Queensland 2024

Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Queensland state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.

Most of this election guide is only available to people who chip in $5 or more per month via Patreon, but a small selection have been unlocked for free access. The free guides are listed further down this page.

Table of contents:

  1. Legislative Assembly seat profiles
  2. Free samples
  3. Contact

Legislative Assembly seat profiles

Seat profiles have been produced for all 93 Legislative Assembly electoral districts. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.

Free samples

Most of this election guide is only available to people who chip in $5 or more per month via Patreon, but a small selection have been unlocked for free access:

Contact

If you have a correction or an update for a single electorate page, feel free to post a comment. You can also send an email by using this form.

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    579 COMMENTS

    1. I think any Labor seat with a sub 10% margin is at risk of being lost. Likely LNP gains include Redlands, Aspley, Pine Rivers, Redcliffe, Springwood and Mansfield. Others potentially at risk are Mt Ommaney, Ferny Grove, Bancroft, Murrumba, Stafford and Macalister.

    2. Yougov polling today showing LNP ahead 57-43 I believe this will get worse for Labor ahead of the election

    3. There’s nothing Steven Miles can do now. He may as well be running Rishi Sunak’s “stop Labour’s supermajority” campaign (with Labour changed to the LNP). I mean he already did a Zak Kirkup by saying the result we all know will occur but you can’t just concede. That’s like if my team’s losing in sport and I say “I give up supporting you, you’re losing”, you just can’t do it. Even if your sports team is losing you have to support them, even if it’s 100–0 (not a realistic score in any sport by the way though it has happened on rare occasions).

    4. The size of the LNP majority will be decided by undecided voters, and interestingly my immediate family who live in QLD are undecided voters and like the ”50c transport thing” and some rebate on batteries, voted for the LNP in 2020. So I think some of these policies aren’t designed to make the election competitive. But just prevent a complete wipeout like 2012.

      Had it not been for things like the 50c transport and rebate on solar batteries, then I suspect Labor would be trailing 60-40 potentially.

      Perhaps these policies they are just trying to stop the Greens taking seats in Brisbane? I can see the solar rebate and the 50c transport doing them huge favors in places like South Brisbane for example. (not necessarily enough to win). Mad Max should be worried in Griffith next year if Federal Labor were to introduce/trial these policies next year.

    5. @Nicholas

      Already: Everton, Clayfield, Moggill, Chatsworth, Ooodgeroo, Ipswich West

      Definite: Pumicestone, Redcliffe, Aspley, Mansfield, Redlands

      Likely: Bancroft, Pine Rivers, Ferny Grove, Lytton, Capalaba, Springwood, Macalister, Mount Ommaney

      Decent possibility: Kurwongbah, Murrumba, Stafford, Maiwar, Bulimba, Logan

      Low possibility: Nudgee, Cooper, McConnel, Greenslopes, Miller, Toohey, Stretton

      No chance: Morayfield, Sandgate, South Brisbane, Waterford, Woodridge, Algester, Inala, Jordan, Bundamba, Ipswich

    6. SCart, Why is Ipswich ”No Chance” and why is Kurwongbah ”Decent possibility”? You are overestimating Labor in those 2.

      Lytton is a tossup. This is not natural LNP territory and you do realize people are reading way too much into the council results which mean fudge all to state and federal politics.

      Here would be mine:

      Safe LNP: None

      Likely LNP: Everton, Clayfield, Chatsworth, Springwood, Ferny Grove, Bancroft, Capalaba, Redlands

      Leans LNP: Pine Rivers, Pumicestone, Moggil (Against Greens), Redcliffe, Aspley, Mansfield, Ooodgeroo, Ipswich West, Kurwongbah, Macaslister

      Tilt LNP: Ipswich, Mount Ommaney, Murrumba, Lytton

      Tilt ALP: Logan

      Leans ALP: Stretton, McConnel (Against Greens), Cooper (Against Greens), Nudgee, Stafford

      Likely ALP: Greenslopes (Against Greens), Toohey, Sandgate, Bundamba, Jordan, Bulimba, Morayfield

      Safe ALP: Inala, Waterford, Woodridge, Algester, Miller (3-Way Race)

      Some Extra Seats:

      Safe LNP: Glass House, Ninderry, Buderim, Maroochydore, Kawana, Nicklin, Gympie, Nanango, Warrego, Toowoomba North, Toowoomba South, Scenic Rim, Lockyer, Southern Downs, Gregory, Condamine, Callide, Burnett, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Southport, Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Beach, Broadwater, Bonney, Mudgeeraba, Bundaberg, Mackay

      Likely LNP: Townsville, Mundingburra, Barron River, Coomera, Burleigh, Currumbin, Theodore, Caloundra, Hervey Bay, Keppel
      Leans LNP: Noosa (Against Independent), Maryborough, Thuringowa (3-Way Race), Cairns (Due To Controversy With Entsch’s Wife I Have This Closer)
      Tilt LNP: Cook, Mulgrave
      Tilt ALP: None
      Leans ALP: Gladstone

      Safe OTH: Traegar, Hill
      Likely OTH: Hinchinbrook, South Brisbane
      Leans OTH: Maiwar, Mirani

      There Folks, All 93 Seats.

