Parkes – Australia 2028

In light of the Farrer by-election result, I think the Nationals’ hold on this seat is under serious threat from One Nation. One Nation already polled 13.65% in Parkes in 2025, the sixth highest in Australia. One Nation 3CP in Parkes (24.3%) was the third highest in Australia. I don’t think the first-term National MP for Parkes will have enough personal votes to withstand a One Nation surge. Parkes defintely will be a big One Nation target at the 2028 election.

I agree that this seat is one where ON seriously threaten the Nats. However it is a seat where there is a very high likelihood that Labor and the Greens will end up third. Depending on how high the ON primary is, the Nats should theoretically be saved by Labor and Green preferences. However, in places like Broken Hill that preference flow might not be assured.

Labor coming third on a 3CP – their primary vote is very low now – could be the difference in Parkes, New England, Maranoa, Farrer possibly also O’Donoghue (Grey) and a few others.

It could be possible that rural or working class Labor voters either switch to One Nation or preference One Nation ahead of the Nationals with the aim of defeating the Nationals. Labor voters, particularly in Broken Hill, may feel empowered to defeat the Nationals in a safe seat, knowing that Labor would never win it. One Nation could just be their protest option.

There was also a strong SFF and minor right wing vote that could get behind One Nation.

According to Redbridge’s May MRP polling, the highest ONP primary vote and 2CP is in Parkes. It is higher in Parkes than in Farrer, New England or anywhere in QLD. I’m not sure if Parkes will be ONP’s best result but I agree that it is under serious threat.

It has the traits of many other rural seats with a high ONP vote. They include:
Towns and outposts with decreasing population and disappearing high streets, especially west of the Newell Highway.
High reliance on mining and agriculture.
Low percentage of people who hold degrees.
Small migrant population.

Prime ON territory. The local state MP was originally elected as a Shooter so a lot of voters here peeled off the major parties a while back. The Nats might survive if Labor fall to third. At this stage, a seat the Nats should be deeply worried about.

Parkes is a good example of regional grievance. Political competitiveness is a good way to address that grievance and get things done. The problem in these regional seats is that they are becoming competitive but the dominant political player in the nation – the ALP – is not in the game and can just go on ignoring these areas as there are no votes – even Senate votes – to be won there.

I wonder if Broken Hill will be won by Labor next election in a contest against One Nation. After all, on a federal level Broken Hill has voted Labor pretty much since federation, not even in the 1996 landslide defeat did it vote National or Liberal. It’s interesting that certain mining towns like Moe, Collie and Moranbah still vote Labor by pretty large margins even though Labor’s vote has died in most former mining areas, like the rest of the La Trobe Valley or the North Bowen Basin. It’s a heartland area for Labor, even if it hasn’t helped them win a seat on state or federal level since the 2003 NSW election.

On a state-level though, Broken Hill did vote SFF over Labor so perhaps it is possible, but that might indicate that Labor could finish third in the seat which wouldn’t be good for One Nation’s electoral prospects(though they realistically would have 40+% primary vote, so they should still win).

@ Mozo
I think Broken Hill is a bit different to the other areas you mentioned as it is Iron Ore mining so not as impacted by the climate wars. The other point if that Labor does not put any effort in Broken Hill because even if they get a spectacular result in Broken Hill it is no where near enough to actually win Parkes. I do agree ONP can win some blue collar votes that the Coalition could not otherwise pick up. With respect to Moe i can see it voting Coalition even in a classic contest against Labor as the Brown Coal industry is rapidly declining as there is no export market.

@Nimalan
Yeah I agree. The La Trobe Valley is over for Labor and their support there is terminal. The 2025 federal election will probably be the last time Labor wins Moe-Newborough for a long time. I think the fact that Moe has been in Liberal seats like Narracan or Monash on a state-federal level has limited the Coalition vote there a bit, as I think the Nationals have more appeal to Moe-Newborough than the Libs(Although the Libs actually beat them there in 2022 Victoria I think).

Moranbah I think is too unionised and is a fly-in fly-out area that has One Nation potential, and the Katter party actually won it in the 2012 QLD landslide with Katter supporting union workers there. I can’t really see One Nation doing the same thing though, so I think out of these mining town heartland areas for Labor it’s the most likely to vote Labor still in the 2028 federal election. They’ll probably win Collie too but that place is in active transition from mining. Broken Hill is a tossup probably because of those reasons you stated.

@Nimalan and Mozo, the areas that has both a strong Labor Vote and a strong No Vote to the Voice correlates heavily with the White Working Class with industrial heritage or are mining areas which is where there would probably be the highest concentration of Red One Nation Voters.

