McMahon – Australia 2028

I wonder how would One Nation perform in this seat as there is a polled RM poll released which found One Nation is performing quite high on Middle Eastern Immigrants at 17% but I think is has more to do with Middle Eastern Christians and this seat has a large Assyrian Community? I heard this seat had amongst the highest support of ONP in 2019.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10341-voting-intentions-by-country-of-birth-september-2026

@Marh
This seat has a lot of semi-rural areas which ONP will be strong. The area of St Clair/Erksine Park is Anglo and more like Lindsay it also has a lot of Southern/Eastern Europeans. I agree i think ONP may do well among Middle Eastern Christians but certainly not Muslims. SW Sydney including this seat, Fowler and Werriwa have strong Assyrian/Chaldean community. Interestingly Pakistanis have the strongest support for Greens at 32%

McMahon is undoubtedly one of the most religious seats in the country. Atheism is low and the percentage of people who follow the world’s most followed religions (Christianity, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism) is much higher than in most other seats. Overall, it is a working-class, socially conservative seat.

Scott Morrison had appeal in 2019 as he portrayed himself as a Christian man of faith, and religious values influenced swing voters. There was a fairly strong One Nation vote in 2019. The Christian Democrats got more votes here than in rural electorates that they ran in.

I’d be interested to see the correlation between religiosity and One Nation support in the current environment. If I recall correctly, back when One Nation were polling in single digits, a study found One Nation voters were less religious than voters of either major party.

@ Nicholas
in 2017 AES found One Nation were much less religius than both major parties and have much less Church attendence even for weddings and funerals than the Australian average. See article below
However, ONP as much wider support today than in 2016 and i personally feel there is also a surge of nationalist Christinity in the west. For example Tommy Robinson’s movement has used Christian symbolism and i have seen right-wing social media accounts Such as Cancelled Thoughts encouraging Christian identification. I feel think more about a clash of civilisaitons narrative than about theology and spirtuality. In many parts of the world religion and ethnic identity go hand in hand.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/27/looking-back-and-angry-what-drives-pauline-hansons-voters

I wonder how did One Nation manage to do decently in this seat in 2019 (They were Second in the Ballot List) especially around the St Clair/Erksine Park booths? On the ABS, the St Clair/Erksine Park area is very Anglo but also very Catholic (unusual for an Anglo Heavy area that is urban) so it there a potential link for this?

This seat is interesting as it often seen as an realignment seat for the Liberals and on the Alternative to the Teals pathway. In some respects it is but still some interesting points.
1. There is vitually no growth areas.new housing estates so the remaining rural areas seem to be protected Green Wedge so not really mortgage belt
2. The Erskine Park/St Clair area is more middle income Anglo area it often votes Liberal at a state level so more of a swing area
3. The Green Wedge areas are solid Blue but only make up a small part of the electorate
4. There is a suburban area West of the Cumberland Highway and South of Great Western Highway than more Middle Australia like Greystanes parts of Wetherill Park/Smithfield which are socially conservative but more Middle income which an area that Libs can appeal
5. The area East of the Cumberland Highway is very Solid Labor
6. The area in Blacktown council north of the Great Western Highway like Prospect, Doonside and Blacktown itself is pretty solid Labor but does seem to still have a significant Anglo population who maybe more receptive to the right wing.

In essense there is really only two solid area that act has as Red Wall/blocker in this seat.

@Nimalan, I wonder if this is the most Catholic Seat in the nation as even the Very Anglo Parts have a very high Catholic percentage?

@ Marh
On 2022 boundaries at the 2021 Census most Catholic seats in the country are stated below. I did a an excel sheet actually. National average is 20% in Victoria the state seat of Niddrie is most Catholic

Most Catholic seats
1. Maribyrnong 35.3%
2. McMahon 34.2%
3. Hume 28.3%
4. Lindsay 27.5%
5. Kingsford Smith 27.4%
6. Riverina 27.4%
7. Hughes 27%
8. Cook 26.7%
9. Calwell 26.6%
10 Chifley 26.2%

Least Catholic seats
1. Mayo 9.4%
2. Bass 11.2%
3. Barker 11.2%
4. Braddon 11.8%
5. Spence 12%
6. Kingston 12.4%
7.Melbourne 12.9%
8. O’Connor 13.1%
9. Lyons 13.2%
10. Grey 13.5%

South Australia and Tasmania are much less Catholic than the nation and hence less religious as well. In South Australia Sturt (22.7%) and Hindmarsh (23.5%) are most Catholic and they have above average due to Italian Community. SA was free settlers so did not get many Irish Catholics hence DLP was weak there historically

Bungarribee and Pemulwuy are in McMahon. Though they have been around for over a decade now, their demographic profiles are still similar to what you’d expect in a Western Sydney growth area.

@ Nicholas
Those two suburbs are more infill development so quite unique in this electorate