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I would have been smarter to put this comment here instead of in Corio 2025:
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2025/corio2025/comment-page-2#comment-864977
I think this will become a Labor vs ONP contest. This follows results from the SA state election and Farrer by-election.
ONP may come second on primary votes and benefit from preference flows from smaller parties. There would be a collapse in the Liberal vote as working-class voters and semi-rural voters see a new non-Labor alternative. The areas most likely to see surges in ONP votes are the working-class eastern suburbs and semi-rural areas like Lara and Bannockburn.
It’s possible that some working-class Greens voters are protest voters or economically populist and would swing to ONP (which I think might’ve happened at the Farrer by-election). They might be our version of the Sanders-Trump voter.
Easy to see ON coming second but hard to see Labor losing without their being some sort of Keir Starmer collapse in the vote. Using the crude numbers from Bludgertrack, Labor would seem to end up in the mid 50s somewhere.
@ Redistrubuted
Difference is if Labor is losing votes to its left flank like Keir Starmer is as well, in Australia it will still flow to Labor on 2CP unless Greens outpoll Labor and becomes a GRN V ONP seat which Greens will win. Harold Holt was the last Liberal to win Corio that was due to the DLP but those days are long gone. If the DLP did not exist then it would have become a safe Labor seat in the Late 1950s and post war indutrialisation was complete (Oil Refinery was completed in the late 50s). The closest comparison to this seat is Cunningham and Newcastle. The difference is that that Wollongong and Newcastle are bigger cities than Geelong so a lot of the Outer Suburban/Peri-Urban areas are in other seats. Even if Labor gets a Whitlam style 1975 defeat Corio will not fall to any right wing party.