Queensland 2024

What seats do people think will flip to the LNP in Greater Brisbane?

I think any Labor seat with a sub 10% margin is at risk of being lost. Likely LNP gains include Redlands, Aspley, Pine Rivers, Redcliffe, Springwood and Mansfield. Others potentially at risk are Mt Ommaney, Ferny Grove, Bancroft, Murrumba, Stafford and Macalister.

@yoh an agreed

Yougov polling today showing LNP ahead 57-43 I believe this will get worse for Labor ahead of the election

@trump I think 57-43 is about the full extent in realistic terms but that’s still a wipeout

There’s nothing Steven Miles can do now. He may as well be running Rishi Sunak’s “stop Labour’s supermajority” campaign (with Labour changed to the LNP). I mean he already did a Zak Kirkup by saying the result we all know will occur but you can’t just concede. That’s like if my team’s losing in sport and I say “I give up supporting you, you’re losing”, you just can’t do it. Even if your sports team is losing you have to support them, even if it’s 100–0 (not a realistic score in any sport by the way though it has happened on rare occasions).

The size of the LNP majority will be decided by undecided voters, and interestingly my immediate family who live in QLD are undecided voters and like the ”50c transport thing” and some rebate on batteries, voted for the LNP in 2020. So I think some of these policies aren’t designed to make the election competitive. But just prevent a complete wipeout like 2012.

Had it not been for things like the 50c transport and rebate on solar batteries, then I suspect Labor would be trailing 60-40 potentially.

Perhaps these policies they are just trying to stop the Greens taking seats in Brisbane? I can see the solar rebate and the 50c transport doing them huge favors in places like South Brisbane for example. (not necessarily enough to win). Mad Max should be worried in Griffith next year if Federal Labor were to introduce/trial these policies next year.

@Nicholas

Already: Everton, Clayfield, Moggill, Chatsworth, Ooodgeroo, Ipswich West

Definite: Pumicestone, Redcliffe, Aspley, Mansfield, Redlands

Likely: Bancroft, Pine Rivers, Ferny Grove, Lytton, Capalaba, Springwood, Macalister, Mount Ommaney

Decent possibility: Kurwongbah, Murrumba, Stafford, Maiwar, Bulimba, Logan

Low possibility: Nudgee, Cooper, McConnel, Greenslopes, Miller, Toohey, Stretton

No chance: Morayfield, Sandgate, South Brisbane, Waterford, Woodridge, Algester, Inala, Jordan, Bundamba, Ipswich

SCart, Why is Ipswich ”No Chance” and why is Kurwongbah ”Decent possibility”? You are overestimating Labor in those 2.

Lytton is a tossup. This is not natural LNP territory and you do realize people are reading way too much into the council results which mean fudge all to state and federal politics.

Here would be mine:

Safe LNP: None

Likely LNP: Everton, Clayfield, Chatsworth, Springwood, Ferny Grove, Bancroft, Capalaba, Redlands

Leans LNP: Pine Rivers, Pumicestone, Moggil (Against Greens), Redcliffe, Aspley, Mansfield, Ooodgeroo, Ipswich West, Kurwongbah, Macaslister

Tilt LNP: Ipswich, Mount Ommaney, Murrumba, Lytton

Tilt ALP: Logan

Leans ALP: Stretton, McConnel (Against Greens), Cooper (Against Greens), Nudgee, Stafford

Likely ALP: Greenslopes (Against Greens), Toohey, Sandgate, Bundamba, Jordan, Bulimba, Morayfield

Safe ALP: Inala, Waterford, Woodridge, Algester, Miller (3-Way Race)

Some Extra Seats:

Safe LNP: Glass House, Ninderry, Buderim, Maroochydore, Kawana, Nicklin, Gympie, Nanango, Warrego, Toowoomba North, Toowoomba South, Scenic Rim, Lockyer, Southern Downs, Gregory, Condamine, Callide, Burnett, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Southport, Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Beach, Broadwater, Bonney, Mudgeeraba, Bundaberg, Mackay

Likely LNP: Townsville, Mundingburra, Barron River, Coomera, Burleigh, Currumbin, Theodore, Caloundra, Hervey Bay, Keppel
Leans LNP: Noosa (Against Independent), Maryborough, Thuringowa (3-Way Race), Cairns (Due To Controversy With Entsch’s Wife I Have This Closer)
Tilt LNP: Cook, Mulgrave
Tilt ALP: None
Leans ALP: Gladstone

Safe OTH: Traegar, Hill
Likely OTH: Hinchinbrook, South Brisbane
Leans OTH: Maiwar, Mirani

There Folks, All 93 Seats.

