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A Redbridge poll for the 2024 NT general election has a huge lead for the CLP and all I can say is “holy shit”. The poll has Labor’s vote halved and would result in Lia Finocchiaro’s CLP winning in a landslide despite Dutton’s Coalition holding no federal NT seats, while Natasha Fyles’ Labor government would have their lowest vote share in history (and probably the lowest vote share the party has every received at a federal or state/territory election since Federation). Here were the voting intention results:
CLP: 40.6% (+9.3%)
Labor: 19.7% (-19.7%)
Independents: 14.0% (+3.3%)
Others: 24.8% (+6.2%)
To break down the “others” category:
Greens: 13.1% (+8.6%)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers: 9.4% (+9.4%)
Animal Justice: 2.4% (+2.3%)
The TPP estimate based on preference flows that I’ve calculated using an online tool gives the TPP result as:
CLP: 56.5% (+9.8%)
Labor: 43.5% (-9.8%)
Many are sceptical of Labor only receiving 19.7% of the vote, but there’s no way this poll was rigged or disproportionate enough to have otherwise given Labor the lead. It’s clear that the CLP have an increasingly good chance of winning the next election.
Despite that poll, the bookies still have Labor as favourites last time I checked.
Theres no way the CLP is only on 56% on TPP with a 21% gap on the primary vote, I suspect preferences will flow more strongly to the CLP under that scenario and will be something like 61-39 or so and the CLP would win all but 3 Labor held seats in my opinion since it won’t be uniform.
Based on the poll I’d be putting money on the clp.
I think the crime wave did play a part on why NT has a high No vote for Voice referendum and may also play a role on ALP losing NT
@Daniel T the reason the CLP’s 56% TPP and a 40.6% primary vote would be because the margin between the Labor primary vote and the Greens primary vote is much narrower than the margin between the CLP primary vote and the Labor primary vote. As everyone knows, Greens preferences overwhelmingly flow to Labor.
My understanding is that Albanese and Fyles are deeply unpopular in the NT.
In the impossible situation of a uniform swing, using the 9.8% swing from the last election (excluding by-elections) and overriding the TCP with a notional TPP margin (i.e CLP vs Labor), the pendulum would look like this:
Government — CLP:
Fannie Bay: 0.2%
Drysdale: 1.8%
Arafura: 6.2%
Fong Lim: 7.2%
Port Darwin: 7.9%
Blain: 9.6%
Barkly: 9.9%
Namatjira: 10.1%
Brennan: 11.0%
Braitling: 11.1%
Katherine: 12.1%
Daly: 11.0%
Araluen: 22.4%
Spillet: 24.0%
Goyder: 24.2%
Nelson: 32.6%
Opposition — Labor:
Casuarina: 6.1%
Gwoja: 6.4%
Johnston: 6.7%
Wanguri: 7.5%
Arnhem: 7.8%
Sanderson: 9.5%
Nightcliff: 14.5%
Even split:
Karama — 0.0%
Impossible to calculate:
Mulka — only two candidates ran in Mulka in 2020: the independent MP (Yingiya Mark Guyula) and a Labor candidate (Lynn Walker). The CLP ran in 2016 but not in 2020.
This would mean the CLP would gain Arafura, Drysdale, Fannie Bay, Fong Lim and Port Darwin from Labor (as well as possibly Karama which is currently on a 9.8% margin so a 9.8% swing would make it 0.0%), as well as three independent-held seats (Araluen, Blain and Goyder). Labor would ultimately be cut down to just seven seats, though none would be marginal. However, geographically it would mean that Labor has been almost wiped out everywhere except the Northern Suburbs of Darwin, with Arnhem and Gwoja being the only Labor-held seats outside Darwin.