    7. I don’t think Miles has been running a Kirkup or Sunak style “we know we’ve lost but please take pity on us” campaign since the one media cycle a few months ago. Labor have actually been fighting on policies like the 50c fares. To an extent that also serves to cut short the honeymoon of any new government, but it’s also a policy agenda, and a sign that they haven’t given up.

      As I’ve said in other posts, even with the tide going out on Labor, sandbagging and other parties picking up lost ALP votes that don’t go blue after preferences or hung parliament negotiations (the Greens in Brisbane, maybe KAP in the North) could stop an outright loss, and maybe Miles hangs on the way Bligh did in 2009.

    8. Question on the politics of abortion in Queensland:

      The impression I’m getting is that Labor is very open about their pro-choice stance. Even some MPs in more conservative parts of the state aren’t shying away from it.

      The LNP on the other hand, while having voted overwhelmingly against the 2018 bill, seems to be almost afraid of the issue. Crisafulli has said he will not seek to change the laws.

      What this suggests to me is that Labor figures it has something to gain and little to lose by presenting itself unequivocally as pro-choice and pushing the narrative that abortion rights may be undermined by an LNP government. The LNP, it would seem, while having a caucus that is very pro-life, believes it is politically harmful to talk about the issue. Are they afraid that there are many would-be LNP voters who may be turned off by an anti-abortion stance? Are they afraid of causing rifts within the party itself? If these hypotheses are true, I would take it as indicating that public opinion in Queensland is very strongly in favour of abortion rights. That would be consistent with what polls in the past have generally found nationwide. But I would be interested to know how the numbers vary by demographic and party support in Queensland.

      I also note how this compares to the abortion debate in NSW. NSW Labor was much more divided than QLD Labor. Conversely, there was much greater support among NSW Liberal MPs for decriminalisation than among LNP MPs.

    9. i am always of the view that issues such as Abortion and Euthansia are matters of conscience vote and i really hope we dont see the Americanisation of Australian politics on culture wars such as Abortion. I dont think NSW Labor can win Pittwater or Vaucluse by championing Abortion nor can the NSW Libs win Bankstown or Blacktown by emphasizing being Pro-Life. In QLD, can Labor win Mogill by talking about Abortion? I will let others answer this question
      In the Wright thread, i mentioned that ONP voters are typically non-religious and the % who never attend Church even for weddings and funerals is higher than the General Public.

      https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/27/looking-back-and-angry-what-drives-pauline-hansons-voters

    10. I hope you are right, @Nimalan.

      After a lot of soul searching, I’ve come to realise over the years that I align more with the Liberals than with the left-of-centre parties. The sticking point for me is that on some of the more contentious social and cultural issues of our time, including abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, I am not a conservative. That being said, I’m not really a progressive either – I’m more of a libertarian, so some of my views are quite nuanced. I’d like to get more involved in politics, and once I’m in Queensland, that would mean getting involved with the LNP. I wonder if there’s a place for me there despite my differences on these issues.

    11. @ Nicholas
      Abortion and Euthanasia have not got as much attention in Australia as say the US where it is a political fault line. In QLD, it may the case that the LNP is willing to loose affluent seats such as Clayfield and Mogill to possibly win Rockhampton and Mackay. QLD is different to Australia since 52% of the population live outside Brisbane. It makes less sense in my state of Victoria where 78% of the population live in cosmopolitan city and the next 3 largest cities are increasingly progressive with tree changers. So Victorian Liberals obsessions with culture wars seems suicidely stupid. While many Labor seats, have a high religious population these areas are very CALD and they are not right wing on other matters such as immigration, refugees, welcome to country, flags etc. Shared Social values do not equal electoral success in the right areas after the SSM vote Labor did not go on to win the 2019 election nor did the Liberals win Blaxland, Watson etc, Labor is not going to win Fairfax, Fisher or Flinders since they voted strongly for SSM.

    12. @Nimalan, I wonder how would the Voice Referendum directly or indirectly affect Small Liberal Votes on Dutton especially seats where the Yes Vote is bigger than the LNP TPP vote (e.g. Kooyong)

    13. @marh
      I dont think it will make much of a difference tbh. Malcom Turnbull said prior to the referendum that these sort of constitutional issues are sui generis. By the same token Chris Ullmann said that the liberals should not excited as the No vote is not a vote for them. We can see at Dunkley by election it didn’t not seem to have any impact. likewise the libs are not going to win Spence even though it voted strongly No.

