Incumbent Senators
| Term due to expire 2025 | Term due to expire 2028 |
| Nita Green (Labor) | Penny Allman-Payne (Greens) |
| Susan McDonald (Liberal National) | Matt Canavan (Liberal National) |
| Gerard Rennick (Liberal National) | Anthony Chisholm (Labor) |
| Malcolm Roberts (One Nation) | Pauline Hanson (One Nation) |
| Paul Scarr (Liberal National) | James McGrath (Liberal National) |
| Larissa Waters (Greens) | Murray Watt (Labor) |
History
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.
From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.
The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.
The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.
The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.
The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.
The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.
In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.
In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.
At the 2016 double dissolution election, Labor retained their four seats and the Greens retained their one seat. Lazarus was defeated, running on his own independent ticket, and the LNP lost their sixth seat, with both seats going to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts.
Roberts was removed from his seat in 2017 due to his possession of British citizenship when he was elected in 2016. He was replaced by third One Nation candidate Fraser Anning. He fell out with One Nation immediately and served out his term as an independent and as a member of a party he founded.
At the 2019 election, the Liberal National Party retained their two seats and gained a third (for a total of six) while Labor retained only one seat (for a total of three). The Greens retained their seat and Malcolm Roberts regained his seat from Fraser Anning.
At the 2022 election, the Greens won a second seat in addition to Larissa Waters for the first time, taking a seat away from the LNP.
| Group | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Liberal National | 1,061,638 | 35.2 | -3.7 | 2.4658 |
| Labor | 744,212 | 24.7 | +2.1 | 1.7285 |
| Greens | 373,460 | 12.4 | +2.5 | 0.8674 |
| One Nation | 222,925 | 7.4 | -2.9 | 0.5178 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 161,899 | 5.4 | +3.6 | 0.3760 |
| United Australia | 126,343 | 4.2 | +0.7 | 0.2934 |
| Liberal Democrats | 75,158 | 2.5 | +1.7 | 0.1746 |
| Animal Justice | 38,765 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0900 |
| Indigenous – Aboriginal Party | 32,841 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.0763 |
| Great Australian Party | 24,262 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.0564 |
| Sustainable Australia | 19,146 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.0445 |
| Values Party | 18,194 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.0423 |
| Others | 115,025 | 3.8 | 0.2672 | |
| Informal | 97,166 | 3.1 |
Preference flows
Three seats were won on primary votes: two for the Liberal National Party and one for Labor.
We can now fast forward to the last ten candidates contesting those last three seats:
- Penny Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9230 quotas
- Anthony Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7470
- Pauline Hanson (ON) – 0.5595
- Amanda Stoker (LNP) – 0.4909
- Bernard Bradley (LGC) – 0.4391
- Clive Palmer (UAP) – 0.3171
- Campbell Newman (LDP) – 0.1936
- Mackenzie Severns (AJP) – 0.1197
- Lionel Henaway (IAP) – 0.0975
- Jason Miles (GAP) – 0.0930
GAP preferences flowed most strongly to Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer, but generally scattered:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9285
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7503
- Hanson (ON) – 0.5865
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.4961
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4470
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3353
- Newman (LDP) – 0.1983
- Severns (AJP) – 0.1288
- Henaway (IAP) – 0.1024
Indigenous-Aboriginal Party preferences flowed to the Greens, Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice and Labor:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9518
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7648
- Hanson (ON) – 0.5865
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5040
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4636
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3425
- Newman (LDP) – 0.2008
- Severns (AJP) – 0.1451
Animal Justice preferences again favoured the Greens, bringing Allman-Payne closer to winning the fourth seat:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9874
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7813
- Hanson (ON) – 0.6073
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5173
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4926
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3578
- Newman (LDP) – 0.2053
Liberal Democrats preferences were most favourable to the LNP, but also helped One Nation, slightly narrowing the gap between One Nation and the LNP for sixth seat. Allman-Payne was also brought within just 32 votes of a quota.
