Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Queensland state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
This entire guide is now unlocked for everyone to access.
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Table of contents:
Legislative Assembly seat profiles
Seat profiles have been produced for all 93 Legislative Assembly electoral districts. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
Contact
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@ john
Maybe it should be censored on.the internet. Dangerous Material. Ha ha
Pick a quite time and you should be able to see it fine . overseas
Quiet
Can I ask that we have less of I think x will win in with. No factual information to back up claim.
Current opinion polls show alp to retain approx 30 seats. Ie they lose roughly 20. If as others are postulating they lose seats on higher margins than. 9% then they will retain seats on lower margins that is just pure maths.
On the basis of the polls I.would suspect alp 25 to 35 best. Which seats fall where is in the lap of the gods. People can argue but.no one really knows. Should Labor improve a couple of.percent then the sums will be.better. Also the extent that a.large swing occurs in a seat that does not change member will effect the inate sums. Eg a 13% swing.against Labor in.Warrego makes no difference to the tally.
@ a Jackson
See my latest post no one really knows except. With 9% swing you would not expect Labor to.hold Bundaberg all things being equal. The real guestimate is those 5 to 10% alp margins seats as some one else said they are the ” toss ups “
Reading The Australian today, front page David Crisafulli resigned as director of a training company 2 days after … something … something …
I stopped reading.
Elsewhere some journo reckons Albo’s house purchase is a good indicator he won’t contest the 2028 election.
I gave up.
If that’s what passes for Right Wing journalism, i’d be fearful of opening a left wing rag.
@Real Talk even Miles admits that coal royalties can’t/won’t be funding the school lunches, and the only they will be funded is by borrowing more and going further into debt.
@Scart
Thank you. I checked a couple of different sources and as you indicated it will be funded by borrowing. I was mistaken and appreciate the opportunity to be corrected. Apologies too to @John
Why do people believe the opinion polls over what we are actually hearing on the ground? Opinion polls are usually wrong by at least 2-3% so while in theory it could be a tight election, on the other end it’s a big landslide which is what most people on here are predicting including myself.
The early voting exit polls don’t lie, nor do the Queenslanders with chainsaws at the polling places, nor do the victims of youth crime.
Labor will fit their caucus into a London Taxi after the election, and I will eat my hat if I’m wrong.
The ECQ has added the daily voter count to the website. https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/excel_doc/0031/84568/SGE-Daily-InPerson-Attendance_161024.xlsx
McConnel and Hervey Bay appear to be way above the average.
Dan Dan Dan
You are getting carried away… opinion polls are normally quiet accurate not 2 to 3 % out
There are good reasons to.be wary of the exit polls
See discussion on pollbludger.
Ps : bet you don’t wear a hat
McConnel and Hervey Bay appear to be way above the average.
Means the swing is on.
@Wilson I agree with you on conformity with Federal voting, but the perfect is the enemy of the good.
One of the particular problems in Queensland is that no-one can read a calendar, because when the legislation was changed to 4 year terms for the State the desirability of avoiding having both Council and State elections in the same year wasn’t discussed. Adding in a Federal election that comes around every three years means that once every 12 years we’ll have three elections in twelve months.
The informal rate for the Inala and Ipswich West by-elections almost doubled compared to the same seats in the 2020 election. Disenfranchising voters by confusing them should be avoided.
Personally I wouldn’t mind one Local Government three-year term just to break the cycle. That would put the elections roughly 18 months apart.
@Real Talk Mining companies ARE taxpayers, and mining royalties are NOT some type of magic pudding that can continue to provide cash for government thought bubbles.
Push them hard enough and eventually they’ll put their capital into somewhere or something else.
Much like investors are doing with the rental housing market.
@Mark Yore
Even better than a single three year term for local government would be two of them, followed by a reset to four years.
If we had a three year term in 2024-27, followed by 2027-30, it would then neatly place local government elections around halfway between the state terms. You could even align it perfectly by mandating the last Saturday in October for local elections, just as we do now for the state elections, so long as they were two years apart from each other.
@Real Talk, that would be my preferred option, but it would be better to make both of them the last Saturday in October. March is still cyclone season in North Queensland and it’s a very SEQcentric approach to not take that into account.
Perhaps move it to the last Saturday of October for the previous year in the first election and then make it a three-year term for the second before restoring it to a four year term.
I assume you mean high rates of prepoll voting
People will more and more prepoll how does this mean the swing is on?
Mining companies are not taxpayers humans are.
Has anyone checked how much subsidy they get from state and Federal govts?
@Mick Quinlivan
While there’s a slight bias for early voting in holiday areas (because more people work on the weekends) early voting significantly above the average indicates that people are making a decisive move. That’s also what happens when there are large numbers of people arriving early on election day.
If there’s no desire for change then people wander in when they feel like it. It becomes much more of a turn up when you feel like it approach. There also generally lower turnouts.
When you have adjoining seats recording different early voting patterns it’s generally because there is a desire to change and there is a likelihood to change. People don’t feel enthused if they’re in a 15% seat, unless they’ve replaced their baseball bats with chainsaws.
Lnp needs more money so will lift bans on.political donations by property developers . Old Joh would have been proud of this!
Few more bags of money?
.
@Mick Quinlivan Happy to listen to you on why donations from property developers are quantitively worse than donations from lawyers, lobbyists and unions.
It’s interesting looking at the 2pp swings to Labor by seat at the 2022 federal election, relative to the state average (4.4% to Labor). They range from Lilley (a hefty 9.9% to Labor) to Herbert (3.4% to LNP, the only seat in Qld that swung against Labor). Most were in the 3-5% bracket. The seats with the five largest swings (7-10%) form a contiguous block: Lilley, Brisbane, Ryan, Griffith and Moreton, so that could be a good proxy for “inner suburbs” vs “outer suburbs”.
(The next highest swings were interesting: Groom, where an independent somehow made the 2cp from 8% primary vote, and Capricornia, which was correcting for a monster swing against Labor in 2019).
So, assume a 10% swing against Labor on average across Queensland, which seems in line with most polling. Now assume the swings differ from each other in a similar way to the federal election (so, inner Brisbane 3-5% better for Labor than the state average, Townsville 7% worse). So now you get Labor losing Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra with swings approaching 20%, but getting surprisingly mild swings (5%-ish) in inner Brisbane.
Labor or Green state seats in that five-division block include: Sandgate, Nudgee, Stafford, Ferny Grove, Cooper, Maiwar, McConnel; South Brisbane, Bulimba, Greenslopes, Miller, Toohey, Stretton. Most of those have margins far enough above 10% anyway, but it could make the difference in Stafford, Ferny Grove, Cooper and McConnel. (Note that I’m just talking about ALP v LNP 2pp; Labor can still lose some of those seats to the Greens.) It might also mean below-average swings to the LNP in Everton, Moggill and Clayfield, although I doubt they’ll lose them.
@ bird
That is my point if av swing say 9% some swing more then some will swing less
For all we know a seat like Barron River or Townsville could swing +20% to the LNP but South Brisbane could swing +1% to the LNP (vs Greens). That’s a big range.
@Bird – this is what I think will happen. The real question on my mind is how the outer suburbs seats will go.. Mansfield, Mt Ommaney, Aspley etc. Labor’s path to victory is non uniform swings leading to Liberal overkill being outmatched by Labor wafers and sandbagging.
im backing the LNP in McConnel and Greenslopes probably one term mps though but hey make me some money
Okay I can’t keep on top of all of these comments so I’m going to lock this thread.