2025 Australian federal election

Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the next Australian federal election. This guide will include comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2022 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.

On this page you can find links to each individual profile for one third of all House of Representatives electorates, and the Senate contests in the six states and the two territories.

This guide is a work in progress. For now profiles have only been prepared for fifty electorates, as well as profiles for the eight Senate contests. Profiles for the 100 seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia will be produced once the redistribution concludes in 2024.

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Most of this guide is currently only available to those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I have unlocked two House profiles and one Senate profile for everyone to read – scroll to the end of this page to find the list of unlocked profiles.

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Table of contents:

  1. Local electorate profiles
  2. Senate profiles
  3. Free samples
  4. Contact

Local electorate profiles

Profiles have been produced for 50 out of 150 House of Representatives electorates: those in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory.

Profiles for electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia will need to wait for the conclusions of redistributions in 2024.

You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile:

You can use the following map to click on any lower house seat, and then click through to the relevant guide where available.

Senate profiles

Profiles have been written for the Senate races in all six states and both territories.

Free samples

Most of this election guide is only available to people who chip in $5 or more per month via Patreon, but a small selection have been unlocked for free access:

Contact

If you have a correction or an update for a single electorate page, feel free to post a comment. You can also send an email by using this form.

If you’d like me to include a candidate name or website link in my election guide, please check out my candidate information policy.

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    129 COMMENTS

    1. @John it really depends on the next NT general election but it still seems like the NT is a bit like Tasmania in a way: some people vote Liberal on the state level and Labor on the federal level (reversed Queensland), because the CLP does well in parts of Palmerston despite not winning many booths in Solomon in 2022. The CLP doesn’t have factions but it’s always tended to be moderate whilst still being agrarian, e.g the Rights of the Terminally Ill Act 1995 in the NT was passed by the CLP government which was overturned by the Euthanasia Laws Act 1997 in the Federal Parliament.

    2. Anyway, I’ve updated my map of targets seats in 2025: https://jmp.sh/AnJrqzHk

      Purple seats are major party targets, yellow seats are Greens targets, teal seats are teal targets and Fowler is pink as it is a target for the DLFCN and Labor. Darker shades indicate higher priority targets while lighter shades indicate lower priority targets.

      Overall, the top target seats for the major parties on my map are Aston, Bennelong, Blair, Deakin, Gilmore, Hasluck, Lingiari, Lyons, Menzies, Paterson, Pearce, Robertson, Sturt and Tangney. Two additional top targets are Curtin (Liberal/teal) and Macnamara (Labor/Greens).

      Every marginal seat made it to the list of targets, and a few safe(r) seats made it to the lower end of the list of targets (including the old bellwether seat of Makin).

      The main target regions are Western Sydney, Sydney’s Inner West, the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne, the Moreton Bay region of Brisbane, Perth, pockets of Adelaide, the entire Northern Territory, the Central Coast, the South Coast and Monaro regions of NSW, and eastern Tasmania. Random targets can be found elsewhere however, such as Bennelong and Parramatta in northern Sydney, Blair in the outer suburbs of Ipswich and the Somerset Valley, Paterson in the Hunter region and many others.

    3. Changes made in the updated version of the map:

      Seats added:
      * Bonner, QLD
      * Brisbane, QLD
      * Bruce, QLD
      * Cooper, VIC
      * Hunter, NSW
      * McMahon, NSW
      * Moreton, QLD
      * Petrie, QLD
      * Warringah, NSW
      * Wentworth, NSW
      * Whitlam, NSW
      * Wills, VIC

      Seats removed:
      * Durack, WA
      * Isaacs, VIC
      * Monash, VIC

      Some seats also changed tiers, going up to be more targeted or down to be less targeted.

      Overall, the areas that changed the most were Greater Western Sydney (tier increases and two new targets: McMahon and Werriwa), the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne (tier increases in some seats as well as some a new target seat (Bruce) and the removal of Isaacs), the central part of Brisbane along the Brisbane River and near the CBD (four new target seats: Brisbane, Bonner, Moreton and Ryan) and the Central Coast (Dobell became a mid-tier target and Robertson remained a top-tier target, and those are the only two Central Coast-based federal seats). There were no changes in South Australia or Tasmania, and there are still no target seats in the ACT.

