|Term due to expire 2025||Term due to expire 2028|
|Nita Green (Labor)||Penny Allman-Payne (Greens)|
|Susan McDonald (Liberal National)||Matt Canavan (Liberal National)|
|Gerard Rennick (Liberal National)||Anthony Chisholm (Labor)|
|Malcolm Roberts (One Nation)||Pauline Hanson (One Nation)|
|Paul Scarr (Liberal National)||James McGrath (Liberal National)|
|Larissa Waters (Greens)||Murray Watt (Labor)|
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.
From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.
The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.
The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.
The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.
The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.
The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.
In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.
In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.
At the 2016 double dissolution election, Labor retained their four seats and the Greens retained their one seat. Lazarus was defeated, running on his own independent ticket, and the LNP lost their sixth seat, with both seats going to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts.
Roberts was removed from his seat in 2017 due to his possession of British citizenship when he was elected in 2016. He was replaced by third One Nation candidate Fraser Anning. He fell out with One Nation immediately and served out his term as an independent and as a member of a party he founded.
At the 2019 election, the Liberal National Party retained their two seats and gained a third (for a total of six) while Labor retained only one seat (for a total of three). The Greens retained their seat and Malcolm Roberts regained his seat from Fraser Anning.
At the 2022 election, the Greens won a second seat in addition to Larissa Waters for the first time, taking a seat away from the LNP.
|Indigenous – Aboriginal Party||32,841||1.1||+1.1||0.0763|
|Great Australian Party||24,262||0.8||+0.8||0.0564|
We can now fast forward to the last ten candidates contesting those last three seats:
- Penny Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9230 quotas
- Anthony Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7470
- Pauline Hanson (ON) – 0.5595
- Amanda Stoker (LNP) – 0.4909
- Bernard Bradley (LGC) – 0.4391
- Clive Palmer (UAP) – 0.3171
- Campbell Newman (LDP) – 0.1936
- Mackenzie Severns (AJP) – 0.1197
- Lionel Henaway (IAP) – 0.0975
- Jason Miles (GAP) – 0.0930
GAP preferences flowed most strongly to Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer, but generally scattered:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9285
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7503
- Hanson (ON) – 0.5865
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.4961
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4470
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3353
- Newman (LDP) – 0.1983
- Severns (AJP) – 0.1288
- Henaway (IAP) – 0.1024
Indigenous-Aboriginal Party preferences flowed to the Greens, Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice and Labor:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9518
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7648
- Hanson (ON) – 0.5865
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5040
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4636
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3425
- Newman (LDP) – 0.2008
- Severns (AJP) – 0.1451
Animal Justice preferences again favoured the Greens, bringing Allman-Payne closer to winning the fourth seat:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9874
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7813
- Hanson (ON) – 0.6073
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5173
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4926
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3578
- Newman (LDP) – 0.2053
Liberal Democrats preferences were most favourable to the LNP, but also helped One Nation, slightly narrowing the gap between One Nation and the LNP for sixth seat. Allman-Payne was also brought within just 32 votes of a quota.
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9999
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.8127
- Hanson (ON) – 0.6591
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5853
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.5016
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3808
United Australia preferences pushed the Greens over quota to win the fourth seat, but mostly flowed to One Nation, pushing Hanson into fifth place:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 1.0000
- Hanson (ON) – 0.8756
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.8529
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.6462
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.5360
Legalise Cannabis preferences scattered, slightly favouring Chisholm over Hanson but not by that much more than they flowed to Stoker:
- Hanson (ON) – 0.9957
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.9743
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.7197
Hanson and Chisholm both almost reached a full quota, but it didn’t matter since there were no preferences to distribute, and they were both elected with Stoker left as the last candidate excluded.
The final margin between Chisholm and Stoker was 0.2546 quotas.
Queensland has generally produced the most right-wing results in Senate elections for a long time. The Coalition managed to win four seats in 2004. In 2013, the LNP won three seats along with Glenn Lazarus of the Palmer United Party. The 2016 double dissolution election saw five LNP senators plus two One Nation senators elected. And in 2019 the LNP and One Nation won four seats between them.
That means the right will be defending four seats in 2025, as they were in 2022, and opens up an opportunity for the left to pick up a third seat if Labor can win a second seat without displacing a Greens member.
This means Queensland will be a defensive state for the right. Usually they have only won four seats in strong elections such as 2004, 2013 and 2019. Current polling suggests they won’t be in a position to win those seats in 2025.