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I think this seat will be compeitative for One Nation it is a white Battler seat. Of the 2016 gains for Labor i think this seat, Paterson and Lyons are competative for ONP. However, i think Lyons a personal vote and local politics matter more. ONP will not appeal to Burt, Macarthur and Cowan as they are fast diverisfying seats.
The latest Redbridge Accent MRP poll shows this as almost lineball and slightly favouring One Nation. The southern end, near Gosford, is diversifying with more commuter belt residents and public servants moving in. The rest of the seat could be swingy.
I believe Paterson and Hunter are the most at risk Labor seats in NSW.
Hard to see how this cannot be a serious One Nation target. Very white, lots of retirees, not very wealthy, a tad shabby and some remnants of coal mining and power station workers. I hate to use comparisons but it is reminiscent of a very large Rosebud and Rye – the poorer shabbier parts of Flinders / Nepean – and we know that they were keen to vote for One Nation.