LNP 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Ross Vasta, since 2010, previously 2004-2007.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner covers eastern parts of the City of Brisbane south of the Brisbane River. Main suburbs include Wynnum, Manly, Mount Gravatt and Carindale, as well as the sparsely populated Moreton Island.
History
Bonner was created at the redistribution prior to the 2004 election as a notionally Labor seat, taking in the most pro-Labor parts of Bowman, then held by the ALP.
At the 2004 election, sitting Member for Bowman Con Sciacca ran for Bonner. Sciacca had held Bowman since 1987, except for one term after losing the seat in 1996. A swing to the Liberal Party saw Sciacca defeated by Ross Vasta (LIB) by less than 800 votes.
A 5% swing to the ALP gave the seat to Kerry Rea in 2007. In 2010, Rea was challenged by Vasta, who won the seat back for the Liberal National Party. Vasta has been re-elected at the last three elections.
Assessment
Bonner is a marginal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ross Vasta | Liberal National | 43,191 | 44.8 | -4.7 |
| Tabatha Young | Labor | 28,491 | 29.6 | -1.5 |
| Bernard Lakey | Greens | 16,144 | 16.8 | +5.1 |
| Amanda Neil | One Nation | 5,371 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Serge Diklich | United Australia | 3,177 | 3.3 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 2,467 | 2.5 | -0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ross Vasta | Liberal National | 51,471 | 53.4 | -4.0 |
| Tabatha Young | Labor | 44,903 | 46.6 | +4.0 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
The LNP won 54.6% of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre, while Labor polled 50.7% in the south and 52.1% in the north. The LNP won substantial majorities of the pre-poll and other votes.
The Greens came third, with 15.2% of the pre-poll primary vote and a primary vote ranging from 17% in the centre to 21% in the north and south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 20.9 | 49.3 | 13,551 | 14.1 |
| Central | 17.0 | 54.6 | 11,971 | 12.4 |
| North | 21.0 | 47.9 | 10,349 | 10.7 |
| Pre-poll | 15.2 | 53.8 | 36,067 | 37.4 |
| Other votes | 14.8 | 56.9 | 24,436 | 25.4 |
Election results in Bonner at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
in regards to the swing even if it were possible to get an 8 point swing seats like Greenvale, Niddrie and Bentleigh would have a less then avg swing and they would fall short. thoguh some seats would have a hgher then avg. i can see them possibly winning South Barwon. but as stated else where i cant see the libs getting the 17 seats needed to form govt. what happens neither side can get a majority (44 seats each) as vic has an even amount of seats the only place in the country to my knowledge
@ Craig
Just some points
1. You could say Berwick is the replacement seat for Gembrook. However, Berwick is stronger as it does not include places like Belgrave, Selby, Kallista which are strong left wing areas so i dont think on current boundaries Bracks would have won Berwick in 2002/2005
2. I will count South Barwon as Labor held not IND held as i go on who won at the general election. For the same reason i will count Prahran as a Greens seat notwithstanding the by-election
3. Eildon replaced Seymour but it is stronger for the Liberal party as it replaced Mitchell Shire with Mansfield Shire more rural and further from Melbourne.
4. Since 2010 4 seats that Coalition won in 2010 (Swan Hill, Doncaster, Ferntree Gully, Mount Waverly) dont exist but have been replaced by two seats which Coalition can win (Pakenham/Sunbury). The old Tullamarine which is simmilar to Sunbury was won by Coalition during Kennent years very narowlyt so that is a net loss of 2 possible seats for the coaltion/
5. Labor only won 1 Eastern Suburbs seat in 2010/2014 Monbulk as there are fewer eastern suburbs seats the Coalition cannot afford not to win it in 2026 to have anyhope
6. 2 North West Melb seats (Yan Yean, Nidderie) are generally narrowly Labor and middle class less diverse so can be won
7. Melton is a possibility soley due to local factors
8. Other seats like Eltham,Macedon, Ivanhoe and Bellarine are socially progressive secular areas where i dont think current direction of Liberals will be recieved well in
I think Crisafulli has definitely got the ability to win a swag of seats in Brisbane, depending on how his term goes. So far so good though.
