022 where tactical Labor and Greens voters who have no intention to vote for more right-leaning independent at the Territory level election, they were willing to do it to oust Zed. It will be interesting if the next redistribution cuts out Griffith if that happens it will be hell for the Libs in this seat.

The Inner South is an area where it would make sense to split up suburbs at future redistributions. Case in point – the Kingston Hotel surrounded by apartments like the rest of the area… is in Griffith.

I think the next redistribution will put Narrabundah in Murrumbidgee and keep Griffith in. Griffith has more “inner city” areas like Manuka and the aforementioned “technically not Kingston” area that make it seem like a part of Kurrajong.

I would think any redistribution improves the Greens vote in both seats the way the last one did.

I am wondering if Canberra Ave and the Monaro Highway should be the boundaries for this seat. I am also thinking whether Manuka should be made a separate suburb from Griffith.

I mentioned in the general election thread that independents have a slim chance of winning.

Pocock won with help from Greens and Labor voters voting tactically and also teal liberals who didn’t want to vote for Zed Seselja – a hard right Liberal. The Greens weren’t going to win a senate seat anyway so their voters may as well voted for Pocock. Because of proportional representation in the ACT, Greens and Labor voters will vote knowing that votes will count for something.

The entry of DLP, Family First and teal independent groups might split the right-leaning or socially conservative vote in Kurrajong. The exit of the Progressives might lessen vote splitting on the centre-left and left.

Votante, So in other words you are predicting a Labor-Green win again? I doubt that will happen considering how unpopular Barr has become. People want change.

I will eat my hat if Barr wins again, It won’t happen, Liberals will recover their 2nd seat in this electorate I promise you!, They will also win 3 seats in 3/5 electorates (Yerrabi, Ginninderra + Brindabella) and will win 2 in the other 2 seats. That is 13 seats, That is a majority my friend.

Labor won’t be far ahead of the Greens, and I actually predict there is a shot that Labor could be 3rd place in seats and votes, The Greens could be 2nd place. Labor will collapse with a combination with voter fatigue and both Barr and Albo being unpopular in the territory.

I have the Territory-Wide Liberal vote at around 40%. I could be wrong but I predict it will be an upset victory for the Liberals and Labor will be gutted and the Greens will have a good result. ACT Labor’s time will come to an end and I am looking forward to it.

Daniel, I think the ACT election will be like the recent Tasmania one where there is fatigue with the incumbent government, but the opposition hasn’t done enough to convince the public they should switch to them instead.

As a result, I believe there will be a swing against Labor, but it will be to the Independents/minor parties instead. The Liberals will only receive a small swing (3% or less) in their favour with the recovery of just 2 seats (3rd Brindabella one plus the 2nd Kurrajong seat).

The result is likely to be a minority Liberal government (11 seats plus support of at least 2 independents).

Get set to eat your hat, Daniel T.

The idea that Barr is unpopular and on the nose has been a trope for a 3rd election running, and just like the last 2 elections is based on no polling. It can’t be ruled out – it’s quite possible that 2020 was a COVID special that bought time for a deeply unpopular incumbent (an emerging narrative about QLD). Yet based on federal (a flawed measure, but more accurate than poll free punditry), the Canberra Liberals are weaker than ever.

For what it’s worth (again, not much but more than newspaper editorials), nearby Monaro was one of the seats Labor picked up to win NSW 2023. Queanbeyan Palerang likely reelected a progressive council of Labor, unbranded Labor, and Greens. A good sign for Lee that the branded Liberals increased their vote from 17 % to 25% (at the expense of Independent Nat members). and a small swing against Greens (10% to 8%).

I am grasping at straws though – really would just like to see a single poll. Until then I’m assuming Canberra is still a Labor town. One willing to entertain Greens and maybe independents to shake things up sure, which has led to some Liberal governments.

Purely on vibes? Not feeling the mood for change any more than 2020 or 2016. Conservative politics is deeply unpopular especially with so many closely following the US election, and not much traction for the idea Canberra Liberals should get a pass (though ACT politics is a distant 3rd to Federal and US politics in discussions). Lots of smug pride that the ACT voted Yes to the voice and had extremely high vaccination rates, and contempt for the right wing “cooker” protesters of 2022. And as for Kurrajong Canberra’s inner north looks more like Melbourne’s inner north than ever to the point where it’s plausible to me that Liberals only just scrape past the one quota and Vassarotti should be safe.

The wildcard is IFC – Pocock is generally seen as very competent and pleasantly surprising and a shoo in for reelection (I’m voting for him next time and I’m a Greens member), and the other federal teals are well liked here and get a warm welcome at local politics in the pub events. But people don’t talk about Thomas Emerson or any of the others the same way – again, ACT politics isn’t that popular a subject. So there’s the “vibes”.

Based on vibes, I think status quo with IFC getting about half a quota but missing out due to ticket leakage and the incumbents getting fairly close to what they need. Liberals do even worse than last time but Lee home safe.

@Daniel T, “Votante, So in other words you are predicting a Labor-Green win again? I doubt that will happen considering how unpopular Barr has become. People want change.

I will eat my hat if Barr wins again, It won’t happen, Liberals will recover their 2nd seat in this electorate I promise you!, They will also win 3 seats in 3/5 electorates (Yerrabi, Ginninderra + Brindabella) and will win 2 in the other 2 seats. That is 13 seats, That is a majority my friend.”

I didn’t suggest in my previous post a Labor-Greens government. My comment was mainly about independents in ACT and vote-splitting in Kurrajong. I do sense a Labor minority or status quo, with maybe 2 Labor seats lost. The wild card is the “independents”. Combined, they’ll likely finish fourth in ACT.

We get that Labor has been in government forever. People may be tired but they may not be so willing to vote Liberal in droves. Canberra also has a high turnover in population and there have been lots of new Canberrans moving in. They may not have experience 20+ years of territory Labor.

Daniel T – Whatever else happens Liberals will not win 3 seats in Gininderra – they will be doing well to retain to retain their second seat not least because they have lost their best vote winner from 2020 Elizabeth Kikkert who is running for Family First. If Belco Party poll well & the IFC score votes it they could be at risk of losing it to one of the above parties or even the Labor Party. Gininderra is the most left leaning seat in the ACT even ahed of Kurrajong.

Getting back their second seat in seat in Kurrajong will not be a shoo in for the Liberals. The redistribution has helped the Greens and Labor – in addition demographic trends are I suspect working against the Liberals in this seat. Strong Independents will appeal to Liberal voters & won’t hurt Labor while it is not clear how attractive IFC will be to Labor voters – I don’t think they will hurt the Greens much at all in this seat.

I agree with your conclusions Doug – though with a Labor+Greens primary vote of 62+% in Kurrajong (plus a smattering of progressive others) I think it is easily the most left-wing seat in the ACT, ahead of 52.5% in Ginninderra.

In any case, the Liberals would be cheering if they won 2 seats in Ginninderra after their series of candidate disasters.

Southsider – you are right – maths went badly wrong there

No change