Hume – Australia 2028

Hume is right at the edge of metropolitan Sydney and is where the growing mortgage belt meets semi-rural areas.

There is a demographic shift east of The Northern Road (Leppington, Oran Park, Harrington Park) where there are new greenfield housing estates and a growing mortgage belt. The demographic centre of the electorate is shifting towards this area. Voters are more likely to vote Green than One Nation. The demographics are favouring Labor longer-term.

In the southern and western parts, the semi-rural nature and historic small towns and villages see stronger support for the Liberals. One Nation also does better here than in the newer suburbs.

@ Votante
Harrington Park is more Estabalished which is why it is more Liberal voting with a higher median age. I do agree tht Oran Park, Leppington and Bringelly will be mortgage belt battlegrounds though. Rossmore and Bringelly are still rural but with a rail extention i expect it to change quickly. I just looked at the 2010 Macathur guide Narellan Vale had the biggest swing for any booth in NSW in both 1996 and 2007 but it did not really swing mich a 0.6% swing in 2022 to Libs against state trend while in 2022 change of governmet it was 6% so maybe once these suburbs become established it is getting more Conservative

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/election-2010/macarthur

*0.6 swing to Libs in 2025 i mean

I’m not convinced that Taylor becoming leader is going to solve the Liberals woes, it will be interesting to see if he has the numbers.

There’s mention from the party that Taylor is one or two votes short of winning. I think there some Liberal MPs who aren’t too keen on Ley but wouldn’t want her to go so soon to save face or to minimise instability.

@Nimalan, Harrington Park has a lot of young families and mortgage holders in some parts. Elderslie is another new growth suburb.

Angus as leader is s blessing for Labor. He gives the impression that he considers himself as entitled and is lazy.

Angus Taylor has resigned from the frontbench, leadership challenge likely incoming.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-11/angus-taylor-resigns-from-frontbench/106332492

Changing leader is only going worsen things for the Liberals, also its likely if Taylor can’t turn things around he’ll be rolled as leader by Hastie.

It’s like same horse but different jockey unless Taylor can turn things around, reconcile with the Nationals and make the Liberals stand for something. I think there’s a genuine fear in the party that ex-Coalition voters could be lost permanently if they don’t improve their standing.

Should taylor win then ley may pull.the.plug and cause a by-election.
There is a real chance the libs may lose the seat to.the nats or independent

Angus Taylor has won the Liberal leadership – 34 to 17. Jane Hume has won the deputy leadership.

I’ve been looking at recent opinion polling. There has been minimal shift in polling to the Coalition since the leadership spill. It’s been two and a bit weeks so it still might be early days. On the plus side, net approval of Taylor has been better than Ley’s. This also coincided with Albanese’s sliding popularity. Some of the preferred PM ratings now include Hanson coming second.

Niki Savva said in a podcast that if Taylor had run for the leadership in May 2025 without a joint ticket with Senator Price, he likely would’ve gotten it. Maybe he would’ve minimised the slide in support to One Nation.

The question is whether Angus Taylor would abandon or water down multiculturalism? At this point of time Angus Taylor doesn’t seem to be changing this as evident with Taylor recently attending the Chinese New Year festival in Box Hill (in Melbourne) but doing so might have made recent Coalition – One Nation Voters still reluctant to come home to Coalition given the current environment is that anti-multiculturalism has united Australian Conservative Camp (except for the Liberal Party of course) since March for Australia rallies and Bondi Attack.

@ Marh
As i mentioned in the Oxley thread. I feel Multiculturalism has already been waterdown from the Keating era when it was rights-based and seen as inherent in a New Australian identity. Today is it seen as conditional and a privelege for CALD communities if they have seen as accepting “Australian Values” etc. I think this already started post 9/11 and especially after the Cronilla riots. I can see even Hastie attending a Chinese New Year festival but there message would be different rather than saying Australia is the most succesful multicultural country the message would we “I would like to which the Chinese Community in Australia and around the world a very Happy New Year. I hope you celebrate this important day with friends and family and may the year ahead bring good health, love and prosperity.” The message would probably not use the word multicultural. I feel Harmony Day will be a target rather than Chinese New year, Hannukah, Diwali or even Eid. Steve Christou had a Ramadan message on his instagram.

A thorn in the Liberal side would be speculation of forming a coalition agreement, or doing deals, or at the minimal, a preference swap with One Nation. There are some hints from both sides. If Liberals are seen as too One Nation-like, it could work against them.

I think the impact on the Liberals in moderate or small-L liberal seats is a bit overlooked. Examples of formerly safe Liberal, now marginal or tossup seats include Bradfield, Berowra, Kooyong and Goldstein. In these electorates, the minor right-wing (ONP, TOP/UAP etc) is small to begin with. There’s little electoral gain from a preference swap for either the Liberals or One Nation.

