Indi – Australia 2028

The tpp over the last couple of decades has narrowed up significantly between Labor with it being marginal in 2016 and 2022. The narrowing up might have to do with Melbournes urban sprawl now very slightly in this seat plus the growth in the ski towns.

@spaceFish, Melbourne doesn’t stretch to Indi. It used to when Indi covered Craigieburn.

Oops sorry, just realised I’ve confused Indi with McEwen. Indi has moved closer to Melbourne, however the seat has stayed north of the ranges.

@Spacefish Not just the ski resorts but the major centres like Benalla, Wodonga and Wangaratta are all trending progressive some way or another. Then you also have tree change towns like Beechworth, Yackandandah, Rutherglen which are all very left-leaning, leans heavily on tourism and have a lot of professionals, artists, tertiary educated people.

Interestingly though the closer you get to Melbourne the more conservative it gets (e.g. Eildon) but Kinglake still votes IND heavily given it’s a peri-urban town of Melbourne metro anyway.

@Tommo9, I wouldn’t call Benalla, Wodonga and Wangaratta progressive. Helen Haines is strongest in northern areas, that have been traditionally part of Indi, and Haines has a lot of support amongst traditionally conservative voters that swung to Cathy McGowan. Only Beechworth and Yachandandra in the northern part could be classed as progressive.

@ Tommo9
Pencil is correct the big towns like Wodonga, Wangratta are not progressive. Some smaller towns especially those at high elevations such as Kinglake, Bright etc are Progressive as are historical Goldfields towns such as Beechworth as they attract tree changers. Some of this high elevation towns are notable for Autumn leaves and even get snowfall in Winter.

https://www.worldatlas.com/cities/9-prettiest-small-towns-in-victoria.html

@Tommo9, Rutherglen actually voted Lineral as recently as 2019 federally.

If this seat were to become an open race would an independent win it again or would One Nation or if there was an absence of an independent would the Liberals or would Labor win it.

I think in the absence of another independent it would be won by the Liberals. There is a much more moderate vote and also smaller pockets of progressive votes here than in neighbouring seats like Farrer or Nicholls that would help the Liberals in a 2CP against One Nation.

I doubt another IND would fail to emerge as presumably the volunteer base would be willing to mobilise behind a successor, but Adam rightly points out that in a straight contest between ONP and the Liberals you would probably back the Liberals as they would benefit from left-of-centre preferences from places like Kinglake and down the Ovens Valley towards the snowfields.

With Haines re-contesting I think the more right-wing element of her personal vote could easily slip away and leave her vulnerable however

Kos Samaras pointed out that Indi was demographically different from Farrer which is why Millthrope would have faced a steeper challange. The geography of this seat is a bit different even if they are bordering seats and Albury-Wodonga functions as one metro. As a lot of this seat is quite elevated above sea level it has more tourism focused and more tree changers so there is more progressive base in Flowerdale, Kinglake, Bright, Beechworth, Mount Beauty Stanley etc which Farrer does not have. It is for the same reason that Wannon is a more progressive seat than Mallee or Gippsland.

Haines seems to have two coalitions which is tree changers progressives who migrated there for the lifestyle but also manages to win in Wodonga and communities along the rail corridor who tend to be local and longer time residents who are socially conservative (evident from the results of the Voice Referendum) so I wonder if Haines would be able to retain the latter communities?

As Marh mentioned places like Beechworrth had a massive majority for the Voice along with some narrower majorities in places like Mount Beauty. I wonder if the Voice as re-run in 15 years places like Bright, Flowerdale etc will vote Yes even if the state, this electorates and the nation still votes No.

I think Farrer is more agrarian and dependent on primary industries than Indi is. Water and the Murray Darling Basin were pivotal by-election issues in Farrer. Also, primary industries are more carbon-intensive and their workers may be reluctant to vote for a “teal” candidate.

One Nation was effective in Farrer at winning the “left behind” vote in small outposts and villages with declining populations and disappearing high streets. Indi probably has fewer towns with such characteristics. This means One Nation may not be as successful in Indi as in Farrer.

Conversely, I don’t know if Wodonga functions quite the same as Albury in terms of being a large progressive vote sink, I could imagine ON being very competitive on 2CP in Wodonga and the other major towns along the Hume

@Maxim, Wodonga does not have a large educated voting area that exist in Southern Parts of Albury and rather feel more like Northern Albury which had more of a 50/50 result in the by-election and the Voice Referendum result is similar so I think is would be competitive alongside the town on the Hume Highway as you said.