@ John
I agree with you. I especially dont think Greenvale will swing much it maybe one of the few seats that could have a slight swing to Labor along with St Albans, Thomastown and Broadmeadows due to lockdown backlash fading. I can see Libs winning Carrum, Frankston before Greenvale
I think Libs have a good chance to pick up Niddrie it is middle class very European and Christian. The delay to Airport Rail will hurt Labor there.
I do think both parties will get a seat count in the 40s
I had a gut feeling that once Labor lifted up their game in QLD, Bonner would flip. Pre-election, this was the only LNP seat entirely within BCC (I think). I doubted Labor in QLD for some time last term because it was getting squeezed out by the Greens and LNP and Labor would struggle to win over soft voters of both parties. I thought that on paper it was winnable for Labor because of middle and upper-class professionals and teal-ish voters.
Labor won a regional QLD seat for the first time since 2019. Compared to Rudd in 2007, Labor in 2025 won almost the same seats in SE QLD but not Longman. Rudd Labor didn’t win Dickson whereas Albanese Labor won it.
@Votante back in 2007 the boundaries of Dickson were quite different though and I’m pretty sure that on current boundaries Labor would’ve won it back then.
@ Votante
As Nether Portal pointed out Labor would have won Dickson very narrowly in 2007 on current boundaries back in 2007 it had the Somerset region which saved Dutton. Rudd also won Capricornia, Dawson and Flynn which are very difficult these days. You could also argue that Labor notionally won Ryan this time which they did not in 2007
@ Nether Portal, i agree that Crisafulli has potential to win Brisbane seats. The point is that it is possible for LNP to win an elecion with no seats in BCC and they can without Moggill/Clayfield. It is not possible in Victoria to win without Kew/Malvern for example.
Agree Nimalan, the changing demographics mean urban Brisbane seats carry less importance for a LNP majority. The party held the seats of Aspley and Indooroopilly (now Maiwar) when in opposition under Beattie and Bligh, which they don’t hold now.
Conversely, the LNP managed to win Mulgrave, Mackay and Rockhampton which stayed with Labor even after the 2012 wipeout.
@nimalan the reason i put a hold on Niddrie is because it is held by Ben Carroll and labor would defintely mobilize resources there. the other seat which may well be inplay is Bendgo East if Andrew Lathlean runs against Jacinta Allen
@votante back then Dickson had Somerset in it and Peter Duttons brand wasnt as damaged. Also they had Howard as the incumbent leader.
in regards to QLD the LNP should be able to win back Petrie, Forde and maybe Dickson. with the addition of likey picking up Blair aftter the redistribution but i cant see them winning back Bonner.
@Nimiala:
“Rudd also won Capricornia, Dawson and Flynn …”
The NP didn’t believe Dawson was in danger so they didn’t spend up there.
Capricornia had been Labor since 1998 and before that from 1977 to 1996.
Flynn is the Gladstone seat, which Labor should always win based on the State results.
Even so, Rudd was phenomenally popular in Qld, particularly among female voters [and some say, among people who had never met him].
The only candidate that could make this winnable for the LNP would be Schrinner
Caleb, or Ryan Murphy who also represents the same area as local councillor (Doboy then Chandler wards). I think Ross Vasta is too old/worn down to run for the seat again, given he has served since 2004 (with break of service 2007-2010 when Labor also held the seat).
@ Yoh An
Agree, eventhough the statewide result in TPP terms was almost the same as 2007. Labor did better in Brisbane but did worse in the Rest of QLD compared to 2007. @Nether Portal maybe you could do a map to look at delta between 2007 and 2025 for QLD only adjusted for current boundaries and adjusted for statewide result so see change in Cook PVI
@ John fair point, may only point was that Niddrie was demographically good for Libs and the airport rail issue
@ Gympie
Agree Dawson was not seen as being in danger it was only in the last few days of the campaign did Rudd visit Dawson. On the 2007 ABC election coverage Julia Gillard who was on panel mentioned it was in play because mining boom had brought in unionised workers and there was a demographic shift. Flynn was a brand new seat so was ripe for a big swing. Agree Caprincornia until recently was a Labor Leaning seat which the Nats only won at high tide elections.
