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This seat should be a safe hold/retain for Labor, even if sitting MP Mike Freelander chooses to retire in 2028.
Most of the seat is now Campbelltown council and generally consists of established suburbs instead of new estates which have been moved into adjacent Hume.
Greens have done really well in Campbelltown.
This was on the liberal hit list in 2025 b u t they screwed that up
@Yoh An – as a Macarthur resident myself, agreed. Mike Freelander is a very hard-working MP and has built up a strong reputation in the community, especially with his background as a pediatrician. Even if he retires, Labor is certain to retain, and the representatives in the Campbelltown area (Freelander, Greg Warren, Darcy Lound) are quite popular that the Labor brand here has improved substantially.
Long gone are the days when Russell Matheson and Pat Farmer held the seat, and when Glen Alpine voted 60%+ Liberal, Ruse and some of the Bradbury & Campbelltown booths were Liberal, and even when Rosemeadow and Leumeah were marginal suburbs (2013 results FYI).
@SpaceFish – astute observation there. The Greens did do quite well especially in the more CALD and low-income parts of Campbelltown and the public housing suburbs. I do question if they will keep the momentum up as I know there was a decent protest vote due to Palestine, only time will tell.
There is very little of Camden left on these boundaries and while the margin is inflated due to Mike Freelander popularity, i think Labor can still retain even in a 2013 style defeat on current boundaries Labor would have got only 48% TPP in 2013 but the Labor brand is quite stronger in Campbelltown council also the area has diversified rapidly especially growth of the Bangladeshi community which helps Labor.
The Camden part is mainly greenfield housing estates.
The Labor vote was helped in 2025 thanks to a Liberal unpopularity and poor campaigning as well as an uptick in the Greens vote. The Greens picked up swings in suburbs where there is a larger Muslim and/or low socioeconomic demographic.
@Nimalan, Macarthur and Barton are two seats that Labor couldn’t win at the 2013 wipeout but would survive a future wipeout. Their margins are high and the electoral demographics have changed since.
@ Votante
I agree Camden is Greenfield housing estates and the booth margin in Camden part are inflated and can swing violently when there is a swing
RE Barton on the current boundaries Labor would have still won it on the 2013 results accroding to Ben’s greenline on the chart. I concur if the results were repeated statewide Barton on current boundaries has densified. Most of the waterfront low density suburbs have been removed. If the 2013 boundaries are somehow resurrected one day and there is a wipeout election for Labor there are two trends in oppositie direction. Low density waterfront housing is much more expensive than in 2013 and those suburbs are wealthier now. The Greek/Macedonian communities have intergenerational wealth. However, growth in Chinese & Muslim communities in other parts of the seat will make it more challenging than in 2013 along with higher density along railway corridor.
The seat called. MACARTHUR of past times was a marginal seat,this seat if not safe Labor but at least reliable Labor.
@Nimalan, Barton and Macarthur were easy Labor pickups in 2016. They were just hugely redistributed and Labor had strong candidates too. Also, the Liberals were on a backslide following their 2013 peak.
Macarthur used to much larger and covered more semi-rural and peri-urban areas south and west before 2016. Add to that, there has been a lot of urban sprawl and new greenfield estates in the current Macarthur.
@ Votante
I agree 2013 was a peak for Coalition in NSW in fact statewide they overperformed 1996 and even 1975 in terms of TPP. Only Harold Holt 1966 landlside had a bigger statewide TPP
Macarthur has also changed radically since it was created 30 years ago it even had beaches. I would not be surprised if it is radically redrawn again in a future redistribution but i agree on current boundaries it is trending Labor.