Holt – Australia 2028

Interesting to see that on these boundaries Labor would have lost this seat in 2004 on these boundaries. The population growth which countries to sprawl further down south in this electorate should benefit Labor in the term however if there were to be rate rises or some sort of serious economic pain Labor might have be in a bit of trouble.

The type of urbanisation is key here too, I was told recently that new house/land packages in Clyde are explicitly marketed at south asian migrants, Fernando has likely done a good job working these communities, the mortgage belt nationwide swung heavily to Labor as they regained the economic narrative during the campaign. The original margin here might also have been artificially low as in Bruce due to lockdown anger and also the retiring member being associated with branch stacking

@ SpaceFish
The Coastal hamlets of Tooradin, Blind Bight, Cannons Creek are protected from development as they are in the Green Wedge so will not see much demographic change in those areas. ONP did well in those communities and i expect those booths to remain Blue.
You are also correct that this seat would have been lost in 2004 which was Labor’s second worst election in Victoria at a Federal level since 1977 with the notable exception of 1990. That election was the interest rates campaign along with Scoresby Tollway. Doveton was in Holt and saved Labor then. Fast Forward to now as @Maxim is correct the urbanisation here is helping Labor due to ethnic diversification especially around Clyde. Holt is one of few electorates in the country that had a better result for Voice than the Republic the ethnic diversfication probably explains this. If the ethnic demographics were the same as 2004 this seat could have become like Lindsay. I also accept @Maxim point orginial margin was probably artificationally low in 2022 as in Bruce due to lockdown anger so part of the swing could be a correction.

Nimalan and Maxim, would you say that this area (based around Clyde and Cranbourne) is similar to the federal seat of Greenway with its growth area in outer Blacktown Council centered around newly developed suburbs such as Rouse Hill and The Ponds?

I believe both places have increasing numbers of CALD minorities (mostly from Indian/South Asian backgrounds) and that is resulting in both seats and regions trending more towards Labor.

Greenway has generally retained its configuration with only minor changes, and during the early 21st Century it was considered less diverse and thus had better conditions for the Liberals to win (which they did in 2004, with Louise Markus).

@ Yon An, i certainly think there is comparisons with parts of Greenway and i think La Trobe as that as well Officer/Clyde North etc
That is one challenge for future Liberal leaders if they want to map out a scenario without Teal seats. Is that these voters are less like Howard Battlers who were mortgage belt, European Aspirational, Non Teritary educated who live in Outer Suburbs raising families. Voters in Holt, Greenway etc are aspirational, mortgage belt live in Outer Suburbs but the tend to be teritary educated and Non European. A seat like Pearce on the other hand has what could be Hastie/Taylor Battlers which will be millenials who are White, Non Teritary educated, purchasing homes, aspirational, raising families in Outer Suburbs. That is why of the 2022 losses Pearce, Hasluck are the most likely to return to Liberals.

@Nimalan Holt would’ve been the ideal hotspot for Liberal momentum during the Scomo years, given that Morrison, as much as he lurched to the right, tried to avoid making culture wars a big thing. Dutton on the other hand leaned into it and basically blew their chances in seats like Holt, Bruce, Greenway and got super close to losing La Trobe, Berowra and Mitchell (of all seats).

As for the WA comparisons, Pearce is likely to be the most vulnerable but transportation and accessibility has improved in the last five years (with the extension of the Joondalup Line to Yanchep), whilst in Hasluck that seat is now purely urban after Bullwinkel was created, and the Ellenbrook line opening recently has shored up Labor support. That seat won’t be lost even in a landslide where the likes of Pearce, Moore and Bullwinkel flips.

Agree Tommo about Morrison being more modest compared with Dutton. He was probably like Tony Abbott being from the right faction and attempting to focus the Coalition’s priority more on economic issues especially with the stage 3 tax cuts.

The combined impacts of covid and the bushfires during 2020-21 probably sealed Morrison’s fate, given that the big swings to Labor were in selected seats (inner city and WA ones only). Without these factors being present, Morrison could have secured another narrow victory in 2022 similar to John Howard in 2004.

That is probably why the 2025 election could be seen as the true start of a new Labor government given that is the election Labor won more of the traditional swing/bellwether seats which they failed to secure in 2022.

@ Tommo9
I do agree that Scomo especially in 2019 could have appealed here. I agree WA Labor has done a good job with PT and Hasluck is much better boundary wise. The reason i put thise seats is that I feel when the Tide eventually changes Outer Suburban White voters will be easier to win back than CALD voters. Labor has infrastucture problems in Gorton so is underperfoming but growth in Ethnic communities is providing a Cushion if you look at booth results in Gorton/Hawke it is the newer estates with ethnic communities that are swinging to Labor.
Anyway i have replied to you in the Flinders thread as well.