Farrer – Australia 2028

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20 COMMENTS

  1. I wonder if Michelle Milthorpe will run here and if she’ll be able to cut through that bit further. If Lee is still leader when the next election is over she’ll have to be out of the seat so if electorate doesn’t rally behind here she could be in trouble. If Lee is dumped as leader and retires I expect the Liberals will lose this and either the independent or Nationals will win it.

  2. She says she will. I’d say the libs would retain here its too urban for the Nats. In fact the libs might get a swing too them without Ley.

  3. Ley will get a a juicy pension when she retires. At this rate, I don’t see her becoming the PM. If she gets dumped this term, I’d expect her to retire from politics.

    Interestingly, the independent candidate in 2025 won the 2CP at all booths in Sussan Ley’s hometown of Albury. She even beat Ley on primary votes at some booths in Albury. It’s not surprising since there is normally a strong primary vote for Labor and the Greens in Albury.

    I doubt a teal candidate would win this. Other than Albury, most of the electorate depends on carbon-intensive primary industries.

  4. In a way it’s unfortunate that electorates have to be contained to state boundaries, because clearly Albury shares a very strong community of interest with Wodonga and they would be well served by a mostly urban seat based on the wider Albury-Wodonga region, rather than this expansive rural seat. Given how rural it is, surely Nats would win a by-election.

  5. You could make arguments for ditching state boundaries as boundaries for electorates. Albury-Wodonga and the Gold Coast-Tweed Heads are similar communities, but they’re represented way differently.

    However, when we get into the process of redistributions, that’s where it gets tricky.

  6. CJ, the issue of major urban areas crossing state borders is not a unique one to Australia. In the US, there are many examples of metropolitan areas which cross multiple state borders (most notably New York City with suburban areas that extend into adjacent New Jersey, but others like Cincinnati-Covington which straddles Ohio and Kentucky and Kansas City which straddles Kansas and Missouri). In all these cases, congressional districts cannot cross state borders and thus these urban areas will be disjoined.

  7. Adam as a resident i can assure you this would be a lib vs ind seat. Most of the population is contained in Albury. Corowa or Griffith.

    Cj the difference is albury wodonga is seperatedated by and island and river. Gold Coast is not near Tweed Heads its about 30-40 minutes away. It’s coolangatta thats near Tweed Heads. You can literally walk between them. You can stand in coolangatta and Tweed at the same time. During daylight savings you can be in two different time zones.

  8. Cross border seats would never happen as the seats are divided by state with each state being entitled to a certain. Umber of seats.

  11. I can’t confidently comment on whether Liberals will improve when Ley leaves, but an election (or by-election) without her could worsen Coalition relations and expose grievances between the Liberals and Nationals. I remember Anthony Green stating how the Nationals hated losing it in 2001 and are likely to contest Farrer. I’d also point out how the Nationals have become more emboldened, so them gunning for Farrer at the expense of the Liberals doesn’t seem out of the ordinary.

    Imo, that race is likely to become incredibly messy race between the Liberals, Nationals (I’d assume they’d run someone with a high profile like Perin Davey) and Michelle Milthorpe.

  12. @lurking it wont an unoccupied seat is fair game under the coalition agreement. they are both free to contest any seat that doesnt have a sitting coalition member. tbh i think ley has been dragging tdown the lib vote here. I for one will be still voting One Nation. (honestly its to help them out financially as they wont win the seat but they get $ per first preference.) outside of that i will wait until the candidates are announced should she retire before deciding which one to back.

  13. Let’s say One Nation’s vote increases (maybe Labor’s too by a bit) at the expense of the Liberals. If both Liberals and Nationals contest and a teal independent contests, it could create a vote-splitting scenario.

  16. @John December 5, 2025 at 10:09 am
    I am aware an unoccupied seat is fair game, but there’s no guarantee that there won’t be some grievances aired out during the campaign. I suspect some mudslinging will have to happen because Liberals are not going to idle stand by and the Nationals have a two decades old score to settle. In addition these parties will have to have to make themselves appear to be the better option.

  17. Yes but Ley needs to retire first. Secondly the nats and libs are not gonna risk giving the seat to a teal. They would rather a peaceful campaign in which one of them wins then a civil war that’s drives people to the teal. I suspect the nats will win this seat if they contest. This seat is a lot more regional then Indi. I for one will be voting on merit. 1. One nation 2&3 lib/nat. Teal last. Greens second last.

  18. There are several unknowns. Ley might even still be the leader come the next election to everyone’s surprise.

    If there’s a leadership spill this term and she loses, I reckon she’d retire as would some of her disappointed close supporters. It’s like how Gillard and her close allies retired in 2013 after Rudd retook the leadership. She might retire the next day.