    4. @ Nether – I like your map. Good work.

      What’s your darker Teal shade for North Sydney mean? It’s of course cuttingly narrowly teal held (against both LIB on 2Cp and ALP on 3CP).

      How do you relatively assess the North Shore 4? Of course this is all based on the current boundaries which we could know the new draft boundaries within a few weeks

    5. @ np
      Good work
      i agree with Bonner, Petrie, Brisbane etc being added. I also agree that Durack, Issacs and Monash being removed which is what i suggested previously. Some suggestions and queries
      1. I certainly agree Wills is in play due to Palestine, Peter Khalil being more right-wing, AUKUS being unpopular here. However, i am pretty confident that Cooper is not in play for the Greens. Ged Kearney is more progressive, more popular here, less impact due to Palestine as a result a different cultural mix to Wills. At least i think there should a shading difference to indicate this.
      2. I am not sure why Whitlam is a target seat usually a very strong Labor seat unless your factoring a potential redistribution.
      3. I am not sure why Bruce is included i know margin seems low. However, there was anti-lockdown backlash which reduced Labor’s previously thumping margin in Dandenong. Also Palestine will drive a swing to Socialists/Greens here which will increase Labor’s 2PP against Libs unless your factoring a redistribution?
      4. I dont think McMahon is interesting to be honest, i agree about Werriwa. Chris Bowen has held this comfortably in 2013 a lot of people predicted he would loose but he did not really suffer any backlash.
      5. Why do you think Moreton is in play?

    6. @Nimalan thanks.

      1. Yeah on second though I should’ve given Cooper a lighter shade.
      2. Whitlam is a light target because the redistribution might move it into the Southern Highlands but if it remains a Wollongong-based seat it won’t be in play.
      3. Bruce was margin-based but yes redistribution could potentially help.
      4. When Chris Bowen retires McMahon should be more competitive. It includes some Liberal-voting suburbs so the redistribution might be better for the Liberals.
      5. Moreton is in play for a teal. I think it could go to a teal since the LNP, Labor and Greens votes are all over 20%.

    7. @High Street I put North Sydney darker than the other teal seats because of the redistribution.

    8. @ NP
      Once the redistribution is finalized. I look forward to seeing a revised map and i will make suggestions again. A few points.
      1. I agree that McMahon is more socially mixed and Liberal friendly than seats such as Blaxland, Watson, Chifley and Fowler. In someways it like Werriwa, Macarthur and Greenway safeish Labor rather than Rocksolid.
      2. I dont agree Moreton is play for a Teal. For this reason, the Teals depend on tactical voting by Labor and Greens so they make the 2CP. There is few if any where they could get there on their own. In seats where Labor is competitive the teal usually flops this happened in Boothby and the state seat of Caulfield. For this reason, i dont think the Teals can win Higgins or Sturt either as they are more mixed seats where there is a decent left-wing vote even though those suburbs have Tealish small l liberal suburbs. I do agree that a Teal will appeal in the affluent Riverside suburbs of Moreton but they will have little if any appeal in the rest of the seat which is much less well off.

    9. @Yoh An Yes, the majority opposition to expanding Kennedy came out of the Katter Party. Bob Katter likes to reference the size of Kennedy, but it’s actually only the sixth largest. It’s not even the largest electorate in Queensland – that honour goes to Maranoa.
      Reducing Leichardt to “Cairns and a bit” gives you more sensible boundaries all the way down the coast except for Townsville which would need to be split. It makes it easier to align the Federal electorates with the Local Government boundaries, so Dawson would end up with Mackay and The Whitsundays for example.
      That also fixes the problem of Kennedy dipping into and out of the coastal areas at Innisfail and the Townsville suburbs.
      Noosa’s location in Wide Bay is an anomaly – although I’m sure most residents would prefer it as its own Federal electorate. It’s the natural consequence of breaking “communities of interest” all along the Queensland coast. Queensland is currently sitting at the halfway point for an additional seat, so by the time the numbers are called I think that the current growth will push it to 31 and it will almost certainly be added on the Sunshine Coast.