Putting multiculturalism aside, moderate or small-L liberals likely have views on climate change, social issues and economic liberalism that are quite at odds with One Nation. They wouldn’t be so willing to preference One Nation so highly.

How Angus Taylor handles immigration will be interesting if he does not cut the ONP vote on it then Hastie will come after him. Advance Australia has been running ads on ISIS Brides and attacking Mass Migration there latest add focuses a lot of Muslim immigration

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WQsNxrjvk3k

Another ad from Advance Australia blaming immigration for housing shows a White family moving out of their home and a Muslim family moving in

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HFCAS-gfpbc

The latest Redbridge Accent MRP poll points to Angus Taylor losing his seat to One Nation. I think this is a tossup and can go either way.

There are some factors that might help:
1. East of The Northern Road (Leppington, Oran Park, Harrington Park) are greenfield housing estates and diversifying population. It is popular with migrants from South Asia. The area is becoming less rural with urban sprawl and the new international airport. This would shift voting to the left a bit.
2. The leader’s boost. It is possible that his name recognition and high-profile could save him.

Whether or not he remains as leader till the next election is another story. One advantage he has that Sussan Ley didn’t is the lack of leadership rivals.

@Vontante – the electorate shifting left slightly might ultimately hurt Taylor more as it ensures Labor stays in the count until the 2CP, leaving Taylor with no opportunity to use what would have been a major preference source against ONP

If it’s clear by mid-late 2027 that Taylor has no prospect of becoming PM he will either be ousted or lose this seat IMO

I oddly think that Hume could have gone Labor if boundaries hadn’t changed so this will be an interesting seat to watch

@Maxim, I can’t remember who said this (might have been Tony Barry or Barrie Cassidy on their podcast) – Taylor would possibly lose this seat by getting to third place and the contest becoming ONP vs ALP. It could happen if there’s a 20% primary vote swing away from him and ONP overtakes him. Meanwhile, the Labor vote falls a bit but is helped by the Greens preferences.

Wollondilly LGA and the semi-rural outskirts of Camden and Liverpool LGAs would be most likely to see ONP topping the primary vote.

Yes I would agree with them

I personally feel that Angus Taylor will not be the leader a the 2028 election. i will feel he is more of a placeholder. He appears unsure on the monoculture versus multiculturalism debate. I feel Hastie may not want the leadership at this moment and may want to see how this debate plays out first. Tony Barry also says he feels that this will be a 3 leader term.

@Nimalan, I think Hastie playing a role for the Ben Roberts Smith case has denied his pathway to win back One Nation Voters with One Nation and pro-BRS people mounting a massive campaign against him but he would likely still not have any appeal from moderate voters either.

@ Marh
I agree the BRS issue will hurt Hastie as most right wing commentators including people like Drew Pavlou are Pro-BRS and if he becomes leader this will get a lot more attention. There are also reports that Tony Abbott is Pro-BRS so this will likely cause tensions as well within the Liberal party.

I also am unsure if Angus Taylor will lead the party to the next election. The federal budget was unpopular and highly criticised and Taylor hardly landed any blows. He was elected as leader to turnaround dire poll numbers under Sussan Ley but it seems like they’re worse now. One thing that’s saving him is the lack of challengers.

I’m not sure if BRS is even an issue for the typical LNP to ONP swing voter. I do think ONP see Hastie as a potential threat to them. Hastie has accused ONP of a smear campaign and has gotten extra security.

@ Votante
I think the BRS issues animinates right wing social media and perhaps Sky After Dark as well so i can see this bringing him unnessary attaention to counter this he will probably have to move further right on multiculturalism etc. I do agree that all else being equal ONP fears him more than they feared Angus Taylor or Susasn Ley so while it may not be an issue for atypical LNP to ONP swing voteri feel BRS is becoming a culture war if you look at what Drew Pavlou, Steve Christou, Cancelled throughts etc say, i feel Post Bondi BRS has been Idealised as society has become more nationalist and i think it is part of the Clash of Civilisations narrative. It is also why Karl Stefanovic interview with Tommy Robinson has won him praise in nationalist social media platforms.

@Nimalan
I also believe that the BRS energises the right-wing, nationalist base and social media ecosystem. Even Tony Abbott, the Liberal party’s federal president, has jumped into defending him. This issue could be the wedge between the Liberals and Hastie’s prospects to become leader.

If Liberals see oblivion coming and there’s nothing to save them, a possibility is that Taylor retires and they put up a federal version of Zak Kirkup, otherwise someone who could save some furniture.