    14. Turnbull never even wanted a referendum, He was forced to by his own party and the Nationals, It politically damaged him in the eyes of Teals and Labor voters. But any political junkie like myself knows he was forced. He would have favored a parliamentary vote.

    15. @Nimilan, not necessarily saying The Voice is the only direct factor although it can still indirect as Dutton moving to more Right-Wing populist territory might still affect the voting pattern although not heavily. Similarly The Voice Referendum would ironically rather create indirect affects with some Labor No Voters consider swinging to Dutton.

    16. Also Ben, why did you force my comments to only be approved by you? Was it because of what I said on the Spain thread. If so I apologize and won’t post like that again.

      Back to Queensland, I think the LNP are making a mistake on being small-target while being this far ahead in the polls. There is no reason for them to worry at this stage if 57-43 is anything to go by. I highly doubt an ambitious campaign will scare off too many voters. If they set out a clear vision and deliver on it, then I think it will ensure them 3 terms that many talk about.

      Tony Abbott federally was effective and often ranked the best opposition leader despite his unpopularity because he didn’t just say the Labor government was a bad government, but told the people why and set out a vision, even though many people such as myself disagreed with it. He was extremely effective.

      On the other hand Crisafulli is just assuming Labor will tear itself to shreds and gets in and then sets out a vision, this won’t cost him the election, but certainly could cost him 2028 (perhaps his majority)

      I have a sneaky feeling the Victorian Liberals are going to try to do the same thing, Might want to learn from Abbott on delivery and message rather than ”policy”

    17. @ Marh
      I think it will one reason to prevent a recovery for the Libs in the Teal seats may not affect the notional TPP and give Monique Ryan an edge over Amelia Hamer. In terms of white working class voters moving to Dutton from Labor due to the voice it is certainly possible in a seat like Paterson, Blair, Lyons etc which are all competitive. However, i think other seats like Makin, Spence, Brand have too big of a margin so i dont think Libs will bother there although some fool on Sky after Dark will suggest the Libs campaign in Spence.

    18. A Facebook group called “Bring Back the QLD Nats” seems to be planning to make a new party, to be registered next week, called the “New Country Party”. They say they will target Callide, Condamine, Gregory, Gympie, Southern Downs, Nanango and Warrego. They attribute the LNP’s support of Net Zero and Renewable energy as a main region to create the party. Treaty is also seen as an issue. Main policies seem to be rural and regional focused, including “Royalties for the Regions (Health, Education, Roads), Fair Laws for Farmers, Affordable [and] Reliable Energy, Property & Individual Rights and Water Security.” They talk a lot about essentially restarting the pre-LNP National Party.

      I see it going a few ways. They could take votes of the LNP and become a serious threat in the regions (similar to the SFF party in NSW 2019). If One Nation preferences them, and they take enough votes off the LNP, they could be a serious threat. I don’t see Labor preferencing them because of the ideological differences. They could also send preferences through to One Nation in seats that have large enough urban centres (Gympie and Nanango). Or they could just become a vote split for One Nation voters and have very little impact.

    19. Oh also apparently the “formalities” of the party will be sorted out by Monday. Also, it’s run by Terry Wilke, a farmer from Biloela, so he’ll probably be the candidate for Callide if it all gets registered.

    20. I thought the New Country Party already existed in other states?

      Anyway they won’t pick up any seats and their preferences will end up going to the LNP anyway.

    21. More dogs and cats on the right.
      FWIW – the LNP merger was a disaster as it gave much greater prominence to the likes of Matt Canavan and Gerard Rennick and largely sidelined Liberal moderates in Brisbane. And it now has undue influence in the Coalition whilst being repellant to large numbers of voters in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

    22. New Country Party would argue that the LNP is too Brisbane-focused or too Labor-like. I doubt they’ll get much traction given the competition from One Nation and KAP. I don’t think an LNP de-merger will happen anytime soon given their almost certain state election victory.

    23. Sounds like New Country Party will just be another failed splinter group given the low social media following given even Australian Conservatives and Liberal for Trees failed despite have founded by higher profile individuals.

    24. @Votante that would be a silly argument given that they only have five state seats in Brisbane. In contrast they have all but one on the Gold Coast, all but two on the Sunshine Coast, all the agricultural rural seats other than the KAP seats and one seat in Ipswich (Ipswich West). Their main targets are in the outer suburbs of Brisbane and in North Queensland (the LNP will sweep Townsville and Cairns).

    25. @ Votante on the topic of a potential de-merger of the LNP, they’re sure to reintroduce OPV when they get elected in October and that will make the prospects of it even less likely. If it was ever going to happen I think it would have happened already.

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