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This seat wasn’t on my list of being remotely competitive however on reflection I would like Menzies and Melbourne the incumbents didn’t have favourable redistributions and were swallowed up in the Labor tidal wave. This part of Sydney has been historically hostile to Labor and in particular for the 21st century, it will be interesting to see if David Moncrieff can build a personal vote.
This definitely surprised people on election night 2025.
The last redistribution made Hughes a lot more Labor-friendly with the intake of some Campbelltown LGA suburbs. Sutherland Shire has always been known to be quite safe Liberal territory but that has changed recently. The South Coast train line suburbs from Como to Sutherland and Loftus are now quite teal-ish. It’s interesting to see that Labor won booths in Engadine and Heathcote.
There was a lot of talk about how the redistribution basically handed this seat to Labor this year, but looking at the results, booths that were in the old Hughes swung much sharper to Labor than the Macquarie Fields/Ingleburn part of the seat, which saw a lukewarm Labor result. Some of the new Hughes booths actually swung to the Liberals.
If the old boundaries were in place, Labor could’ve won on those too, or at the very least only lost by a few hundred votes.
The Macquarie Fields/Ingleburn side of the seat actually blunted the swing to Labor.