Senate – New South Wales – Australia 2025

I can’t comment on the main election guide so I’m commenting here.

Everyone, predict which House seats you think will change parties at the next federal election.

This is a Senate guide. “Which House seats will flip” isn’t the least bit on topic.

My predictions:

Gilmore: Liberal GAIN from Labor
Lingiari: Country Liberal GAIN from Labor
Lyons: Liberal GAIN from Labor
Paterson: Liberal NOTIONAL HOLD (redistribution)
Tangney: Liberal GAIN from Labor

I’m not entirely sure about Bennelong, Blair, Boothby, Deakin, Hasluck, Higgins, McEwen, Menzies, Pearce or Swan. I should note however that Eden-Monaro could be Liberal instead of Gilmore depending on redistribution (if Kiama is moved to Whitlam then Gilmore becomes a notional Liberal seat).

Any seats I’ve missed? Share your early predictions here.

And a bonus: here’s a random prediction for the 2027 NSW state election: it’s not for another three years but I’m already predicting the Liberals will regain South Coast and retain their very marginal seats of Holsworthy, Ryde and Terrigal.

Many people including myself have predicted that Paterson will become a Liberal seat due to redistribution at the next federal election. What are your thoughts on the state seat of Port Stephens? The Port Stephens area is by far the most conservative in Newcastle (I’m gonna include the Port Stephens LGA as being part of Greater Newcastle), and it has voted Liberal many times before. The old boundaries for Paterson however were good for the Liberals because it included coastal and rural towns like Forster-Tuncurry (two twin towns on the Mid North Coast, the larger one being Forster on the south side of the river and Tuncurry being the smaller one on the north side), but they’ve since been moved to Lyne where the Nationals vote is really high (I grew up in that seat, as I’ve said before). The next redistribution likely won’t include Forster in Paterson, but something’s telling me that the Port Stephens area is drifting closer to the Liberals and away from Labor. The No vote in the referendum in Paterson was quite high. Any thoughts on that?

@Ben Raue whoops sorry. I’ll comment somewhere else.

@Ben Raue I’ve moved my comments to the Lyons page.

the ones i think are “in play” are:
Gilmore, Lyons, Lingiari, Bennelong, Higgins, Robertson, Tangney, McEwen, Paterson, Hunter, Parramatta, Blair, Dobell, Werriwa, Hasluck, Dunkley, Richmond, Macnamara, Macquarie, Eden-Monaro, Pearce, Swan, Deakin, Sturt, Menzies, Aston, Ryan, Brisbane, Curtin, Fowler, Mackellar, Goldstein, North Sydney, Kooyong. obviously not all these will change hands and but depending on when the federal election is we might get a sense of the outcome of some of these in the upcoming state elections.

@nether portal i think paterson will become liberal as it is bound to lose labor voting areas and gain coalition voting ones. i think that seat is lost.

Liberal Senate ticket
1. Senator Andrew Bragg
2. Jessica Collins, a Lowy Institute researcher
3. Senator Hollie Hughes.
Media is describing Hughes’ spot as “unwinnable”. The Nationals will get their candidates slotted in between.

Given that Hughes was endorsed on the top of the ticket the last few times, and the fact that Dutton personally supported Hughes’ preselection, probably suggests that NSW is going against the tide by appointing slightly more moderate candidates unlike the extreme right in selecting Alex Antic in SA for the top ticket etc.

I think that predicting seats as possible gains or losses until after the redistribution is completed or until we have at least the proposed boundaries is ultra academic. My thinking in non NSW/VIC states follows-

SA – Boothby and Sturt
TAS – Lyons and Bass is always close
QLD – Leichardt, Blair, Griffith Brisbane Ryan, Moreton.
NT – even though there is a redistribution just starting both seats need watching.
ACT- only the Senate to see hiw David Pocock goes.

@Tommo9, I think it’s only once that Hughes was first and that was in 2019. Bragg was second in 2019. At least there’ll be one Liberal newcomer in the senate next term. The SA, Vic and QLD branches all have incumbents in their first two spots.

