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This seat is an absolute embarrassment for the Libs. Mary Doyle maintained her by-election margin in a seat that nearly everyone wrote off for Labor. A strong candidate will be needed for the Libs to win this back. Gone are the days that this seat had a 10+% margin. Despite increasing affluence in this seat, it is also becoming more diverse and resembling nearby Chisholm especially Glen Waverley. Voting patterns reflect this. The Libs won’t be able to think of forming even a minority government without winning this seat back. Alarm bells should have been ringing within the Libs about Dutton’s electability when they lost this seat in the by-election.
Dutton was on track to win this back at the general election until the disaster of the campaign. The by election loss can be attributed to the loss of the sitting members personal vote, the liberal parachute and the fact labor was up in the polls at that point.
After the 2019 election, Peta Credlin was correct in predicting that seats like Kooyong may cease to be Liberal heartland and future leadership will not come from seats like Kooyong. She actually said Aston was their new jewel and that future leaders would come from seats like Aston she named Alan Tudge as a future leader. It is a bit harder for future Liberal leader to come from Aston when it is held by a Labor Left MP who is a former union official.
Mary Doyle is well liked throughout the electorate and despite Labor headquarters not helping her out and leaving her to fend for herself she has prevailed against the odds. Honestly, I would say Labor hold until she decides to retire or some serious controversy.
Mary Doyle is very active and she visted many schools, sporting clubs for example during prestation night. I actually met her when taking my nephew to a school fete at St Lukes Primary, Wantirna. I think by attending such events she is building a personal brand.