I don’t think Miles has been running a Kirkup or Sunak style “we know we’ve lost but please take pity on us” campaign since the one media cycle a few months ago. Labor have actually been fighting on policies like the 50c fares. To an extent that also serves to cut short the honeymoon of any new government, but it’s also a policy agenda, and a sign that they haven’t given up.

As I’ve said in other posts, even with the tide going out on Labor, sandbagging and other parties picking up lost ALP votes that don’t go blue after preferences or hung parliament negotiations (the Greens in Brisbane, maybe KAP in the North) could stop an outright loss, and maybe Miles hangs on the way Bligh did in 2009.

Question on the politics of abortion in Queensland:

The impression I’m getting is that Labor is very open about their pro-choice stance. Even some MPs in more conservative parts of the state aren’t shying away from it.

The LNP on the other hand, while having voted overwhelmingly against the 2018 bill, seems to be almost afraid of the issue. Crisafulli has said he will not seek to change the laws.

What this suggests to me is that Labor figures it has something to gain and little to lose by presenting itself unequivocally as pro-choice and pushing the narrative that abortion rights may be undermined by an LNP government. The LNP, it would seem, while having a caucus that is very pro-life, believes it is politically harmful to talk about the issue. Are they afraid that there are many would-be LNP voters who may be turned off by an anti-abortion stance? Are they afraid of causing rifts within the party itself? If these hypotheses are true, I would take it as indicating that public opinion in Queensland is very strongly in favour of abortion rights. That would be consistent with what polls in the past have generally found nationwide. But I would be interested to know how the numbers vary by demographic and party support in Queensland.

I also note how this compares to the abortion debate in NSW. NSW Labor was much more divided than QLD Labor. Conversely, there was much greater support among NSW Liberal MPs for decriminalisation than among LNP MPs.

i am always of the view that issues such as Abortion and Euthansia are matters of conscience vote and i really hope we dont see the Americanisation of Australian politics on culture wars such as Abortion. I dont think NSW Labor can win Pittwater or Vaucluse by championing Abortion nor can the NSW Libs win Bankstown or Blacktown by emphasizing being Pro-Life. In QLD, can Labor win Mogill by talking about Abortion? I will let others answer this question
In the Wright thread, i mentioned that ONP voters are typically non-religious and the % who never attend Church even for weddings and funerals is higher than the General Public.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/27/looking-back-and-angry-what-drives-pauline-hansons-voters

I hope you are right, @Nimalan.

After a lot of soul searching, I’ve come to realise over the years that I align more with the Liberals than with the left-of-centre parties. The sticking point for me is that on some of the more contentious social and cultural issues of our time, including abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, I am not a conservative. That being said, I’m not really a progressive either – I’m more of a libertarian, so some of my views are quite nuanced. I’d like to get more involved in politics, and once I’m in Queensland, that would mean getting involved with the LNP. I wonder if there’s a place for me there despite my differences on these issues.

@ Nicholas
Abortion and Euthanasia have not got as much attention in Australia as say the US where it is a political fault line. In QLD, it may the case that the LNP is willing to loose affluent seats such as Clayfield and Mogill to possibly win Rockhampton and Mackay. QLD is different to Australia since 52% of the population live outside Brisbane. It makes less sense in my state of Victoria where 78% of the population live in cosmopolitan city and the next 3 largest cities are increasingly progressive with tree changers. So Victorian Liberals obsessions with culture wars seems suicidely stupid. While many Labor seats, have a high religious population these areas are very CALD and they are not right wing on other matters such as immigration, refugees, welcome to country, flags etc. Shared Social values do not equal electoral success in the right areas after the SSM vote Labor did not go on to win the 2019 election nor did the Liberals win Blaxland, Watson etc, Labor is not going to win Fairfax, Fisher or Flinders since they voted strongly for SSM.