It’s quite mixed in other states. James Patterson is more hard right and he’s first on the next Victorian LNP ticket. Paul Scarr, more of a moderate, is first on the QLD ticket.

The winnable spots on the Coalition Senate ticket will be occupied by:

1. Andrew Bragg (LIB)
2. Jess Collins (LIB)
3. Perin Davey (NAT)

@Tommo9 I wouldn’t say that it’s a sign that the NSW Liberals are backing more moderate candidates at all. Whilst Bragg was selected to the top spot and did reach a quota in his own right, 63.57% of all preselection votes went to the other three candidates, Hughes being from the centre-right and Jess Collins & Lincoln Parker being from the conservatives. Given Hughes was fairly comfortably defeated by Collins, this is probably a sign of the factional dynamics in the NSW Liberals shifting, and in particular the decline of the centre-right and Alex Hawke’s influence, rather than a more moderate shift. Dutton backing Hughes isn’t particularly a factor to note here either, as he’s been endorsing the incumbents every preselection race.

@Votante Is James Paterson really hard right? I figured he was more libertarian, rather than akin to say Alex Antic. Where he aligns with Dutton most would be foreign & home affairs and defence.

In a sense, I see him in a similar light to Andrew Hastie. They both have similar outlooks on geopolitics and its impacts on Australia, but focus much less if at all on culture wars. Like how I foresee Hastie as the next Liberal PM, I foresee Paterson as the next leader of the Senate when the Coalition returns to office.

James Paterson isn’t a religious conservative, in fact he is agnostic. But he does focus somewhat on culture walls besides being a national security hawk, very clearly influenced from his IPA days. Hastie is a pretty much a slightly more religious version of Dutton. Sure, he doesn’t have Dutton’s baggage and is likely the next Lib leader after Dutton but he would be toxic in areas that Dutton himself is already doing poorly in so can’t really see how he would become PM if Dutton himself hasn’t already become PM.

WL, you’re saying Patterson is like Antic, and Patterson doesn’t focus much on culture wars. The logic you’re using seems to imply that Antic too doesn’t focus much on culture wars if he’s akin to Patterson, but I don’t think that reflects the reality of who Antic is. He lives for culture wars.

Patterson and Antic are both from the National Right faction, but their political focuses differ. Patterson is a national security hawk while Antic is a religious culture warrior on the crank fringe of the party.

Agree Babaluma, being from the conservative right faction does not necessarily mean an MP will be actively involved with ‘culture war’ rhetoric. I believe former NSW Premier Dom Perrottet was also from the conservative right faction, but as leader he stayed low and avoided engaging in both social justice and national security matters, preferring to focus on statewide development as a matter of priority.

Liberal here. I don’t know if James Patterson is “hard right” per se but he’s definitely hawkish and he isn’t a moderate. Alex Antic is a right-wing populist who focuses a lot on culture wars whereas Patterson doesn’t. Patterson has however been a vocal supporter of banning TikTok for security concerns.

Hughes is from the Centre-Right faction which is losing ground due to the departure of Scomo, the faction’s figurehead. Alex Hawke is a prominent member and he’s faced some issues from local branches in his safe seat of Mitchell in Sydney’s Hills District.

Factions are important in metropolitan branches of the Liberal Party as each faction controls some branches while other branches are mixed. The Centre-Right controls the Hills branches which is why the state members for Castle Hill and Kellyville are from the Centre-Right faction whereas the Moderate faction controls the branches in the Hornsby Shire hence why Berowra MP Julian Leeser and Hornsby MP Matt Kean are both Moderates. However, the Right faction has provided Tony Abbott and Katherine Deves in Warringah despite the Moderates providing James Griffin in the state seat of Manly, and the Centre-Right provided Scott Morrison in Cook and Right provided Simon Kennedy in Cook but the Moderates provided Mark Speakman in the state seat of Cronulla. Once you get out of Sydney you’ll find that more and more Liberal MPs are factionally unaligned.

