To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
The Gorton and Spencer by-election in the UK has convinced me that in seats like this many working class Muslims in they are angry will choose left-wing parties if they are angry with Labor such as VS or Greens rather than Right wing politics. Even though UK Labor also recognised Palestine at the same time as Albanese the UK Greens still made this an issue and were succesful. I feel the Palestine issue has not gone away and Protests for Palestine have been held since.
*gorton and Denton
@Nimalan, I looked Wikipedia and the seat is polarised between the heavily white working class parts like Denton and Pakistani heavy Longsight. Although you also have to take into account Keir Starmer is also a in very unpopular position compared to Albanese, Green Party leader Zack Polanski ran a charismatic campaign and a strong tactical voting campaign to avoid Reform winning the seat.
@ Marh
I agree with the points you mentioneds all valid. My point was alluding to the fact that many commentators in 2022 said Muslims maybe part of the realignment theory and the 2022 Anti-Labor swing was evidence Muslims could join the bandwagon along with White Working Class. It is for the same reason i dont think Greenvale is a good focus seat for state Liberals even if Jacinta Allan is unpopular Muslims in the seat may choose Victorian Socialists or Greens etc while the Italian community in the seat of Greenvale in the wealthier parts may swing to right, Muslims will swing to the Left
For the time being Labor should hold seats like this and similar however if the Greens were to poll in the low to mid 20’s nationally then they could be in serious trouble here but if Gaza is a major issue then I could see the Greens definitely winning Wills.
If Basem Abdo performs, he could get a sophomore surge and fewer competitors running. Since the seat was vacant in 2025, there were over a dozen candidates, some of which wanted to tap into the pro-Gaza vote or disaffected vote. The bear case is that Labor’s popularity from 2025 is waning.