    10. @gympie “Labor voters are incredibly disciplined, perhaps 1 in 200 doesn’t follow the HTV. By comparison, anywhere from 5 to 15% of Greens voters end up preferencing LNP over Labor.”
      Not even close. Labor voters in Queensland average around 85 percent sticking to the HTV, although that also includes OPV for State elections. Greens run anywhere between 60 and 80 percent that follow the HTVs, depending on the seat. The gold standard used to be the National Party, which had a 93 percent HTV follow through. The worst is One Nation, who seem to mostly ignore the official HTV and return to their tribe for preferencing.

    11. Mark – I also read there was opposition to the Kennedy/Leichhardt split from Cape York communities, who argue that there is a closer connection between these areas and Cairns compared to inland communities dominated in Kennedy. Although I do agree that fixing this will be better than having all other regional cities being split up.

    12. @Nether Portal
      I think that The Greens will build on their win in Brisbane and are likely to retain it after the next redistribution.
      Depending on what happens within the ALP I think Moreton is very much in play, but not for the Teals.
      Petrie won’t shift, but a lot of that is due to changing demographics. The tradie vote in Petrie and Longman is huge, so voters who would normally side with the ALP as employees have a different perspective when they become self-employed. Petrie also has an increasing religious base as well as significant South African and New Zealand imports who are gradually becoming citizens and eligible to vote.
      Bonner could be susceptible to a change but there are also significant demographic changes happening to the western part of the electorate and massive gentrification occurring along the waterfront areas in both Brisbane and Redlands.
      I’d add Leichardt to the list as a possible ALP pickup because Entsch is retiring.

    13. @Yoh An The main argument was that TSI and Cairns Airport were connected, which a) is true; b) doesn’t really mean a lot considering the small size of the communities north of Cairns. Looking at the booth results from the last election (https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-168.htm) most of the counting is handled by the various Remote Mobile Teams. That’s a total of 2,293 votes plus 143 for Horn Island, 1,565 for Weipa, 1,003 for Thursday Island and 423 for Bamaga. The Remote Mobile Teams fly in on a specified day, so if you think about it as a 1-day prepoll you’re pretty much there.
      Having said that I once calculated the vote split in the island communities between the 2012 State vote (the best LNP result) and the last Federal result. There was a huge personal vote for Warren Entsch and his office really does work those communities hard, even basing their second electorate office on Thursday Island.

    14. @Yoh An That would mean that Kennedy would probably lose Charters Towers and Cassowary Coast councils and retreat out of suburban Cairns and Townsville. So Kennedy wouldn’t touch the sea until north of Cairns. Kuranda OR Port Douglas would probably be the new boundaries and the southern border with Warrego would move south, allowing Warrego to expand east and take some of the overflow from Groom. That also allows Townsville to be split into two electorates, north and south.

    15. @Nimalan yeah I’ll make another federal map when the redistribution is released. In the mean time, I’ll update my NSW state map and I’ll make some maps for other states and territories.

    16. On North Queensland there are basically two approaches:
      1. Do nothing – Kennedy, Leichhardt and Herbert are all basically on quota – 1.0% or less either way.
      2. Try and clean up the coastal Qld regional city boundary mess. One possible way would be to move Mount Isa and Cloncurry to Maranoa. Then Kennedy to pick up the Dawson voters in Townsville. Kennedy becomes – partly – the second Townsville seat. And then rejig everything else down the NSW border. You would need to find new homes for Warwick and/or Kingaroy.

      From previous experience both the AEC and the Katter clan would prefer Option 1.

    17. @Redistributed what might happen with Groom? Will it become entirely Toowoomba-based or will it retain the rural areas around it like Gatton?

    18. @Redistributed
      Spot on. Although I’d be inclined to keep Mount Isa in Kennedy and possibly even go down to Winton, because otherwise the numbers get too difficult. Kennedy could lose Charters Towers to the South Townsville seat and the Cassowary Coast and gumboot country to North Townsville. South Townsville would get Burdekin and Dawson would be Mackay and The Whitsundays.
      Warwick and Kingaroy would fit into Wide Bay once Noosa comes out. So you’d have an Outer Sunshine Coast Region of Gympie, Maryborough, Kingaroy and Nanango. Or you could add Hervey Bay to Wide Bay and move Flynn west to the South Burnett and pick up Kingaroy there.

