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Labor threw a significant amount of resources here and got extremely lucky despite marking not budging. I still think a seat like this will be the Liberals future to return to government along with neighbouring and nearby seats like McEwen and Bendigo.
There is a lot of population growth here so i expect a major redistribution again probably before 2031 i also think Labor is undeperforming due to local issues such as Western Highway Upgrade and Melton electrification which may be resolved by 2031.
Apparently Sam Rae is a pretty aggressive campaigner whose door knocking efforts was remarked by Kos Samaras after the election as very engaged and effective. I suspect as a minister (not under the best of circumstances mind you) he’ll probably get a lot more resources to keep this seat securely in Labor’s fold for 2028 and beyond. If Labor puts more into the electorate with investments on the Western Highway, Melton Hospital, Melton/Wyndham Vale Line electrification and accelerate their builds then they’ll hold the seat.
@ Tommo9
Both Parties commited to Western Highway upgrade. Melton Hospital is due for completion in 2029 with construction under way.
Once Metro tunnel opens next month there will be pressure for Melton/Wyndham line electrification. Metro tunnel was a pre-requisite for that.
As we speak State Labor are already removing 3 level crossings on Melton line.
https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/1.1-billion-safer-more-efficient-western-freeway
DomsAU poll has Labor vs One Nation 50/50, honestly doesn’t surprise me that much at all. However some of the DomsAU MRP polling is questionable and saying that the Liberals are going to pickup seats like Deakin, Menzies and Kooyong isn’t gonna happen in this environment.
@ SpaceFish
Hawke was discussed extensively and was seen as a seat at risk befoe 2025. I thought it would have the worst Anti-Labor swing in the country for reasons extensively discussed already. Those reasons remain, Labor had a good campaign machine which blunted any potential swing. It seems these voters have now moved beyond Liberal to ONP including soft Labor voters.
@Nimalan,
True indeed it was discussed extensively last election cycle and myself included thought Labor was going to cop a real whack in this electorate. I must admit and I think others are guilty of it too that we to write of the Labor machine in Victoria which is well oiled and seems to have over performed on numerous occasions so perhaps that should be factored in more when making predictions.
@ SpaceFish
Yes notice that Hawke overlaps with Eureka, Sunbury and Melton all seats which are target seats and where there disatification. The sitution in Holt is different it much more ethnically diverse and State Labor has done a much better role in service Delivery in SE Melbourne.
As I mentioned in a previous post, I think the Low contact intergroup threat perception could be significant especially in the older parts of Melton which is a white working class suburb with a very low university degree attainment and a median age above the national average which tends to be quite nationalist but has seen a growing number of working class non white CALD moving in which is where there will be a large resentment due to the mentioned demographics of the whites and could swing One Nation heavily.
@ Marh
I actually replied about Low Contact integroup threat. I think it occurs in working class areas but not areas like Manningham, Knox, Whitehorse, Hills District etc were ethnic relations are good.