@Yoh An agreed. Perrottet did not openly oppose World Pride which was organised and held in Sydney and he backed banning gay conversion therapy (whilst noting that such a ban would not prohibit religious teachings on sexuality).

States have more of a focus on infrastructure, development, transport, education, health, the state’s economy, etc whereas the federal government is the one that focuses on issues such as climate change targets, the federal economy, foreign affairs, defence, immigration and border security, etc.

As others have pointed out “climate wars” are present on the federal level but are absent on the state level in NSW as both parties have agreed on similar policies. Though this may be due to both the NSW Coalition (both Liberals and Nationals) and NSW Labor being more centrist than their federal counterparts. Sydney also lacks a high Greens vote which is present in Melbourne, Brisbane and Canberra.

@Wilson I was implying more the opposite in fact. Agree with Babaluma – they’re in the same faction, but are not alike. There’s an article from years back with Paterson (around the time he was first elected in 2016) detailing that his family is a Labor/Greens one with strong trade union links who would rarely if ever vote Liberal and would likely only ever vote for him personally below the line.

Even during the voice campaign while he confirmed he was voting no, he was not a strident campaigner against it. And with SSM, he was in favour.

@vontante nationals are in the 3rd spot from what i heard last night. she should consider running in the lower house.

@mike SA – Boothby and Sturt – agreed
TAS – Lyons and Bass is always close – i think bridget archer has bass under wraps especially since she has support and preferences from Lambie. i dont always agree with archer but hey she holds the seat and thats all that we require really
QLD – Leichardt, Blair, Griffith Brisbane Ryan, Moreton. agree
NT – even though there is a redistribution just starting both seats need watching. still the redistribution wont overally effect the boundaries and theres talk albo might go shortly after the wa election on the back of the win over there. so if he announces before its complete it wont take effect
ACT- only the Senate to see hiw David Pocock goes. – dunno the greens might give labor a run in the act

what are your thoughts on WA?

@WL, I would say Paterson is a rather unique Liberal Party Members as he is from the National Right Faction but his own personal views are rather strange as he supports and voted Yes for Gay Marriage but then flirts with Christian Right No voters on “religious freedom” probably explaining why he is described as a Libertarian.

WL, okay, but maybe it’s best not to say that Patterson is akin to Antic if you’re implying the opposite.

Wilson, I read WL’s post again and he/she mentioned the term ‘rather than akin to’ which would mean not equivalent. Therefore, the statement is correct that James Patterson’s views and personality do not coincide with Alex Antic.

Yoh An, thanks for the pickup, I read it as “rather akin to”. WL, my apologies.

Libertarian is in fact hard right

Mick, libertarianism spans from left from right depending on the specific type.

I believe the Liberals have three main factions. I saw on Wikipedia that James Patterson is from the hard right faction. People are right that he isn’t too involved in the culture wars. I do think he’s quite libertarian. Alex Antic is also from the hard right, though his focus is quite different and more populist, akin to One Nation.

@mic liberatarian is more centrist but leaning right

what are the odds of hollie hughes running in the lower house now she basically cant win a senate spot? if so where would she run

Very unlikely, she’s still on the Liberal NSW Senate ticket regardless of the near impossibility of her being able to win. In any case, as both the SMH and The Australian report, she’s made a public spat with accusations against Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor for “treachery” and “putting ambition ahead of the team”.

It’s interesting considering she’s seen as a conservative (she’s spruiked being the only NSW Liberal senator to actively campaign against the Voice for example) and backed by some at Sky (e.g. Paul Murray), but as mentioned by @oguh, likely due to belonging to Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre-right faction, which has been significantly diminished, lost out to the candidate from the conservative faction of which Angus Taylor is a part of…and whom I believe have a stability deal of sorts with the dominant moderates.

@WL yes but where abouts is she located? what electorate?

@john Shes lived in moree for 20+ years but lives on the north shore now apparently

Maybe Bradfield when paul fletcher retires

@maybe she could run in robertson or parramatta?