Senate – New South Wales – Australia 2025

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  1. I can’t comment on the main election guide so I’m commenting here.

    Everyone, predict which House seats you think will change parties at the next federal election.

  2. My predictions:

    Gilmore: Liberal GAIN from Labor
    Lingiari: Country Liberal GAIN from Labor
    Lyons: Liberal GAIN from Labor
    Paterson: Liberal NOTIONAL HOLD (redistribution)
    Tangney: Liberal GAIN from Labor

    I’m not entirely sure about Bennelong, Blair, Boothby, Deakin, Hasluck, Higgins, McEwen, Menzies, Pearce or Swan. I should note however that Eden-Monaro could be Liberal instead of Gilmore depending on redistribution (if Kiama is moved to Whitlam then Gilmore becomes a notional Liberal seat).

    Any seats I’ve missed? Share your early predictions here.

    And a bonus: here’s a random prediction for the 2027 NSW state election: it’s not for another three years but I’m already predicting the Liberals will regain South Coast and retain their very marginal seats of Holsworthy, Ryde and Terrigal.

    Many people including myself have predicted that Paterson will become a Liberal seat due to redistribution at the next federal election. What are your thoughts on the state seat of Port Stephens? The Port Stephens area is by far the most conservative in Newcastle (I’m gonna include the Port Stephens LGA as being part of Greater Newcastle), and it has voted Liberal many times before. The old boundaries for Paterson however were good for the Liberals because it included coastal and rural towns like Forster-Tuncurry (two twin towns on the Mid North Coast, the larger one being Forster on the south side of the river and Tuncurry being the smaller one on the north side), but they’ve since been moved to Lyne where the Nationals vote is really high (I grew up in that seat, as I’ve said before). The next redistribution likely won’t include Forster in Paterson, but something’s telling me that the Port Stephens area is drifting closer to the Liberals and away from Labor. The No vote in the referendum in Paterson was quite high. Any thoughts on that?

  3. the ones i think are “in play” are:
    Gilmore, Lyons, Lingiari, Bennelong, Higgins, Robertson, Tangney, McEwen, Paterson, Hunter, Parramatta, Blair, Dobell, Werriwa, Hasluck, Dunkley, Richmond, Macnamara, Macquarie, Eden-Monaro, Pearce, Swan, Deakin, Sturt, Menzies, Aston, Ryan, Brisbane, Curtin, Fowler, Mackellar, Goldstein, North Sydney, Kooyong. obviously not all these will change hands and but depending on when the federal election is we might get a sense of the outcome of some of these in the upcoming state elections.

  4. @nether portal i think paterson will become liberal as it is bound to lose labor voting areas and gain coalition voting ones. i think that seat is lost.


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