      @Nether Portal Toowoomba is getting too big to fit the regional areas into Groom. The recent Council election had an enrolment of 108,630 and the city is commuting distance from Brisbane.

    19. @Mark Yore if Groom does become Toowoomba plus, then independents like Suzie Holt would fair better as her vote was largely concentrated in the city.

    20. Groom is almost 4% under quota as of the February figures. Maranoa is almost 6% under. Wright and Blair are of course substantially over. It feels like heresy but maybe the best outcome is for Groom to come down the range a bit so that Maranoa can take Oakey and Pittsworth and co… as opposed to expanding into the Burnett region, or Mt Isa.

      Of course by the time this redistribution happens Qld will probably be able to claim its 31st seat, so that’d put Groom at or just under quota as-is.

      Either way the next Qld redistribution promises to be just as much of a painful mess as the last one.

    21. I agree that Groom should still remained centered on Toowoomba as its primary community of interest but come down the range and take on some of the Lockyer Valley. Blair and Wright need to be drastically reworked. Reorienting Forde is probably also going to be a factor in that jigsaw puzzle. But you’re right, just ONE MORE DIVISION will surely make life easier.

    22. @Mark Yore a few things I’ll note though:

      1. Warwick is in the far south (it’s southwest of Toowoomba) so I don’t know how it could fit into Wide Bay with Kingaroy.
      2. Dawson is already Mackay and the Whitsundays.

      @AlexJ Maranoa could easily take in the Somerset Valley from Blair which would make Blair an Ipswich-based seat, but it would mean the LNP wouldn’t be as competitive there as they were when it included the Somerset Valley (towns in the Somerset Valley (like Esk) are rural and strongly vote LNP).

    23. I took a more detailed look at the February figures for Qld. It’s a bit moot of course since there won’t be a redistribution before the election. But all these problems should look pretty similar 15 months from now.

      Leichhardt + Kennedy + Herbert are all very close to quota, no changes needed per se.

      Dawson + Capricornia + Flynn are all way under, collectively about 18% under.

      Hinkler is a little over, Wide Bay is fractionally under.

      Fairfax + Fisher are collectively about 14% over so could in theory resolve the issues to their north on their own.

      Longman, Petrie and Brisbane are collectively 23% over while Dickson, Lilley and Ryan are collectively 16% under. So the Northside internal issues are resolvable but there’s a need to export some population.

      Bonner, Moreton and Rankin are collectively 26% under, with Griffith slightly over, Bowman and Oxley slightly under.

      Blair + Wright + Forde are collectively 26% over.

      Maranoa and Groom are collectively about 9% under.

      So in terms of subregions we need to get the Brisbane Northside excess population into the Darling Downs and the SEQ SW into SE Brisbane.

    24. @Nether Portal 1) Dawson is about half of Mackay, most of The Whitsundays except for Collinsville, all of Burdekin and part of Townsville. Taking it south and west would expand into the gap south of Sarina and west of Finch Hatton, add Collinsville and lose anything north of Gumlu. 2) Sorry, you’re right. I was thinking of Nanango, not Warwick.

      Also one thing I did forget was the population projections for Greater Springfield, currently split between Oxley, Blair and a little bit of Wright. It’s projected to grow to 105,000 people by 2030; but that’s BEFORE the changes outlined in the updated Shaping SEQ planning document.

      Why does the planning document matter? Because it’s a relatively short-term outcome (2046) with most of the changes front-loaded. I’m currently in Rochedale, right on the Brisbane side of the border with Logan. My block is 2 hectares and currently going through the delights of dealing with BCC on a Development Application. Right now it has one house on it. The application adds another 8 house blocks and 17 town houses.

      Come July 1 when all SEQ have to have their planning policies amended to match the State Planning Policy, that capacity will go up to somewhere between 80 and 160 three-storey dwellings as a High Amenity area. If we look at the amendments in the Kurilpa (West End) plan the height limit goes from 32 storeys to 274 metres (the aviation height limit in the CBD).

      By 2046 the plan is to have an extra 2.2 million people in the Greater Brisbane Region requiring an extra 900,000 homes. https://planning.statedevelopment.qld.gov.au/planning-framework/plan-making/regional-planning/south-east-queensland-regional-plan

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