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This will be another interesting contest in 2028. Of the 7 seats I thought the Greens had a chance in (including the four they had already held), only Richmond and Wills saw primary vote swings go to the Greens.
It’s been alluded to on the Ballina NSW 2027 thread that, while Ballina City itself is more of a contest between Labor and the Nationals, once you travel north into Lennox Head, Byron Bay, Mullumbimby, etc, the voting patterns turn emerald green. Then it evens out once you get to Tweed Heads again.
This would be one of the seats where the Greens would be damaged in if an expansion of parliament occurred, as it’s likely that the Greens bases of support here would be divided across multiple seats.
i think its time for the nats to step aside and let the liberal have a crack at this one. the nats would be better off having a go at eden monaro and Gilmore. and possibly Farrer is Susan Ley retires.
@CJ if parliament were to expand it would ose Nat voting Ballina the greens would be hurt in that it might become a GRN v LAB contest in which case the coalition would prop up labor.
@ CJ
What was the 7th seat you thought Greens had a shot in?
One Problem with this seat is that there is not enough centrist swing voters in Byron Shire so all the Centrist voters are in Tweed and Ballina Shire so Coalition needs to win massive margins in Ballina and Tweed Shire to overcome the fact that Byron Shire is Emerald Green not a shade of teal.
@nimalan either Footscray or Macnamara id say
Fraser*
Issue with the Nats stepping aside is that the state branches still support a sitting NAT member and typically the NATs run candidates that make the 2PP/2CP in Ballina and Lismore (having held both until fairly recently too)
Can imagine it might cause organisational issues at the local level?
Well they can let the Libs run in Richmond because of FPV. So any votes come back anyway.unlinke state voting where there is OPV. The trade would be to allow.nats to run.in Gilmore and Eden monaro.
@Nimalan my 7 seats were: Brisbane, Griffith, Macnamara, Melbourne, Richmond, Ryan, Wills.
Cool thanks CJ
MacNamara is interesting as it would have depended on Labor being knocked out like Richmond as both seats have too strong Coalition vote if they are ALP v GRN seats. Greens talked up Sturt Moreton and Perth and wasted resources I was sceptical they had a chance in any of those 3
The gap in 3CP between Labor and the Greens is 3%. Let’s say Justine Elliott retires and the seat is up for grabs. The Greens would probably go all in on campaigning. I wonder if it would encourage Nationals or right-wing voters to vote tactically for Labor to prevent the Greens from winning it. For Labor to win, at the minimum, they’d need to finish ahead of the Nats or the Greens. Finishing behind both on the 3CP count means Labor losing the seat.
@Nimalan no problems. I didn’t think they were within a shot in any other seat. They tend to talk up their chances a fair bit, but as we’ve seen in both Queensland last year and federally this year, the results just didn’t pull off.
@Votante the Nationals have finished 3rd here the last two elections, but they’ve coasted to the 2CP by preferences from minor parties. Nearly 12% of the vote alone this year was locked up in various right-wing minor parties, and that’s not accounting for the obscure independent vote either. They’ve definitely been able to capitalise on preferential voting in this seat.
I also don’t see why the Liberals shouldn’t run here. I know that the Nats will be disheartened if the Liberals run but they haven’t won this seat in decades. The electoral dynamics don’t favour the Nationals because of the Green support bases of Byron Shire and nearby towns e.g. Lennox Head. Tourism and hospitality and health and social services are big industries in Ballina and Tweed.
@CJ, yes. The right-wing vote was split in 2022 and 2025 thanks to various right-wing minor parties and independents. The preference flows were consistent enough for the Nats to finish first in the 3CP count.
The last time both Coalition parties ran here was 2010. Their vote was cut almost clean down the middle; the Nationals got 21% of the vote, the Liberals got 19%.
I expect due to the urbanisation of both Ballina and Tweed Heads that the Liberals could fare better than the Nats if both ran.