Out of all the 2025 Labor gains, I think Sturt and Bonner would be the hardest to regain. This is pending redistributions and the new local MP and local factors. Bonner’s post-election margin is 5%.
Fair point about Dickson. Dutton narrowly retained it in 2007 on more Lib-friendly boundaries.
@Nimalan, yes. Labor has struggled in the regions as seen at the latest state and federal elections. Labor suffered big swings in Mackay, Rockhampton and Maryborough at the state election. I think for federal Labor, the Adani Carmichael backlash still lingers. Did Dutton have a lot of popularity in the regions?
@ Votante
I think i saw some polling that Nuclear power was actually popular in seats like Capricornia i think the Adani mine still lingers in most Coal seats except Shortland which is the most urbanised. Even Hunter and Paterson are still below 2016 results.
@Nimalan – comparing an election that occurred 16 years ago to what may happen in 2026 is imperfect at best and potentially deceptive at worst. Possibly, 30% of the electorate will have turned over by then. If I had all the time in the world, I would create a chart with all the seats listed and columns from 2010 to 2026. For the ones that have disappeared, I would include the subsequent seat that represents most of the area. Track the margins and margin changes from each election. Then, you can plot that out. Perhaps that has already been done, maybe even by Ben, but it would be interesting to explore. You could almost predict the seats that would be vulnerable to flipping absent local factors based on how much swing you attribute.
Nuclear might be popular or less unpopular in some individual specific areas, but I cannot see any State or Federal campaign will run on that after 2025.
The larger question that I have is, what are the Liberals doing to secure the votes of people <45? The 2PP for Millennials and Z has dropped rapidly, but their preferences have leaned heavily to the left. If we are to game out a scenario where the Liberals retake the House in 2031, the electorate will then consist of two-thirds of people who were born after 1981.
@Craig:
Adani was an issue in CAQ at the 2016 Election, that was 9 years ago last wednesday.
Nuclear Power will always be popular in CQ, it’s a jobs issue in an area that’s slowly dying. Liberals are keeping the policy as far as I know, so the opportunity is there for Labor to win an early election on the issue if they’re interested.
On the other hand, Nuclear might be a Low Emissions alternative by 2028 and Labor can run on a Nuclear platform too?
Nimalan if the libs could win niddrie and Bendigo east that would be good. Either they are in govt or labor is forced to picked new leadership after winning the election as they would be without both the incumbent leader and deputy leader.
Getting back to Bonner …
It is way under quota now (about 9%) and it is geographically hemmed in so chances of growth within the current boundaries are pretty low. With the projections added it will probably need to pick up about 15% (possibly more) voters. It could go into Bowman – less likely – so will pick up voters from Griffith and/or Rankin. And this will have lots of knock on effects into seats beyond.
Redistributed given bowman is at quota and the border is effectively the Brisbane city boundary it s more likely to move into Griffith. Rankin is also unlikely as it sits on the border of Logan.
an idea might be to put the remainder of Murarie along with Cannon Hill, Carina and Carina Heights into Bonner from Griffith.
Griffith can then take in the rest f Fairfield – Dutton Park, Annerley and Tarragindi from Moreton and Holland Park West from Bonner then Moreton can take the Mount Gravatt and Upper Mount Gravatt from Bonner.
thoughts?
Bonner’s enrolment is well below the statewide average, and therefore will need to gain territory at the upcoming QLD federal redistribution. Bowman to the east shares the same boundary with Redlands Council and its enrolment is almost at statewide average, therefore its boundary will likely remain unchanged. This means Bonner will gain territory from Griffith and Rankin where Labor’s 2PP support is much higher and LNP support is much lower, thus Labor’s margin in Bonner will increase after redistribution, preventing the LNP from regaining it for the foreseeable future, at least not before new Labor MP Kara Cook retires.
I think you mean Moreton.not rankin. Also my initial plans have it taking territory solely from Griffith. Although I had it shed some numbers to Griffith and Moreton to even it out and create a better looking seat
But agree this seat will likely not be winnable for some time. The flip side is it will mean Blair will be winnable and likely won by the lnp in 2028
@John: “I think you mean Moreton.not rankin.” You are right. It probably doesn’t make sense for Bonner to cross into the City of Logan.