@ Mozo
Great points. Narracan each redistribution has been getting better for the Coalition. Newborough was removed in 2014 and the last part of the La Trobe valley, Moe was removed in 2022. I dont think on current boundaries of Narracan, Bracks would have won it in either 1999 or 2002.
Labor notionally won the electorate of Morwell in 2018 versus Coalition. I honestly think Labor will never win Morwell even notionally again. Next time, whenever it maybe. that Victorian state Labor are headed for their 2002 or 2018 type landslide, subject to boundaries, they should target Polwarth or Croydon instead. I feel they now have a better chance to win Rowville than Morwell.

Another area where Labor support is terminal seems to be the area around Lithgow and like the case of the La Trobe valley this decline seemed to happen pre Adani mine issue unlike Hunter Valley or Central QLD. Again i dont think state seat of Bathurst is worth targetting they now have Bega instead which they never won during the Carr years.
If you look at this the link below. Gippsland and Calare are among the seats that shifted the most over the 2004-2025 period.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/60759

@Marh, Yeah the voice result in Broken Hill was 78-22% No, but 63-37% Labor on TPP in the 2025 election
Collie: 81-19% No, 55-45% Labor TPP.
Moranbah: 82-18% No, 56-44% Labor TPP.
Moe-Newborough: 73-27% No, 53-47% Labor TPP.

It’s a bit of an indicator that Broken Hill is probably the most rusted on Labor place out of these towns, while their brand is more damaged in Moe. Mount Morgan & Port Whyalla(with its steel manufacturing too) are some other towns that still vote Labor are like this too(both 80-20% No), though Port Whyalla is 68-32% TPP, though it’s a little inflated because of that steelwork bailout.

@Nimalan
Yeah a lot of these areas like the La Trobe Valley, the Bowen Basin are places where Labor’s votes are draining and One Nation will speed up in the process. These towns are also shrinking too, Broken Hill is becoming smaller everday now. Honestly though, while it’s definitely important for QLD Labor to revive their brand in the regional centres of Central QLD to win back government, it’s not that important for Victoria Labor to win back the La Trobe Valley, or Federal Labor to win back the Bowen Basin to win Capricornia or Flynn, or winning over Lithgow or Bathurst for NSW Labor. Kalgoorlie and Bunbury are similar areas for WA Labor too. It’s not the worst trade-off to lose mining-regional areas to win urban middle class areas like Doncaster or Croydon or Rowville or anything like that.

However, when Labor loses their industrial urban heartland or the working class suburban vote like in West Melbourne, or North Adelaide + Gawler is when Labor runs into serious issues in regards to winning elections. There’s no reason why Labor should be losing Sydenham, Sunbury or Melton just to lose all over in East Melbourne because they went all in for a place that is quite swing-y.

@ Mozo
You are correct. Morwell is not important for Labor now. Croydon and Rowville are better picks for Victorian Labor than Morwell. Interesting you mention Doncaster i actually live there. I think it is harder than other parts of Middle Ring Eastern suburbs. Yes it does have a very large Chinese community and growing Iranian community it still has a far above average, Southern Europenan community, which I think is trending right over time. Menzies was won because it includes areas in Whitehorse council as well i still think a purely Manningham seat will be very difficult to win. Also state electorate of Bulleen includes Templestowe which has some acrages and big block houses.

You are 100% correct Labor should not make the mistake of neglecting its Urban heartland to win well serviced middle class areas. NSW Labor should not neglect Liverpool for Ryde , SA Labor should not neglect Elizabeth for Morialta and WA Labor neglect Rockingham or Scarbrough or Hillarys.

Broken Hill is different to the mining regions along the East Coast. The Hunter and Central QLD are big on coal mining and can get entangled in the climate wars. Broken Hill has mining of different metal ores and has benefited in recent years from the minerals boom.

I believe the voters of Broken Hill are willing to vote for an outsider or disruptor candidate as a challenger to the status quo. They have been in a safe Coalition seat (Farrer, Parkes) for decades. In 2019, SFF won the state seat of Barwon. The MP then ran as an independent in 2023 and won it.

It should be noted that Broken Hill has had a declining population for decades and so forms a smaller and smaller component of any electorate – state or federal. It also has both a distinctly aged profile and a reasonably large indigenous population. It is quite possible that Labor rely on both these population components. The aged because they have voted Labor forever and in a mining town it would be part of their social identity, gradually, this demographic will age and die off. Indigenous voters in regional towns really have nowhere else to go – and probably very unlikely to Vote One Nation . It is probably the Nats who will get squeezed between Labor and ON.