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Another seat where Labor threw a significant amount of resources and margin barely moved. When Rob Mitchell retires Labor will have a hard time holding here.
It’s pretty clear that even though the outer suburbs didn’t swing as hard as inner city/middle class seats, they aren’t receptive to what the Coalition is serving up at the moment. For them to regain ground in the ‘Battler’ seats like McEwen, Hawke and Gorton they’ll need to go back to centre-right politics of Turnbull rather than the hard right that the Liberals are obsessed with at present.
@ SpaceFish
What you need to factor is the Urban Sprawl here especially in Mitchell and Whittlsea council see my comments in 2025 thread
Population growth in the Southern suburbs may actually be helping Labor as Drake said even if they are undeperforming as there just more Labor voters and the seat is becoming less rural day by day. As an example in the Beveridge booth in 2022 there were 1060 formal votes cast in 2025 there was 1422 formal votes while in Donnybrook (Woodstock) booth there were 301 votes cast in 2022 but in 2025 there were 1050 so number of voters in that booth has tripled both booths had small swings to Labor. The libs do best in the Semi-rural areas of the seat but they are not growing in population. Each election there are new voters in this seat who did not live there the previous election. Also there will be a high amount of Gen Z voters in Mernda/Doreen who will join the electoral roll in 2028. Mernda, Doreen where suburbs developed in the 2000s so many Gen Z who are currently in High School will be able to vote in 2028 and still live at home. The best home for Libs is to add more rural areas from Casey, Indi or Nicholls
I thought the narrative was that it was the *Liberals* who “threw a significant amount of resources” and the margin barely moved!
If the Liberal Party split, McEwen is the sort of seat where a moderate Liberal could beat a Conservative.
It never seems to get mentioned, but McEwen might turn out to be fertile One Nation territory – outer suburban to rural, very anglo. Starts to get a CALD at the inner edge and has small Tealish areas around Macedon but apart from that could be a target.
@ Redistributed
I think Mernda-Doreen is ONP friendly so is Wallan. The Macedon Ranges is Tealish but so is Nilumbik especially Diamond Creek to Hurstbridge. Nilumbik has the heighest SEIFA in Victoria.
However, Donnybrook is quite CALD and an extention of Cragieburn IMHO
So i dont think ONP will do that well here as it too mixed and has many different communities of interest
I think McEwen will be one of these seats that will be a complicated 3 or 4 way horse race given the vastly different demographic that this seat encompasses especially as politics continues to fracture and people hardline on their views and become more tribal.
Although as Nimalan rightly pointed out earlier on this electorate continues to urbanise and young families do keep moving in so that will be a factor for the future as well.
There was a post back regarding the results of the Voice Referendum about the No Vote being high in sizable Indigenous Communities (except for Lingiari which has a No Vote albeit below the National average due to high indigenous population) about the “low-contact intergroup threat perception” where there is a theory that the white population is more as they are more exposed to Indigenous Communities.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/53527
I wonder if this theory actually applies with the results in SA Elections with Working Class White Australians keeping contact with non-white CALD to a minimal even if they live on the same street or even work in the same workplace hence might have that thinking they are “invading” the country culture , stealing our jobs etc. I think that might explain that areas with the highest percentage of non-white CALD in SA such as areas around Blair Athol, Hanson Road etc aren’t amongst lowest % of ON votes in SA (although overall still below SA average).
*more likely to vote No and/or against Indigenous Communities
I think that might be another reason alongside the loss of Holden is why the Northern Suburbs Working Class Communities voted ON even more that Southern Suburbs Working Class Communities as the latter has a lower percentage of non-white CALD
@ Marh
I feel the Low contact integroup perception may also happen in areas like the City of Casey where Anglo Australians in places like Berwick are often nationalist and avoid contact with the Afghan community in Hallam even if they see each other at Fountain Gate. It may happen in Sunbury as it is Anglo but in the same council as Broadmeadows.
I feel this does not occur in for example Middle Class areas like Knox, Hills District or Manningham where middle Class CALD and Anglo communities mix well.