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The Gorton and Spencer by-election in the UK has convinced me that in seats like this many working class Muslims in they are angry will choose left-wing parties if they are angry with Labor such as VS or Greens rather than Right wing politics. Even though UK Labor also recognised Palestine at the same time as Albanese the UK Greens still made this an issue and were succesful. I feel the Palestine issue has not gone away and Protests for Palestine have been held since.
*gorton and Denton
@Nimalan, I looked Wikipedia and the seat is polarised between the heavily white working class parts like Denton and Pakistani heavy Longsight. Although you also have to take into account Keir Starmer is also a in very unpopular position compared to Albanese, Green Party leader Zack Polanski ran a charismatic campaign and a strong tactical voting campaign to avoid Reform winning the seat.
@ Marh
I agree with the points you mentioneds all valid. My point was alluding to the fact that many commentators in 2022 said Muslims maybe part of the realignment theory and the 2022 Anti-Labor swing was evidence Muslims could join the bandwagon along with White Working Class. It is for the same reason i dont think Greenvale is a good focus seat for state Liberals even if Jacinta Allan is unpopular Muslims in the seat may choose Victorian Socialists or Greens etc while the Italian community in the seat of Greenvale in the wealthier parts may swing to right, Muslims will swing to the Left
For the time being Labor should hold seats like this and similar however if the Greens were to poll in the low to mid 20’s nationally then they could be in serious trouble here but if Gaza is a major issue then I could see the Greens definitely winning Wills.
If Basem Abdo performs, he could get a sophomore surge and fewer competitors running. Since the seat was vacant in 2025, there were over a dozen candidates, some of which wanted to tap into the pro-Gaza vote or disaffected vote. The bear case is that Labor’s popularity from 2025 is waning.
This seat has some comparisons to Spence as both once had car manufacturing in the case of Calwell it was the Ford Broadmeadows plant. One critical difference is ethnicity. Calwell only has 35% of its population who speak English at home the 5th lowest in Australia and the lowest outside NSW. On the otherhand in Spence-75% speak English at home more than double that of Calwell. In 2022, many thought a multi-racial realignment was possible to move such seats to the right. Today Australia is more ethnically/religiously divided since possibly the mid 2000s during the Cronulla riots etc and Islamaphobia is much higher than in 2022.
The Greens as well as Vic Socialists appear better at tapping into the disaffected, anti-major party vote in CALD, working class, traditionally Labor seats compared to minor parties on the right. Calwell in 2025 was an exception due to strong independent campaigns. One Nation’s brand of nationalism doesn’t appeal much to such a community. A big part of the appeal of the Greens in a seat like Calwell is their anti-war stance.
I think the Middle Eastern conflicts has become a greater factor in recent times because people feel the pinch following the oil price shock and limited availability of petrol. This has hit the outer suburban, working class who see fuel as a larger percentage of their household budget, who are less likely to WFH and have less accessibility to public transport.