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9999
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.8127
- Hanson (ON) – 0.6591
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5853
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.5016
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3808
United Australia preferences pushed the Greens over quota to win the fourth seat, but mostly flowed to One Nation, pushing Hanson into fifth place:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 1.0000
- Hanson (ON) – 0.8756
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.8529
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.6462
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.5360
Legalise Cannabis preferences scattered, slightly favouring Chisholm over Hanson but not by that much more than they flowed to Stoker:
- Hanson (ON) – 0.9957
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.9743
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.7197
Hanson and Chisholm both almost reached a full quota, but it didn’t matter since there were no preferences to distribute, and they were both elected with Stoker left as the last candidate excluded.
The final margin between Chisholm and Stoker was 0.2546 quotas.
Assessment
Queensland has generally produced the most right-wing results in Senate elections for a long time. The Coalition managed to win four seats in 2004. In 2013, the LNP won three seats along with Glenn Lazarus of the Palmer United Party. The 2016 double dissolution election saw five LNP senators plus two One Nation senators elected. And in 2019 the LNP and One Nation won four seats between them.
That means the right will be defending four seats in 2025, as they were in 2022, and opens up an opportunity for the left to pick up a third seat if Labor can win a second seat without displacing a Greens member.
This means Queensland will be a defensive state for the right. Usually they have only won four seats in strong elections such as 2004, 2013 and 2019. Current polling suggests they won’t be in a position to win those seats in 2025.
The Queensland Senate results are “lively” in conjunction with the Reps 2PP for the state occasionally getting into the very low 40s for the left. Recall that three quotas is about 42.86% of the vote — and sure enough, in 2019 Labor’s 2PP was 41.56%, but in 2022 it was 45.95%.
(Meanwhile in WA the right seem to have converted poorly by this hypothesis. There was a 2PP of 45% in the Reps (3.15q) but Ben Small couldn’t get above half a quota and One Nation were pipped for 6th by Labor. To summarise, ON did well off UAP prefs, but both Cannabis and Liberal prefs helped Labor slightly.)
> if Labor can win a second seat without displacing a Greens member
The Greens seem to be getting pretty close to a quota in their own right. Both Allman-Payne and Waters were elected without Labor ATLs, though in Waters’ case she was fighting Labor for 6th and you could see a reversal there in a year more like 2013 than 2019.
Labor haven’t cracked 2 half-Senate quotas on primary vote since 2013. If that does happen again, as long as the Greens can stay above 0.7 quotas you’d expect them to at least be competitive. (Those results are similar to NSW last year.)
As much as I don’t think it will happen, nothing would please me more than to see Rennick and Roberts turfed out of the Senate. These two have been nothing but toxic for political discourse.
@hawkeye you’ll be happy to know then that rennick lost preselection on July 8
It seems Labor has motivation to try to win 2 senate quotas here, partly to limit the LNP from getting their third seat, but also as part of their efforts to improve their HoR primary vote which has barely recovered from their 2019 battering.
I wrote in last year’s QLD senate thread that One Nation’s days may be numbered (unless there’s a double dissolution). One Nation’s vote went backward at both the federal and state election, but Hanson managed to get in with half a quota. This is despite a personal brand and name recognition as the leader, pandemic-fueled sentiment, and preference flows from UAP and LDP. There’s also the implosion of ON in NSW (Mark Latham has quit the party). I read that James Ashby is in line for a Senate spot. Either he jostles with Malcolm Roberts for preselection or Hanson retires and lets Ashby replace her.
At this rate, LNP will pick up the 3rd seat unless a minor party like UAP or even Legalise Cannabis miraculously gets it.
I was meant to say “LNP will pick up [their] 3rd seat”, otherwise a minor party will win a seat at their expense. This will create a scenario of LNP 2 (if not 3), ALP 2, GRN 1, OTH 1 (if not 0).
Votante I reckon it will be tr same as it is now lnp 3onp 1 1 Labor and 1 green. The 2022 was an error due to Labor being in opposition and being in a strong position at a date level but given their position T a state and federal level federally I think they will return to the status quo result
What’s rub here if Rennick jumps on with Palmer or ON?