@Nimalan, I wonder how would the Voice Referendum directly or indirectly affect Small Liberal Votes on Dutton especially seats where the Yes Vote is bigger than the LNP TPP vote (e.g. Kooyong)

@marh
I dont think it will make much of a difference tbh. Malcom Turnbull said prior to the referendum that these sort of constitutional issues are sui generis. By the same token Chris Ullmann said that the liberals should not excited as the No vote is not a vote for them. We can see at Dunkley by election it didn’t not seem to have any impact. likewise the libs are not going to win Spence even though it voted strongly No.

Turnbull never even wanted a referendum, He was forced to by his own party and the Nationals, It politically damaged him in the eyes of Teals and Labor voters. But any political junkie like myself knows he was forced. He would have favored a parliamentary vote.

@Nimilan, not necessarily saying The Voice is the only direct factor although it can still indirect as Dutton moving to more Right-Wing populist territory might still affect the voting pattern although not heavily. Similarly The Voice Referendum would ironically rather create indirect affects with some Labor No Voters consider swinging to Dutton.

Also Ben, why did you force my comments to only be approved by you? Was it because of what I said on the Spain thread. If so I apologize and won’t post like that again.

Back to Queensland, I think the LNP are making a mistake on being small-target while being this far ahead in the polls. There is no reason for them to worry at this stage if 57-43 is anything to go by. I highly doubt an ambitious campaign will scare off too many voters. If they set out a clear vision and deliver on it, then I think it will ensure them 3 terms that many talk about.

Tony Abbott federally was effective and often ranked the best opposition leader despite his unpopularity because he didn’t just say the Labor government was a bad government, but told the people why and set out a vision, even though many people such as myself disagreed with it. He was extremely effective.

On the other hand Crisafulli is just assuming Labor will tear itself to shreds and gets in and then sets out a vision, this won’t cost him the election, but certainly could cost him 2028 (perhaps his majority)

I have a sneaky feeling the Victorian Liberals are going to try to do the same thing, Might want to learn from Abbott on delivery and message rather than ”policy”

@ Marh
I think it will one reason to prevent a recovery for the Libs in the Teal seats may not affect the notional TPP and give Monique Ryan an edge over Amelia Hamer. In terms of white working class voters moving to Dutton from Labor due to the voice it is certainly possible in a seat like Paterson, Blair, Lyons etc which are all competitive. However, i think other seats like Makin, Spence, Brand have too big of a margin so i dont think Libs will bother there although some fool on Sky after Dark will suggest the Libs campaign in Spence.

A Facebook group called “Bring Back the QLD Nats” seems to be planning to make a new party, to be registered next week, called the “New Country Party”. They say they will target Callide, Condamine, Gregory, Gympie, Southern Downs, Nanango and Warrego. They attribute the LNP’s support of Net Zero and Renewable energy as a main region to create the party. Treaty is also seen as an issue. Main policies seem to be rural and regional focused, including “Royalties for the Regions (Health, Education, Roads), Fair Laws for Farmers, Affordable [and] Reliable Energy, Property & Individual Rights and Water Security.” They talk a lot about essentially restarting the pre-LNP National Party.

I see it going a few ways. They could take votes of the LNP and become a serious threat in the regions (similar to the SFF party in NSW 2019). If One Nation preferences them, and they take enough votes off the LNP, they could be a serious threat. I don’t see Labor preferencing them because of the ideological differences. They could also send preferences through to One Nation in seats that have large enough urban centres (Gympie and Nanango). Or they could just become a vote split for One Nation voters and have very little impact.

Oh also apparently the “formalities” of the party will be sorted out by Monday. Also, it’s run by Terry Wilke, a farmer from Biloela, so he’ll probably be the candidate for Callide if it all gets registered.

I thought the New Country Party already existed in other states?

Anyway they won’t pick up any seats and their preferences will end up going to the LNP anyway.

More dogs and cats on the right.
FWIW – the LNP merger was a disaster as it gave much greater prominence to the likes of Matt Canavan and Gerard Rennick and largely sidelined Liberal moderates in Brisbane. And it now has undue influence in the Coalition whilst being repellant to large numbers of voters in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

New Country Party would argue that the LNP is too Brisbane-focused or too Labor-like. I doubt they’ll get much traction given the competition from One Nation and KAP. I don’t think an LNP de-merger will happen anytime soon given their almost certain state election victory.

