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Despite the very large margin in 2025, unfavourable redistributions of this seat, Labor’s dithering of choosing a candidate and this seat getting no attention what so ever the Labor performed extremely well. I must admit I was convinced that this seat would get a double digit margin after 2025 due to the cost of living pressures really bitting an electorate like this. It’s likely that Labor will preselect Jeff Springfield due to name recognition however I remain unconvinced that they’ll pick this seat up next time around. The Greens performed extremely well in the Officer booths and the Pakenham booths which is quite impressive for an outer suburban seat so far away from their traditional heartland.
It’s possible that they’re getting Alessandra Soliven to run here in the state seat of Pakenham just to build up some name recognition for 2028 so they can field here, I could see it paying off especially is they expand parliament and Jason Wood moves seats.
This seat would be one that will be increasingly vulnerable to Labor. The Morrison Government’s HomeBuilder Grants would be popular among voters purchasing house and land packages in areas like here and Holt hence the strong performance in outer suburban areas. This evaporated by the 2025 election along with the anti-immigration and anti-multiculturalism direction of the Libs. Unless the Libs completely change direction, the increasing South Asian population in La Trobe would likely hand this seat to Labor.
Anyone know how the Greens did so well in Pakenham and Officer in 2025? Getting over 15% of the primary vote at outer suburban booths is a rarity.
@Votante,
A few reasons as to why. Firstly, young people moving out from the city who are starting a family who take their progressive views with them. Secondly, young adults in their 20’s who can’t afford to move out of home. Thirdly, renting close to the city is super expensive so young people have moved further out as it’s cheaper plus Victoria has mandatory if possible two days work from home.
@SpaceFish, it’s interesting that there is suburbanisation of the Greens vote to the outskirts of Melbourne. Renting or buying a home in Melbourne isn’t as expensive as in most other capital cities. I didn’t think the pro-Palestine vote or working class vote would be that strong in this neck of the woods. In similar places in Sydney, the Greens vote was in the high teens at most.
@ Votante
i think there some South Asian muslims here but the main minority here are Hindus and Sri Lankan Buddhists. Hinduism is the main minority religion in this electorate. Further West in Bruce and to a lesser extent Holt there are way moe Muslims including Afghans which is why Pro Palestine setniment is stronger there
@SpaceFish: “Victoria has mandatory if possible two days work from home”. Work from home laws does not make working from home two days a week mandatory for anyone, even if they can work from home. If someone wants to work five days a week in the office even though they can work from home, they won’t be forced to work from home two days a week. The work from home laws just makes it a legislated right for workers who can work from home to work from home at least two days a week, and employers can’t refuse their requests to work from home without compelling reasons.