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This will be another interesting contest in 2028. Of the 7 seats I thought the Greens had a chance in (including the four they had already held), only Richmond and Wills saw primary vote swings go to the Greens.
It’s been alluded to on the Ballina NSW 2027 thread that, while Ballina City itself is more of a contest between Labor and the Nationals, once you travel north into Lennox Head, Byron Bay, Mullumbimby, etc, the voting patterns turn emerald green. Then it evens out once you get to Tweed Heads again.
This would be one of the seats where the Greens would be damaged in if an expansion of parliament occurred, as it’s likely that the Greens bases of support here would be divided across multiple seats.
i think its time for the nats to step aside and let the liberal have a crack at this one. the nats would be better off having a go at eden monaro and Gilmore. and possibly Farrer is Susan Ley retires.
@CJ if parliament were to expand it would ose Nat voting Ballina the greens would be hurt in that it might become a GRN v LAB contest in which case the coalition would prop up labor.
@ CJ
What was the 7th seat you thought Greens had a shot in?
One Problem with this seat is that there is not enough centrist swing voters in Byron Shire so all the Centrist voters are in Tweed and Ballina Shire so Coalition needs to win massive margins in Ballina and Tweed Shire to overcome the fact that Byron Shire is Emerald Green not a shade of teal.
@nimalan either Footscray or Macnamara id say
Fraser*
Issue with the Nats stepping aside is that the state branches still support a sitting NAT member and typically the NATs run candidates that make the 2PP/2CP in Ballina and Lismore (having held both until fairly recently too)
Can imagine it might cause organisational issues at the local level?
Well they can let the Libs run in Richmond because of FPV. So any votes come back anyway.unlinke state voting where there is OPV. The trade would be to allow.nats to run.in Gilmore and Eden monaro.