Sounds like New Country Party will just be another failed splinter group given the low social media following given even Australian Conservatives and Liberal for Trees failed despite have founded by higher profile individuals.

@Votante that would be a silly argument given that they only have five state seats in Brisbane. In contrast they have all but one on the Gold Coast, all but two on the Sunshine Coast, all the agricultural rural seats other than the KAP seats and one seat in Ipswich (Ipswich West). Their main targets are in the outer suburbs of Brisbane and in North Queensland (the LNP will sweep Townsville and Cairns).

@ Votante on the topic of a potential de-merger of the LNP, they’re sure to reintroduce OPV when they get elected in October and that will make the prospects of it even less likely. If it was ever going to happen I think it would have happened already.

anything under 10% is in play

The LNP have started releasing AI Generated attack ads on TikTok, meanwhile Qld Premier is saying that they (Labor) will not stoop to that level. https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/23/queensland-premier-steven-miles-ai-generated-qld-election-video-lnp-tiktok-attack-ad

@Caleb they already did with that AI video of Peter Dutton.

@Nether Portal that was federal Labor not state labor

@Caleb still.

On social media, photos and videos/reels that are fully or partially AI generated are required to be marked as such. AI is a common tool nowadays. I don’t find anything wrong with these videos as long as they aren’t showing graphic, obscene or illegal content in them (which in that case they would be removed by the moderators of whatever social media platform it’s on).

In the UK there was an AI generated video of Nigel Farage blowing up Rishi Sunak’s house in Minecraft and blaming it on Keir Starmer.

As a Labor member I think Miles is over-reacting. It’s pretty obvious that the video is AI, and it’s a trend on TikTok that even Federal Labor participated in. There’s nothing wrong with those sort of low quality memes.

Current predictions

https://imgbox.com/BXW7rw99
* Not included is the regional seats which are all LNP except the current 3 Katter seats, independent in Noosa and Gladstone. LNP win Mirani.

LNP: 62
ALP: 21
GRN: 6
KATTER: 3
IND: 1

LNP 57.5%
ALP: 42.5%

@Drake IMO Ferny Grove and Springwood have inflated Labor margins and will fall to the LNP in the event of such a large victory as you predict.

I also hope my MP holds on here in Mirani which is an odd thing for me to say as I’m not right-wing, but he is decent enough as a person and especially in recent years has functionally been an independent. I’m sure my opinion would sway if I looked at his voting record but at the same time I’d still rather him over an irrelevent and lackluster backbench LNP member. He could well lose though, if the same or similar vote shift that occurred in 2020 happens then the LNP will easily win with his preferences, although by a slightly less margin than some would predict (perhaps 62-64% TPP as opposed to something like 65-70%+) as we may preference the ALP over the LNP in higher numbers than some other seats with a significant ONP vote (I am not sure of this as I haven’t looked at the data, just the general feel I get from staying in/visiting towns such as Mirani and Mount Morgan, as well as their demographics.)

@Laine I reckon if another One Nation MP gets elected then the party will become more party branded in Queensland, like how the state KAP has more of a party brand than the federal KAP since they only have one federal seat but three state seats (that all at least partially overlap with Bob Katter’s federal seat of Kennedy).

Anyway, I know that Stephen Andrew opposed abortion but I don’t know how he voted on euthanasia.

Interestingly he is the first person of South Sea Islander descent to be elected in an Australian legislature, and he is a Vanuatuan tribal chief. He is the descendants of “Kanakas” who were blackbirded from Vanuatu to Queensland. During his parliamentary term he visited Ambae Island in Vanuatu where he obtained a tribal chieftain following traditional ceremonies held on the island. His tribal name is Moli Duru Ambae.

Maybe some of his social conservatism is cultural since Vanuatu (like most other Pacific Islands) is very Christian. Most people are religious there.

For example, age of consent for anal sex was not equalised with the age of consent for other forms of sex until 2007 (to be fair in Queensland it wasn’t until 2016 for some reason), and although the country has some legal protections for LGBT people in employment, same-sex marriage and LGBT adoption is illegal and it is also believed that being transgender is also illegal.

Nevertheless Pacific Islanders are usually tolerant of everyone who is a decent person. Fiji and Vanuatu are also relatively liberal on LGBT rights compared to other Pacific Islands.