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In light of the Farrer by-election result, I think the Nationals’ hold on this seat is under serious threat from One Nation. One Nation already polled 13.65% in Parkes in 2025, the sixth highest in Australia. One Nation 3CP in Parkes (24.3%) was the third highest in Australia. I don’t think the first-term National MP for Parkes will have enough personal votes to withstand a One Nation surge. Parkes defintely will be a big One Nation target at the 2028 election.
I agree that this seat is one where ON seriously threaten the Nats. However it is a seat where there is a very high likelihood that Labor and the Greens will end up third. Depending on how high the ON primary is, the Nats should theoretically be saved by Labor and Green preferences. However, in places like Broken Hill that preference flow might not be assured.
Labor coming third on a 3CP – their primary vote is very low now – could be the difference in Parkes, New England, Maranoa, Farrer possibly also O’Donoghue (Grey) and a few others.
It could be possible that rural or working class Labor voters either switch to One Nation or preference One Nation ahead of the Nationals with the aim of defeating the Nationals. Labor voters, particularly in Broken Hill, may feel empowered to defeat the Nationals in a safe seat, knowing that Labor would never win it. One Nation could just be their protest option.
There was also a strong SFF and minor right wing vote that could get behind One Nation.